Kinda busy with NFL today. Most likely wont have a 'Best Bet' today
NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL
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GolfAddictSBR Rookie
- 11-05-14
- 37
#1996Comment -
Jay PriceSBR Sharp
- 07-10-10
- 284
#1997With a total 194 or greater:
Get some Mako2-22-1 (-5.72, 8.3%)
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-23-14 - 11:10am PST
Play: GS (-8) vs OKC, -110
SDQL:
HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006
SDQL English:
Fading a home dog with a day or more of rest that lost its last game both straight up and ATS, and in that loss chucked it up a ton from beyond the arc while making them at a far lower level than average...against a streaking hot opponent laying four or more points.
Notes:
Lot of points to lay and this play is usually the squarest of square bets on the card when it seldomly comes up (meaning the public is all over the favorite and the line is typically garbage because of it), but until it burns me I'll keep playing it, and what's not to like about tailing Golden State...right?Comment -
SportsMindSBR Rookie
- 11-03-14
- 32
#1998Football today! Thanks guys!Comment -
Ronald S.SBR Sharp
- 07-02-13
- 344
#1999NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11/23/14 6:00 PM EST
Warriors/Thunder Over 196.5 -105 (5dimes)
total<=200 and line<=-7.5 and p:P4<=16 and p:W and season>=2009
O/U: 31-10-1 (9.48, 75.6%) avg total: 189.8
Play the Over in a game with a total less than 200 and a 7.5 pt favorite or better if the favorite is coming off a win in their previous game and scored 16 points or fewer in the 4th quarter of that game.Comment -
pip2SBR Wise Guy
- 10-21-12
- 543
#2000NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11/23/14 6:00 PM EST
Warriors/Thunder Over 196.5 -105 (5dimes)
total<=200 and line<=-7.5 and p:P4<=16 and p:W and season>=2009
O/U: 31-10-1 (9.48, 75.6%) avg total: 189.8
Play the Over in a game with a total less than 200 and a 7.5 pt favorite or better if the favorite is coming off a win in their previous game and scored 16 points or fewer in the 4th quarter of that game.Comment -
pip2SBR Wise Guy
- 10-21-12
- 543
#2001Spitball Query Results
0-1: lal/den over funfreaker O/U:183-117-3 (4.66, 61.0%)
tA(FGA) > 84.3 and otA(FGA) > 84.4 and H and tA(turnovers) + otA(turnovers) <=30.5
1-0: cha covers vs mia from J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3
1-0: por covers vs bos from hyahya ATS: 21-38-0
H and season > 2000 and line > 5 and p:margin < -15 and op:margin > 5 and p:A and pp:A
1-0: por covers vs bos From nash13 sitpost# 1291 ATS: 91-158-7 (-2.05, 36.5%)
H and p:fouls <= 14 and p:AD and 7 > line > -10
Total 3-1Comment -
JMonSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-11-09
- 9800
#2002Overall Group Record - 38-26-1 59.3% (+9.53) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)
Yesterday's recap 3-2 (+.85) -
Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:
1. JMon - 5-4 (+1.40)
2. pip2 - 5-3 (+1.85)
3. nash13 - 5-2 (+2.97)
4. Ronald S. - 5-4 (+.85)
5. hyahya - 4-3 (+.65)
6. Mako-SBR - 3-5 (-2.50)
7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)
8. Consigliere - 6-2-1 (+3.86)
9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)
10. GolfAddict - 1-1 (-.10)Comment -
pip2SBR Wise Guy
- 10-21-12
- 543
#2003Spitball Queries
f4 hou/ny and phi/por UNDER from rcgriffin O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps < -11 and op:dpa < -11 and rest <=1 and o:rest <=1
ny covers vs hou From JR ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o:ats streak <3
ny covers vs hou From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2003 and on:H and 8 <= game number <= 63 and day!=Sunday and day!=Thursday
phi covers vs por From Tom ATS: 142-74-3 (2.96, 65.7%)
H and (line > 10 or line < -15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line <= 15
phi/por UNDER From jmon O/U: 9-32-0 (-8.16, 22.0%)
total > 202 and pu margin <= -18 and WP <=25 and 2009 <=season
lac covers vs cha from consigliere -- ATS: 304-215-11 (0.57, 58.6%)
AF and p:AL and p:ats margin < 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2006
lac covers vs cha pip --ATS:93-142-3 (-2.11, 39.6%)
season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest=0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2004Going to post some of the splits for the spreadsheet data for everyone to see...some interesting early trends on how the spreadsheet trends (up to 119 now) have been tracking. 3-2 last night for another winning night tailing blindly!Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2005These are LT(long term), MT(medium term), ST(short term) based on the CUSUM data I've accumulated. Again, not sure the best way to share this data yet and its still a work in progress. Showing the ST trends to be 50-50s so far, which is not surprising when you have long history of data to look at.Row Labels Sum of Win Sum of Loose Sum of Unique wins Sum of Unique Losses LT 70 45 41 27 MT 13 7 8 2 ST 17 17 8 8 #N/A 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 Grand Total 102 70 58 37 Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2006This is looking at ATS/OU split...ATS is doing really well...surprisingly OVERS also doing well and UNDERS not so good...you would think majority of value in the Unders but not so far. Still early to tell on the TOTAL trends with pretty small sample size but you start to get a feeling for how things are looking.Row Labels Sum of Win Sum of Loose Sum of Unique wins Sum of Unique Losses ATS 69 46 38 20 OVER 18 12 14 10 UNDER 15 12 6 7 Grand Total 102 70 58 37 Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2007By date....5 losing days in 14 pretty solid with 1 of those 50-50 and 3 at -1Row Labels Sum of Win Sum of Loose Sum of Unique wins Sum of Unique Losses 09.11.2014 1 0 1 0 10.11.2014 2 2 1 2 11.11.2014 3 2 2 1 12.11.2014 10 4 7 3 13.11.2014 1 0 1 0 14.11.2014 9 5 7 2 15.11.2014 6 7 5 5 16.11.2014 0 3 0 2 17.11.2014 12 2 7 1 18.11.2014 4 3 2 3 19.11.2014 19 20 6 7 20.11.2014 4 0 2 0 21.11.2014 10 9 9 5 22.11.2014 15 11 5 4 23.11.2014 6 2 3 2 Grand Total 102 70 58 37 Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2008Row Labels Sum of Win Sum of Loose Sum of Unique wins Sum of Unique Losses NBA01 4 0 4 0 NBA03 1 0 0 0 NBA04 1 1 1 1 NBA06 2 1 2 1 NBA07 1 0 1 0 NBA08 2 3 1 3 NBA101 1 1 0 1 NBA103 0 1 0 1 NBA104 1 0 0 0 NBA105 0 1 0 0 NBA106 1 0 0 0 NBA107 1 0 0 0 NBA11 2 1 0 0 NBA12 2 0 1 0 NBA13 2 0 0 0 NBA15 2 0 1 0 NBA17 2 0 2 0 NBA20 0 2 0 1 NBA21 2 3 1 3 NBA23 1 1 1 1 NBA26 1 0 0 0 NBA27 1 1 1 1 NBA30 1 1 0 1 NBA32 0 1 0 1 NBA36 0 2 0 1 NBA37 2 0 2 0 NBA39 1 0 1 0 NBA40 2 0 1 0 NBA45 1 1 0 1 NBA46 0 2 0 1 NBA48 2 0 0 0 NBA49 1 1 0 0 NBA53 1 0 0 0 NBA55 2 0 0 0 NBA56 2 2 2 1 NBA57 0 2 0 2 NBA59 1 3 1 0 NBA60 1 1 1 0 NBA62 1 0 1 0 NBA63 5 6 2 2 NBA65 0 1 0 0 NBA66 2 0 1 0 NBA67 0 1 0 1 NBA69 0 1 0 0 NBA70 1 0 0 0 NBA71 1 0 1 0 NBA72 5 4 5 2 NBA73 0 4 0 1 NBA74 1 1 1 0 NBA75 2 0 2 0 NBA76 6 0 4 0 NBA77 4 2 3 1 NBA78 1 1 0 0 NBA82 0 1 0 1 NBA83 4 1 2 0 NBA84 1 1 0 0 NBA85 2 1 0 0 NBA87 4 2 3 2 NBA89 3 1 1 1 NBA90 1 1 1 1 NBA92 3 0 2 0 NBA93 0 1 0 0 NBA94 1 0 1 0 NBA96 1 0 1 0 NBA16 0 2 0 2 NBA97 1 0 1 0 NBA111 0 1 0 0 NBA112 1 1 0 0 NBA47 0 1 0 0 NBA58 1 0 0 0 NBA61 0 1 0 1 NBA99 0 1 0 0 NBA117 1 0 1 0 NBA52 1 0 0 0 NBA68 1 0 1 0 NBA95 0 1 0 1 Grand Total 102 70 58 37 Comment -
hyahyaSBR High Roller
- 03-08-14
- 165
#2009Great work Consig, I'm a sucker for data.Comment -
Ronald S.SBR Sharp
- 07-02-13
- 344
#2010NBA Best Bet
11/24/14 2:00 PM EST
Raptors/Suns Under 207.5 -103 (5dimes)
p:ats margin >= 19 and op:ats margin >= 19 and H
O/U: 19-44-0 (-7.37, 30.2%) avg total: 194.3
Will try this one again even though last one whiffed and have whiffed on totals in general lol. Play the under in a game where both teams covered their previous games by at least 19 points. O/U is 12-34 if both teams covered previous games by 20 points or more. (Raptors covered by 20 last game; Suns by 21)Comment -
hyahyaSBR High Roller
- 03-08-14
- 165
#2011Consig, would you be able to provide which queries are LT and MT?Comment -
Mako-SBRSBR Sharp
- 10-15-13
- 492
#2012Me too, awesome Consig, loving it.
One thing I'm noticing as a part of my daily betting routine now is screening my own queries in the morning, identifying the plays, then going to nash's database and going through the daily picks.
If I see a nice consensus bet (multiple queries all pointing the same direction with no conflicts), and I'm not already on the game, I add it...as I did today with CHI (-3.5) UTH, because NBA12/56/100 make sense and are highlighting it.
I'll also sometimes look at the picks to see if there's something I like specifically, in today's case it's the 76er game which appeals to me as the Raiders TNF game did last week...they have to win outright at some point, might as well take a home game and +12.5 points against Portland who are 2-2 on the road to see if they can grab it. NBA100 is pointing to them, might as well tail it.
Then I head to this thread, scan through the new comments, and see if there are any new queries added for today's games that make logical sense. Today there aren't any so far, but Consig's interesting update on the season made for great reading and allow more conclusions and possibly accuracy to be achieved as we go.
All of that in a half an hour...quick, easy, and so far this season winning, can't ask for more. Nice job all and thanks for your great efforts.
Comment -
Mako-SBRSBR Sharp
- 10-15-13
- 492
#2013NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-24-14 - 12:25p PST
Play: LAC (-5) CHA -110
SDQL:
HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006
SDQL English:
Same one as yesterday (which lost btw as OKC covered against Golden State), riding it again in hope of a bounceback.
Notes:
There are only seven games today and yet somehow I am playing six of them...got to love SDQL addiction haha.Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2014I can going forward but would prefer to figure out how to share this so I'm not accountable for it. The key is filtering out short term which is really just when someone puts a trend and cuts it off by a certain season because it did poorly before that. Those trends become obvious with the cusum methods.Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2015NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-24-14 - 12:25p PST
Play: LAC (-5) CHA -110
SDQL:
HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006
SDQL English:
Same one as yesterday (which lost btw as OKC covered against Golden State), riding it again in hope of a bounceback.
Notes:
There are only seven games today and yet somehow I am playing six of them...got to love SDQL addiction haha.Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2016NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-24-14 - 3:47pmEST
Play: LAC (-4.5) CHA -110 @ Carib (2nd to the dance again here with Mako already on this, but I like the Clips against middling Eastern foe)
SDQL:
p:margin < -15 and AF
SDQL English:
A team that is coming off a blow-out loss and is favoured on the road. A contrarian play that takes a team that is undervalued.I'm playing all the ATS trends in the spreadsheet today but staying off the totals. Although I think there is long term value in the total trends I am waiting to see a turnaround. Even some of our wins have been very tight margins and almost all the games have been very close, so seems like the books have the totals dialed in and not much value to extract. Additionally, the totals lines have moved against most of the trends which potentially erases more value.Comment -
pip2SBR Wise Guy
- 10-21-12
- 543
#2017NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11/24/14 1:05pm pst Reduced Basketball 705 Los Angeles Clippers -5 -105* vs Charlotte Hornets
SDQL:
season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest=0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60
SDQL: English
Since 2005 the home dog tends to lose when they have just lost a game the day before and it isn't too early or too late in the season...Comment -
nash13SBR MVP
- 01-21-14
- 1122
#2018NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-24-14 - 10:20 CET
Play: LAC (-5) CHA -110
SDQL:
HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006
SDQL English:
Same one as yesterday (which lost btw as OKC covered against Golden State), riding it again in hope of a bounceback.Comment -
hyahyaSBR High Roller
- 03-08-14
- 165
#2019NBA Best Bet
11/24/14 2:00 PM PST
Play Philadelphia 76ers +13 (-110)
H and (line>10 or line<-15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line<=15
Play rested home team as a large dog or large favorite where the previous line was less that +15.Comment -
hyahyaSBR High Roller
- 03-08-14
- 165
#2020I can going forward but would prefer to figure out how to share this so I'm not accountable for it. The key is filtering out short term which is really just when someone puts a trend and cuts it off by a certain season because it did poorly before that. Those trends become obvious with the cusum methods.Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2021NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-24-14 - 10:20 CET
Play: LAC (-5) CHA -110
SDQL:
HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006
SDQL English:
Same one as yesterday (which lost btw as OKC covered against Golden State), riding it again in hope of a bounceback.Comment -
SportsMindSBR Rookie
- 11-03-14
- 32
#2022I can't come up with anything I like. Good luck today guys.Comment -
JMonSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-11-09
- 9800
#2023geez...I sure hope LAC covers...that is for the sake of the group today..Comment -
ConsigliereSBR High Roller
- 02-10-13
- 126
#2024It is nice to see my evaluation which is usually the obvious ones but it's also important to look at the chart. I finished the plots today and will figure out how to share them on the spreadsheet.Comment -
JMonSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-11-09
- 9800
#2026NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-24-14 - 4:20p CT
Play: CHI -3 -110
SDQL: A and 102>=tA(points)>=98 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and po
oints>=100 and ppo
oints>=100 and 2009<=season and line<8
SDQL English:
Since 2009 play a road fav or dog no higher than 7.5; a good offensive team vs a poor defensive team after allowing 100pt or more b2b. Rested team of 2 days hits 82% ATS; favorites hit 79% ATS.
Comment -
nash13SBR MVP
- 01-21-14
- 1122
#2028Something I tested with MLB data back in the years came back into my mind by looking at the NBA queries.
Most of the Trends i got for MLB back then queried Dog Wins.
So i thought in reverse psychology that by the law of averages the games left out must be FAV Wins by design.
Taking this to the NBA level
we have 50 ATS trends who look up Away Teams, Fav or Dog no matter.
So if these queries leave out a game by design the likelihood of being an ATS Home Win increases.
Something to think about.Comment -
JMonSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-11-09
- 9800
#2029NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-24-14 - some plays maybe pending.
Ronald S. - TOR UN 207.5 (1.03 to win 1)
Mako - LAC -5 (1.10 to win 1)
Consig - LAC -4.5 (1.1 to win 1)
pip2 - LAC -5 (1.05 to win 1)
Nash13 - LAC -5 (1.1 to win 1)
hyahya - PHIL +13 (1.1 to win 1)
JMon - CHI -3 (1.1 to win 1)
Comment -
JMonSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-11-09
- 9800
#2030Just a note to those following the Best Bet tracking. I will be on the road Wed, Thurs for the holidays, but should be able to track. In case I don't I will calculate on Friday.
In the future, I would like to know if anyone would be willing to help track in case I'm away for an extended period of time????Comment
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