NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[pip2]

Great work on this thread! The work here is fantastic. I'm just figuring out this SDQL world, but liking it so far.
Were Pip2's queries from this morning (Post #1832) just spitballing to get the day started? Two of them were plays anyway (NY and NO), but he also had the Lakers on a 97-49-2 ATS trend. Hindsight is easy, as it looks like they will cover...just wondering if it just slipped thru. Anytime I see a trend with 150+ plays over 60% to back it up, it gets my attention.

Heh! Spitballing would be a reasonably accurate description, and a decent title for the posts ...

[JMon]

Overall Group Record - 22-16 57.8% (+5.15)

Yesterday's recap 2-3 (-1.20)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 2-4 (-1.60)

2. pip2 - 2-1 (+.95)

3. nash13 - 4-1 (+3.00)

4. Ronald S. - 4-1 (+2.95)

5. hyahya - 2-3 (-1.35)

6. Mako-SBR - 2-3 (-1.30)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 4-1 (+2.95)

9. Sports Mind - 1-0 (+1.00)

10. Forty Six - 0-0 (0.00)

[JMon]

I have touched out to Forty Six with no response. If someone wants to take his spot, let me know.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-19-14 - 7.52a CT

Play LAC -4.5 -110

SDQL:

A and 102>=tA(points)>=98 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and pooints>=100 and ppooints>=100 and 2009<=season and line<8

SDQL English:

Since 2009, play a road team with a good offense playing a poor defense after giving up 100 or more two straight games. Favs hit 78.6% in this role. I also like this game to go under with a contrarian view of recent defensive performance against a sub-par defense.

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-19-14 - 6:00am PST

Play Phoenix Suns -2½ -105* vs Detroit Pistons

SDQL:

p:H and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and day!=Friday and P:L and season>2006 and game number <75 and month!=2

SDQL: English
This team (Detroit) has been on a road trip of at least 4 games, came back for a game at home, and now is playing the next game after that. This query is not to be played on Fridays or in the month of February, or after the 75th game of the season, and doesn't include games from before the 2007 season.

[pip2]

Spitball Queries

Here is enough to choke a horse:

det/phx OVER from hyahyahO/U: 46-19-2 (5.29, 70.8%)
conference != o:conference and p:LF and p:margin < -9 and season > 2010 and site=home and playoffs=0

bkn/mil OVER from hyahya O/U:44-21-3 (4.24, 67.7%)
tA(FTP)>75 and p:FTP<65 and p:FTA>25 and season>2007 and 190 < total < 200

hou covers vs lal from flyinair ATS:94-59-2 (1.53, 61.4%) O/U:59-94-2 (-3.44, 38.6%)
F and p:AL and p:margin<=-6.5 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-7.5 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

phi/bos UNDER FROM HYAHYA O/U:34-59-2 (-4.02, 36.6%)
H and total>=200 and tS(ou margin<-11,N=2)=2 and game number<30

ind/cha, orl/lac OVER from hyahya O/U:47-30-0 (2.77, 61.0%)
p:WAD and p:margin>=6 and HD and line<=6 and season>=2010 and season

hou covers vs lal from mako ATS: 40-17-1 (3.14, 70.2%) O/U: 17-40-1 (-8.56, 29.8%)
F and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and 185<=total<=216 and C and division!=o:division and season>=2006

phx covers vs det zeeman21 ATS: 308-228-9 (0.71, 57.5%)
site=away and line < 0 and 0 < p:margin and p:streak <=-2 and 19951030 <= date

cle/sa UNDER From b1slickguy O/U: 18-50-1 (-4.38, 26.5 )
210>total>199.5 and 60>=WP>=51 and Sum(ou margin@team and season, N=5) >=36 and season>2007 and playoffs=0 and H

lac covers vs orl from sportsmind -- ATS:43-19-0 (2.88, 69.4%)
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2007 and total>199

cle/sa UNDER From rcg O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps<-11 and op:dpa<-11 and rest<=1 and o:rest<=1

lac covers vs orl from k310 -- ATS:171-223-11 (-0.37, 43.4%)
p:rebounds < po:rebounds and pW and HD

cha covers vs ind from jmon -- ATS:23-57-2 (-2.94, 28.8%)
HD and p:AW and points < 105 and 2011<=season and o:rest<2

sa covers vs cle from jmon -- ATS: 45-9-2 (7.15, 83.3%)
A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and month != 3 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and D

hou covers vs lal From mako ATS: 58-33-1 (2.23, 63.7%)
F and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

phi/bos UNDER From jmon O/U: 9-32-0 (-8.16, 22.0%)
total > 202 and pu margin <= -18 and WP <=25 and 2009 <=season

bos covers vs phi and phi/bos UNDER from ronald ATS:11-22-1 (-3.87, 33.3%) O/U:13-19-2 (-3.15, 40.6%)
H and pu margin < -19.5 and ppu margin < -19.5 and season > 2011

bkn covers vs mil From b1Slickguy2 ATS: 101-77-3 (1.67, 56.7%)
p:HFL and op:W and site=home and -10<=t:line<-5 and 20051225<=date

bkn and hou cover vs mil and lal From me in sitpost #1265 ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

ind and phx cover vs cha and det From me variation on BC ATS: 48-100-4 (-3.41, 32.4%)
p:H and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and day!=Friday and P:L and season>2006 and game number <75 and month!=2

[nash13]

Keep in mind some lines are not entered yet, so Trends may be active for them. Knicks/Wolves game lines are missing.

[Consigliere]

41 trends active on the spreadsheet tonight and 13 unique picks, 5 contradicting selections.....2-3 last night along with the Best Bets...33-19 overall.

NBA06

NBA08

NBA12

NBA13

NBA15

NBA20

NBA21

NBA26

NBA36

NBA37

NBA45

NBA46

NBA48

NBA49

NBA49

NBA53

NBA59

NBA60

NBA63

NBA63

NBA63

NBA65

NBA70

NBA72

NBA72

NBA72

NBA73

NBA74

NBA76

NBA78

NBA83

NBA83

NBA84

NBA85

NBA89

NBA90

NBA93

NBA101

NBA104

NBA105

NBA105

[Cutler'sThumb]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-19-14 - 6:00am PST

Play Phoenix Suns -2½ -105* vs Detroit Pistons

SDQL:

p:H and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and day!=Friday and P:L and season>2006 and game number <75 and month!=2

Hi Pip, as your 2nd post shows, the Pacers fit this trend tonight too. I'm assuming you're just picking one based on other factors for your best bet?

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-19-14 - 2:40PMEST

Play Denver -7-115 @ caribsports vs OKC

SDQL:

(AD or HF) and p:PTP>=33 and pp:PTP>=33 and (p:W or p:FL) and rest<=2 and o:rest<=1 and game number<=80

SDQL: English
HF coming off two games in a row where 33% of their scoring was from beyond the arc and the won their previous game or were favoured but lost. Rest considerations in play where the team is typically a bit more rested than the opponent and this does not include the final games of the year. In this case we're taking the home favourite shooting the three ball well to cover the points. Putting line filtering in around this game yields the same % winning and improves if you look at same conference matchups. There are other supporting trends for this game as well but not as strong as this one and I think this one fits really well with how Denver is playing right now. The only problem I have with this game is that they beat the Cavs which may inflate the line a bit but I also think they bookies are a mess on the Cavs now so let's let it ride on the Nugs.

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-19-14 - 11:45a PST

Play HOU (-12) LAL, -110

SDQL:

HF and division!=o:division and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and season>=2009

SDQL English:

We're betting on a heavy favorite who took their eye off the ball last game (or ran into an even stronger opponent) and either way got smashed by 8 or more on the road. Said team is now back at home and looking to take out that previous road game embarassment on a much weaker non-divisional opponent where the line is set at -10.5 or more.

[Mako-SBR]

Wow, the Clippers (-5), Rockets (-12), and Knicks (+1) all have 4+ queries pointing at them today, with only a single scenario being in conflict (NBA26 pointing to the Lakers).

The DB is starting to have enough queries in it to the point where 'consensus' is easily reached from a variety of great scenarios, which is what we're ultimately after (multiple scenarios all pointing the same direction with few if any conflicts).

Thanks to pip for tracking things daily here on SBR, will be interested to see how things fall today.

[nash13]

I will post my play later. Have to check line movements.

[pip2]

Hi Pip, as your 2nd post shows, the Pacers fit this trend tonight too. I'm assuming you're just picking one based on other factors for your best bet?

Cutler, I kind of like phx, and I believe there are a few other queries calling for a phx cover. When I was working this morning, the cha/ind game wasn't available. I was glad it wasn't really, because there are a couple of other queries showing cha will cover, contrary to my query...

[FunkFreaker]

Wow, the Clippers (-5), Rockets (-12), and Knicks (+1) all have 4+ queries pointing at them today, with only a single scenario being in conflict (NBA26 pointing to the Lakers).

The DB is starting to have enough queries in it to the point where 'consensus' is easily reached from a variety of great scenarios, which is what we're ultimately after (multiple scenarios all pointing the same direction with few if any conflicts).

Thanks to pip for tracking things daily here on SBR, will be interested to see how things fall today.

Knicks queries are not right cause they are taken with line - 1 (as a favorite) and more of them don't appear anymore.

[Mako-SBR]

Knicks queries are not right cause they are taken with line - 1 (as a favorite) and more of them don't appear anymore.

I saw that and wondered, thought the line shifted but it actually opened at Knicks -3, so definitely a typo. Good catch Funk.

[dmitean]

Few thoughts on the queries posted tonight:

Clippers are 1 - 8 ATS this season. Magic covered the last 7 games ATS wise. That is something that queries didn't take in to consideration. I watched a lot of Clippers games (4 or 5) and there is something seriously wrong there and Doc can't solve it. Brought Crawford in to the line up, pulled him back out and so on, but at the moment, Griffin and Jordan together, forces Blake to play too far from the rim and playing Blake and Hawes together, makes them a very poor team on defense.
Also, while Paul posts the same numbers, he just looks a bit off this season. Don't know how to put it. Maybe the trauma from last year's loss to the Thunder in the playoffs, where he cost his team a ticket to the WC Finals still haunts him.
On top of that, Barnes can't hit the ball even in an ocean and that creates tons of problems for Clippers on offense and if he is out, they got tons of problems on defense.
Can't trust them at the moment.

Rockets stats are very very very cheating. Played bad teams or teams with injuries or both. Against good and healthy teams, they are 0 - 2 ATS and SU.
Lakers got Swaggy P back and Kobe suddenly looks like a human again. Doesn't need to carry the Lakers on his shoulders and you can see, how much easier it is for him.
Lakers B2B, so Rockets got some value perhaps, but if I had to choose, Lakers ATS all day.

Detroit at home is a mistery. Worst fourth quarter team for second year straight. A lot of problems and the question is, can SVG correct them. This is a good team on paper, that just can't translate it to court for second year straight.
Heavy frontcourt - heaviest in the league, playing Smish, Monroe and Drummond, facing the heaviest back court, playing with three PG's. Looks like something that in fantasy basketball teams would try and see how it works...
Last year, teams split SU results, but Pistons covered both (barely though).
Detroit outrebounded Suns 69 - 49 in Phoenix (can't believe a team can have such a huge advantage in rebounds and still lose) and 68 - 51 in Detroit. With very similar rosters, can't see any reason for different result rebounding wise.

As for the Knicks and Wolves - very hard to predict. Wolves conceded 270 points there last two games. This number is just mind blowing. With the injuries piling up, they are the perfect fade material on paper.

Can't say I'm too crazy about any of the consesus quaries bets, but Knicks looks to be the best on paper...

[Consigliere]

Wow, the Clippers (-5), Rockets (-12), and Knicks (+1) all have 4+ queries pointing at them today, with only a single scenario being in conflict (NBA26 pointing to the Lakers).

The DB is starting to have enough queries in it to the point where 'consensus' is easily reached from a variety of great scenarios, which is what we're ultimately after (multiple scenarios all pointing the same direction with few if any conflicts).

Thanks to pip for tracking things daily here on SBR, will be interested to see how things fall today.

So far the multi trend picks are performing the same as the regular old single trend picks but that is definitely something to keep an eye on. Also the single trend on the Lakers has low z score and is also a 50-50 if you look back long enough. It's cusum does not look like a viable long term trend.

[nash13]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-19-14 10:20 CET

Play Celtics/76ers Under 212.5 (-103@Pinnacle)

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SDQL: pppppp:wins<=1 and opppppp:wins<=1 and conference=Eastern and o:rest<=1 and ats streak<=1 and total>195

SDQL English: Play the Under on a team who has won only once in their last 6 matches and the same condition goes for the opponent. The team must be from the Eastern Conference. The opponents rest must be maximum 1. In addition to that the team must be on a O/U streak of 1 Over maximum or be on an Under streak. The total of that Game must be higher than 195.

[nash13]

So far the multi trend picks are performing the same as the regular old single trend picks but that is definitely something to keep an eye on. Also the single trend on the Lakers has low z score and is also a 50-50 if you look back long enough. It's cusum does not look like a viable long term trend.

Hi Consigliere,

I'd like to learn how to do th CUMSUM graphs. How do I peform to transfer data for that from SDQL to Excel?
Thx.

[Ronald S.]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/19/14 5:00PM EST

Knicks ML +107 (@Minnesota) 5Dimes reduced juice

AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4
SU: 84-62 (0.03, 57.5%)
ATS: 96-48-2 (2.46, 66.7%) avg line: 2.4
AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 1 and month = 11 and line < 3
SU: 25-7 (3.91, 78.1%)
ATS: 25-7-0 (5.78, 78.1%) avg line: 1.9

Going to take the short road dog on a b2b again tonight but this time on the moneyline. The base query is shown first and there are various ways to fiddle with o:rest and line to get even better results (one example being below the base query) and is why I'm taking a shot on the ML. 25-7, both straight up and ATS when opponent's rest is 2+ and line is 2.5 or less. 11-1 straight up and ATS when opponent's rest is 3+ and line is 2.5 or less. The average ATS margin in these games is pretty astonishing.

[Mako-SBR]

Clippers are 1 - 8 ATS this season. Magic covered the last 7 games ATS wise. That is something that queries didn't take in to consideration. I watched a lot of Clippers games (4 or 5) and there is something seriously wrong there and Doc can't solve it.

Mind-boggling. No one on planet Earth would have thought they'd actually be worse under Rivers than Del Negro by now. No one. Yet that is exactly what is happening, so bizarre.

So far the multi trend picks are performing the same as the regular old single trend picks but that is definitely something to keep an eye on. Also the single trend on the Lakers has low z score and is also a 50-50 if you look back long enough. It's cusum does not look like a viable long term trend.

Nice Consig, we need more cumsum data, how can we automate this and place it in the sheet?

[Consigliere]

Mind-boggling. No one on planet Earth would have thought they'd actually be worse under Rivers than Del Negro by now. No one. Yet that is exactly what is happening, so bizarre.



Nice Consig, we need more cumsum data, how can we automate this and place it in the sheet?

I am working on the data. What I do is remove any date or seasonal filters and then pull the last 1000 games and plot it. I have about 50% of the trends plotted but in Excel. I need a good way to export to a Google doc we can share. If you see the sheets and formulas you will understand. Maybe a Dropbox share would be best?

[GolfAddict]

I would like to get in

[GolfAddict]

JMon
I am interested in taking his spot. I think I can be an asset to your team

[JMon]

JMon
I am interested in taking his spot. I think I can be an asset to your team

You are in! Just make sure you follow the Best Best guidelines when making an official post.

[GolfAddict]

You are in! Just make sure you follow the Best Best guidelines when making an official post.

Will do.
Do you need my e-mail to grant access

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/19/14 - some play may be pending!

JMon - LAC -4.5 (1.1 to win 1)

pip2 - PHX -2.5 (1.05 to win 1)

Consigliere - DEN -7 (1.15 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - HOU -12 (1.1 to win 1)

nash13 - BOS UN 212.5 (1.03 to win 1)

Ronald S. - NYK ML (1 to win +1.07)

BOL miners

[JMon]

Will do.
Do you need my e-mail to grant access

nash13 developed the google doc- so you will need to PM him. I control the Best Bet (for fun during the grind ) on this end.

[JMon]

Just noticed...first time with unique plays on the best bet....

[SportsMind]

No pick tonight. Sorry just busy with other stuff at this moment.

[JMon]

FlyinAir you still around?????

[JMon]

No pick tonight. Sorry just busy with other stuff at this moment.

no problem, thanks for keeping us informed!

[pip2]

Results:

0-1: det/phx OVER from hyahyahO/U: 46-19-2 (5.29, 70.8%)
conference != o:conference and p:LF and p:margin < -9 and season > 2010 and site=home and playoffs=0

1-0: bkn/mil OVER from hyahya O/U:44-21-3 (4.24, 67.7%)
tA(FTP)>75 and p:FTP<65 and p:FTA>25 and season>2007 and 190 < total < 200

0-1: hou covers vs lal from flyinair ATS:94-59-2 (1.53, 61.4%) O/U:59-94-2 (-3.44, 38.6%)
F and p:AL and p:margin<=-6.5 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-7.5 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

1-0: phi/bos UNDER FROM HYAHYA O/U:34-59-2 (-4.02, 36.6%)
H and total>=200 and tS(ou margin<-11,N=2)=2 and game number<30

1-1: ind/cha(L), orl/lac(W) OVER from hyahya O/U:47-30-0 (2.77, 61.0%)
p:WAD and p:margin>=6 and HD and line<=6 and season>=2010 and season

0-1: hou covers vs lal from mako ATS: 40-17-1 (3.14, 70.2%) O/U: 17-40-1 (-8.56, 29.8%)
F and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and 185<=total<=216 and C and division!=o:division and season>=2006

0-1: phx covers vs det zeeman21 ATS: 308-228-9 (0.71, 57.5%)
site=away and line < 0 and 0 < p:margin and p:streak <=-2 and 19951030 <= date

1-0: cle/sa UNDER From b1slickguy O/U: 18-50-1 (-4.38, 26.5 )
210>total>199.5 and 60>=WP>=51 and Sum(ou margin@team and season, N=5) >=36 and season>2007 and playoffs=0 and H

1-0: lac covers vs orl from sportsmind -- ATS:43-19-0 (2.88, 69.4%)
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2007 and total>199

1-0: cle/sa UNDER From rcg O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps<-11 and op:dpa<-11 and rest<=1 and o:rest<=1

1-0: lac covers vs orl from k310 -- ATS:171-223-11 (-0.37, 43.4%)
p:rebounds < po:rebounds and pW and HD

0-0-1: cha covers vs ind from jmon -- ATS:23-57-2 (-2.94, 28.8%)
HD and p:AW and points < 105 and 2011<=season and o:rest<2

1-0: sa covers vs cle from jmon -- ATS: 45-9-2 (7.15, 83.3%)
A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and month != 3 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and D

0-1: hou covers vs lal From mako ATS: 58-33-1 (2.23, 63.7%)
F and p:AL and p:margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

1-0: phi/bos UNDER From jmon O/U: 9-32-0 (-8.16, 22.0%)
total > 202 and pu margin <= -18 and WP <=25 and 2009 <=season

2-0: bos covers vs phi and phi/bos UNDER from ronald ATS:11-22-1 (-3.87, 33.3%) O/U:13-19-2 (-3.15, 40.6%)
H and pu margin < -19.5 and ppu margin < -19.5 and season > 2011

0-1: bkn covers vs mil From b1Slickguy2 ATS: 101-77-3 (1.67, 56.7%)
p:HFL and op:W and site=home and -10<=t:line<-5 and 20051225<=date

0-2: bkn and hou cover vs mil and lal From me in sitpost #1265 ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

0-1-1: ind and phx cover vs cha and det From me variation on BC ATS: 48-100-4 (-3.41, 32.4%)
p:H and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and day!=Friday and P:L and season>2006 and game number <75 and month!=2

Total: 11-10-2

[GolfAddict]

nash13 developed the google doc- so you will need to PM him. I control the Best Bet (for fun during the grind ) on this end.

I can't send PM because I have not reached the required number of posts.
My email is GolfAddict420@gmail.com
Hopefully he sees this post or can you possibly send a message for me?