70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

**sneak-a-peak** · 01-30-10, 09:47 PM

[quote=Meestermike;3076345]I agree with the discussion regarding injuries to starters. If a starter is out, you don't play until they come back, and then wait a week for the readjustment.

Thanks for your thoughts Mr Mike.

So teams like Portland should be voided the rest of the season cuz of guys like the Oden's and the Mcgrady's of the world? And so then why has Sacramento been counted as a "official play" a few times this year in this very thread when Kevin Martin was out for two months who is clearly a starter and their best player??? Which I know they won at least 2 for the current record we have. Which by the way we have been playing those 2 wins should not have ever been considered plays. Also when a starter misses just one game then the team is now a void for a whole week? Those things just seem counter productive to what we are trying to accomplish here.

This is what I mean- It just seems like people in this thread come in go and noone can say with certain what is the correct guideline with the injuries is. Everyone including myself has their own opinions. Case in point being that the guy who started this thread even though he said numerous times that this is not his system stated that "yes! if they've been out for a week or at least 3 games, teams are good to go" but yet noone that has been here lately has followed that guideline. So I guess thats why I'm confused.

There probably is not even a significantly huge amount of plays that separates the two therories on injuries but maybe we can track them both the rest of the way to see if either one has more of a advantage over the other. Maybe thats what it will take to come up with a precise answer to the question.

**SexyMit** · 01-31-10, 01:32 AM

Usually when a player has been out more then a week and will be out more then a week then the play should count as someone else has replaced him and now he is the starter.

**AdaBarber** · 01-31-10, 05:14 AM

After a week the play counts and after the player returns for a week then it becomes a play again.

**barts185** · 01-31-10, 11:11 AM

Sunday, 01/31/10

No plays. Nothing qualified on the numbers, no need to worry about injuries today.

**PatrickBateman** · 01-31-10, 12:05 PM

Has anyone tried this out with NCAABB? I realize that since the major programs usually play buttercup teams early that is might skew the numbers. How about a strength of schedule filter or something? Just wondering if anyone has tried this in College and has the data. I don't have excel and testing it myself would take forever since I must put all the numbers into a calculator manually.

**snapstick** · 01-31-10, 02:32 PM

Why isnt Houston a play

**barts185** · 01-31-10, 02:39 PM

Not trying to be a pain, but why do you think they should be a play?

Would appreciate it if you showed the math when asking.

If the spreadsheet is doing something wrong, I would like to see the math so I can see where to fix it.

Rockets 543
Suns 563

So Suns is selected team
563-543 =20
20/20 = 1
Suns are a road team, so 1 -3 = -2
Line for the Suns is +3, so -2 +3 = 1.0

**snapstick** · 01-31-10, 02:41 PM

the Rockets went from a negative situation to a positive situation.

**mundane** · 01-31-10, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by og4667

alright cashed big on the lakers and cavs last night, SU and parlay. The official record for this system is now 14-4 so it is hitting at 77%. I wonder if it will have a cooling down period since it has hit at 70% previous years. Either way, thats great.

Does anybody know if there is something similar to this system for NCAAB?

14-4 ??? if that is correct.. then ive missed out on a lot of solid plays! oh well.

thanks for keeping track guys. 'been a hectic 2 mos for me. hopefully ill be back handicapping soon and raking in some money!

more power to this system! let's keep beating the books!

**barts185** · 01-31-10, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

the Rockets went from a negative situation to a positive situation.

I'm not sure what that means since the Rockets aren't the selected team.

Can you explain?

Thanks,
Bart

**Busterflywheel** · 01-31-10, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by mundane

14-4 ??? if that is correct.. then ive missed out on a lot of solid plays! oh well.

thanks for keeping track guys. 'been a hectic 2 mos for me. hopefully ill be back handicapping soon and raking in some money!

more power to this system! let's keep beating the books!

14-4 ...Thats solid...

**barts185** · 02-01-10, 11:54 AM

02/01/10

No plays.

Closest was Bucks, with the Heat being the selected team and the final number coming out -0.15 with a line of Heat -6.5.

Good Luck,
Bart

**aoz1122** · 02-01-10, 12:52 PM

Actually I have Phoenix at -1.5346, making NO mathematically eligible:

02/01/10 A Phoenix 1 27 21 56.250000% YES -1.5346 02/01/10 H New Orleans -1 26 21 55.319149% NO 1.5346
According to my calculations: N.O. would be a play tonight, but Chris Paul is injured so you can all decide on your strategy of playing v. not playing teams with injuries.

**PacmanJr_00** · 02-01-10, 01:03 PM

paul is done which eliminates No for the year in my opinion.

**barts185** · 02-01-10, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

Actually I have Phoenix at -1.5346, making NO mathematically eligible:

02/01/10 A Phoenix 1 27 21 56.250000% YES -1.5346 02/01/10 H New Orleans -1 26 21 55.319149% NO 1.5346
According to my calculations: N.O. would be a play tonight, but Chris Paul is injured so you can all decide on your strategy of playing v. not playing teams with injuries.

Line has moved from -2.5 to -1. At -1, NOR would qualify (Suns -1.1 final number), but this was 1.5 points away at the opening line of -2.5

Would be hard to say that Chris Paul isn't one of the starters no matter what you think about injuries. Having said that, they didn't do too badly without him when he was out before this.

**sneak-a-peak** · 02-01-10, 03:50 PM

Found this on another forum regarding injuries for basically the same system. It makes enough logical sense to me. I think this should be the standard guideline for the injury filter for now on in this thread. Also of course your personal preference will be at your own discretion.

As far as injuries go: Wait a week to see if the starter comes back. If he does, business as usual from his first game back. If he does not, then assess how the team has done without him. Judgement call. Season ending injuries, you pretty much have to assume he is not a starter.

**losturmarbles** · 02-01-10, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by PacmanJr_00

paul is done which eliminates No for the year in my opinion.

if going by the system, a new starter is playing and after a week and 3 games they are eligible again.

**aoz1122** · 02-01-10, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

if going by the system, a new starter is playing and after a week and 3 games they are eligible again.

Personally, I agree. Thats how I am going to apply the filter as well.

**bigboyfosho** · 02-01-10, 06:57 PM

Paul is deffinently a big facter going into a NO win

**aoz1122** · 02-02-10, 11:10 AM

I see no plays mathematically eligible today.

**barts185** · 02-02-10, 11:38 AM

I agree. Clippers came close, but then there's Kaman.

**scratbandit** · 02-02-10, 02:55 PM

Amazing thread been away for awhile and just came back. Will be following this real close.

**PacmanJr_00** · 02-02-10, 04:08 PM

thanks for clarifying the injury caveats

**lenahanj** · 02-02-10, 04:12 PM

i need this guy to come back the picks are spectactular

**aoz1122** · 02-03-10, 11:27 AM

A New Jersey 11 4 43 8.510638% NO -14.2753
H Toronto -11 26 23 53.061224% YES 14.2753

A LA Clippers 9.5 21 27 43.750000% NO -3.5399
H Atlanta -9.5 30 17 63.829787% YES 3.5399

A Chicago 2 23 23 50.000000% YES 6.9787
H Philadelphia -2 16 31 34.042553% NO -6.9787

A Washington 5.5 16 31 34.042553% NO 0.3723
H New York -5.5 18 29 38.297872% YES -0.3723

A Miami 6.5 24 24 50.000000% NO -4.1087
H Boston -6.5 30 16 65.217391% YES 4.1087

A Oklahoma City - 1 27 21 56.250000% YES -2.9583
H New Orleans +1 26 22 54.166667% NO 2.9583

A Golden State 11 13 34 27.659574% NO -9.4202
H Dallas -11 30 18 62.500000% YES 9.4202

A Portland 7 29 21 58.000000% NO 2.1489
H Utah -7 29 18 61.702128% YES -2.1489

A San Antonio 3.5 27 19 58.695652% YES 12.8265
H Sacramento -3.5 16 31 34.042553% NO -12.8265

A Phoenix 7.5 29 21 58.000000% NO -0.8750
H Denver -7.5 33 15 68.750000% YES 0.8750

A Charlotte 8.5 24 23 51.063830% NO -6.7232
H LA Lakers -8.5 37 12 75.510204% YES 6.7232

NEW JERSEY, NO PLAY D.D. Spread

PORTLAND, I SAY PLAY!!!

New Orelans, No Play Chris Paul Injury

San Antonio, no play, Tony Parker

**RetardStrength** · 02-03-10, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by aoz1122

NEW JERSEY, NO PLAY D.D. Spread

PORTLAND, I SAY PLAY!!!

San Antonio, no play, Tony Parker

Elaborate... The math looks like the play is Toronto, No??

You saying no play just cause of the DD spread?

**barts185** · 02-03-10, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by aoz1122

A New Jersey 11 4 43 8.510638% NO -14.2753
H Toronto -11 26 23 53.061224% YES 14.2753

A LA Clippers 9.5 21 27 43.750000% NO -3.5399
H Atlanta -9.5 30 17 63.829787% YES 3.5399

A Chicago 2 23 23 50.000000% YES 6.9787
H Philadelphia -2 16 31 34.042553% NO -6.9787

A Washington 5.5 16 31 34.042553% NO 0.3723
H New York -5.5 18 29 38.297872% YES -0.3723

A Miami 6.5 24 24 50.000000% NO -4.1087
H Boston -6.5 30 16 65.217391% YES 4.1087

A Oklahoma City 1 27 21 56.250000% YES -0.9583
H New Orleans -1 26 22 54.166667% NO 0.9583

A Golden State 11 13 34 27.659574% NO -9.4202
H Dallas -11 30 18 62.500000% YES 9.4202

A Portland 7 29 21 58.000000% NO 2.1489
H Utah -7 29 18 61.702128% YES -2.1489

A San Antonio 3.5 27 19 58.695652% YES 12.8265
H Sacramento -3.5 16 31 34.042553% NO -12.8265

A Phoenix 7.5 29 21 58.000000% NO -0.8750
H Denver -7.5 33 15 68.750000% YES 0.8750

A Charlotte 8.5 24 23 51.063830% NO -6.7232
H LA Lakers -8.5 37 12 75.510204% YES 6.7232

NEW JERSEY, NO PLAY D.D. Spread

PORTLAND, I SAY PLAY!!!

San Antonio, no play, Tony Parker

I think you have the line opposite in the NOR/OKC game, using a line of NOR +1 (if I read your post correctly, you used NOR -1) the number for OKC comes out to -2.95. It doesn't matter since Chris Paul is out, but even if you want to play teams after people have been out a week, don't think he's been out a week yet (first game he missed was on 01/30).

You also have the line opposite in the SAS game. When I saw your edit, was confused. SAS is -3.5, making the final result 5.85.

**barts185** · 02-03-10, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by RetardStrength

Elaborate... The math looks like the play is Toronto, No??

You saying no play just cause of the DD spread?

The system says it is not a play if the spread is -10 or higher.

**aoz1122** · 02-03-10, 11:53 AM

barts, you are right, I edited. I entered the line wrong this morning. Looks like the line has moved to 2 already anyhow.

**RetardStrength** · 02-03-10, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by barts185

The system says it is not a play if the spread is -10 or higher.

So what would be todays "plays?"

Thanks!!

**aoz1122** · 02-03-10, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by retardstrength

so what would be todays "plays?" thanks!!

portland

**snapstick** · 02-03-10, 12:42 PM

If you follow the injury filter portland is a no play. Their are injured starters for both teams that are out!

**barts185** · 02-03-10, 12:48 PM

Also, just so I understand, since he (Brandon Roy) has now been out a week or longer, when he comes back, Portland is not eligible to be a play for a week after he returns?

**aoz1122** · 02-03-10, 01:49 PM

Brandon Roy has not been a starter for a while (now listed as 3rd string) and hasnt really been a factor or played for Portland since the beginning of January. Personally, I feel that is significant enough time for the lines to adjust and for him to not be considered in the injury filter. Of course, as always, the injury filter decision is up for debate, but for me, I am calling this a play.

Good luck to everyone no matter what you decide.

**fsugolf** · 02-03-10, 02:10 PM

gl tonight if anyone makes a play