70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

**aoz1122** · 01-28-10, 12:01 PM

NO plays today.

Toronto: 6.1324
Boston: 2.8016
Dallas: 4.6738

**barts185** · 01-28-10, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

Thanks for the info Barts185, but i think ill wait for Bustabook's version to to the stats.

I'm new, so I had to search. Only thing I see from Bustabook in this whole thread was back on page 1. From further searching, it looks like he's doing his own simulation, not this.

If someone's doing an "official" version, by all means wait for that. I was just trying to make something simple that would help since it seemed like people were having a hard time coming up with the numbers every day and the first spreadsheet I see seemed like it would be more work than the one I made.

**aoz1122** · 01-28-10, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by barts185

I'm new, so I had to search. Only thing I see from Bustabook in this whole thread was back on page 1. From further searching, it looks like he's doing his own simulation, not this.

If someone's doing an "official" version, by all means wait for that. I was just trying to make something simple that would help since it seemed like people were having a hard time coming up with the numbers every day and the first spreadsheet I see seemed like it would be more work than the one I made.

I created a program which does the calculations every day automatically. I will try to post them each morning, if I have the time.

**barts185** · 01-28-10, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

I created a program which does the calculations every day automatically. I will try to post them each morning, if I have the time.

I know I'd appreciate it, even if just to check my numbers. It takes me about a minute or so now with the spreadsheet (even if it's not the "official" version

).

For example, today my numbers were

Toronto: 5.65 (I'm guessing you're using a line of 3.5 and that's the difference)
Boston: 2.8
Dallas: 4.7

Take Care,
Bart

**losturmarbles** · 01-28-10, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by barts185

If someone's doing an "official" version, by all means wait for that. I was just trying to make something simple that would help since it seemed like people were having a hard time coming up with the numbers every day and the first spreadsheet I see seemed like it would be more work than the one I made.

there's no official version. the original spreadsheet is just something one of the posters made. i can't remember who. (may have been mundane) but i didn't like the way it was set up, so i never used it. i was going to make my own spreadsheet that downloaded the schedule and the lines automatically but i never got around to doing it.

i had a generic spreadsheet that i used last year that did the math for me, but i think i lost it. mundane kept up with everything last year anyway and posted the plays.

i just searched and found last year's thread and the genesis of the system (here on sbr anyway).

NBA Math

NBA Math excel sheet (beta)

"70% math play" system tracking

**aoz1122** · 01-29-10, 10:53 AM

Below are the automatic results from my program I put together.

Note: The "YES" on each line does not mean it is a play, just the computer selected that team as the higher winning% in the matchup. It really is meaningless for the post here, but I am too lazy to go and delete them all.

Date H /A Teams Spread W L Win % Selection Calculation

01/29/10 A Cleveland ‐6.5 36 11 76.595745% YES 11.4066
Mulitple Injuries, NO PLAY

01/29/10 A LA Lakers ‐6 35 11 76.086957% YES 12.3768
Artest D2D, but not out. I SAY PLAY

01/29/10 A Boston 4 29 14 67.441860% YES 1.7664

01/29/10 A Washington ‐3 14 30 31.818182% YES 5.3636

01/29/10 A Miami ‐1 23 22 51.111111% YES 4.5101

01/29/10 A LA Clippers ‐1 20 25 44.444444% YES 8.6478

01/29/10 A Denver 1.5 31 14 68.888889% YES 6.2778

01/29/10 H New Orleans ‐4.5 25 20 55.555556% YES 1.2778

01/29/10 H San Antonio ‐4 26 18 59.090909% YES 0.1364

01/29/10 A Portland 5.5 27 20 57.446809% YES 4.5567

01/29/10 H Utah ‐9 27 18 60.000000% YES 5.8182

01/29/10 A Charlotte -1.5 22 22 50.000000% YES 5.7273

**barts185** · 01-29-10, 12:04 PM

aoz1122,

Thanks for showing the numbers.

I have 2 questions:

1) Are you just taking whatever the line is at the time you run it, or are you getting the opening line from a specific place? It seems like some of the lines are off from what I see as opening lines.

2) Are you using Charlotte +1.5? That's the only way I get close to your number. I don't see Charlotte ever being the dog, they've been -1.5. Other than that, looks like I get your numbers (close enough, since I'm rounding to 3 decimal places) once I use the pointspreads you are using.

Thanks,
Bart

**aoz1122** · 01-29-10, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by barts185

aoz1122, Thanks for showing the numbers. I have 2 questions: 1) Are you just taking whatever the line is at the time you run it, or are you getting the opening line from a specific place? It seems like some of the lines are off from what I see as opening lines. 2) Are you using Charlotte +1.5? That's the only way I get close to your number. I don't see Charlotte ever being the dog, they've been -1.5. Other than that, looks like I get your numbers (close enough, since I'm rounding to 3 decimal places) once I use the pointspreads you are using. Thanks, Bart

1.) I get the lines from my sports book at the time I run the numbers. They usually the lines that my book opens with since I run this right around the time they release their lines. So I guess you could say I use the opening lines at my book.

2.) Thanks for pointing out the line on Charlotte. I made an error this morning and entered +1.5 rather that -1.5. Their number should be 5.7273 Thanks for the catch. I will edit my original post.

**og4667** · 01-29-10, 01:20 PM

great job Aoz thanks for posting.

**RetardStrength** · 01-29-10, 01:23 PM

What about Lakers/Sixers?

**aoz1122** · 01-29-10, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by RetardStrength

What about Lakers/Sixers?

What are you asking about the Lakers/Sixers?

**aoz1122** · 01-29-10, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by og4667

great job Aoz thanks for posting.

You got it, of course points are always appreciated

**thenry2289** · 01-29-10, 02:16 PM

Thanks for doing the work in the spread....I'm tryin to understand it though.

I see Lakers a play but who else??? Bc I see alot of yes words lol

**RetardStrength** · 01-29-10, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

What are you asking about the Lakers/Sixers?

Whoops!! I see it now!!

**bigboyfosho** · 01-29-10, 02:53 PM

thanks

**barts185** · 01-29-10, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by thenry2289

Thanks for doing the work in the spread....I'm tryin to understand it though.

I see Lakers a play but who else??? Bc I see alot of yes words lol

Lakers are the only play.

**thenry2289** · 01-29-10, 03:18 PM

Thank man I really appreciate your work

**barts185** · 01-29-10, 03:22 PM

Glad to help - and thanks for the points, always appeciated (even if I'm not quite sure what to use them for yet

)

**cashil** · 01-29-10, 03:24 PM

Thanks BOL to us all

**freeVICK** · 01-29-10, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by barts185

Glad to help - and thanks for the points, always appeciated (even if I'm not quite sure what to use them for yet

)

bet all your points on the lakers tonight

**og4667** · 01-29-10, 03:51 PM

does anybody have the YTD record for this system...too lazy to look back into previous posts. thanks.

**og4667** · 01-29-10, 04:05 PM

nevermind I did it myself...the current record is 13-4 for this season. last 3 wins have been Bucks +7, Pacers +4.5, and Lakers -8 @ Wiz. Tonight the pending play is Lakers -6 (opening line).

**PatrickBateman** · 01-30-10, 01:32 AM

System is on fire right now!

**sneak-a-peak** · 01-30-10, 05:10 AM

Hey guys, I have been following this system all year and must say I really like the foundation of this system and its potential for success. I live in Cleveland and I sat back tonight and watched my Cavs steam roll all over the Pacers and could not help but to be reminded that this was oh so close to being another play and WIN for the system except for the fact that Mo is out.

So of course it got me thinking about the injury filter which I'm certain has a definite place in the system but I just think that it is very vague with its description and I think its time for everyone that participates in this thread to discuss and define it better.

Now for those of you that are familiar with the origin of this system being brought here to SBR know that we have no way of asking the original creators of the system to be a little more specific with the injury filter. The problem I have is that the only thing it says is "Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters." So in the Cavs situation Mo is out 4-6 weeks, are we really supposed to void Cleveland (the best team in the league) as a play for that long??? That just does not make a whole lot of sense to me which is the way its setup right now.

I went back to last years thread to look and see their discussions on the injury filter and I found a post that was copied from another forum but also from the known roots of this system and it seemed to me that the guy who posted the particular post had some kind of knowledge of the original creator. He suggested that maybe the "Allow one week for return starters" meant that what you do is if a starter is out- no play and then you allow one week to go by for the starter to return and if they do or they don't you "play" the team normally. By allowing one week to go by there is time for the team to make adjustments if the player is going to be out for a extended amount of time- which makes sense to me and I'm in favor of because the way we have it setup now is that if say someone like Mo is OUT for only one game we void all Cavs plays for a whole week after his return which in essence it was just a extra day off in between games.

Now on the flip side of the Cavs situation you have a team like Boston that when KG goes down they certainly are not the same team (but at the same time even the point spread will start to reflect that at some point). For those situations maybe we can steal a page from the JM system and void all plays if the "best player" on the team is out if we do decide to adjust the injury filter to the above mentioned?

I do favor strictness for the system but what I'm saying is I just don't see why the Cavs or any other solid team with depth should be voided for that long of a period of time.....

Those are my thoughts on the subject . Let me know what any of you think about this.

**Joe Dogs** · 01-30-10, 07:25 AM

Another win

**Pensinger1** · 01-30-10, 07:59 AM

**Sawyer** · 01-30-10, 08:24 AM

Nice Shot, Congrats!

This system is the same system with LarryLegend's System? or it's a different system?

**sportsbob** · 01-30-10, 08:25 AM

Good Luck Guys....Hope the system works out!

**Busterflywheel** · 01-30-10, 08:31 AM

Great call... I hope this system proves successful.

**barts185** · 01-30-10, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Nice Shot, Congrats!

This system is the same system with LarryLegend's System? or it's a different system?

Since I got involved in this system here, I've been told about the other thread at the other place. It seems to me that it's the same system, but he seems to come up with more plays, not sure if it's doing something different with the filter or not.

Take Care,
Bart

**barts185** · 01-30-10, 10:55 AM

My thoughts on injuries are that it's mostly a personal decision.

To those who feel that waiting a week if a starter is out and then playing, I'll ask - what if more than 1 starter is out? If you are going to set up guidelines to follow, to me it's simpler to say that if a starter is out, you don't play until they come back, and then wait a week for the readjustment. I'm not saying that's the most profitable way to use the system, but it's the one that will leave the least amount of question as to whether or not something is a play.

If you're going to pass if the "best" player is out, what about teams where it isn't as simple as picking a LeBron? What criteria would you use to determine best player?

For a lopsided example, take any good team (since this could be good for some of the worst teams), and let's say that team is involved in a major accident while travelling and all of the starters are out the rest of the season (don't want to get too ugly, so no one dies, just injured bad enough that they won't be able to play the rest of the season). Will you wait a week for the lines to adjust and then start using that team with the record which was built by people who are not going to be playing the rest of the season?

**barts185** · 01-30-10, 11:03 AM

For today, Saturday, 01/30/10, NO PLAYS.

I didn't even need to check any injuries since the only teams which qualified are playing on back to back, so that disqualifies them.

selected team, line, final value, comment
Hawks, +5, 2.75
Grizzlies, -5, -1.35, Hornets are playing back to back, so NO PLAY.
Knicks, PK, 0.35
Heat, +4, 5.5
Mavericks, -8.5, -1.05, Trailblazers are playing back to back, so NO PLAY.
Bobcats, -1, 3.75

Good Luck,
Bart

**og4667** · 01-30-10, 11:35 AM

alright cashed big on the lakers and cavs last night, SU and parlay. The official record for this system is now 14-4 so it is hitting at 77%. I wonder if it will have a cooling down period since it has hit at 70% previous years. Either way, thats great.

Does anybody know if there is something similar to this system for NCAAB?

**sneak-a-peak** · 01-30-10, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by barts185

My thoughts on injuries are that it's mostly a personal decision.

To those who feel that waiting a week if a starter is out and then playing, I'll ask - what if more than 1 starter is out? If you are going to set up guidelines to follow, to me it's simpler to say that if a starter is out, you don't play until they come back, and then wait a week for the readjustment. I'm not saying that's the most profitable way to use the system, but it's the one that will leave the least amount of question as to whether or not something is a play.

If you're going to pass if the "best" player is out, what about teams where it isn't as simple as picking a LeBron? What criteria would you use to determine best player?

For a lopsided example, take any good team (since this could be good for some of the worst teams), and let's say that team is involved in a major accident while travelling and all of the starters are out the rest of the season (don't want to get too ugly, so no one dies, just injured bad enough that they won't be able to play the rest of the season). Will you wait a week for the lines to adjust and then start using that team with the record which was built by people who are not going to be playing the rest of the season?

Hey Bart thanks for your thoughts on my question. Mundane is the one that started this thread this year and I've been looking back trying to find light and more detail about injuries and did not realize it until just now but he posts the following on post 31 of this thread in reference to a question from someone who asks about a starter being out for one week....

Originally Posted by mundane
Q (if a supposed starter has been out for a week, i'd say the team is good to go!
i believe it reciprocates this rule ~ Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters.)

A ("yes! if they've been out for a week or at least 3 games, teams are good to go!")

Therefore the Cavs should have been a play. So I think that we may want to have this as the guideline of the injury filter for a "official system play"- but of course also like you mentioned it will be anyones personal decision too as to if they choose to go ahead and play the play for themselves.

I think its usually pretty easy to decipher who the best player is on most teams but for teams that its not as clear cut maybe use leading scorer as a tie breaker.

For badly banged up teams we will need to pay more special attention to but I think if you get as high as to all 5 starters on a team being out you obviously steer clear of that particular team

**Meestermike** · 01-30-10, 07:31 PM

I agree with the discussion regarding injuries to starters. If a starter is out, you don't play until they come back, and then wait a week for the readjustment.

let's say that team is involved in a major accident while travelling and all of the starters are out the rest of the season (don't want to get too ugly, so no one dies, just injured bad enough that they won't be able to play the rest of the season).

Will you wait a week for the lines to adjust and then start using that team with the record which was built by people who are not going to be playing the rest of the season? YES in my opinion.