70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

[barts185]

Tuesday, 03/02, initial post, 2 games, other 2 don't have lines.


OKC/SAC game line is OKC -10.5, value comes out to 5.7 so no play.


LAL/IND, LAL qualifies mathwise (at a line of -12.5, math works out to 11.05), but they are a dd favorite, so are not eligible.


I'll be back at somepoint during the day once the lines get posted on MIA/GSW and DET/BOS, but there are a lot of question marks on who's playing in those games.



So, as of now, no play on OKC/SAC or LAL/IND, and I'll update at some point with the other games.


Take Care,
Bart

[barts185]

Tuesday, 03/02, final update.

No plays for today. To finish off the other 2 games:


DET +5 makes the final value BOS 5.8

MIA -11 makes the final value MIA 1.5

Take Care,
Bart

[barts185]

Wednesday, 03/03

CLE qualifies NOW at -9.5, but the opening line was -10.5. So for those who play only against opening lines, no play, end of story. The line has since moved to -9.5, under which they would qualify. As I said in my post about them a couple of days ago, between the removal of Shaq (even though I feel that's a good thing) and the addition of Jamison, it feels like it would be prudent to wait a week. If forced to choose, I would go with CLE, but I'll utilize the most powerful weapon we have in our arsenal as bettors, and pass a game I'm not confident about.

DET may be in the negative to positive situation, but they are not eligible since they are on a back to back. There's also a couple of injury questions, so just as well.

DAL qualifies mathwise, but are a double digit favorite, so no play. Haywood seems to be doing a decent job filling in for Dampier. Purists should note that Dampier is out for around another week or so, will have to note when he comes back. There is also the Butler as a starter question - joined the team on 02/16, played 5 games, missed 2 games, and now has played 2 games. Personally, if Dallas qualifies, I'm using them. Not today, because of the line.

OKC qualifies mathwise (fade of DEN, number comes out to -1.0 at the opening line of -6 and -2.5 at the current line of -7.5), but are on back to back, so are not eligible. FWIW, Krstic is expected to play.



Summary:

No plays for today.

Good Luck,
Bart

[nolaswede]

Thanks Bart

[Hawk007]

Thanks for continuing to keep us up to date Bart.

[PacmanJr_00]

appreciate it very much bart.

[barts185]

03/04/10

Memphis qualifies mathwise (fade of Chicago), but they are on a back to back, so are not eligible.

Just a note, Chicago's roster is starting to have a LOT of questions.

Rose - missed practice, but is expected to play.
Deng - didn't practice since Missing Monday's game, but is listed as probable.
Noah - now out for 3 weeks. Didn't play from 02/05 to 02/19, then played in 4 games from 02/20 to 02/26, now has been out for 2 games and is going to be out for 3 weeks.
Miller - missed practice, but is expected to play.

Throw in that Salmons, who wasn't a starter, but logged as many minutes as a lot of starters, was traded on 02/17, and roster questions for Chicago are going to get interesting.


Phoenix qualifies mathwise at the opening line of PHO -1, but are on a back to back, so are not eligible. The line has mostly moved to PHO -1.5, which would drop the calculation to -0.8, so wouldn't qualify at that number. As well as being on a back to back, this is the fourth timezone in five days for Phoenix, and this one is moving east, which has to mess with their bodyclocks a little. Not that they had to expend a lot of energy after the 3rd quarter last night, but still a rough scheduling spot.


So, no plays.


Good Luck,
Bart

[snapstick]

You need AT LEAST 100 games/plays to get a good read on any system. It will take 10 years for this system to show if its successfull or not. BOL

[Rio DiNero]

You need AT LEAST 100 games/plays to get a good read on any system. It will take 10 years for this system to show if its successfull or not. BOL

This system has been around for a long time my friend, I know it as "The Christmas System."

[snapstick]

I understand my friend...but is their a record tracked that include at least 100 plays?

[Welt446+]

Does anyone know where I can find out who the starters were and who was injured in past years? I'd like to test this system and similar ones.

[barts185]

Does anyone know where I can find out who the starters were and who was injured in past years? I'd like to test this system and similar ones.

I don't know of any easy place. I'd love to find someplace that just lists who the starters were for each game. You can look at box scores of games to see who started.

Right now, I'm using rotowire, looking at the depthchart, and then looking at the game log for each player. It takes a lot of time. I'd love to actually see something that just basically had a deptchart with a list below each player of games started and minutes played.

[barts185]

I understand my friend...but is their a record tracked that include at least 100 plays?

Not that I know of, but we'll have one in about 5 years (don't think it will take 10 ).

And, FWIW, I think it's worthwhile to go through the method and see if there's any possible value on games even when it's not an "official" play.

Good Luck,
Bart

[elynch]

nice system man BOL

[pats3peat]

chicago is an up and coming team why would they be a fade thought?

[barts185]

chicago is an up and coming team why would they be a fade thought?

Just curious if you've read ANYTHING regarding this system before asking this question?

[barts185]

FWIW, here's what I see as a recap of the plays / possible plays (only part 1, still working on part 2)

These are my notes, not meant to be official, if anyone has any additions / subtractions, would be interested in seeing them.


12/07 DEN win 1-0
12/10 BOS loss 1-1
12/11 HOU win 2-1
12/12 SAC win 3-1
12/16 UTA win 4-1
12/18 IND loss 4-2
12/18 SAC loss 4-3
12/22 ATL win 5-3
12/26 HOU loss 5-4
12/28 OKC win 6-4
01/01 ORL win 7-4
01/04 NOR win 8-4
on 01/10 record quoted as 9-4, not sure which play I missed
01/12 LAC win 10-4 (Kaman was a late scratch, but this play is left in due to having played at opening line)
01/20 BOS ? Garnett inj, stay away consensus, but it is a play. loss
01/22 MIL win
01/22 DAL? loss
01/22 HOU? win
01/29 LAL win ?14-4
02/03, POR, but inj questions, loss
02/05 HOU possibly, but both teams had the exact same wins/losses, so not sure how either team would qualify as the team with the higher percentage. win
02/05 DEN, but Anthony was out. He'd been out for 6 games, and some people were saying if a starter is out for a week or more, you still use the team. win
02/08 DAL, but inj question, win
02/09 POR, but inj question, loss
02/20 MEM, win
02/23 POR, but inj question, win
02/25 DEN only if you use -5.5, which was around, but wasn't the openeing line, win
02/26 OKC, but opening line was -10, dropped to -9.5, which qualified, but not if you only used opening lines, win
02/28 TOR, inj question (Bosh), has already missed 4 games, loss
03/01 POR/MEM POR under part 2 at the opening line, MEM after the line move, ???
03/03 CLE, but not at opening line, and questions regarding the new lineup, win

[Welt446+]

I don't know of any easy place. I'd love to find someplace that just lists who the starters were for each game. You can look at box scores of games to see who started.

Right now, I'm using rotowire, looking at the depthchart, and then looking at the game log for each player. It takes a lot of time. I'd love to actually see something that just basically had a deptchart with a list below each player of games started and minutes played.

I like to use CBS's page for the Depth chart, it shows what the most common lineups are who has been starting for the last few games.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/depth-chart/NO/new-orleans-hornets

You can select different teams in the top right corner drop down box.

[PacmanJr_00]

I use cbs as well though their scoreboard is horrible and always behind. They have good pregame info.

[Nick6570]

Great system so far, im really getting into this model

[barts185]

I like to use CBS's page for the Depth chart, it shows what the most common lineups are who has been starting for the last few games.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/depth-chart/NO/new-orleans-hornets

You can select different teams in the top right corner drop down box.

Thank you. This should help a lot.

[Welt446+]

Thank you. This should help a lot.

You're very welcome.

[JohnAnthony]

Any plays tonight..??

[barts185]

I'm going to be late today. If anyone else did it and wants to post, please do so.

[HoulihansTX]

I'm going to be late today. If anyone else did it and wants to post, please do so.

--- Mavs are a play mathwise, but Terry is on his first day INJ. He is not a starter, but plays starter minutes. Your decision fellas, but will not count win/lose

--- The rest are either Double digits, or B2B's, which I didnt bother doing the math for.

GL to All

[billdo75]

Just wanted to chime in and say that another good source for starting lineups is www.basketball-reference.com. After choosing a team, it will default to Roster and Statistics, but you can change the drop-down box to Starting Lineups which will give you the starting lineups for each game and the number/record of games a certain lineup was started.

[cruyff]

--- Mavs are a play mathwise, but Terry is on his first day INJ. He is not a starter, but plays starter minutes. Your decision fellas, but will not count win/lose

I don't frequent this thread very often.. but isn't that the stipulation? Being a starter? In that case it doesn't really matter how many minutes he plays, only the starting five scratch out a pick, so this should count. Just my 2c

[jakeandba]

Just wanted to chime in and say that another good source for starting lineups is www.basketball-reference.com. After choosing a team, it will default to Roster and Statistics, but you can change the drop-down box to Starting Lineups which will give you the starting lineups for each game and the number/record of games a certain lineup was started.

Thanks for the link, it is helpful

[barts185]

Just wanted to chime in and say that another good source for starting lineups is www.basketball-reference.com. After choosing a team, it will default to Roster and Statistics, but you can change the drop-down box to Starting Lineups which will give you the starting lineups for each game and the number/record of games a certain lineup was started.

Thanks. That's really good, seeing the whole season at a glance.

I just wish the game logs showed the games where people didn't play. The only one I looked at so far was Jason Kidd, to see what they showed for the 03/03 game. If you didn't know that Dallas played on that day, it would look like he hasn't missed a game ( I do realize he's missed 2 games this season).

[cala56]

Nice System.

[barts185]

03/06/10
Only 1 game even comes close at the opening line, and may qualify under part 2.

MEM may qualify under part 2 of the system. Under part 1, at the opening line of +1.5 no play. If it moves to +2, qualifies as a fade of SAS, but not for people who only want to use the opening line. I will again point out that I'm not sure about part 2, but SAS is the selected team, and even at SAS -1.5, the calculation value moved from SAS 0.85 before adding in the line to SAS -0.65, moving from positive to negative. Does that mean that the calculation for MEM moved from negative to positive?

I think that the UTA line will move up (opened, and currently at, -13.5) if Eric Gordon doesn't play for the Clippers.
If it gets to -16, LAC qualifies mathwise as a fade of UTA, but they are on B2B so aren't eligible, and would have injury issues.

Nothing else even close.

Good Luck,
Bart

[Z_Wipf]

So whats the record of this so far? I know there are games that you can take if you choose but what about directly from the system picks?

[barts185]

I don't frequent this thread very often.. but isn't that the stipulation? Being a starter? In that case it doesn't really matter how many minutes he plays, only the starting five scratch out a pick, so this should count. Just my 2c

I agree with the fact that he wasn't a starter, but had other issues with Dallas.

I knew that their starting lineup had been somewhat fluid, and now thanks to different things at a couple of sites, can see that the

C. Butler ▪ B. Haywood ▪ J. Kidd ▪ S. Marion ▪ D. Nowitzki

starting lineup

A) has still only played together a small amount of time. Not sure if this includes last night yet or not, but I'm only seeing 89.5 minutes played together.

B) Started 4 games when Butler came onto the team. Those 4 games were in the span of 6 days, so wasn't a week. Then he missed 2 games due to illness from medication on 02/24 and 02/26. Then they started for 2 games on 02/28 and 03/01. Then Kidd missed a game, just to rest, on 03/03. They they started again last night.


This is where the whole thing about injuries, or who the staters are, comes into play, and everyone needs to decide for themsleves at some point.

[barts185]

So whats the record of this so far? I know there are games that you can take if you choose but what about directly from the system picks?

See post 647, or go through the thread, and then decide for yourself. Huge question about how injuries and starters come into play, so hard to say what the "official" record is, but anyway I look at it, should be pretty good.

[barts185]

03/07/10

The only game that's even remotely close on part 1 is Denver.

DEN line has moved from the opener of -6 to -7. It would have to get to -8.5 and then would be a fade, as POR would qualify.

L. Aldridge ▪ N. Batum ▪ M. Camby ▪ A. Miller ▪ B. Roy

Have started the last 4 games.
Camby is now a question mark, didn't practice Saturday.


Lakers appear to be in the negative to positive situation, going from -0.65 to positve as any sort of a dog (line opened DEN -3, down to DEN -2). I guess in the remote possibility department, if the line moved to the Lakers being a favorite, DEN would qualify.


Still not sure about the negative to positve, but mentioning it, when it comes up.


Good Luck,
Bart