LTA's NBA Plays

[hangtime]

Any bettors checking this forum with TAB Sportsbet account? (Australia) Well if you like Atlanta you can get the ATL+4.5 Total <189.5 double right now at +250 ($3.50) Looks like they made a mistake because the game total alone is set at 182.5. So with LTA setting the total at 179 that's too good value for me to pass up. Lets get it. GL all.

yes. thank you dave. on my way tho the tab now. hopefully they wont recognize this error til after i place my wager.

[aussieH]

Thanks Mate. I am on it but I like Orlando. Maybe we should be taking both and the under

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/10/2012

Play #1

Heat/Wizards over (198.5) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under pretty heavy here at 199.5 all the way at -123 and my local is posting 198.5. I'm going to gamble a little bit here and lock this is now because I expect some over money to hit tomorrow morning. I have this game set at 202.5 and I expect a closer at 200 or more. We have two teams that rank top 10 in PACE and have a nice history of playing fast paced, high scoring games. Miami is a juggernaut, but is playing a 3 in 4, although they are coming off a day of rest. Nevertheless, after losing to Orlando with a mediocre offensive performance, I expect Miami to come out running and looking to really run up the score. However, Washington will be motivated for this game and generally plays the upper echelon teams competitively, only to concede in the end. If you look at some of the scores against other top level and/or big name teams, you will see a correlation with the over: (i) against Orlando 212 points; (ii) against NY 200 and 195; (iii) Houston, Denver, OKC all between 207 and 220 points; (iv) against Boston 194 and 192; etc. It seems that Washington gets a little extra motivated to ramp up their scoring against the better teams, but there defense is so porous that they can't stop anyone and these games end up on the higher scoring side. In this game, I expect Wall to come motivated against the Heat and Wittman wants to play more up-tempo, so I think Wall ends up pushing the pace more and more. I would not be surprised to see the Heat score 110 or more in this one as my model has the Heat at 108.7 and the Wiz at 94.1. However, those numbers are based on the stats alone and when you look at some of the common motivational factors, I think both teams could eclipse those numbers. The Heat might just be fatigued enough to slack a little bit on defense so they can really rack up the points on offense. As I mentioned above, I have this game set at 202.5 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Hawks/Magic under (183) 1x (Locked)

I also have a lean to the Hawks in this game, but I'm jumping on the under now as I love this one at 183. You have two teams that know each other very well and will be playing with playoff-like intensity similar to the Lakers/Celts game yesterday. Another similarity is the slow tempo with both teams ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in PACE. If you look at the possession numbers, you see that both teams also rank bottom 10 in possessions per game with an offensive effective possession rating which are bottom 1/3 of the league. Both teams are not good on the offensive boards, ranked in the bottom 11 of ORB%, but excel on the defensive rebounding side with a DRB% top 10 in the league. Finally, when you look at the offensive strengths of each team in comparison to the defensive strengths, I see both offensives getting neutralized. Orland depends on the 3 pointer to win, but Atlanta has a respectable perimeter defense from beyond the arc where they only give up about 6 three pointers a game which is 6th in the league, an opponent three point rate also rated 6th and they only allow 34% shooting on the trey. On the other hand, Atlanta has a balanced attack but will have to contend with the #2 team for opponent points in the paint in Orlando who has similarly rated perimeter defense to that of the Hawks. I have this game set at 179 giving us 4 full points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Jazz (+1) 1x (Locked)

Was hoping to get a better number, but it never materialized. I am jumping on the jazz now in this situational spot that I have been eyeing for days. Writeup to come. Good luck.

[Kurtz]

Lakers just jumped from -3.5 to -4.5

[Catchn_Picks]

I was able to get +2 on the Jazz this morning I assume looking at the same situational projection...OKC at the end of a long road trip...late game antics last night...only one night off during the road trip...going to higher elevation.

Looks real good to me LTA...I just need to up the wager a bit with the +1 now.

BOL

[Dexter]

Play #3

Jazz (+1) 1x (Locked)

Was hoping to get a better number, but it never materialized. I am jumping on the jazz now in this situational spot that I have been eyeing for days. Writeup to come. Good luck.

on it big myself, and wanted to go heavier but okc losing last night scares me. if the jazz win this game, they are going to get waxed in okc next week playing 4in5, btbtb vs a rested thunder team.

[Catchn_Picks]

Flash...Bet US has +2 back up if any of you have an account. It doesn't show on SBR lines but it is still there. Very good line!

[Speedy88]

Jazzzzz

[hangtime]

Thanks Mate. I am on it but I like Orlando. Maybe we should be taking both and the under

i took both minus and plus lines with the under 189.5. looks nice to me. i love it.

[Donnie Brasco]

i took both minus and plus lines with the under 189.5. looks nice to me. i love it.

Dont understand this logic at all?

[hangtime]

Dont understand this logic at all?

sorry. i shouldve mentioned it is a parlay. line into the total. great value with the total set at 189.5.

[Donnie Brasco]

sorry. i shouldve mentioned it is a parlay. line into the total. great value with the total set at 189.5.

Unreal u guys are getting that total! Twizzle may want to investigate this

[Donnie Brasco]

No play on atl LTA?

[hangtime]

Unreal u guys are getting that total! Twizzle may want to investigate this

itr clearly was an error, but they have just corrected it 20min before tipoff. all is normal now. 189.5 was only offered with the line parlay. the 182.5 has also been juiced now.

[t-wizzle]

Unreal u guys are getting that total! Twizzle may want to investigate this

LTA LTA what should i bet on tonight?!? Learn how to make your own bets kid.

[MrXYZ]

Dont understand this logic at all?

They're parlaying ATL +4.5/under 189.5 +250 and ORL -4.5/under 189.5 +250. As long as the game stays under they're guaranteed a profit. Good luck, I saw this just now & can't get to my local TAB in time.

[Donnie Brasco]

LTA LTA what should i bet on tonight?!? Learn how to make your own bets kid.

Hey twizz, why dont u go fellate a goat

[aussieH]

I missed getting on.

Drove to the bank in the rain, double parked, took out cash, drove to Pub Tab. Checked odds, they were still good. Filled out card, Changed my mind and thought I would it put through the machine instead. Checked the odds and they were still all good. Put the money in $50 at a time, went to place the bet and it was updated.

Not sure if they realised or they switched to live betting 10 minutes prior to the game which may have caused an update of the odds.


On another note, this morning one of the other agencies had the Lakers Under 185 for $3.35. Again by the time I logged in deposited some money it was updated.

[t-wizzle]

Hey twizz, why dont u go fellate a goat

I will when you are capable of making your own bets.

I missed getting on.

Drove to the bank in the rain, double parked, took out cash, drove to Pub Tab. Checked odds, they were still good. Filled out card, Changed my mind and thought I would it put through the machine instead. Checked the odds and they were still all good. Put the money in $50 at a time, went to place the bet and it was updated.

Not sure if they realised or they switched to live betting 10 minutes prior to the game which may have caused an update of the odds.


On another note, this morning one of the other agencies had the Lakers Under 185 for $3.35. Again by the time I logged in deposited some money it was updated.

Is that the thing in this thread? Explaining one's agenda for the day?

[Donnie Brasco]

I will when you are capable of making your own bets.



Is that the thing in this thread? Explaining one's agenda for the day?

Yet you seem to be uncontrolably bound to visit and troll. Kinda speaks for itself. Havent seen ur thread, but i bet ur card is eerily similar. Now about you and cunnilingus with barnyard animals......

[aussieH]

Hey T Pizzle. One poster was actually able to give others on the forum a good angle and I was just relaying my frustrations in trying to place the wager.

The thread would actually be better if we got back to trying discredit LTA again? What do you you think T-Pizz???

[Sport_Fish]

LTA LTA what should i bet on tonight?!? Learn how to make your own bets kid.

As hard as it may be for u to believe, many people here don't have big egos and are willing to admit there are better cappers out there than them - which is why they trust putting their money on someone else's research over theirs.

[Dexter]

I will when you are capable of making your own bets.



Is that the thing in this thread? Explaining one's agenda for the day?

twizzle - i promise you Donnie makes his own bets. the same way you gravitate towards LB's style, Donnie does towards LTA. chill out now man.....

[hangtime]

t-wizzle is ******* troll. not worth responding to that guy.

[BrewCrew1]

What do u guys think about the under ny/la game??

[aussieH]

Of course I missed getting on the Cav's game by a second. Not having much luck even getting the bets on today!

[t-wizzle]

Yet you seem to be uncontrolably bound to visit and troll. Kinda speaks for itself. Havent seen ur thread, but i bet ur card is eerily similar. Now about you and cunnilingus with barnyard animals......

All my plays are posted on my spreadsheet. 30-28 +7.29 units.

twizzle - i promise you Donnie makes his own bets. the same way you gravitate towards LB's style, Donnie does towards LTA. chill out now man.....

Was just responding to him calling me out dexter.

[Donnie Brasco]

Twizz dont know you, lets call truce and stop gunking up this thread out of respect for a very diligent and respected capper, k bro.

[TC Woods]

All my plays are posted on my spreadsheet. 30-28 +7.29 units.



Was just responding to him calling me out dexter.

I'm calling you out...... Yer a %$#@ing dweeb, go away hose-bag

[t-wizzle]

Twizz dont know you, lets call truce and stop gunking up this thread out of respect for a very diligent and respected capper, k bro.

Sounds good donnie.

[Catchn_Picks]

Atlanta Under bettors cannot ask for a better first half.

But Washington is a high school team. Hey Wizards, do you really think you can beat the Heat with your defense?

(My apologies to all high school basketball teams)

[alamo]

19pts in the last 3mins of that Atlanta game including a 43footer miracle three. we should be ok there. Miami \ Wash goin to have start hitting from down town in the 2h

[JM92]

In the meanwhile, I can't believe Im losing my over at Philly. Those rims look like they have a curse.

[NEOHsports4life]

Brewcrew I am on the under 184 lakeshow & nyk, good play

[chief42]