70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

[barts185]

03/27

CHI - Line opened 10, and even though they qualified mathwise, no double-digit favorites, so they are eliminated. The line has moved to -9.


Deng has been out starting on 03/11

Noah (not currently starting) will be back for a week today. This will be his 4th game.

Johnson had an MRI on Friday, and I can't find the results, but don't see him on any injury lists, so presume he is okay at this point.

T. Gibson ▪ K. Hinrich ▪ J. Johnson ▪ B. Miller ▪ D. Rose

have started 5 games, including the last 3. In the last 3

03/20 Won @ PHI 98-94 as 4.5 point dogs.
03/22 Won 98-88 at home vs. HOU as 2.5 point favorites.
03/25 Lost 74-103 at home vs. MIA as 1.5 point favorites.




DAL

Nowitzki is probable.

If they keep the starting lineup the same, this will only be the third game for a starting lineup of

C. Butler ▪ E. Dampier ▪ J. Kidd ▪ S. Marion ▪ D. Nowitzki

I'm not sure what is going on with Haywood / Dampier. While Dampier has gotten the last 2 starts, Haywood has still gotten the majority of the playing time.

Since this system is based off starters, I feel that technically this should be a pass, but wouldn't blame anyone for playing Dallas.


If the starting lineup goes back to

C. Butler ▪ B. Haywood ▪ J. Kidd ▪ S. Marion ▪ D. Nowitzki


then the question is does the last 2 games mean anything?




Part 1

CHI if you are willing to use other than the opening line, and think the injury status is okay. Personally, I'm passing. Nets are now only 1 win away from not tying the worst ever record in NBA history, and will be trying hard to get that 10th win.


DAL if you are willing to look past the official starting lineup at who's playing.


Good Luck,
Bart

[Welt446+]

CBS doesn't say a word about Nowitzski's ankle - just his ejection the other night. I wonder why.

If he plays (which it looks like he will), I personally would count this as a play since the system mentions starters who are out rather than starters who are not starting or playing. It's really just semantics in the end though :P The reason why I would consider it a play though would be because, if someone else is starting in their place or if the former starter is no longer playing, the other player is probably playing better basketball.

[Welt446+]

I forgot to mention. Thanks a lot for the heads up on Nowitzski

[barts185]

I forgot to mention. Thanks a lot for the heads up on Nowitzski

Glad to help.

I check 3 sites for injuries, and still feel like I miss some.

I really wish there was a universal requirement for stardardized injury reporting.

While I'm wishing, it would be great if there was somewhere that would list things like who participated in the morning shootaround. At times I can find mentions in articles, but more often it's a guessing game.

It wouldn't be hard for there to be a requirement that teams just update who participated in the shootaround.

I don't actually expect it to happen, but it would be nice.

[barts185]

03/27/10

No lines yet for MEM/MIL or TOR/MIA - Will be back in the morning once I see lines for those games.


CLE qualifies mathwise, but dd line, so eliminated.

ORL goes from positive to negative at -5.5 or higher (opened -5.5). FOr DEN, Martin has been out long enough that you need to decide whether or not to use DEN without him.

OKC goes from positive to negative at the opening line of -4.5 but POR is back-to-back, so isn't eligible.

PHO opened at -9.5 and at that number, miss mathwise, number comes out to 9.85. The line has moved to -9, and the number goes to 10.35. However, Lopez is going to miss at least the next 5 games, so PHO is not eligible.


Summary:

Part 1
No plays.

Part 2
DEN

[barts185]

On the two games which recently had lines put up (MEM/MIL and TOR/MIA)

MIL line is out at -3.5. Nothing at that number. If it moves to -4.5, they would go from positive to negative, but there are a couple of injury questions for MEM, so make sure to check that if the line moves. Also, Gasol may be coming back today. He's been out for 5 games, over a week, does that mean we need to now wait a week before we can use MEM?

MIA line is out at -6.5. At that number or higher they are a fade. For TOR, Turkolu is questionable.



Part 1

If Turkolu plays, TOR is a play.

[barts185]

Turkolu is NOT starting for TOR, no play.

Good Luck,
Bart

[Z_Wipf]

Great thread, keep it up

[barts185]

03/29/10

CHA goes from positive to negative, but TOR is on back-to-back so isn't eligible.

SAS qualifies mathwise, and Parker has been out long enough, but they are on back-to-back, so aren't eligible.

DAL and DEN were tied in wins/losses before DEN lost last night. That now makes DAL the qualified team and the math now works out to a fade of DAL. But DEN are on back-to-back, so aren't eligible.


Summary

The back-to-back rule eliminates 3 possible plays.


No plays.


Good Luck,
Bart

[Hawk007]

Bart,
if Charlotte is the play it doesn't matter if the other team is on b2b only the team the play is on???

[barts185]

Bart,
if Charlotte is the play it doesn't matter if the other team is on b2b only the team the play is on???

Charlotte isn't the play. Charlotte goes from positive to negative, so Toronto would be the play.

And actually, Charlotte not only goes from positive to negative, their number comes out to -2.9 at the opening line of -8, so would be a fade. But again, Toronto is on back to back, so aren't eligible.


And that's without getting into the Turkolu issue. From what I read, it just looks like he doesn't want to play and is using the bug as an excuse to "call in sick". There were reports of him out partying after Friday night's game, which he didn't play in because he was sick.




Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

03/30

No line up yet on SAC/IND or WAS/HOU.


On the 3 games where there are lines (OKC/PHI, LAC/MIL and PHO/CHI), nothing within a 2 point line move of being a play.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

03/31 Final

They just put up IND -5.5 and HOU -8

At -5.5 or higher, IND goes from positive to negative.


For SAC, Tyreke Evans has been out 5 games (since 03/21). He is coming back today, so SAC isn't eligible for a week.

Good Luck,
Bart

[PatrickBateman]

Is there a limitation to how long we make these plays? For example, eventually the teams that have clinched will not be playing their starters the whole games. Seems like at this point the record does not give us a full evaluation of the team on the floor.

[DaAce]

Is there a limitation to how long we make these plays? For example, eventually the teams that have clinched will not be playing their starters the whole games. Seems like at this point the record does not give us a full evaluation of the team on the floor.

2 weeks left in the season... starters will begin to rest closer to the last week... the bottom 10 teams have begun emptying their bench earlier in games... play it smart until playoffs

[barts185]

I agree about being cautious at this point. Personally, I'll be looking for situations where the team has something to play for in the game.



03/31/10


TOR opened -9. Nothing at that number. The line has moved to -10, and they move from positive to negative. Baron Davis is out for LAC, so they aren't eligible. I'm really not a fan of Davis, but it does seem like the Clippers function better when he's on the court. Anyway, no play.

PHO qualifies mathwise, but are on back-to-back, so aren't eligible.

HOU qualifies mathwise as a fade of SAS, but are on back-to-back, so aren't eligible. This avoids having to deal with injury issues - Martin is out again, this will be his 4th missed game.



Good Luck,
Bart

[HoulihansTX]

Baron Davis is a Bum. This should be good news for those backing the Clipp Joint.

[barts185]

04/01/10

No line yet on ORL/DAL.

DEN opened -4.5 and at that number or higher they go from positive to negative. However, POR is on back-to-back, so aren't eligible.



Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

04/01

DAL qualifies mathwise as a fade of ORL, but they are on back-to-back, so are not eligible.

So no plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

04/02/10

I've had internet access issues since last night.

*** Due to the internet issue, I haven't had anywhere near the time to go over the games today, so if anyone has anything to add, I'dd appreciate it. I'm making the notes I know about, but may have missed things.


MIL opened +4, has mostly moved to +3.5. At either number, they move from negative to positive.

After missing 3 games, Delfino is now supposedly starting tonight, earlier than expected.


HOU qualifies mathwise as a fade of BOS at the opening number of +11.

T. Ariza ▪ A. Brooks ▪ C. Hayes ▪ L. Scola ▪ J. Taylor

have started the last 3 games. Not that impressive IMO.

Martin, who has missed 4 games, is questionable.

Tough to say, especially if Martin is, or isn't playing.



Personally, I'm passing all games. Good luck if you play anything.

[Flopa3]

[barts185]

04/03

If anyone has been tracking how the eliminated plays have done, I'd appreciate you posting. Maybe it's selective memory, especially with the 2-0 last night, but they seem to have been doing well.

For part 1, the only game which qualified mathwise was NOR, and they are on back-to-back, so are elminated.

FOr part 2, CHA moves from negative to positive, but they are on back-to-back, so are eliminated.


No plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

[mundane]

thanks!

[sneak-a-peak]

It sucks to see the season and this successful thread winding down to its final days. Its been a fun ride here! I started playing right from the beginning. I did thankfully happen to miss 2 losses that came early on without missing any wins. And I know there has been controversy at times as to what is a play and what is not due to personal views on injuries but I was not too picky with injuries unless it was a fresh injury to a starter or was obvious that a team was not as good without a certain player and came out ahead with a 27-10 record (72.9%) so I'm very pleased with the results here.

A special thanks to Barts for your great work!
I will hook you up with points on your next post, also I think anyone else who profited from Barts posts the past couple of months should show some appreciation and hook him up with points as well. Hope to see you here next year too buddy!

Is anyone here going to be following any baseball systems that they know can be successful too? I don't have any experience with and don't know of any so if there are any you can vouch for please share.... Thanks

[barts185]

04/04/10


No line yet on CLE/BOS (from what I read, Jamison will play), HOU/IND, NYK/LAC.


On the other games, the only one which qualifies mathwise is OKC, but they are BOTH a dd favorite and on back-to-back.


I'll be back in the morning to update the other 3 games.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

04/04/10

Lines are out for the last 3 games, and there are no plays.

Since there are no games tomorrow (is this because of the NCAA, or MLB?), be back with Tuesday's games once I see some lines.

Take Care,
Bart

[barts185]

Does this run all the way through the end of the season? Can anyone say how it has done near the end of prior seasons?

There doesn't seem to be a qualifier at for not playing near the end of seasons, but I'm concerned with how much teams might be resting starters, even if they start the game.

[sneak-a-peak]

Ya the NBA never schedules anything for the NCAA championship.

Barts I think you nailed it right on the other day when you talked about only playing on a team if they have something to play for. Thats what I will consider from here on out.

[Flopa3]

I only stepped in and looked at this thread once in a while. I didn't follow but nice work Bart. If you post next season I'll be following.

[Welt446+]

Thunder +5 should be a play

Also, Cavs -6.5 is a play but it all depends on how you feel about O'Neal being out

It's also true what Bart said though - teams don't have much to play for.

[barts185]

As you said, hard to judge. CLE actually opened -7.5, which didn't qualify. At this point, CLE has NOTHING to play for - they have home field advantage locked up though the playoffs. TOR supposedly has something to play for in that they are battling to make the playoffs. But is it really going to be so worthwhile to get destroyed by Cleveland in round 1?

Also, much more than the O'Neal issue, Cleveland management has said they are going to rest LeBron for at least 2 of the remaining 5 games, but haven't said which ones.

[barts185]

04/06


CLE didn't qualify mathwise at the opening line of -7.5. At -6.5 or lower, they do qualify. Large concerns over who's going to play in the game. As noted, Cleveland has said they are going to rest LeBron at least 2 games. Now, there's news that Shaq could be cleared to play during the last game or two of the regular season. If he is cleared, making the giant leap that Cleveland would want him to play with the first string team, which means that they would rest those players this week.


WAS qualifies as a fade of GSW.

A. Blatche ▪ S. Livingston ▪ M. Miller ▪ F. Oberto ▪ N. Young

have started 4 games.

03/30 @HOU 94-98
03/31 @NOR 96-91
04/02 vs. CHI 87-95
04/04 vs. NJN 109-99



MEM opened -3.5, no play at that number. It's moved to -4.5 and they now go from positive to negative. If the line moved to -5 or higher, HOU would qualify as a fade of MEM.

T. Ariza ▪ A. Brooks ▪ C. Hayes ▪ K. Martin ▪ L. Scola

are back to being the starters. They have started 8 games this season. Martin missed 5 games, and now has been back for 1 (and didn't exactly look too impressive in that one).



OKC qualifies mathwise as a fade of UTA. I see no injury concerns.





Summary:


Part 1


Cleveland, not at opening number, and not sure who's playing or for how long.


Washington if you feel that this late in the season it's okay to go with starters who have only started 4 games together.


Oklahoma City is a play.



Part 2

Houston, not at opening line, and only if you feel the starters are ready to play. This could also move to part 1 with the same qualification if the line gets to 5.



Good Luck,
Bart

[HoulihansTX]

Thanks. I would recommend everyone stay far away from Houston. Tank Mode.

[barts185]

So after all the issues listed, it has a 4-0 night.



LeBron plays and Cleveland covers (I wasn't around at the start of the game to see if he was playing or not).

Washington KILLS GSW.

Oklahoma City loses by 1 (but covers) in OT.

Houston line moved to 5 in some places. I think Houston was behind by 5 for about 20 seconds of the game in the first quarter, never behind by more than 5 and was always ahead in the second half.




Oh, well. Feel like I've given up more winners than losers this year, but still definitely WAY ahead on the season.


Be back in the morning.

[barts185]

04/07


A lot of teams on back-to-back and a lot of plays eliminated due to that. Also, many injury issues.



TOR line opened +1.5, nothing at that. Once Bosh was hurt, the game has come back up at 6. At that number, TOR qualifies as a fade of BOS, but are on back-to-back and obviously injury issue with Bosh being out.


NYK qualify mathwise as a fade of IND, but they are on back-to-back so are not eligible. Also, injury issues and a pretty big letdown spot after beating BOS (they haven't covered after beating Boston since they did it once in 2003, 1-3 in the 2003 season, 0-4 SU and ATS since then.)


MIL qualify mathwise, but are on back-to-back, so aren't eligible. Also, Bogut is out for at least the remainder of the regular season, likely the playoffs as well.


DEN opened +3, dropped to +1.5 and now is mostly +2.5. For DEN, it looks like Billups will play. Martin is still out but they are talking about him returning before the end of the regular season.
At +2 or higher, DEN goes from negative to positive.


CHA line is -1. Nothing at that line. If the line goes to -1.5 or higher, they go from positive to negative. For NOR, Paul hurt his right hand in practice yesterday, and it's been bothering him since he returned, but is expected to play.


HOU opened +5.5. At that line, they qualify mathwise as a fade of UTA, but are on back-to-back, so aren't eligible. At -5.0, UTA still goes from positive to negative, but no longer high enough to be a fade. Line has dropped all the way to HOU +4/ UTA -4, and there is nothing at that line.


SAS qualifies mathwise as a fade of PHO, but are on back-to-back, so are not eligible. Also, Hill didn't play yesterday and will miss at least this game as well. Not sure when Parker will go back to being a starter, but expect it to be sometime soon. So, SAS starting lineup will have some changes.




Summary:

Part 1 - No plays.


Part 2

DEN

NOR if line goes to +1.5 or higher, not opening line.


Good Luck,
Bart