Updated Record: 22-13 [+6.05]
Gut don't lie.
Gut don't lie.
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Prop #36: [Game 1] Rashard Lewis Total Points OVER 15.5 [+105]
Rashard Lewis & Vince Carter were the two guys I was eager to see where they'd be set as far as total points. I think these two guys will be keys to Orlando winning or losing this series. Lewis is set right where I wanted it to be. Lewis is really the forgotten weapon on the Magic with all the talk of Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson's great start to the playoffs & Vince Carter of course. Lewis is a bad match-up for KG, I think. It's been proven in the regular season as Lewis averaged 18 ppg in the four meetings. Last year in the playoffs, he topped this number in each of the six games. That was Boston without KG, but the match-up problems he poses were just as clear against Glen Davis. Lewis will float along the 3 point line with the hopes of keeping KG from helping on Howard, but don't be surprised to see him post up a little bit too to make KG work. If KG plays too far off him, he'll be meat and Lewis will get some open look at threes. And of course, Lewis can take KG and the rest of Boston's 4s off the dribble which could have him in store for a solid game and series. He's had some very solid games against Boston over the past two seasons and if he can keep himself out of foul trouble, I think this one has a legit shot to get over.
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Lewis can't take KG off the dribble now that he's healthy.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
GL, Eagles.Comment -
my book has lewis over 17.5 would you still take it eagles?Comment -
Tough call. I felt Rashard Lewis could finish anywhere from 15-20 points today if he stays out of foul trouble and gets a dozen or so shots. Part of the reason I didn't take Vince Carter was because he is at 17.5, but I actually think Vince might have a better shot to top 18 points than Rashard Lewis. What's the price on that OVER 17.5?Comment -
lewis is +105. they also have carter over 23 pts and rebounds at -130Comment -
Updated Record: 22-14 [+5.05]Comment -
Prop #37: [Game 1] Suns-Lakers Total Three Pointers Made OVER 14.5 [-130]
In the four regular season meetings, this number was surpassed in 3 of 4 with the only "miss" being 14 combined threes. What is interesting to me is that the Lakers actually made more threes against the Suns than the Suns made against the Lakers in those games [33-30]. The Suns had some difficulties stopping the Spurs from spotting up in their 4 game sweep, allowing 23 of 64 from distance. That is 36% which seems solid, but is skewed somewhat by a poor Game 4 from the Spurs. Otherwise in the three prior games, San Antonio hit 19 of 44 for 43%. They also allowed Portland to shoot 38% from distance in the 1st round, so even though the Lakers are not a prolific 3 point shooting club - they may be able to take advantage here. Getting Sasha Vujacic back in action can only help! The Suns will be the Suns. They shot 46% from 3 against San Antonio with 41 made threes on 89 shot attempts. In the playoffs, the Suns are averaging 24 three point attempts and making about half of those, while the Lakers on average are taking about 21 threes and making 7. Both makes and attempts are up for both teams over the regular season. I have a feeling for this series, the number may be 15 made threes as the series progresses, so taking a shot tonight here with the hope that the shooters are hot!
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gl tonite, manComment -
Updated Record: 22-15 [+3.75]
I'll take that again in Game 2 if it stays the same. Phoenix missed a shitload of open looks.
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Prop #38: [Game 2] Vince Carter Total Points OVER 17.5 [-120]
Well I rode the fence in Game 1 between Rashard Lewis & Vince Carter as to whose point prop I wanted. I believe firmly that in Lewis & Carter, the Magic have better match-ups against Garnett & Allen or Pierce that they could exploit. Well, Lewis stunk in Game 1 shooting the ball and the one thing that struck me was that he was not selfish enough in taking some open opportunities until later in the game when I think he forced some. Carter meanwhile is absolutely what you need for an OVER prop, a selfish son of a bitch who isn't going to pass the rock much. VC had a solid Game 1, shooting 9 of 18 from the floor and making 6 trips to the line for 23 points. During the regular season, he beat Boston for 20 or better in 3 of the 4 meetings. VC has also hit for 20 or better now in 5 of Orlando's last 6 playoff games. Stay selfish my friend and get the OVER home.Comment -
how do you feel about over 21.5 pts+ast for carter?Comment -
He could beat that with points alone if he has another solid game, just don't expect much help from the assists.Comment -
how do uf eel about who will score more pts? vince carter -1 vs paul peirce +1?? both -115Comment -
Tough call there. I was reading that Matt Barnes might be switched off Ray Allen in favor of Vince Carter. Barnes looked hobbled in Game 1, so if he's on Pierce instead on the switch - that could mean another good game for Pierce or if Barnes feels better, a bad game for Pierce because Barnes is their best defender. I don't see much of an edge in that one as both might be into the 20s or around 20.Comment -
GL, again, man. May give it a try myself.Comment -
I f-ing hate today. Foul trouble killed this, but the asshole still had 18 but missed two FTs and I lose. FML.Comment -
Absolutely awful, awful beat missing the ft's and only playing 20 something minutes.Comment -
Just watching an 84% FT shooter blow two shots was sick. It'd be like Dwight Howard missing a dunk with nobody guarding him. Oh well, onward to tonight to break this F-ing shit streak.
Updated Record: 22-16 [+2.55]Comment -
Prop #39: [Game 2] Suns-Lakers Total Three Pointers Made OVER 14.5 [-140]
As I said after Game 1, I will ride this one until it puts me up or shuts me up. Phoenix was just 5 of 22 from beyond the arc in the opener, missing quite a few open looks. The Lakers were hot from outside, hitting 8 of 17. Combined the two teams were 13 of 39, a disappointing number considered they hit for six three pointers in the 1st quarter. Frye & Dudley were the biggest culprits for Phoenix going 2 for 12 combined from distance. So long as the Suns continue to get looks, they will knock more down. They didn't have the best 3 point shooting percentage in the regular season for nothing.
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The 3's have just killed me in the playoffs, too. Doesn't seem like the makers have evened it out for us, tho.
Carib over 14.5 - 115Comment -
Well this one is a good number because if they hit over in the 1st game, you know we'd be at 15 for the total tonight. I thought the Magic would be more of a cash cow on the over for threes, but they have been surprisingly inconsistent on the number they have made.Comment -
Gl ep36Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
BINGO
The only question is how many we're going over by. Sure could have used a couple of those in some past games.
Watch that line jump for game 3.
Nice call.Comment -
Updated Record: 23-16 [+3.55]
Finally back on track. Line will be 15 for certain next game, only question is how high the chalk opens. I'm guessing O/U 15 with the OVER at -120 at least. I'd love to see them keep it at 14.5, but it's not likely.
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I agreeComment -
Prop #40: [Game 3] Vince Carter Total Points OVER 18.5 [-115]
Well this prop went up a point over Game 2 despite VC netting just 16, but it went up for good reason. Carter had 16 points in just 25 minutes of play due to foul trouble, taking 15 shots in that brief time on court. He gets the added bonus tonight perhaps of being switched more from Pierce to Allen defensively. It may require some more energy to chase Allen, but he should also keep away from foul trouble by Barnes asking to guard Pierce tonight. The key again here is that Carter is selfish enough to take a bunch of shots to give himself a chance to beat this number. Carter has taken 34 shots in the first two games and gone to the FT line 13 times. He's normally an excellent FT shooter save for his boned misses late last game that blew this same prop at 17.5. Still, Vince should get his chances again and needs to be a scoring threat if the Magic hope to compete and get back into this series. So long as he avoids fouls this game, look for VC to continue to be a selfish SOB and take plenty of shots.
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GL Eagles, go gunner, go.Comment -
Prop #41: [Game 3] Lakers-Suns Total Three Pointers Made OVER 15 [-135]
Went up to 15 as expected. Gonna keep riding this one for this series as long as it doesn't grow any higher than this. Suns should benefit from returning home here perhaps to get Channing Frye untracked. Regardless, the Lakers continue to add threes to the mix here as they did all season vs. Phoenix. If the Suns can continue to get at least what they got in Game 2, this should have a legit shot again this evening. Good luck homies.
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Like a hard head, I bit again. Got jammed by Boston/Orlando at 14.5 last nite and which finished at 14. This has been a hard luck prop the whole run of playoff games.........and really shouldn't be as we had plenty of 3 point bombers & gunners in the playoffs. By all rights, it should have been a moneymaker.
Tonite: Carib @ 15 -115, they have been 15 to 20 cents (or 1/2 a bucket) lower than most other houses on this particular prop constantly. Not saying they know anything others don't, just an FYI. The same with bases totals, I use them often as they often differ a bit from the norm. I have been with them 8-9 years and have never had a problem..........they are a nice out for a shopper.
GLComment -
Worst three point shooting EVER. You get close to 50 attempts and can't make 15? Eat a dick boys.Comment -
Updated Record: 23-18 [+1.05]
High chalk has been killing the prop shop this post-season. Should never be just a unit up when you're 5 picks over .500. Going stupid tonight because I can and the Gawds owe me.
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52 attempts........the way they were throwing up bricks for the first 3 quarters they could have taken 152 and the under still would have been safe. To throw some vinegar, Fisher missed a 3 with 7 seconds left which would have given a push, anyway.
Now there are those that say any losing wager is a bad wager. I can understand that, but I disagree. I think it was a good wager as the over takers had the game figured exactly right, a 3 point free for all, which it was. 52 attempts and at one time 4 straight shots were 3 point attempts. Just one of those funky things that most everybody was colder than ice from beyond the arc.
This prop has just run into a bit of bad luck/karma throughout the playoffs..........and a blatant reminder that one can never handicap the bounce of the ball.
One also knows that the next time you lay off of the over and don't play it, it will rain 3's like dollar bills on a late Friday nite for the hottest dancer at your favorite strip club. Bank on that.Comment
