70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

AdaBarber · 02-10-10, 08:36 AM

Clippers played last night.

barts185 · 02-10-10, 10:53 AM

Both Portland and the Clippers played last night.

Regarding the Clippers game, not sure if there was an early line before last night's game somewhere of Clippers +6, but since the actual line is -2, I'll take this time to once again point out that if you are using the spreadsheet, you need to CHECK THE LINES. And if you're running it the day(night) beforehand, make sure the standings are updated.

aoz1122 · 02-10-10, 01:59 PM

Here are my calculations for today:

A Miami 7 25 27 48.076923% NO -4.9615
H Atlanta -7 33 17 66.000000% YES 4.9615

A Philadelphia 6 20 31 39.215686% NO -4.8431
H Toronto -6 28 23 54.901961% YES 4.8431

A Milwaukee -5 23 27 46.000000% YES 11.0784
H New Jersey 5 4 47 7.843137% NO -11.0784
MIL PLAYED LAST NIGHT

A Sacramento 4.5 17 34 33.333333% NO 0.1667
H Detroit -4.5 18 32 36.000000% YES -0.1667

A Orlando -4.5 35 17 67.307692% YES 1.1538
H Chicago 4.5 25 25 50.000000% NO -1.1538

A Boston -5 32 17 65.306122% YES -1.3085
H New Orleans 5 27 25 51.923077% NO 1.3085
New Orleans qualifies, but C. Paul Injured....

A Charlotte -2 25 26 49.019608% YES 7.0098
H Minnesota 2 13 39 25.000000% NO -7.0098

A LA Lakers 5 40 13 75.471698% YES 7.7358
H Utah -5 32 18 64.000000% NO -7.7358

A Portland 9 30 24 55.555556% NO 3.9701
H Phoenix -9 31 21 59.615385% YES -3.9701
Portland Played Last Night

A LA Clippers -1.5 21 31 40.384615% YES 2.6923
H Golden State 1.5 13 37 26.000000% NO -2.6923

So what does everyone think on the C. Paul injury. He has not played since 1/29, expected to miss 4-6 weeks, and in my opinion is a BIG part of that team leading the team in points, assists, and steals. In my opinion this disqualifies them as a system play, but once again let the debate begin....

PatrickBateman · 02-10-10, 02:13 PM

CP3 out = An obvious no play, he is so important to that team 3-4 ATS without him so far. 0-4 ATS at home without him

aoz1122 · 02-10-10, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by patrickbateman

cp3 out = an obvious no play, he is so important to that team 3-4 ats without him so far. 0-4 ats at home without him

agreed

HoulihansTX · 02-10-10, 03:12 PM

This has been discussed, and said many times.... Once a starter is out for at least one week, no longer is that person considered a starter. The actual replacements are starters.

I like New Orleans. Today anyway. I think the Minny/OKC game should swap spreads with the Celtics/Hornets games.

Lnn7 · 02-10-10, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

This has been discussed, and said many times.... Once a starter is out for at least one week, no longer is that person considered a starter. The actual replacements are starters. I like New Orleans. Today anyway. I think the Minny/OKC game should swap spreads with the Celtics/Hornets games.

Dude that's dumb man, its like saying if lebron is out for 2 weeks you should consider him replaced. Well the problem is even if lebron is out for 2 weeks, the cav's record that you're gonna put in the formula is around .700 but everyone know the cav is nowhere near a .700 w/o lebron no matter who on the Cav roster replace him, or for that matter who in the NBA replace him except kobe. that's just stupid.

Lnn7 · 02-10-10, 06:42 PM

Filters are made by whoever invented this formula b/c there's no way for them to incorporate injury into the formula so you have to use better judgement of who's actually injury on the team. How crucial is the injured player to the success/winning % of the team. How close are they to what their record should be with the replacement player. Basically if u can put injury into the formula, it would say OK, if the cav is a .700 team with lebron, what should they be w/o lebron and ideally u would put that winning % w/o lebron into the formula instead.

losturmarbles · 02-10-10, 07:19 PM

the system is the system. this system has injury filters set up for 1 week/3 games, whichever comes last. after that the injury is no longer a filter. you can pick and choose to follow the system when you want but that is not the system in this thread, that is your own modified system based on your own discretion of how important the player that got injured is.

barts185 · 02-10-10, 07:28 PM

Alright, looks like we finally found our expert who knows about the system and what the person who isn't around anymore to answer questions actually meant by

"Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters."

Because to me, that's still open to interpretation, but good to know you have the DEFINITVE answer and verified this with the long departed inventor of the system.

So, we can finally put this to rest. Boy, that will save a lot of messages.

Thank you.

HoulihansTX · 02-10-10, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Lnn7

Dude that's dumb man, its like saying if lebron is out for 2 weeks you should consider him replaced. Well the problem is even if lebron is out for 2 weeks, the cav's record that you're gonna put in the formula is around .700 but everyone know the cav is nowhere near a .700 w/o lebron no matter who on the Cav roster replace him, or for that matter who in the NBA replace him except kobe. that's just stupid.

The line will reflect LeBron being out of the lineup.

My comments are pertaining to the system, not how one views a players importance to a team.

Everyone needs to remember... any factor that is logical/practical, the odds makers build into the lines. We are not smarter than the odds makers, and there is rarely an angle that we know of that oddsmakers have not thought of B4 releasing the lines.

Back to the point. The system allows for a team to play without a starter for 1 week, and from that point on the team is no longer filtered out. I dont know exactly why the system works that way, but it is what it is. My best guess is that the system is giving odds makers time to adjust the lines for the absence of that starter.

HoulihansTX · 02-10-10, 08:04 PM

This is for all you guys that are under the impression that this system is new, or unknown to most experience gamblers.

I have used this system for 2+ years, and obtained from this site 3+ years ago.

It has all the parameters, filters, and any other aspects mapped out for everyone.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/basketball/a/nbabetsystem.htm

barts185 · 02-10-10, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

This is for all you guys that are under the impression that this system is new, or unknown to most experience gamblers.

I have used this system for 2+ years, and obtained from this site 3+ years ago.

It has all the parameters, filters, and any other aspects mapped out for everyone.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/b...abetsystem.htm

If this is the system, how does:

"There are several qualifiers, such as the team cannot be in the second of back-to-back games, cannot have an injured starter, and no games with a point spread of 10 or more points is considered."

equate to it being okay if the starter is out for a week?

Thanks for showing the negative to positive. Someone mentioned it once, but when I asked a question, got no response. I know I haven't been including those plays - has anyone? Does anyone have a list of the games this season?

I also don't see anything about the result being -1 or lower meaning play the opposite side.

HoulihansTX · 02-10-10, 08:43 PM

"I also don't see anything about the result being -1 or lower meaning play the opposite side."

Read Part Two

"equate to it being okay if the starter is out for a week?"

A modification that was made due to the fact spreads are adjusted for injured starters.

An example of lines being adjusted is the Lakers game tonight were they are 5.5 Dogs @Utah. They would be favored by at least 2pts with Kobe/Bynum.

As lines adjust I bet accordingly.

thechaoz · 02-10-10, 09:12 PM

So what is the record of the whole season for this particular system?

jcygts6 · 02-10-10, 09:32 PM

according to the spreadsheet bucks and trailblazers were plays today? Is this correct?

Both are playing back to back games tho.

jcygts6 · 02-10-10, 09:38 PM

so is the excel spreadheet the same system as the system in this article?

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/basketball/a/nbabetsystem.htm

aoz1122 · 02-11-10, 11:30 AM

NO PLAYS TODAY:

A Orlando 6.5 36 17 67.924528% NO -2.1604
H Cleveland -6.5 42 11 79.245283% YES 2.1604

A San Antonio 5.5 29 21 58.000000% NO -2.1538
H Denver -5.5 35 17 67.307692% YES 2.1538

HoulihansTX · 02-11-10, 12:17 PM

Thurs days never bring plays for some reason. Probably b/c its always a matchup of winning teams.

barts185 · 02-11-10, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by jcygts6

according to the spreadsheet bucks and trailblazers were plays today? Is this correct?

Both are playing back to back games tho.

It seems like you read as far as rule 4 in the spreadsheet (at least if you're talking about my spreadsheet), and then skipped rule 5.

I'm working on a new version of the spreadsheet that will take the line and the back to back into account. For now, you have to do that manually.

Welt446+ · 02-11-10, 05:48 PM

None of the teams will qualify for three of their games after the All-star game. That means the system won't be a consideration until the 21st through the 26th depending on the team.

jcygts6 · 02-11-10, 11:36 PM

im confused isn't this the spreadsheet that everyone is using?

I have attached the one I am using now below.

I have no ideal how to use the Beta V.3 system. Where do I input the data?

Attached Files

NBA_70_percent_system.xlsx (15.4 KB, 226 views)

jcygts6 · 02-11-10, 11:37 PM

thanks and good luck to ya'll the plays have been like 5-0 the past few days even when playing teams on back to back

jcygts6 · 02-12-10, 02:02 AM

anyone know?

barts185 · 02-12-10, 03:52 AM

Originally posted by jcygts6

im confused isn't this the spreadsheet that everyone is using?

I have attached the one I am using now below.

I have no ideal how to use the Beta V.3 system. Where do I input the data?

I'm not even sure what the Beta V.3 system is, never mind how to use it.

The spreadsheet you attached is the one I had posted.

As I said, while it will do the math, it isn't checking for back to back, or for the line, so you still need to do that manually, as it says in step 5 at the top of the spreadsheet. The other thing is that you need to make sure the actual line is correct, since the site from which it gets the lines can sometimes make mistakes, especially with early lines.

Take Care,
Bart

HoulihansTX · 02-12-10, 11:52 AM

Any plays for the All-Star game???

aoz1122 · 02-12-10, 03:38 PM

Haha, how bout a 70% play on the Rookies vs. Sophomores?? Oh wait, the line is Sophs -12.5.....

OK, I know that wasn't funny, but I wanted to get my points for posting something today... In reality I should probably loose points for that one.

PacmanJr_00 · 02-12-10, 03:55 PM

I liked it aoz.

PacmanJr_00 · 02-12-10, 03:57 PM

One thing I was considering was adjusting the teams winning percentage after injuries. For example, I don't think it accurate to portray Charlotte as a .500 team with Chris Paul out for the rest of the season. So, why not wait x amount of game, maybe 20 again, and then recalculate their winning percentage going forward from when Paul went down.

jcygts6 · 02-13-10, 12:59 AM

okay great thanks for clearing this up barts185

sprn · 02-15-10, 05:10 PM

Is it performing as expected?

barts185 · 02-15-10, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by sprn

Is it performing as expected?

Yes.

Tsiggy Fresh · 02-15-10, 05:38 PM

ugh another season with another formula

PatrickBateman · 02-15-10, 06:04 PM

Don't knock it unless you try it

HoulihansTX · 02-16-10, 03:31 AM

Originally posted by Tsiggy Fresh

ugh another season with another formula

=This formula has been around for years. You have exposed yourself as a fool. Refrain from posting in this thread.