The Prop Shop: Playoff Time

**THE HITMAN** · 05-08-10, 12:28 PM

Looks like most everyone had a good Fri nite !

**THE HITMAN** · 05-08-10, 01:57 PM

Looks like Howard is geared to show up, the refs in this series have left him pretty much alone. The last game he could have had 2 more offensive fouls (one very obvious) but didn't get called for either. So, I can't resist the over 19.5 points at Dimes -115.
The over 15.5 3 pointers has to hit sometime, doesn't it ? Hope it's today, -115 at various shops.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-08-10, 02:03 PM

Prop #29: [Game 3] Josh Smith Total Points OVER 15.5 [+120]
This is a combo gut play and some logic. Smith has been the focus of a lot of attention for being a little "soft" or unfocused since being hammered by a Dwight Howard elbow in Game 1. Still, Smith has tallied 32 points in the first two games. He had 14 points despite playing just 23 minutes in Game 1 and then hit for 18 in Game 2 in 40+ minutes. Going back home and with criticism on both him and his teammates, it's now or never time to respond with a strong performance. Smith has put up 29 shots in the first two games, that is good for this prop's consideration. The big thing for Smith is he must drive to the basket, not be afraid of getting blocked and keep going to that formula to score. He's not a jump shooter. He also should have more success against Rashard Lewis who is long, but not nearly as quick & athletic as Smith. Smith should be able to take him more off the dribble and with Mike Bibby struggling to do anything this series, Mike Woodson may look to Smith & Joe Johnson to set-up more of the offense when they don't get out in transition. Smith did get to the line 7 times last game and would do well to continue to get to the line for free opportunities. Smith generally has had his better playoff games at home in his short career and in-general. If he and the Hawks can get off early and get an energized Smith involved, I think this one will have a chance if he can stay clear of foul trouble and jump shots. If he plays at least 36 minutes or more, I like this. Nifty price too.

**tokio** · 05-08-10, 02:24 PM

Anyone like the 3s under 15.5?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-08-10, 03:01 PM

I decided to avoid the three point prop in this series in spite of loving to watch the Magic shoot. Orlando hasn't had to shoot as many threes so far because Howard has been so dominant inside. If Orlando was guaranteed to take 27-30, I'd take my shot - but they've been in the low 20s instead and Atlanta - who the hell knows what they're going to give at this point. No edge on either side as you could get a ton from Orlando or it could stay like the first two, under. I only like playing one prop per game, but I also think the Al Horford OVER 13.5 is a solid one for Game 3 IF Woodson can get him the match-up again where he's playing power forward and not matching up head-2-head with Howard. If he isn't, he should be good for 16-20.

**KingKolzig** · 05-08-10, 03:57 PM

crazy lines at 5dimes............got them earlier today now the juice is insane

J.Nelson o15.5 pts (-145)
J.Nelson u18 pts (-115)

im trying to snag middle ground here. usually not worth it but the juice was so low at the beginning that it made it worth the try.

also ya i like the under 3's at 15.5..........atlanta just doesnt shoot em. good luck

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-08-10, 06:14 PM

Josh Smith one is gonna miss by a point I think. I believe he's about done in this blowout. If the f*cker would have made 2 of 4 FTs instead of 1, would have gotten it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-08-10, 06:25 PM

Updated Record: 17-12 [+3.20]

That sucked. Near misses are killers, I'd rather he had 8 points instead of 15. His own damn fault though with the missed FTs. Ah well. Don't think I am playing anything in the Lakers-Jazz game. No numbers really stood out. Kind of liked the over on Artest at 9.5 points. Kinda liked the over on Boozer at 11.5 boards, but neither was really screaming TAKE ME! Expecting to play both games Sunday if the books put out good props. The 3 point prop in the Boston-Cleveland game probably moves back to 12 even tomorrow after only nine were made in Game 3. Think the blowout took away any chance of that hitting. Still puzzling that the Cavs have not shot threes better, but I think Ray Allen will bounce back tomorrow and the OVER might be something to look at. Anything Rondo related on the OVER depending on the number has got to be looked at. Will see where they put KG's number at too. Will wait and see in the morning. Good luck tonight boys.

**KingKolzig** · 05-08-10, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Josh Smith one is gonna miss by a point I think. I believe he's about done in this blowout. If the f*cker would have made 2 of 4 FTs instead of 1, would have gotten it.

ya i missed middle ground by 2 pts. van gundy didnt play jameer the entire 4th quarter yet left Howard out for almost the entire time???

ur totally right about no good props for the other game. i have Kobe u34 pts+rebs (+100) but i only took it cause its even. and only for a single unit, otherwise i dont see much........

**THE HITMAN** · 05-08-10, 06:54 PM

Another excruciating loss on the over 3's.....I think this is the 3rd one I lost by 1/2. Tough 1/2 pt. loss for Eagles, too, looked like Josh Smith was on his way. I wouldn't be surprised to see both of these props hit next time around.
Not a disaster, as Howard stayed in way too long, IMO, but it was a happy opinion, tho, as he covered my 19.5 when he should have been on the bench. And I had Orlando minus the miniscule 2.5, so it was still a good game for me.
King had the under on the 3's and had a legitimate shot at the middle with Jameer Nelson.
Agree, not taking any props tonite, probably go with the under. Love the way Boozer plays, would like to fit him in somewhere, but the #'s don't quite fit.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-09-10, 02:12 PM

Prop #30: [Game 4] Cavaliers-Celtics Total Three Pointers Made OVER 12 [-115]
This number did slip back down from 12.5 in Game 3 to 12 for Game 4. I think often when the books make game to game adjustments like they have with this prop, they do not know where to go. I outlined at the beginning of this series that this prop would probably be a decent OVER shot based on the regular season numbers between these two teams. The problem has been Cleveland's surprising lack of 3 point prowess in this series. Hell, their lack of taking threes in this series except for Game 2 when they took 21, totaling just 24 attempts in the other two games. They averaged 19 attempts from distance in the regular season. Part of the issue has been Boston's defense in that the Celtics have gone two games with no answers from keeping the Cavs out of the lane and getting easy points. I would expect the Celtics to adjust for Game 4 as they did from Game 1 to Game 2 in trying to force the Cavaliers to perhaps have to put up more jumpers. Boston itself could help this prop by rebounding from an overall poor performance in Game 3 with a stronger shooting day today. Ray Allen took just one three pointer in Game 3. I would expect him to get back to his Game 1 & 2 performances where he squeezed off 7 three point attempts in each game. They need him to be a weapon from the perimeter. It would also be nice if Paul Pierce remembered how to shoot. I think this prop could hinge on how Boston responds to LeBron's huge Game 3. Do they continue to try and play him straight up or do they start shading a second defender over more? If they do, that could leave guys like Anthony Parker & Mo Williams to get open looks. And hey Mo Williams ... start shooting the three!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-09-10, 03:32 PM

I must be drunk, but these threes they are calling twos clearly looked like threes.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-09-10, 03:36 PM

Prop #31: [Game 4] Steve Nash Total Points OVER 15.5 [-115]
I'll gladly hit this one again. Nash has beaten this number in each of the first three games. He missed some open threes in Game 3, making his 16 point total look that much better for this potential close out game. Nash also played his least amount of minutes because of the Dragic explosion at 33, but still got his points. All six meetings in the 2009-2010 season, Nash has beaten the Spurs for at least 16 points. Don't see any reason not to think he has another shot today at closing above this number tonight.

**Goat Milk** · 05-09-10, 03:52 PM

Good luck today EP; I would stay away from Nash today simply because I think Dragic will get more playing time with his performance last time and the likely possibility that the Suns get blown out today.

**tokio** · 05-09-10, 04:13 PM

My books dont have Nash at 15.5pts. They have Nash pts + assists. Found another good prop at Stoudemire 23.5pts. Thats a good under.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-09-10, 05:19 PM

Updated Record: 17-13 [+2.05]

F*ckers couldn't buy a three today. So many open looks. 5 of 30 late in the game, Celtics 1 of 14. That's atrocious. They should have had a good half dozen more with all the open looks they got, but that's the way the ball bounces. Richardson over 18.5 is also a pretty good prop in looking at that Phoenix-San Antonio game, but I'm sticking with the Nash one only. Good luck tonight boys.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 12:23 AM

Updated Record: 18-13 [+2.05]

Nash = cash again.

**talnted** · 05-10-10, 12:33 AM

I had a prop that Kevin Garnett had over 25 points and rebounds. He had 22 combined before the start of the 4th quarter... He missed like 5 million layups in the last few minutes and the total ended at 24.... FML

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 11:39 AM

That's a rough loss. Probably best on KG to just hit the points prop on an over if it's 17.5-18 or so. He's going to keep getting the ball. Paul Pierce under might have been something to play a long time ago. Does not appear he is going to snap out of his funk any time this series. LeBron is shutting him down.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 04:09 PM

Prop #32: [Game 4] Magic-Hawks Largest Lead OVER 16 [-120]
So many people fall into the trap of expecting a miracle when teams go down 0-3 in the playoffs. They expect the home team to suddenly find the resiliency to put forth an effort that would keep them in the series. Well that's all well and good if the first three games of the series have been remotely close. In this case after watching Orlando demolish Atlanta in Games 1-3, can you reasonably expect the Hawks to suddenly "figure it out" against what might be the NBA's most talented and deep team? Hey, yeah they COULD play better at home - but wasn't that the war cry for Game 3, the one they lost by 30? Each of the 1st three games has featured a lead of at least 19 points and in all, the 8 meetings between these two teams in 2009-2010 have seen leads of 16 or higher in 7 of 8. So the Magic should mercifully finish off this heartless team and do it with the same style they have shown in Games 1-3 ... or if miracles exist, perhaps the Hawks show some nards and start hot and run out to a big lead ...

**THE HITMAN** · 05-10-10, 06:17 PM

GL, man. Anyone stll want in on this, BETJ has over 14.5 - 115.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 06:29 PM

I think the player props for the Magic-Hawks were hard to like today because if it is another blowout, who knows who will be getting how many minutes. My gut plays would have been Vince Carter over 16.5 and J.J. Redick to make a three.

**Goat Milk** · 05-10-10, 06:36 PM

Bibby over 9.5 points + assists, but at -190.
He'll play a lot more today. If you know about 1 thing about Bibby, its that he doesn't fold in must win games in the playoffs. He'll give it his all today I hope.

**Patrickk_b** · 05-10-10, 07:02 PM

I like your thinking EP. My book offered Vince Carter -.5 against Josh Smith.
Going huge on Vince

GL on ur props

**sweetjones55** · 05-10-10, 07:06 PM

Good luck tonight on your plays.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 08:39 PM

Updated Record: 19-13 [+3.05]

I love it when a plan comes together. Finalizing a Lakers-Jazz prop.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 09:06 PM

Prop #33: [Game 4] Carlos Boozer Total Rebounds OVER 12 [-115]
This very likely will be Boozer's last game in a Utah Jazz uniform as he is expected to be in a new area code next season. Boozer has been a rebounding machine in the postseason. He has hit 12 boards or more in 7 of 9 in the playoffs. He has equaled 12 rebounds or better in all three vs. the Lakers this series. Love him. Hate him. No one really knows what Jazz fans like except marrying a lot of women at the same time. I'm expecting an inspired Boozer performance and so long as he can keep himself from landing in foul trouble, I believe he has a shot to at least equal the number of 12 again and could surpass it as he did in Game 3 with 14.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 09:25 PM

The 3 prop finally went over tonight with Orlando by themselves. Definitely ready to hit that prop in the Conference Finals. Boston or Cleveland, I'll ride it as long as they don't put it higher than 16.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 07:09 AM

Updated Record: 20-13 [+4.05]

Boozer had 14.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 04:01 PM

Prop #34: [Game 5] Ray Allen Total Points OVER 16.5 [-120]
So much talk about who might guard Rajon Rondo tonight and I think that is all going to play into Boston's hands this evening. It doesn't take a brain scientist to know that if LeBron guards Rondo, there is a mismatch somewhere else. Everyone assumes it will lead Paul Pierce to get better opportunities. Perhaps, but let's not forget the "third wheel" for the Celtics, Ray Allen. Allen hoisted up 21 shots in Game 4 in route to 18 points. He was ice cold from beyond the arc at 1 for 8, but if you tell me Ray Allen is going to get 8 looks at threes in any game, I am going to go with the OVER for the number of points he'll put up. Outside of Game 3 where he got just 9 shots, Allen has averaged just over 16 shot attempts in the other 3 games. He's not shooting exceptionally well, but the majority of his shots have been decent open looks. In Game 4, he really did a nice job of not just relying on the 3 as he made 7 of 13 from two point territory. Allen beat this number in 3 of the 4 regular season encounters with the Cavaliers and has beaten it twice this series. I think if Allen remains aggressive and drives to the hoop a little more like he did in Game 4, the threes will fall if he's getting the looks and that makes this a decent shot to cash.

**THE HITMAN** · 05-11-10, 08:32 PM

GL tonite, guys

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 08:43 PM

Updated Record: 21-13 [+5.05]

Straight bank again for Ray Allen. Two threes in the first minute of the 3rd quarter and it's done.

**THE HITMAN** · 05-12-10, 04:55 PM

Good one, Eagles.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-13-10, 05:14 PM

Prop #35: [Game 6] Anderson Varejao Total Points + Rebounds OVER 12.5 [-105]
I've always tried to remind myself to trust my instincts and live with it. That's what this pick is, so intestinal fortitude is needed here as no stat from this series will give you an indication that Varejao is necessarily going to get this trick done. However, there has been talk of a shuffle in the Cavs rotation for this evening. The theory amongst most is that we can expect some more Varejao with Jamison on the floor at the same time, allowing Jamison to slide to the 3 while Varejao goes at Garnett. Don't know if that will come to fruition or not, but in my mind - Varejao must play more minutes. Cleveland needs the energy. Varejao has been nursing a sore back for some time, but he has played he has been able to play 20+ minutes in 7 of the Cavs 10 postseason games. If there's a time for him to play at least 20 minutes if not more ... an elimination game is it. Consider that Varejao was a thorn in the side of the Celtics in the regular season. In three meetings, these were his lines:

17 pts/10 boards in 30 minutes
14 pts/10 boards in 30 minutes
9 points/7 boards in 32 minutes

Only the 9/7 game was a start for Varejao in the season opener. The other two meetings came after the Jamison trade. Coincidentally, Cleveland won both those games by double digits. I'd love Varejao to get 30 minutes in which case this prop would have a solid shot to cash, but I think even 24-25 minutes gives him a legit shot considering he did have 5/8 in Game 5 in just 19 minutes. It's nut up or shut up time for the Cavs, let's see how smart or dumb Mike Brown is tonight with his rotation. Varejao's athleticism would help defensively on KG and in transition/rebounding. Do it or screw it.

**THE HITMAN** · 05-13-10, 05:38 PM

Gonna give the over 3's a ride tonite. I found 11.5 - 115 at Carib, so I will go with that. They busted over that number last game but the line stayed the same (Carib). I am hoping this prop will even itself out as the unders have ruled so far. I just think it is reasonable.
Ray Allen is sitting out there at over 18 at a sweet +115 at Carib and I am giving that a look see now. The over 17.5's are out there at -115 & - 120, so for 30-35 cents if I push at 18, it's OK.
GL tonite