70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

[SexyMit]

IF your going by Brandon Roy being out he has been out longer then a week! When a starter has been out longer then a week there is a new starter taking his place!

[barts185]

Brandon Roy has not been a starter for a while (now listed as 3rd string) and hasnt really been a factor or played for Portland since the beginning of January. Personally, I feel that is significant enough time for the lines to adjust and for him to not be considered in the injury filter. Of course, as always, the injury filter decision is up for debate, but for me, I am calling this a play.

Good luck to everyone no matter what you decide.

Not debating the play, just wondering where you see him listed as 3rd string? Is this because of the injury, or is there some site saying he was their third string?

He played up until January 13th when he logged 27 minutes. In every January Portland game before that, he logged 38 minutes or more (usually above 40).


Thanks,
Bart

[aoz1122]

ESPN.com has updated depth charts, they also have game longs for every game showing player stats for every game. Go to the team page on ESPN.com

[NBAStats]

He is obviously listed on the depth chart like that because of injury.

[og4667]

FYI...the last system loss was on the Suns @ Utah as 7 pt dogs and Utah covered. Today the system picks the Blazers @ Utah so good luck if you play it. I think the downside of the system is that it can't measure home court advantage in a place like Utah.

[barts185]

FYI...the last system loss was on the Suns @ Utah as 7 pt dogs and Utah covered. Today the system picks the Blazers @ Utah so good luck if you play it. I think the downside of the system is that it can't measure home court advantage in a place like Utah.

I agree that home court advantage is NOT the same for all teams. A recent article calculated Utah's home court advantage at 5. If you use that, this would come out as no play. But, the system says 3, so that's what is used.

[jakeandba]

Barts are you playing portland tonight?

[barts185]

Barts are you playing portland tonight?

Yes, but I'm playing them for about 1/4 of what I normally play on these plays.

[Airjoe30jb]

[Hawk007]

Thanks Bart!

Gonna pass on this one, just doesnt feel right.....GL!

[og4667]

I agree that home court advantage is NOT the same for all teams. A recent article calculated Utah's home court advantage at 5. If you use that, this would come out as no play. But, the system says 3, so that's what is used.

That is great info. for the system's sake this will should be an official play but as always this info should only validate your own decisions.

[bigboyfosho]

good info

[Niko]

I'm watching you're tracking, tracking... could anyone to post current record?

[og4667]

current record 14-4

[Welt446+]

Looks like the Rockets +5 for Feb 5th

[incomeraise]

i have been waiting 2 long to jump on, i think its time now...

[JimmerJammer]

let's do this

[owll52]

Barts185 Spreadsheet

What happened to Barts spreadsheet? When I tried to run it this morning it would not open.

[JohnAnthony]

Looks like the Rockets +5 for Feb 5th

Can anyone confirm this?

[AdaBarber]

Can anyone confirm this?

They both have the same record and anyway you shake it (+/-3 home) this is not a play.

[JohnAnthony]

They both have the same record and anyway you shake it (+/-3 home) this is not a play.

Huh? the line is @ +5.

[AdaBarber]

Huh? the line is @ +5.

I know that. You have to put the home advantage in the equation. They both have the same record. Either way you input it doesn't come out to be over 10 to make it a play.

[JohnAnthony]

I know that. You have to put the home advantage in the equation. They both have the same record. Either way you input it doesn't come out to be over 10 to make it a play.

I understand. Thanks for taking the time to explain this

[francescosol]

Hi. About me Rockets is the play today.
542-542=0 /20 = 0 +3 (home team) = 3 - 5 (spread) = -2
Play the other ATS. Away team is a play if there are no important injures

[AdaBarber]

I understand. Thanks for taking the time to explain this

U r welcome. I used the spreadsheet provided by Mundane and it came out to be 2 and an 8 depending on who you use for the home winning team.

[AdaBarber]

Hi. About me Rockets is the play today.
542-542=0 /20 = 0 +3 (home team) = 3 - 5 (spread) = -2
Play the other ATS. Away team is a play if there are no important injures

Maybe the spreadsheet I used is not calculated correctly. I will try again.

[francescosol]

Maybe the spreadsheet I used is not calculated correctly. I will try again.

let me know... we must be 100% sure that Rockets is the play today and its better control this by more possible persons

[AdaBarber]

Hi. About me Rockets is the play today.
542-542=0 /20 = 0 +3 (home team) = 3 - 5 (spread) = -2
Play the other ATS. Away team is a play if there are no important injures

Since they both have the same record who is the team to use? If you use Houston as the better team then it comes out:

542-542=0 /20 = 0 -3(away team) = -3 + 5(spread) = 2 No Play

So is there a rule for two teams with the same record?

[aoz1122]

I am inclined to agree this could be a play. The system basically gives the home team a 3 point advantage ATS, and in this case with all other things being equal, the lines makers are giving Houston, the visiting team, 5 points, so in the math of this system, I say that makes them a play. OF course everyone use your own discretion, but I say mathematically, it is a play.

[francescosol]

I am inclined to agree this could be a play. The system basically gives the home team a 3 point advantage ATS, and in this case with all other things being equal, the lines makers are giving Houston, the visiting team, 5 points, so in the math of this system, I say that makes them a play. OF course everyone use your own discretion, but I say mathematically, it is a play.

agree

but better wait the opinion from experts

[aoz1122]

Here are my numbers for today:


02/05/10 A Washington 12 16 32 33.333333% NO -8.0068
02/05/10 H Orlando -12 33 16 67.346939% YES 8.0068

02/05/10 A Detroit 3.5 16 31 34.042553% NO 0.1743
02/05/10 H Indiana -3.5 17 32 34.693878% YES -0.1743

02/05/10 A New Jersey 13 4 44 8.333333% NO -18.8121
02/05/10 H Boston -13 31 16 65.957447% YES 18.8121
NO PLAY, D.D. SPREAD


02/05/10 A Milwaukee 2.5 21 26 44.680851% YES 2.0488
02/05/10 H New York -2.5 19 29 39.583333% NO -2.0488

02/05/10 A Chicago 8 23 24 48.936170% NO -2.8236
02/05/10 H Atlanta -8 31 17 64.583333% YES 2.8236

02/05/10 A Houston 5 26 22 54.166667% NO* 2.0000
02/05/10 H Memphis -5 26 22 54.166667% NO* -2.0000
RECCOMEND PLAY HOUSTON +5


02/05/10 A Philadelphia 2.5 17 31 35.416667% NO-9.3223
02/05/10 H New Orleans -2.5 26 23 53.061224% YES 9.3223

02/05/10 A Minnesota 10.5 11 36 23.404255% NO -12.4305
02/05/10 H Dallas -10.5 31 18 63.265306% YES 12.4305
NO PLAY, D.D. SPREAD

02/05/10 A Phoenix -3 30 21 58.823529% YES 6.7451
02/05/10 H Sacramento 3 16 32 33.333333% NO -6.7451

02/05/10 A Denver 8.5 33 16 67.346939% NO 1.1735
02/05/10 H LA Lakers -8.5 38 12 76.000000% YES -1.1735
NO PLAY ON DENVER, BILLUPS & ANTHONY INJURED

[francescosol]

Since they both have the same record who is the team to use? If you use Houston as the better team then it comes out:

542-542=0 /20 = 0 -3(away team) = -3 + 5(spread) = 2 No Play

So is there a rule for two teams with the same record?

you are right. i also verify this.
but i think we must take as selected team, the team give points (memphis -5)
with Memphis as selected team, the system work

[Gopi-1]

Here are my numbers for today:


02/05/10 A Washington 12 16 32 33.333333% NO -8.0068
02/05/10 H Orlando -12 33 16 67.346939% YES 8.0068

02/05/10 A Detroit 3.5 16 31 34.042553% NO 0.1743
02/05/10 H Indiana -3.5 17 32 34.693878% YES -0.1743

02/05/10 A New Jersey 13 4 44 8.333333% NO -18.8121
02/05/10 H Boston -13 31 16 65.957447% YES 18.8121
NO PLAY, D.D. SPREAD


02/05/10 A Milwaukee 2.5 21 26 44.680851% YES 2.0488
02/05/10 H New York -2.5 19 29 39.583333% NO -2.0488

02/05/10 A Chicago 8 23 24 48.936170% NO -2.8236
02/05/10 H Atlanta -8 31 17 64.583333% YES 2.8236

02/05/10 A Houston 5 26 22 54.166667% NO* 2.0000
02/05/10 H Memphis -5 26 22 54.166667% NO* -2.0000
RECCOMEND PLAY HOUSTON +5


02/05/10 A Philadelphia 2.5 17 31 35.416667% NO-9.3223
02/05/10 H New Orleans -2.5 26 23 53.061224% YES 9.3223

02/05/10 A Minnesota 10.5 11 36 23.404255% NO -12.4305
02/05/10 H Dallas -10.5 31 18 63.265306% YES 12.4305
NO PLAY, D.D. SPREAD

02/05/10 A Phoenix -3 30 21 58.823529% YES 6.7451
02/05/10 H Sacramento 3 16 32 33.333333% NO -6.7451

02/05/10 A Denver 8.5 33 16 67.346939% NO 1.1735
02/05/10 H LA Lakers -8.5 38 12 76.000000% YES -1.1735
NO PLAY ON DENVER, BILLUPS & ANTHONY INJURED

Billups' injury is confirmed and won't play tonight?

[aoz1122]

agree but better wait the opinion from experts

Who are the experts? I do have an education and experience in mathematics and statistics, so I am pretty sure I have a good grip on what the math in this system actually represents. The math in this system is simply pointing out where the posted lines are not coinciding with the winning % of the teams playing, pointing out an advantage one way or another based on the winning %'s of each team. So I believe the system, in and of itself, says to play Houston +5.

However, there is a flip side to this coin. I have been developing a statistical system of my own for betting NBA games which looks more in depth and splits the winning % up by home and road games. In this case, Houston is 45.833% on the road and Memphis is 75% at home. In this scenario Memphis is the clear favorite, even giving up 5 points. See Below:

A Houston 5 11 13 45.833333% NO -12.5833
H Memphis -5 18 6 75.000000% YES 12.5833

...Just a little something to chew on...

[aoz1122]

Billups' injury is confirmed and won't play tonight?

Billups is listes as DTD, but I think he will probably play. Carmelo though will not play tonight.