The Prop Shop: Playoff Time

[EaglesPhan36]

This was really the only good thing I did productively in the NBA last season. Looking to repeat that feat. Good luck to you with your plays, let's end up with positive units in June!

Prop #1: [Game 1] Chicago-Cleveland LARGEST LEAD UNDER 20 [-130]
I'm not choosing this based on Lebron sitting out a handful of games down the stretch or trying to figure out how Shaq fits in or what roles Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison have on the court together when this team has all its parts ... it's based solely on the series between these teams over the past two seasons. In this year's four meetings, the largest lead in any game was 19 points. In the past 8 meetings back through last season, just one has featured a lead of more than 20 points. Over the past three seasons when starting the playoffs, only last year's Game 1 with Detroit featured a lead as big as 20 for Cleveland and that was the biggest lead, exactly 20. I think the Cavs are going to be using this series as a building block on how exactly all the pieces fit the playoff puzzle for them and that could keep at least the first few games within reach of this 20 point cushion.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED RECORD: 0-1 [-1.30]

Well that was a horrible way to start, Ole offense and defense from Chicago - that one never had much of a chance to last with the way the Bulls came out today. Onto the next one.

Prop #2: [Game 1] Bucks-Hawks Total 3 Pointers Made OVER 13.5 [-105]
*2 units*
The Bucks were already a perimeter oriented team with Bogut, but now have become even more of an outside shooting squad. Since the Bogut injury, the Bucks have made double digit threes in three of five games and have made at least seven in each game during that span. That includes 11 when these two teams met just a few days ago. The Hawks do not shoot the volume of threes that Milwaukee does, but they are still effective. In the three games between the two teams, they were 17 of 46 from beyond the arc. Considering the first meeting back in late February, there were just 3 of 13 - their next two meetings showed their effectiveness with 14 of 33 made with 7 made threes in both games. The Bucks have yielded over 40% from beyond the arc in their last five, so let's hope Atlanta takes advantage. I think if they can make even as little as 5 or 6, Milwaukee will do the rest. Low juice on this one. Going heavier on this one because I think it is a solid play at a lower price. I'll either be a happy camper or a hateful bitch around 7:30pm ET.

[GoGoGadget]

I got Perkins more rebounds than Jermaine O`neal (-125)

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED RECORD: 0-2 [-3.40]

Superb start. Bucks other than Brandon Jennings, I'm looking at you! 2 of 14 when you're not named Jennings. Sheesh. At least you can fade away and make some cash so far. Do it, do it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #3: [Game 1] Bobcats-Magic Total Three Pointers MADE OVER 15 [-130]
This is a series that I will ride this prop until it breaks me or what I think, banks for me. Both teams love the 3 ball and both are fully capable of double digit threes made in any game. The Magic have been especially deadly from beyond the arc at home, shooting 37% from distance. In their last five, the Magic shot almost 44% from the land of plenty. The Bobcats also amped their production up down the stretch, shooting 37% from beyond the arc in their last 5. The last two meetings between the two teams which came after the Jackson trade totaled 16 threes and 23 threes. So long as the Magic take their volume of threes, I think you have to take a shot on this going OVER. This is gonna be my post-season cherry buster. Hot cheerleader for luck.

[Wilforth]

Bobcats to score 1st (+125)

[suicidekings]

Hey EP. I'm also a huge fan of props in playoff NBA. My favourite prop of the day is Tim Duncan O9.5 rebounds. Looks like it can't miss against a poor rebounding Dallas team.

A few others that I think are going to be solid in pretty much every game in the first round are D. Howard points Under, Steve Nash Assists Over, Amare Stoudemire points Over, and Shaq points Over. Any others on the horizon for you?

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED RECORD: 1-2 [-2.40]

Squeaked it in, cherry busted! Considering the Bobcats only hit three tonight, this prop is still one I firmly back for Game 2 if it remains at 15.

[ROYAJA8]

Make it to .500. Just bet Suns n over

[Qbasa]

BOL

Prop #3: [Game 1] Bobcats-Magic Total Three Pointers MADE OVER 15 [-130]
This is a series that I will ride this prop until it breaks me or what I think, banks for me. Both teams love the 3 ball and both are fully capable of double digit threes made in any game. The Magic have been especially deadly from beyond the arc at home, shooting 37% from distance. In their last five, the Magic shot almost 44% from the land of plenty. The Bobcats also amped their production up down the stretch, shooting 37% from beyond the arc in their last 5. The last two meetings between the two teams which came after the Jackson trade totaled 16 threes and 23 threes. So long as the Magic take their volume of threes, I think you have to take a shot on this going OVER. This is gonna be my post-season cherry buster. Hot cheerleader for luck.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #4: [Game 2] Nene Total Points + Rebounds OVER 21.5 [-140]
Nene has combined to beat this total in all but one of the 5 meetings with Utah this season. That includes 19 points and 6 boards in Game 1. Coach Adrian Dantley says he wants Nene to get even more touches. No Ohkur, so it's either a youngster against Nene or a lighter Boozer. Nene should have another strong game if he avoids foul trouble - which he should guarding the opposing center.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED RECORD: 2-2 [-0.40]

[GoGoGadget]

You are back on track.
What are your thoughts on a few of these props I found.

MIL Bucks v ATL Hawks [Points Match]
Jennings B. [MIL Bucks] + 5.5 -118
Johnson J. [ATL Hawks] - 5.5

OKC Thunder v LA Lakers [Assists Match]
Westbrook R. [OKC Thunder] -133
Bryant K. [LA Lakers]

OKC Thunder v LA Lakers [Rebounds Match]
Durant K. [OKC Thunder]
Bynum A. [LA Lakers] -133

SA Spurs v DAL Mavericks [Assists Match]
Ginobili M. [SA Spurs] + 3.5
Kidd J. [DAL Mavericks] - 3.5 -118

[rdo37]

Gotta love playoff props, keep it up EP. Get back in the black tomorrow

[EaglesPhan36]

You are back on track. What are your thoughts on a few of these props I found. MIL Bucks v ATL Hawks [Points Match] Jennings B. [MIL Bucks] + 5.5 -118 Johnson J. [ATL Hawks] - 5.5 OKC Thunder v LA Lakers [Assists Match] Westbrook R. [OKC Thunder] -133 Bryant K. [LA Lakers] OKC Thunder v LA Lakers [Rebounds Match] Durant K. [OKC Thunder] Bynum A. [LA Lakers] -133 SA Spurs v DAL Mavericks [Assists Match] Ginobili M. [SA Spurs] + 3.5 Kidd J. [DAL Mavericks] - 3.5 -118

I think the best one there if the game is close is Bynum if that is just straight up who gets more rebounds. If Bynum gets his minutes, I would expect him to have more boards. Durant doesn't really rebound that well against this team from the #s. Lakers have a lot of beef down low to trouble him. The Jennings one looks too good to be true based on Game 1. The Kidd one might be a sucker bet because you'd think he'd always have more assists, but he didn't have that great a series against them last season ... although I'd venture to say he is playing better this year. No opinion on the Westbrook-Kobe one. Good luck with your plays!

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #5: [Game 2] Al Horford Total Points OVER 14.5 [-105]
The Hawks started Game 1 trying to exploit the Bucks lack of size and athleticism inside and it worked as Horford and Josh Smith both got off to quick starts. The problem? They went away from it when they got up big. Subsuquently, the Bucks made a run in the 2nd half and made for some nerves for Atlanta fans late in a game that they should have been comfortably in front of the entire way. So Coach Mike Woodson was quick to say in between Game 1 & today's Game 2 that the Hawks - no shock - need to stick with their game plan of working the mismatches with Horford and Smith. Horford got 15 in Game 1 on 14 shots, so he did have opportunity. He needs to get to the FT line to help the cause as he shot just one in Game 1. If Atlanta sticks to their plan and feeds Horford the ball more again this evening, he should have a shot to equal or eclipse his Game 1 total and that'd be dandy with me.

[t-bone]

My play of the night is the under in the bucks/hawks man so let's hope horford is the only hot shooter on the court!

Best of luck

[hels]

Prop #5: [Game 2] Al Horford Total Points OVER 14.5 [-105] The Hawks started Game 1 trying to exploit the Bucks lack of size and athleticism inside and it worked as Horford and Josh Smith both got off to quick starts. The problem? They went away from it when they got up big. Subsuquently, the Bucks made a run in the 2nd half and made for some nerves for Atlanta fans late in a game that they should have been comfortably in front of the entire way. So Coach Mike Woodson was quick to say in between Game 1 & today's Game 2 that the Hawks - no shock - need to stick with their game plan of working the mismatches with Horford and Smith. Horford got 15 in Game 1 on 14 shots, so he did have opportunity. He needs to get to the FT line to help the cause as he shot just one in Game 1. If Atlanta sticks to their plan and feeds Horford the ball more again this evening, he should have a shot to equal or eclipse his Game 1 total and that'd be dandy with me.

Already on this and played it in game 1 as well. Horford had 6 points in the first 5 minutes in game 1 and I was expecting him to have at least 20. With Bogut out it opens up a huge inside opportunity and will be exploited.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah just have to hope as the coach said that the guards do a better job of pumping the ball down low to Horford and Smith instead of going away from it. If they keep with that plan for even 3 quarters, I'll take my chances of Horford getting 15.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED RECORD: 3-2 [+0.60]

Done before half time. That's how Daddy likes it. Still looking at the late game perhaps for one more tonight.

[t-bone]

What a call man, awesome

[GoGoGadget]

I went with Westbrook more assists than Bryant and Bynum more rebs than Durant. I just hope Bynum avoids fouls and plays at least 30 minutes.

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #6: [Game 2] Portland-Phoenix Total Three Pointers Made OVER 15 [-105]
This is a similar set-up to the Orlando series where you have one team capable of doing such a large majority of the work needed that it makes sense to try the OVER here in just about every game until they prove it not worthy. Game 1 was set at 14.5, so the books have already adjusted up a half to 15 after the two teams combined for 17 threes in Game 1. That was just the second time they had combined to beat tonight's posted total in their now 4 meetings this season. The Suns are the key here as they shoot a league best 41% from beyond the arc this season on about 22 attempts per game. They shot 32 in Game 1, but made only 11 - well below their season average. Still, if the Suns are going to get 25 or more three point attempts, you have to like their chances at getting double digits. That leaves the magic number I think for Portland at 6, the exact number they made in Game 1 and the number they averaged per game during the regular season. They only put up about 16-17 threes per contest [17 - Game 1], but they have the shooters capable of filling it up. In Game 1, Nicolas Batum hit for half their total in both makes and attempts. Add in the likes of Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and the occassional 3 ball from Andre Miller ... and you have a group that certainly if they can get up 16 or more attempts, can drain at least 6 threes to help the cause. And the more Andre Miller beats the Suns inside, the more the outside could be opened. I think Rudy Fernandez is the key - he shot 37% from beyond the arc this season after shooting 40% last season. He had hit for multiple threes in four straight games prior to Game 1. He missed open threes in Game 1. He makes those tonight, this has a real chance.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED RECORD: 3-3 [-0.45]

Well that last one was bogus. 5 threes in the first quarter then none in the 2nd. 7 in the second half. Will have to evaluate this one for Game 3. Suns wound up doing about their averages. Portland did not take as many threes as usual, leaving about five shots off the board. Will grab the Magic-Bobcats three prop on the OVER as soon as it's available today at 15 or less.

[sweetjones55]

Take Dwight Howard Points+Rebounds OVER -anything

[GoGoGadget]

What do you guys think about Noah more rebounds than Varejao(-125) and Bryant more assists than Durant(-118)?

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #7: [Game 2] Bobcats-Magic Total Three Pointers Made OVER 15.5 [-125]
Gonna ride this one again. One hot streak in the 2nd quarter got it done. These two have combined for at least 15 threes in 3 of the last 4 meetings with 16 or more in three of those. If the Bobcats will jack up a few more, that'd help! 42 threes attempted in the first game, need at least that many tonight. A hot chick for lucky #16 tonight.

[sweetjones55]

Good luck on your plays tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

That was justice! Had at least three rim out during the game and a good half dozen wide open threes missed. 41 threes. 16 made, the last coming with :20 in the 4th. Hells yeah. That's why I'm riding this one. They had one three combined in the 1st quarter and still made it.

[EaglesPhan36]

updated record: 4-3 [+0.55]

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop #8: [Game 3] LaMarcus Aldridge Total Points + Rebounds UNDER 28 [+110]
This is plus money? Really? Let's see, through two games Aldridge has FIVE total rebounds and 33 points. Are you taunting me bookies? I accept your challenge this evening. Aldridge has not eclipsed this combo number in any of the 5 meetings between Phoenix & Portland this season. With or without foul trouble, Aldridge has averaged 17.2 ppg against the Suns and 5.2 rebounds. His high point output was 22 in Game 1, one that he matched in February. Rebounding wise, 7 has been his high output against Phoenix. Dating back through the 2008-2009 season, Aldridge has only had one big game against Phoenix - a 29/12 performance in March 2009. Otherwise, in 14 career games to-date vs. Phoenix, he's only beaten this number on the OVER side ... twice.

[GoGoGadget]

Kidd more assists than Ginobili (-167). Juice but how can I not play this.

Also going to play Howard more rebs than Wallace -133. No foul trouble please.

They took down the other two I was looking at in Noah more rebounds than Varejao(-125) and Bryant more assists than Durant(-118)

[Goat Milk]

Good luck today Dos Eques

I like the Aldrich prop, Gentry has figured him out. He's just a 7 foot jump shooter that doesn't like to get points in the paint or get his hands dirty. Camby will grab most of the rebounds for Port

[GoGoGadget]

Prop #8: [Game 3] LaMarcus Aldridge Total Points + Rebounds UNDER 28 [+110]
This is plus money? Really? Let's see, through two games Aldridge has FIVE total rebounds and 33 points. Are you taunting me bookies? I accept your challenge this evening. Aldridge has not eclipsed this combo number in any of the 5 meetings between Phoenix & Portland this season. With or without foul trouble, Aldridge has averaged 17.2 ppg against the Suns and 5.2 rebounds. His high point output was 22 in Game 1, one that he matched in February. Rebounding wise, 7 has been his high output against Phoenix. Dating back through the 2008-2009 season, Aldridge has only had one big game against Phoenix - a 29/12 performance in March 2009. Otherwise, in 14 career games to-date vs. Phoenix, he's only beaten this number on the OVER side ... twice.

nice pick.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 5-3 [+1.65]

I almost feel bad for winning plus money on that .... NOT! Aldridge finishes with 17 & 7.