70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

[Gopi-1]

Billups is listes as DTD, but I think he will probably play. Carmelo though will not play tonight.

Thnx and BOL to your plays today!

[francescosol]

Who are the experts? I do have an education and experience in mathematics and statistics, so I am pretty sure I have a good grip on what the math in this system actually represents. The math in this system is simply pointing out where the posted lines are not coinciding with the winning % of the teams playing, pointing out an advantage one way or another based on the winning %'s of each team. So I believe the system, in and of itself, says to play Houston +5.

However, there is a flip side to this coin. I have been developing a statistical system of my own for betting NBA games which looks more in depth and splits the winning % up by home and road games. In this case, Houston is 45.833% on the road and Memphis is 75% at home. In this scenario Memphis is the clear favorite, even giving up 5 points. See Below:

A Houston 5 11 13 45.833333% NO -12.5833
H Memphis -5 18 6 75.000000% YES 12.5833

...Just a little something to chew on...

nice for me to know you are expert.
but after your last consideration of 75% memphis at home, Rockets will be the same the today play?

[Welt446+]

The only play today is the Rockets

[Welt446+]

Who are the experts? I do have an education and experience in mathematics and statistics, so I am pretty sure I have a good grip on what the math in this system actually represents. The math in this system is simply pointing out where the posted lines are not coinciding with the winning % of the teams playing, pointing out an advantage one way or another based on the winning %'s of each team. So I believe the system, in and of itself, says to play Houston +5.

However, there is a flip side to this coin. I have been developing a statistical system of my own for betting NBA games which looks more in depth and splits the winning % up by home and road games. In this case, Houston is 45.833% on the road and Memphis is 75% at home. In this scenario Memphis is the clear favorite, even giving up 5 points. See Below:

A Houston 5 11 13 45.833333% NO -12.5833
H Memphis -5 18 6 75.000000% YES 12.5833

...Just a little something to chew on...

Thank you. I appreciate extra info like that. Do you happen to know what the 70% system record is with this in consideration?

[Welt446+]

I know that. You have to put the home advantage in the equation. They both have the same record. Either way you input it doesn't come out to be over 10 to make it a play.

Fade at -1 or below

[barts185]

My $0.02 on today's games (and I am NOT an expert) :

1) In the Rockets/Grizzlies game, my understanding (and I would really like to hear from anyone who has anything that makes this not the case) was that the team with the higher win percentage was the selected team. If both teams have the same win percentage, there is no team with a higher win percentage, so in my opinion, there is no play on the game.

My spreadsheet did not take into account the possibility that 2 teams would have the same win percentage. If this gets sorted out, I'll change the spreadsheet to take it into account. At the very least, I'm going to change the spreadsheet so that if it's the same win percentage, it points that out.


2) In the Nuggets/Lakers game, it seems like we come back to the injury question. I don't see anyone chiming in that the Nuggets should be a because Anthony has been out for more than a week. The last game he played in was on 01/25. They have played 6 games since then. I don't see anything to indicate that Billups won't play. He played 35 minutes in their last game.


For those that care, as of now (this could change), I haven't played either game.

Good Luck,
Bart

[aoz1122]

Thank you. I appreciate extra info like that. Do you happen to know what the 70% system record is with this in consideration?

I am working on that in my spare time. I am working on changing some of the parameters b/c doing it that way really creates a larger separation between the winning percentages, therefore creating a lot more plays. I am working on going back and filtering out back to back games and injuries, but it is very time consuming.

[Welt446+]

My $0.02 on today's games (and I am NOT an expert) :

2) In the Nuggets/Lakers game, it seems like we come back to the injury question. I don't see anyone chiming in that the Nuggets should be a because Anthony has been out for more than a week. The last game he played in was on 01/25. They have played 6 games since then. I don't see anything to indicate that Billups won't play. He played 35 minutes in their last game.

Aren't the numbers hugely in favor of the Lakers for that game?

[Meestermike]

IMO no play today on HOU is the only play. Pass the game. There's always another tomorrow. Why press to make a play. I say just watch and enjoy the game if you can.

[PatrickBateman]

I see lakes/ nuggs as a no play based on math

[lasker]

It seems tonight's play is Houston. Good luck!

[barts185]

Lakers / Nuggets math, when the line was Lakers -8.5

The line has moved down, and back, to -8.5. At less than -8.5 the math would not indicate a play on the Nuggets.

Lakers 760
Nuggets 673

Lakers are the selected team.

Subtract 760-673=87
divide by 20 87/20=4.35

Lakers are the home team, so add 3, 4.35 + 3 =7.35

Add the line. 7.35 + (-8.5) = -1.15

Less than -1, so play the opposite.

Now the question is, does Anthony being out make the Nuggets not a play? While I don't necessarily agree with it, thought that the consensus was that after a week, it was going to count. Anthony has been out for over a week.

[owll52]

Lakers / Nuggets math, when the line was Lakers -8.5

The line has moved down, and back, to -8.5. At less than -8.5 the math would not indicate a play on the Nuggets.

Lakers 760
Nuggets 673

Lakers are the selected team.

Subtract 760-673=87
divide by 20 87/20=4.35

Lakers are the home team, so add 3, 4.35 + 3 =7.35

Add the line. 7.35 + (-8.5) = -1.15

Less than -1, so play the opposite.

Now the question is, does Anthony being out make the Nuggets not a play? While I don't necessarily agree with it, thought that the consensus was that after a week, it was going to count. Anthony has been out for over a week.

Barts Could you repost your streedsheet it seems when the server crashed it knocked out your spreedsheet

[jakeandba]

So Barts are you playing against Lakers?

The only reason i ask is because you usually play the system conservative, which allows for the best chance to make money.

Thanks.

[barts185]

Here's the spreadsheet.

Take Care,
Bart

[barts185]

So Barts are you playing against Lakers?

The only reason i ask is because you usually play the system conservative, which allows for the best chance to make money.

Thanks.

I am not personally playing either of the games tonight.

Good Luck,
Bart

[jakeandba]

thanks my man, learned the hard way not in it for the action....in it for the profit and one of the keys is to pick spots, when i have the advantage...dont like to waste profit on action, again this is just me.

[owll52]

Here's the spreadsheet.

Take Care,
Bart

Thanx. I think when the server crashed it wiped out a lot of the spreadsheets

[barts185]

You're welcome. It took me a while to realize that it also wiped out my subscribed threads. I just thought that the site was still down for quite awhile after it came back.


Also, last word on tonight's games - if forced to choose, I would lean towards Houston and Denver, and hope that anyone playing them is a winner.

Take Care,
Bart

[Welt446+]

Lakers / Nuggets math, when the line was Lakers -8.5

The line has moved down, and back, to -8.5. At less than -8.5 the math would not indicate a play on the Nuggets.

Lakers 760
Nuggets 673

Lakers are the selected team.

Subtract 760-673=87
divide by 20 87/20=4.35

Lakers are the home team, so add 3, 4.35 + 3 =7.35

Add the line. 7.35 + (-8.5) = -1.15

Less than -1, so play the opposite.

Now the question is, does Anthony being out make the Nuggets not a play? While I don't necessarily agree with it, thought that the consensus was that after a week, it was going to count. Anthony has been out for over a week.

Sorry...I don't know what I was thinking

[Welt446+]

IMO no play today on HOU is the only play. Pass the game. There's always another tomorrow. Why press to make a play. I say just watch and enjoy the game if you can.

I'm not sure what you mean by pressing to make it a play. The math matches up and says to fade Memphis, and the filters fit. It was an easy win. Houston didn't need the points.

[Lnn7]

When it's 2 teams with the same record, I think you have to take the home team as the selected team b/c they are the team at the advantage of home court, which is the same as the better team. So in this case, Houston should be an official play. So that make this system 15-4 now?

[barts185]

Sorry if I moved anyone off the winners last night.

I want to say again, I'm not an expert, just someone who came across this and tried to help by putting together a spreadsheet.


On today's games,

At the opener of -2, they don't qualify, but the line moved to -1.5, which would make the Bulls qualify mathematically, but no back to back games, so they are eliminated. I think this is just as well since the Bulls are bad in back to back situations this season.

At a line of -12.5, the Cavaliers would qualify, but no double digit favorites, so they are elminated.



Bottom line, no games today.


Also, it seems like the site I'm using to get the lines took some guesses as to what the lines would be overnight, so I want to again point out that you need to check the lines to make sure they are accurate.

Good Luck,
Bart

[og4667]

current record 15-5 with the last loss on Blazers 2/3 and the most recent win being the rockets last night.

[Lnn7]

current record 15-5 with the last loss on Blazers 2/3 and the most recent win being the rockets last night.

I think the blazers was a no play b/c Brandon Roy was injured. I don't think there should be any question about that because he is their best player.

[og4667]

I think the blazers was a no play b/c Brandon Roy was injured. I don't think there should be any question about that because he is their best player.

no, Portland was a play. Roy has been out long enough to qualify the Blazers as a play.

[Lnn7]

no, Portland was a play. Roy has been out long enough to qualify the Blazers as a play.

Before Brandon Roy got injured, the Blazers were a .600 team. Since he's been out, they're a .500 team for 12 games. When the blazers played the the Jazz their record was still .580 but really, the team that played on the court was only a .500 team maybe a little bit better at best. Injury is somewhat a preference call, but looking at the numbers and the impact that brandon roy has as being the best player on the team, it is smarter to consider it a no play. Remember you're not just replacing any starter, you're replacing the best player on the team and one of the top player in the league. No team can replace that kind of talent.

[Welt446+]

When it's 2 teams with the same record, I think you have to take the home team as the selected team b/c they are the team at the advantage of home court, which is the same as the better team. So in this case, Houston should be an official play. So that make this system 15-4 now?

Yep, plus the Rockets would have still been a play if Memphis had one more win than them.

[og4667]

Before Brandon Roy got injured, the Blazers were a .600 team. Since he's been out, they're a .500 team for 12 games. When the blazers played the the Jazz their record was still .580 but really, the team that played on the court was only a .500 team maybe a little bit better at best. Injury is somewhat a preference call, but looking at the numbers and the impact that brandon roy has as being the best player on the team, it is smarter to consider it a no play. Remember you're not just replacing any starter, you're replacing the best player on the team and one of the top player in the league. No team can replace that kind of talent.

I am not saying Blazers are better without Roy. Per the system rules the Blazers were a play.

[owll52]

Sorry if I moved anyone off the winners last night.

I want to say again, I'm not an expert, just someone who came across this and tried to help by putting together a spreadsheet.


On today's games,

At the opener of -2, they don't qualify, but the line moved to -1.5, which would make the Bulls qualify mathematically, but no back to back games, so they are eliminated. I think this is just as well since the Bulls are bad in back to back situations this season.

At a line of -12.5, the Cavaliers would qualify, but no double digit favorites, so they are elminated.



Bottom line, no games today.


Also, it seems like the site I'm using to get the lines took some guesses as to what the lines would be overnight, so I want to again point out that you need to check the lines to make sure they are accurate.

Good Luck,
Bart

I noticed that when I first started using it as a tool but man it sure has made it easier. Thank you again for sharing

[Busterflywheel]

Im starting to have a little faith in this system... Keep it up

[barts185]

I noticed that when I first started using it as a tool but man it sure has made it easier. Thank you again for sharing

Glad to help.

For Superbowl Sunday, no plays on the 2 games.

Good Luck,
Bart

[cashil]

thanks

[lovekamina]

and, can anybody tell how high the strike rate is so far for 09/10? around 60 % or even higher?

[Skyline]

Good job fellas , i don't know yet if there are any injuries but Dallas -4.5 should be a play against Golden State tomorrow (Correct me if i'm wrong). When i calculate with possible line movement which is going to be -5 or greater, the system says that it's not a play. Well, i'll also try to keep a record mutually. It seems that the system really works. Good luck.