NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[JMon]

How were the results of the baseball season using these methods?

I ended up roughly 15 units for the season. Down from my previous season averaging 20-30 units. I had a bad bad May, which took me awhile to get out of.

[JMon]

Actually, what I'm saying is that the query is probably invalid as we ran across the same situation in the baseball thread where the A(W) term was used and returned an undefeated query that was bogus.

oh yes I recall!

[Alex Vaile]

I've been watching you guys in this thread. Nice work

[Ronald S.]

@Jmon, lyon: Thanks, wish it would have worked out better though

Good easy win for Sacramento though.

[pip2]

Actually, what I'm saying is that the query is probably invalid as we ran across the same situation in the baseball thread where the A(W) term was used and returned an undefeated query that was bogus.

Damn! That IS a freaky little parameter. Every time I use it, the system seems to stall as if I just asked it to add up God, then it gives up freaky results. A(W) < .60 gives every game in the data base. A(W)<.40 gives one game on November 3 1995 played by the Bucks.

I was hoping it was the Super Parameter, but I guess it is just the Bogus Parameter...too late for me, I already laid money on the dreadful Pistons, but hopefully its not too late for others...

[JMon]

Damn! That IS a freaky little parameter. Every time I use it, the system seems to stall as if I just asked it to add up God, then it gives up freaky results. A(W) < .60 gives every game in the data base. A(W)<.40 gives one game on November 3 1995 played by the Bucks.

I was hoping it was the Super Parameter, but I guess it is just the Bogus Parameter...too late for me, I already laid money on the dreadful Pistons, but hopefully its not too late for others...

you can always buy out of it.

[Ronald S.]

NBA Best Bet

11/21/14 3:00 PM EST

Dallas -10 -105 vs LA Lakers (Bookmaker)

HF and ats streak >= 4 and -9.5 >= line >= -11.5
ATS: 96-49-1 (2.82, 66.2%) avg line: -10.3
HF and ats streak >= 4 and -9.5 >= line >= -11.5 and p:F and pp:F and ppp:F and pppp:F and season >= 2003
ATS: 27-10-0 (5.23, 73.0%) avg line: -10.4


Play the hot team that won the last 4+ games ATS as a 9.5 to 11.5 point favorite at home.

[Ronald S.]

Damn! That IS a freaky little parameter. Every time I use it, the system seems to stall as if I just asked it to add up God, then it gives up freaky results. A(W) < .60 gives every game in the data base. A(W)<.40 gives one game on November 3 1995 played by the Bucks.

I was hoping it was the Super Parameter, but I guess it is just the Bogus Parameter...too late for me, I already laid money on the dreadful Pistons, but hopefully its not too late for others...

0.5 is some kind of key number. Like you said, <0.4 gives 1 game, then <0.45 gives 2 games, then <0.49 gives 4 games, <0.495 gives 6 games, 0.499 gives 46 games, then the closer you get to 0.5, more and more games show up until you get 4601 games for <0.5. It's like an asymptote or something.

[lyon804]

@Jmon, lyon: Thanks, wish it would have worked out better though

Good easy win for Sacramento though.

It was a nice find. Sometimes the results do not cooperate!

[Consigliere]

NBA Best Bet

11-21-14 4:12 PM EST

Suns/76ers Under 209@-109 Pinny (Tailing the leader but a few queries pointing to this one)

total > 202 and pu margin <= -18 and WP <=25 and 2009 <=season

English: Take the Under in a game where the total line is above 202 and the previous over/under margin has been -18 or less under the line and the Winning Percentage of the team involved is below 25%. Only take games after the season 2009 and beyond into account.

[JMon]

geez everyone jumping on my query . I do like and playing, but I'll have to change things up a bit.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

11-21-14 - 3:21p CT

Play PHX -9.5 -110

SDQL:

H and total>200 and op:A and opp:A and season>=2004 and 10.5>=line>=7.5

H and total>200 and op:A and opp:A and oppp:A and season>=2004 and 10.5>=line>=7.5

team=Seventysixers and HD and o:site streak<=-2 and date>=20120301

SDQL English:

Since 2004, play against a home dog of 10.5 to 7.5, with a total of 200 or more against an oppt. playing their third or fourth consecutive game on the road. Not a fan playing against a winless team, especially with a high line at home, as they are hungry for a win...ie Raiders. But as we look at high total queries already posted above in this match up, as well as this one, they suggest a lop-sided affair where in most cases would go under the posted total. I would think if the 76er's cover, the total will go over as well. One would think too grab a home dog getting a high line when their oppt. is on a lengthly road trip.

[dmitean]

Thomas also pissed them off, by saying that a college team would beat the Sixers, so Sixers should come out swinging.
The only problem is that what Thomas said... good chances are that it's true

[JMon]

0.5 is some kind of key number. Like you said, <0.4 gives 1 game, then <0.45 gives 2 games, then <0.49 gives 4 games, <0.495 gives 6 games, 0.499 gives 46 games, then the closer you get to 0.5, more and more games show up until you get 4601 games for <0.5. It's like an asymptote or something.

I would like to figure this out, as we had this problem in MLB.

I would suggest A(W ) <= 0.500 is not predictive thus telling us how the game played out.

Whereas A(W @ team and season) <= 0.500 would be predictive.

[JMon]

Thomas also pissed them off, by saying that a college team would beat the Sixers, so Sixers should come out swinging.
The only problem is that what Thomas said... good chances are that it's true

I know...second guessed my self all day... I guess we will see what happens..

[dmitean]

I decide to just play the Under there, like the rest

If Sixers are focused, like they been the last 3 games, Suns won't get past 105 and if the "regular" Sixers show up, they won't score more then 95 points.
Either way, Under should hit

[pip2]

I would like to figure this out, as we had this problem in MLB.

I would suggest A(W ) <= 0.500 is not predictive thus telling us how the game played out.

Whereas A(W @ team and season) <= 0.500 would be predictive.

I'm curious to see how the results are treated if Detroit loses tonight -- will the query show 33-1 tomorrow, or somehow discard the game and show 33-0 again?

[SportsMind]

29-3 (14.75, 90.6%) 24-6-2 (5.28, 80.0%) avg line: -9.5 15-17-0 (1.03, 46.9%) avg total: 217.8

90-11 (12.72, 89.1%) 69-28-4 (3.67, 71.1%) avg line: -9.1 51-49-1 (0.99, 51.0%) avg total: 211.3

Just wanted to post a couple that work with some of the other queries today.

[SportsMind]

NBA Best Bet

11-21-14 3:50 PM MST

Suns -9.5 -105 (5Dimes)

SDQL:

AF and tA(points)>100 and tA(ooints>100) and oA(ooints)>100 and line<-7

English:

Good away teams that play high scoring games against a bad team that doesn't play defense.

[JMon]

I'm curious to see how the results are treated if Detroit loses tonight -- will the query show 33-1 tomorrow, or somehow discard the game and show 33-0 again?

probably 34-0

[Consigliere]

NBA Best Bet

11-21-14 3:50 PM MST

Suns -9.5 -105 (5Dimes)

SDQL:

AF and tA(points)>100 and tA(ooints>100) and oA(ooints)>100 and line<-7

English:

Good away teams that play high scoring games against a bad team that doesn't play defense.

I see this game a bit like Boston game just recently with philly. They will play hard and still get beat by a good margin and the efforts will result in under. Boston and phx are quite similar in their style of play. BOL to us. I like the card tonight but am on the other side of NO total

[GolfAddict]

NBA SDQL ‘BEST BET’ 2014-15

11/21/14 7:03 EST

Utah Jazz +12.5 (-110)
site=home and 3<=rest and line<-10 and line>-13 and 2011 <= season
ATS:7-12-0 (-1.18, 36.8%)

team=Warriors and site=home and 3<=rest and 2013 <= season

ATS: 1-4-0 (-10.60, 20.0%).

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in Home games playing on 3 or more days rest over the last two seasons

[Mako-SBR]

On Phoenix as well today, and that's coming from a guy who had a small ML bet on the Raiders last night...they all have to win outright at some point.

Hopefully that "some point" for the 76ers is against the Knicks tomorrow!

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

11-21-14 - play may be pending!

pip2 - NO UN 213.5 (1.05 to win 1)

nash13 - PHX UN 209 (1.03 to win 1)

Ronald S. - DAL -10 (1.05 to win 1)

Consigliere - PHX UN 209 (1.09 to win 1)

JMon - PHX -9.5 (-1.1 to win 1)

Sportsmind - PHX -9.5 (1.05 to win 1)

GolfAddict - UT +12.5 (1.1 to win 1)

bol miners...please let me know of any errors.

[teecee]

Why are the links edited out of posts?

[JMon]

Why are the links edited out of posts?

Not sure what you talking about? We don't post links here.

[teecee]

Check out the first page. Just wondering why they were edited for links. Is that against the rules?

[Consigliere]

The spreadsheet is putting out a lot of pics and they are hitting! Same with the spitballs!

[pip2]

Results

1-0: dal covers vs lal from ronald -- ATS: 96-48-1 (2.88, 66.7%)
H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5

2-0: orl and bkn cover vs cha and okc From J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

0-1: phi/phx under FROM HYAHYA O/U:34-59-2 (-4.02, 36.6%)
H and total >= 200 and tS(ou margin < -11,N=2) = 2 and game number < 30

0-1: det covers vs atl From jh3 ATS: 33-0-0 (13.48, 100.0%)
AD and A(W) <= 0.500 and p:L and pp:L and op:L and opp:L and oA(W) >= 0.500 and season >= 2005

0-1: phi/phx under From rcg O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps < -11 and op:dpa < -11 and rest <= 1 and o:rest <= 1

1-0: bkn covers vs okc From jmon ATS: 24-8-2 (6.57, 75.0%) p:L and op:L and A and rest>=1 and 0<=line<=3 and P:margin >= 5 and 2010 <= season and 3 > o:rest > 0

0-2: phi/phx and lal/dal under From jmon O/U: 9-32-0 (-8.16, 22.0%)
total > 202 and pu margin <= -18 and WP <=25 and 2009 <=season

0-1: no/den under from me dinking around unsuccessfully with sac/chi game O/U:45-80-4 (-2.66, 36.0%)
A and tA(assists) > oA(assists) and tA(rebounds) < oA(rebounds) and tA(FTA) < oA(FTA) and tA(blocks) > oA(blocks) and tA(FGP) > oA(FGP) and tA(TPP) > oA(TPP) and tA(TO) < oA(TO) and o:rest!=2 and season > 2006 and (194 > total or total > 198)

Total 4-6

[dmitean]

I know...second guessed my self all day... I guess we will see what happens..

You were right to trust your query and your instinct

[pip2]

probably 34-0

Well I guess that's how that query got to be 33-0; there is something built into the Freak Parameter that automatically excludes games that have been lost. So now if you run the query it is back to 33-0 again, with no mention of the Detroit game last night...

[JMon]

Well I guess that's how that query got to be 33-0; there is something built into the Freak Parameter that automatically excludes games that have been lost. So now if you run the query it is back to 33-0 again, with no mention of the Detroit game last night...

ya, that is what happened in MLB

[pip2]

Spitball Queries

wsh covers vs mil from consigliere -- ATS:53-30-3 (1.44, 63.9%)
o:rest + op:rest + opp:rest < 2 and AF and playoffs = 0 and season >=2009

ny covers vs phi From mako ATS: 58-33-1 (2.23, 63.7%)
F and p:AL and p:margin <=-8 and WP >=o:WP and line <=-10.5 and game number <=68 and total>=187 and total <=212 and season >=2006

wsh covers vs mil From me ATS:60-96-5 (-1.44, 38.5%)
Minimum(date@team and season,N=3) >= date - 4 and season > 2008 and 1.5< line <7.5

tor/cle UNDER FROM HYAHYA O/U:34-59-2 (-4.02, 36.6%)
H and total >=200 and tS(ou margin <-11,N=2)=2 and game number <30

[JMon]

Overall Group Record - 31-24-1 56.3% (+4.68)

Yesterday's recap 3-4 (-1.27) - tough losses from pip2 and GolfAddict both losing by .5

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 4-4 (+.40)

2. pip2 - 3-3 (-.15)

3. nash13 - 5-2 (+2.97)

4. Ronald S. - 5-3 (+1.90)

5. hyahya - 3-3 (-.35)

6. Mako-SBR - 2-4 (-2.40)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 4-2-1 (+1.86)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-1 (-.10)

[JMon]

Check out the first page. Just wondering why they were edited for links. Is that against the rules?

Yes, that was before we didn't know links could not be posted. So yes, they are against the rules.