70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

**PatrickBateman** · 01-22-10, 03:19 PM

For those people looking for a ton of plays, this system is not for you...or you should just bet higher amounts on the few plays there are. I am not a math wiz by any means, but it seems to me that hitting 70% when betting big bets is better than scratching out any sort of profit by playing 100-300 small plays a year.

For those people saying that no system can hit 70% or that this system will have down years...You are about 50% right. Sure no system blindly bet can earn a profit forever. My view of systems is that they should be a MEANS to an END, not the END itself. Use the plays that this system produces as a starting point and then handicap them. If it is a system play and you like the play, then that should strengthen your confidence in the play.

Systems should be handicapping TOOLS, not just an easy way to get plays. For example, this system gives us pretty solid plays that should already be on your radar (the filters give us good angles). However, it might not account for current team streaks. If you have a play on a favorite, but they are on a 3 game losing streak or the dog is on a 3 game winning streak, maybe take a pass on that game. Or if maybe there is a matchup that you think does not favor the system play, then don't play it, it is that simple. Or has a team been shooting really poorly and the record does not reflect that? This is just a few examples off the top of my head.

**Biff Webster** · 01-22-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

I will buy your info on Dallas. I had not followed them that closely. I appreciate that info, thank you.

As for houston, your math is correct, and actually so is mine. I am glad you found this. I have created a spreadsheet which computes these automatically. In your math, you have rounded the winning %'s to three digits where my spreadsheet uses many more decimal places. (You: Houston 56.1%, SAS 61.0% , Me: Houston 56.09756098%, SAS 60.97560976%). So in the end, where your math comes to a -1, mine is actually at -.561.

I am not saying either of us is right or wrong really, just that this raises an interesting question. Do we round off the winning % or not?? My spreadsheet is more accurate in the nitty gritty of the math, but really is that the best for this system or not??

I think you have to be very specific since it is based on math.

**PatrickBateman** · 01-23-10, 12:14 AM

So did we decide on any plays for tonight?

**aoz1122** · 01-23-10, 01:19 AM

MIL for sure was a play, I agree Dallas as a play (even though they lost) and I am not counting personally Houston as a play (even though it won)

Bateman, go return some video tapes....

**PacmanJr_00** · 01-23-10, 08:59 AM

i only used mil as a play.

**PacmanJr_00** · 01-23-10, 08:59 AM

i am playing the system as strict a possible.

**jakeandba** · 01-23-10, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by PacmanJr_00

i am playing the system as strict a possible.

So does that mean there is just one play for those of us playing the strict system.. Mil?

Thanks

**tjlampe** · 01-23-10, 09:58 AM

leaning towards thenuggets tonight

**thenry2289** · 01-23-10, 11:08 AM

Hey guys do we have any plays for tonite??

**owll52** · 01-23-10, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by tjlampe

leaning towards thenuggets tonight

Nuggets spread is up to -12

**aoz1122** · 01-23-10, 06:32 PM

No plays tonight

**Welt446+** · 01-23-10, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

I will buy your info on Dallas. I had not followed them that closely. I appreciate that info, thank you.

As for houston, your math is correct, and actually so is mine. I am glad you found this. I have created a spreadsheet which computes these automatically. In your math, you have rounded the winning %'s to three digits where my spreadsheet uses many more decimal places. (You: Houston 56.1%, SAS 61.0% , Me: Houston 56.09756098%, SAS 60.97560976%). So in the end, where your math comes to a -1, mine is actually at -.561.

I am not saying either of us is right or wrong really, just that this raises an interesting question. Do we round off the winning % or not?? My spreadsheet is more accurate in the nitty gritty of the math, but really is that the best for this system or not??

It looks like by majority rule, Rockets are not play.

**JohnAnthony** · 01-23-10, 07:04 PM

I am not saying either of us is right or wrong really, just that this raises an interesting question. Do we round off the winning % or not?? My spreadsheet is more accurate in the nitty gritty of the math, but really is that the best for this system or not??

Would love to see this develop into a fruitful discussion.

**sneak-a-peak** · 01-23-10, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by Welt446+

It looks like by majority rule, Rockets are not play.

I played the Rockets, when I saw they were mentioned here as as play I looked at the line for the game and I loved the play... I must admit that after I saw the final score I loved it even more!!!

It was a easy win and thats what we are looking for in this system right???

**Welt446+** · 01-24-10, 11:28 AM

Nothing tonight - nothing even close mathematically

**Welt446+** · 01-24-10, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by JohnAnthony

Would love to see this develop into a fruitful discussion.

I'm definitely not the one to have it. I'm pretty new to this gambling stuff. However, I personally play picks that are equal to or below 2 and equal to or above 7 so long as all of the other filters apply. In my experience, it is about 60% accurate which is pretty good in my opinion

**Busterflywheel** · 01-24-10, 11:36 AM

BOL tonight

**Hawk007** · 01-25-10, 02:05 AM

I hope someone takes the lead and continues to post all plays that pass the strictest of filters.

**aoz1122** · 01-25-10, 10:49 AM

I see Indiana +4.5 as a play today.

Phoenix +6.5 would be as well, if not for Barbosa being out.

**whatsgood5** · 01-25-10, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by aoz1122

I see Indiana +4.5 as a play today.

Phoenix +6.5 would be as well, if not for Barbosa being out.

I like Indiana as well

**aoz1122** · 01-25-10, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by JohnAnthony

Would love to see this develop into a fruitful discussion.

Honestly, even though I am the one who raised the question, I personally feel rounding is probably fine. I have been computing these all season and this is the first time I have found where rounding created a difference in outcome of the play. Using all of the decimal places is just how excel works, you have to specifically tell it to round numbers off if that is what you want to do. I will continue to use my sheet as it is, but for those of you who want to play a game when there is a rounding issue, I would personally not argue with you.

**sneak-a-peak** · 01-25-10, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by aoz1122

I see Indiana +4.5 as a play today.

Phoenix +6.5 would be as well, if not for Barbosa being out.

FYI- Barbosa is not a starter so I think it should be considered a play.

**bigboyfosho** · 01-25-10, 04:55 PM

indy +5.5, still a play?

**aoz1122** · 01-25-10, 04:56 PM

ESPN has him listed as a starter.

**og4667** · 01-25-10, 05:09 PM

for the Suns game I got a final # of 3.82 making it a no play.

**barts185** · 01-25-10, 05:20 PM

Using these instructions, found earlier in the thread

better % team is selected team
take the difference
divide by 20
add 3 if playing at home/subtract 3 if playing away
then add spread of the selected team

PHO 578
UTA 581

So UTA, the home team, is the selected team.

581-578=3
3/20 = 0.15
Add 3 if playing at home, 0.15 + 3 = 3.15

Opening line was UTA -6.5

3.15 + (-6.5) = -3.35

Play the opposing team if -1 or higher, so play on PHO, but there's the injury question.

**aoz1122** · 01-25-10, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by og4667

for the Suns game I got a final # of 3.82 making it a no play.

I would re-check your math then. Utah is the "selected" team with a final number of -3.819, so b/c it is negative, Phoenix becomes the play barring no filters negate it is a play. You may be getting your negatives and positives mixed up, or adding when you should subtract..??

**aoz1122** · 01-25-10, 05:26 PM

It has been brought to my attention Barbosa has only started a few games. In looking at it, Richardson has started a lot more games. Barbosa really has only started for about a week now, and is now out 4 weeks ago for a wrist surgery. Personally I am not counting this one as a play, but for sure see the argument for counting it. This system can be both subjective and objective at the same time it seems. Good luck to everyone whether you play it or not.

**og4667** · 01-25-10, 05:39 PM

ok got ya, thanks for the instructions and the setup. Suns should be a play, but the Barbosa injury raises questions. Barbosa was inserted into the starting lineup a week ago to help get his offense going but as far as I can remember he has been played as their 6th man. Richardson has started all season but was coming off the bench as of last week. So...Aoz is right, I think as far as the strict system plays go it might not be a play but its really up to you.

Also, Pacers according to my Math get -8.10 so they should be a play at +5.5

**barts185** · 01-25-10, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by og4667

ok got ya, thanks for the instructions and the setup. Suns should be a play, but the Barbosa injury raises questions. Barbosa was inserted into the starting lineup a week ago to help get his offense going but as far as I can remember he has been played as their 6th man. Richardson has started all season but was coming off the bench as of last week. So...Aoz is right, I think as far as the strict system plays go it might not be a play but its really up to you.

Also, Pacers according to my Math get -8.10 so they should be a play at +5.5

Pacers were a play, but if you got -8.10, you need to check your math.

Seventysixers 349
Pacers 341

So Seventysixers, the home team, are the selected team

349-341=8
8/20=0.4
Add 3 since playing at home, 0.4 + 3 = 3.4

Using the opening line of -4.5 (as far as I've seen, this is supposed to use the opening line, not any line movements),

3.4 + (-4.5) = -1.1

If -1 or higher play the opposite team.

So, Pacers were the play, but curious how you get -8.10?

Good Luck,
Bart

**barts185** · 01-26-10, 12:34 AM

Hope this will help with the math

Spreadsheet is new, I think it works for all cases, but will be checking going forward.

Instructions are in the spreadsheet, but just to go over them.

Step 1 - Click in cell A9. This will open a window with today's games.

Step 2 - On the page which opens, copy from "date=today and site=home" to the bottom of the last Road Win %age.

Step 3, Paste starting in cell A13

Step 4, look down column Q to see if there are any plays

Step 5, REMEMBER THE RULES - NO SPREADS HIGHER THAN -9.5, NO BACK TO BACK GAMES, NO PLAYS IF STARTERS ARE OUT, WAIT A WEEK FOR STARTERS TO RETURN, WAIT 20 GAMES AT THE START OF THE SEASON AND 3 GAMES AFTER THE ALL STAR BREAK!

I hope to add some of the rules in the future so it will check the spreads and for back-to-back games.

But for now, since there still seems to be confusion about the math, thought that this would help.

The only thing that you will need to modify after the copy and paste of today's games from the window that will open would be if you need to modify the opening line.

Remember that the line is the home team's line, not the selected team's line.

Good Luck,
Bart

**PatrickBateman** · 01-26-10, 12:56 AM

Pacers witht the SU win

**barts185** · 01-26-10, 09:42 AM

Numbers for today (I'm rounding the percentage to 3 decimal places and then doing the calculations).

Lakers 10.2, Artest questionable
Knicks 5.75
Mavericks 7.00
Suns 1.85
Kings 3.95

Good Luck,
Bart

**barts185** · 01-26-10, 09:50 AM

One question that I have.

When I read the rules for the initial system, my understanding was that if a starter is out, you don't play on that team, for however long the starter is out. Once the starter returns, you also then wait a week before they become eligible to be a play. In this thread, that seems to have been changed to if a starter is out, wait a week, and then the team is eligible to be a play, even though the starter is still out. Does anyone have any thoughts on which one is correct?

Thanks,
Bart

**aoz1122** · 01-26-10, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by barts185

Numbers for today (I'm rounding the percentage to 3 decimal places and then doing the calculations).

Lakers 10.2, Artest questionable
Knicks 5.75
Mavericks 7.00
Suns 1.85
Kings 3.95

Good Luck,
Bart

Bart - I think you need to re-check your math on GSW/SAC game. My sheet has Kings -1.534, which would make GSW a play if not for Jon Brockman being questionable.