NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

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  • GolfAddict
    SBR Rookie
    • 11-05-14
    • 37

    #1996
    Kinda busy with NFL today. Most likely wont have a 'Best Bet' today
    Comment
    • Jay Price
      SBR Sharp
      • 07-10-10
      • 284

      #1997
      With a total 194 or greater:

      2-22-1 (-5.72, 8.3%)
      Get some Mako
      Originally posted by Mako-SBR
      NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

      11-23-14 - 11:10am PST

      Play: GS (-8) vs OKC, -110

      SDQL:

      HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006

      SDQL English:

      Fading a home dog with a day or more of rest that lost its last game both straight up and ATS, and in that loss chucked it up a ton from beyond the arc while making them at a far lower level than average...against a streaking hot opponent laying four or more points.

      Notes:

      Lot of points to lay and this play is usually the squarest of square bets on the card when it seldomly comes up (meaning the public is all over the favorite and the line is typically garbage because of it), but until it burns me I'll keep playing it, and what's not to like about tailing Golden State...right?
      Comment
      • SportsMind
        SBR Rookie
        • 11-03-14
        • 32

        #1998
        Football today! Thanks guys!
        Comment
        • Ronald S.
          SBR Sharp
          • 07-02-13
          • 344

          #1999
          NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

          11/23/14 6:00 PM EST

          Warriors/Thunder Over 196.5 -105 (5dimes)

          total<=200 and line<=-7.5 and p:P4<=16 and p:W and season>=2009
          O/U: 31-10-1 (9.48, 75.6%) avg total: 189.8

          Play the Over in a game with a total less than 200 and a 7.5 pt favorite or better if the favorite is coming off a win in their previous game and scored 16 points or fewer in the 4th quarter of that game.
          Comment
          • pip2
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-21-12
            • 543

            #2000
            Originally posted by Ronald S.
            NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

            11/23/14 6:00 PM EST

            Warriors/Thunder Over 196.5 -105 (5dimes)

            total<=200 and line<=-7.5 and p:P4<=16 and p:W and season>=2009
            O/U: 31-10-1 (9.48, 75.6%) avg total: 189.8

            Play the Over in a game with a total less than 200 and a 7.5 pt favorite or better if the favorite is coming off a win in their previous game and scored 16 points or fewer in the 4th quarter of that game.
            Best of luck Ronald, I looked the query up and down and it seems really well done to me. If it wins, more power to you and your query for predicting it, because lately these are not two teams that have been good to Overs. But hopefully your query is predicting/catching them as they regress back to the mean...
            Comment
            • pip2
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 10-21-12
              • 543

              #2001
              Spitball Query Results

              0-1: lal/den over funfreaker O/U:183-117-3 (4.66, 61.0%)
              tA(FGA) > 84.3 and otA(FGA) > 84.4 and H and tA(turnovers) + otA(turnovers) <=30.5

              1-0: cha covers vs mia from J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
              AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

              1-0: por covers vs bos from hyahya ATS: 21-38-0
              H and season > 2000 and line > 5 and p:margin < -15 and op:margin > 5 and p:A and pp:A

              1-0: por covers vs bos From nash13 sitpost# 1291 ATS: 91-158-7 (-2.05, 36.5%)
              H and p:fouls <= 14 and p:AD and 7 > line > -10

              Total 3-1
              Comment
              • JMon
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-11-09
                • 9800

                #2002
                Overall Group Record - 38-26-1 59.3% (+9.53) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

                Yesterday's recap 3-2 (+.85) -

                Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

                1. JMon -
                5-4 (+1.40)

                2. pip2 - 5-3 (+1.85)

                3. nash13
                - 5-2 (+2.97)

                4. Ronald S.
                - 5-4 (+.85)

                5. hyahya
                - 4-3 (+.65)

                6. Mako-SBR
                - 3-5 (-2.50)

                7. FlyinAir
                - 1-2 (-1.45)


                8. Consigliere
                - 6-2-1 (+3.86)

                9. Sports Mind
                - 2-0 (+2.00)

                10. GolfAddict -
                1-1 (-.10)
                Comment
                • pip2
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-21-12
                  • 543

                  #2003
                  Spitball Queries

                  f4 hou/ny and phi/por UNDER from rcgriffin O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
                  p:dps < -11 and op:dpa < -11 and rest <=1 and o:rest <=1

                  ny covers vs hou From JR ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
                  AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o:ats streak <3

                  ny covers vs hou From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
                  AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2003 and on:H and 8 <= game number <= 63 and day!=Sunday and day!=Thursday

                  phi covers vs por From Tom ATS: 142-74-3 (2.96, 65.7%)
                  H and (line > 10 or line < -15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line <= 15

                  phi/por UNDER From jmon O/U: 9-32-0 (-8.16, 22.0%)
                  total > 202 and pu margin <= -18 and WP <=25 and 2009 <=season

                  lac covers vs cha from consigliere -- ATS: 304-215-11 (0.57, 58.6%)
                  AF and p:AL and p:ats margin < 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2006

                  lac covers vs cha pip --ATS:93-142-3 (-2.11, 39.6%)
                  season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest=0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60
                  Comment
                  • Consigliere
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 02-10-13
                    • 126

                    #2004
                    Going to post some of the splits for the spreadsheet data for everyone to see...some interesting early trends on how the spreadsheet trends (up to 119 now) have been tracking. 3-2 last night for another winning night tailing blindly!
                    Comment
                    • Consigliere
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 02-10-13
                      • 126

                      #2005
                      Row Labels Sum of Win Sum of Loose Sum of Unique wins Sum of Unique Losses
                      LT 70 45 41 27
                      MT 13 7 8 2
                      ST 17 17 8 8
                      #N/A 1 0 1 0
                      0 1 1 0 0
                      Grand Total 102 70 58 37
                      These are LT(long term), MT(medium term), ST(short term) based on the CUSUM data I've accumulated. Again, not sure the best way to share this data yet and its still a work in progress. Showing the ST trends to be 50-50s so far, which is not surprising when you have long history of data to look at.
                      Comment
                      • Consigliere
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 02-10-13
                        • 126

                        #2006
                        Row Labels Sum of Win Sum of Loose Sum of Unique wins Sum of Unique Losses
                        ATS 69 46 38 20
                        OVER 18 12 14 10
                        UNDER 15 12 6 7
                        Grand Total 102 70 58 37
                        This is looking at ATS/OU split...ATS is doing really well...surprisingly OVERS also doing well and UNDERS not so good...you would think majority of value in the Unders but not so far. Still early to tell on the TOTAL trends with pretty small sample size but you start to get a feeling for how things are looking.
                        Comment
                        • Consigliere
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 02-10-13
                          • 126

                          #2007
                          Row Labels Sum of Win Sum of Loose Sum of Unique wins Sum of Unique Losses
                          09.11.2014 1 0 1 0
                          10.11.2014 2 2 1 2
                          11.11.2014 3 2 2 1
                          12.11.2014 10 4 7 3
                          13.11.2014 1 0 1 0
                          14.11.2014 9 5 7 2
                          15.11.2014 6 7 5 5
                          16.11.2014 0 3 0 2
                          17.11.2014 12 2 7 1
                          18.11.2014 4 3 2 3
                          19.11.2014 19 20 6 7
                          20.11.2014 4 0 2 0
                          21.11.2014 10 9 9 5
                          22.11.2014 15 11 5 4
                          23.11.2014 6 2 3 2
                          Grand Total 102 70 58 37
                          By date....5 losing days in 14 pretty solid with 1 of those 50-50 and 3 at -1
                          Comment
                          • Consigliere
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 02-10-13
                            • 126

                            #2008
                            Row Labels Sum of Win Sum of Loose Sum of Unique wins Sum of Unique Losses
                            NBA01 4 0 4 0
                            NBA03 1 0 0 0
                            NBA04 1 1 1 1
                            NBA06 2 1 2 1
                            NBA07 1 0 1 0
                            NBA08 2 3 1 3
                            NBA101 1 1 0 1
                            NBA103 0 1 0 1
                            NBA104 1 0 0 0
                            NBA105 0 1 0 0
                            NBA106 1 0 0 0
                            NBA107 1 0 0 0
                            NBA11 2 1 0 0
                            NBA12 2 0 1 0
                            NBA13 2 0 0 0
                            NBA15 2 0 1 0
                            NBA17 2 0 2 0
                            NBA20 0 2 0 1
                            NBA21 2 3 1 3
                            NBA23 1 1 1 1
                            NBA26 1 0 0 0
                            NBA27 1 1 1 1
                            NBA30 1 1 0 1
                            NBA32 0 1 0 1
                            NBA36 0 2 0 1
                            NBA37 2 0 2 0
                            NBA39 1 0 1 0
                            NBA40 2 0 1 0
                            NBA45 1 1 0 1
                            NBA46 0 2 0 1
                            NBA48 2 0 0 0
                            NBA49 1 1 0 0
                            NBA53 1 0 0 0
                            NBA55 2 0 0 0
                            NBA56 2 2 2 1
                            NBA57 0 2 0 2
                            NBA59 1 3 1 0
                            NBA60 1 1 1 0
                            NBA62 1 0 1 0
                            NBA63 5 6 2 2
                            NBA65 0 1 0 0
                            NBA66 2 0 1 0
                            NBA67 0 1 0 1
                            NBA69 0 1 0 0
                            NBA70 1 0 0 0
                            NBA71 1 0 1 0
                            NBA72 5 4 5 2
                            NBA73 0 4 0 1
                            NBA74 1 1 1 0
                            NBA75 2 0 2 0
                            NBA76 6 0 4 0
                            NBA77 4 2 3 1
                            NBA78 1 1 0 0
                            NBA82 0 1 0 1
                            NBA83 4 1 2 0
                            NBA84 1 1 0 0
                            NBA85 2 1 0 0
                            NBA87 4 2 3 2
                            NBA89 3 1 1 1
                            NBA90 1 1 1 1
                            NBA92 3 0 2 0
                            NBA93 0 1 0 0
                            NBA94 1 0 1 0
                            NBA96 1 0 1 0
                            NBA16 0 2 0 2
                            NBA97 1 0 1 0
                            NBA111 0 1 0 0
                            NBA112 1 1 0 0
                            NBA47 0 1 0 0
                            NBA58 1 0 0 0
                            NBA61 0 1 0 1
                            NBA99 0 1 0 0
                            NBA117 1 0 1 0
                            NBA52 1 0 0 0
                            NBA68 1 0 1 0
                            NBA95 0 1 0 1
                            Grand Total 102 70 58 37
                            Comment
                            • hyahya
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 03-08-14
                              • 165

                              #2009
                              Great work Consig, I'm a sucker for data.
                              Comment
                              • Ronald S.
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 07-02-13
                                • 344

                                #2010
                                NBA Best Bet

                                11/24/14 2:00 PM EST

                                Raptors/Suns Under 207.5 -103 (5dimes)

                                p:ats margin >= 19 and op:ats margin >= 19 and H
                                O/U: 19-44-0 (-7.37, 30.2%) avg total: 194.3

                                Will try this one again even though last one whiffed and have whiffed on totals in general lol. Play the under in a game where both teams covered their previous games by at least 19 points. O/U is 12-34 if both teams covered previous games by 20 points or more. (Raptors covered by 20 last game; Suns by 21)
                                Comment
                                • hyahya
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 03-08-14
                                  • 165

                                  #2011
                                  Consig, would you be able to provide which queries are LT and MT?
                                  Comment
                                  • Mako-SBR
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 10-15-13
                                    • 492

                                    #2012
                                    Originally posted by hyahya
                                    Great work Consig, I'm a sucker for data.
                                    Me too, awesome Consig, loving it.

                                    One thing I'm noticing as a part of my daily betting routine now is screening my own queries in the morning, identifying the plays, then going to nash's database and going through the daily picks.

                                    If I see a nice consensus bet (multiple queries all pointing the same direction with no conflicts), and I'm not already on the game, I add it...as I did today with CHI (-3.5) UTH, because NBA12/56/100 make sense and are highlighting it.

                                    I'll also sometimes look at the picks to see if there's something I like specifically, in today's case it's the 76er game which appeals to me as the Raiders TNF game did last week...they have to win outright at some point, might as well take a home game and +12.5 points against Portland who are 2-2 on the road to see if they can grab it. NBA100 is pointing to them, might as well tail it.

                                    Then I head to this thread, scan through the new comments, and see if there are any new queries added for today's games that make logical sense. Today there aren't any so far, but Consig's interesting update on the season made for great reading and allow more conclusions and possibly accuracy to be achieved as we go.

                                    All of that in a half an hour...quick, easy, and so far this season winning, can't ask for more. Nice job all and thanks for your great efforts.

                                    Comment
                                    • Mako-SBR
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 10-15-13
                                      • 492

                                      #2013
                                      NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

                                      11-24-14 - 12:25p PST

                                      Play: LAC (-5) CHA -110

                                      SDQL:

                                      HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006

                                      SDQL English:

                                      Same one as yesterday (which lost btw as OKC covered against Golden State), riding it again in hope of a bounceback.

                                      Notes:

                                      There are only seven games today and yet somehow I am playing six of them...got to love SDQL addiction haha.
                                      Comment
                                      • Consigliere
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 02-10-13
                                        • 126

                                        #2014
                                        Originally posted by hyahya
                                        Consig, would you be able to provide which queries are LT and MT?
                                        I can going forward but would prefer to figure out how to share this so I'm not accountable for it. The key is filtering out short term which is really just when someone puts a trend and cuts it off by a certain season because it did poorly before that. Those trends become obvious with the cusum methods.
                                        Comment
                                        • Consigliere
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 02-10-13
                                          • 126

                                          #2015
                                          Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                                          NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

                                          11-24-14 - 12:25p PST

                                          Play: LAC (-5) CHA -110

                                          SDQL:

                                          HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006

                                          SDQL English:

                                          Same one as yesterday (which lost btw as OKC covered against Golden State), riding it again in hope of a bounceback.

                                          Notes:

                                          There are only seven games today and yet somehow I am playing six of them...got to love SDQL addiction haha.
                                          Rise the wave. The collection we have has been doing very well AND is high volume.
                                          Comment
                                          • Consigliere
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 02-10-13
                                            • 126

                                            #2016
                                            NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

                                            11-24-14 - 3:47pmEST

                                            Play: LAC (-4.5) CHA -110 @ Carib (2nd to the dance again here with Mako already on this, but I like the Clips against middling Eastern foe)

                                            SDQL:

                                            p:margin < -15 and AF
                                            SDQL English:

                                            A team that is coming off a blow-out loss and is favoured on the road. A contrarian play that takes a team that is undervalued.I'm playing all the ATS trends in the spreadsheet today but staying off the totals. Although I think there is long term value in the total trends I am waiting to see a turnaround. Even some of our wins have been very tight margins and almost all the games have been very close, so seems like the books have the totals dialed in and not much value to extract. Additionally, the totals lines have moved against most of the trends which potentially erases more value.
                                            Comment
                                            • pip2
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 10-21-12
                                              • 543

                                              #2017
                                              NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

                                              11/24/14 1:05pm pst Reduced Basketball 705 Los Angeles Clippers -5 -105* vs Charlotte Hornets

                                              SDQL:

                                              season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest=0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60

                                              SDQL: English

                                              Since 2005 the home dog tends to lose when they have just lost a game the day before and it isn't too early or too late in the season...
                                              Comment
                                              • nash13
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-21-14
                                                • 1122

                                                #2018
                                                NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

                                                11-24-14 - 10:20 CET

                                                Play: LAC (-5) CHA -110

                                                SDQL:

                                                HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006

                                                SDQL English:

                                                Same one as yesterday (which lost btw as OKC covered against Golden State), riding it again in hope of a bounceback.
                                                Comment
                                                • hyahya
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 03-08-14
                                                  • 165

                                                  #2019
                                                  NBA Best Bet

                                                  11/24/14 2:00 PM PST
                                                  Play Philadelphia 76ers +13 (-110)

                                                  H and (line>10 or line<-15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line<=15

                                                  Play rested home team as a large dog or large favorite where the previous line was less that +15.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • hyahya
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 03-08-14
                                                    • 165

                                                    #2020
                                                    Originally posted by Consigliere
                                                    I can going forward but would prefer to figure out how to share this so I'm not accountable for it. The key is filtering out short term which is really just when someone puts a trend and cuts it off by a certain season because it did poorly before that. Those trends become obvious with the cusum methods.
                                                    Cool, wouldn't want you to be accountable for it, maybe have a column in the spreadsheet?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Consigliere
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 02-10-13
                                                      • 126

                                                      #2021
                                                      Originally posted by nash13
                                                      NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

                                                      11-24-14 - 10:20 CET

                                                      Play: LAC (-5) CHA -110

                                                      SDQL:

                                                      HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006

                                                      SDQL English:

                                                      Same one as yesterday (which lost btw as OKC covered against Golden State), riding it again in hope of a bounceback.
                                                      This looks good on CUSUM but has had as much as a 7 loss in a row. Other than that there have been 2 streaks of 3 losses.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SportsMind
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 11-03-14
                                                        • 32

                                                        #2022
                                                        I can't come up with anything I like. Good luck today guys.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JMon
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-11-09
                                                          • 9800

                                                          #2023
                                                          geez...I sure hope LAC covers...that is for the sake of the group today..
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Consigliere
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 02-10-13
                                                            • 126

                                                            #2024
                                                            Originally posted by hyahya
                                                            Cool, wouldn't want you to be accountable for it, maybe have a column in the spreadsheet?
                                                            It is nice to see my evaluation which is usually the obvious ones but it's also important to look at the chart. I finished the plots today and will figure out how to share them on the spreadsheet.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Consigliere
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 02-10-13
                                                              • 126

                                                              #2025
                                                              Originally posted by JMon
                                                              geez...I sure hope LAC covers...that is for the sake of the group today..
                                                              With this many on this one it must be a lock!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JMon
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 12-11-09
                                                                • 9800

                                                                #2026
                                                                NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

                                                                11-24-14 - 4:20p CT


                                                                Play: CHI -3 -110

                                                                SDQL: A and 102>=tA(points)>=98 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and pooints>=100 and ppooints>=100 and 2009<=season and line<8

                                                                SDQL English:

                                                                Since 2009 play a road fav or dog no higher than 7.5; a good offensive team vs a poor defensive team after allowing 100pt or more b2b. Rested team of 2 days hits 82% ATS; favorites hit 79% ATS.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JMon
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-11-09
                                                                  • 9800

                                                                  #2027
                                                                  Originally posted by Consigliere
                                                                  With this many on this one it must be a lock!
                                                                  ooohh no never say the word l..k . We investors are superstitious
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • nash13
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-21-14
                                                                    • 1122

                                                                    #2028
                                                                    Something I tested with MLB data back in the years came back into my mind by looking at the NBA queries.
                                                                    Most of the Trends i got for MLB back then queried Dog Wins.
                                                                    So i thought in reverse psychology that by the law of averages the games left out must be FAV Wins by design.

                                                                    Taking this to the NBA level
                                                                    we have 50 ATS trends who look up Away Teams, Fav or Dog no matter.
                                                                    So if these queries leave out a game by design the likelihood of being an ATS Home Win increases.
                                                                    Something to think about.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JMon
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                                      • 9800

                                                                      #2029
                                                                      NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

                                                                      11-24-14 - some plays maybe pending.

                                                                      Ronald S. - TOR UN 207.5 (1.03 to win 1)

                                                                      Mako - LAC -5 (1.10 to win 1)

                                                                      Consig - LAC -4.5 (1.1 to win 1)

                                                                      pip2 - LAC -5 (1.05 to win 1)

                                                                      Nash13 - LAC -5 (1.1 to win 1)

                                                                      hyahya - PHIL +13 (1.1 to win 1)

                                                                      JMon - CHI -3 (1.1 to win 1)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JMon
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 12-11-09
                                                                        • 9800

                                                                        #2030
                                                                        Just a note to those following the Best Bet tracking. I will be on the road Wed, Thurs for the holidays, but should be able to track. In case I don't I will calculate on Friday.

                                                                        In the future, I would like to know if anyone would be willing to help track in case I'm away for an extended period of time????
                                                                        Comment
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