NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[GolfAddict]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-24-147:00PM EST

Suns/RaptorsOver 210 (-110)

team = Suns and D and rest < 2 and p:margin >= 10 and p:BAP < 50 and season >= 2004

O/U: 12-0-0 (19.08, 100.0%)avg total: 211.3

[Alex Vaile]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-24-147:00PM EST

Suns/RaptorsOver 210 (-110)

team = Suns and D and rest < 2 and p:margin >= 10 and p:BAP < 50 and season >= 2004

O/U: 12-0-0 (19.08, 100.0%)avg total: 211.3

This looks like Dr. M'S QOD. He has been pretty hot. Won with Memphis yesterday.

[pip2]

Spitball Query Results

1-1: hou/ny and phi/por UNDER from rcgriffin O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps < -11 and op:dpa < -11 and rest <=1 and o:rest <=1

1-0: ny covers vs hou From JR ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o:ats streak <3

1-0: ny covers vs hou From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2003 and on:H and 8 <= game number <= 63 and day!=Sunday and day!=Thursday

1-0: phi covers vs por From Tom ATS: 142-74-3 (2.96, 65.7%)
H and (line > 10 or line < -15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line <= 15

0-1: phi/por UNDER From jmon O/U: 9-32-0 (-8.16, 22.0%)
total > 202 and pu margin <= -18 and WP <=25 and 2009 <=season

1-0: lac covers vs cha from consigliere -- ATS: 304-215-11 (0.57, 58.6%)
AF and p:AL and p:ats margin < 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2006

1-0: lac covers vs cha pip --ATS:93-142-3 (-2.11, 39.6%)
season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest=0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60

Total: 6-2

[Mako-SBR]

Total: 6-2

What is that, the sixth winning day in a row with a high number of daily picks? Amazing...no one outside this thread else is even close, great job all.

[JMon]

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Yesterday's recap 6-2 (+3.80) - Clips cover in a big way , Ronald bounces back with his query on TOR un- where GolfAddict loses the over, hyahya covers with the 76er's with a high line. Jmon loses with the Bulls by one- Thanks Gasol for missing your second FT with 3 seconds left in the game.

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 5-5 (+.30)

2. pip2 - 6-3 (+2.85)

3. nash13 - 6-2 (+3.97)

4. Ronald S. - 6-4 (+1.85)

5. hyahya - 5-3 (+1.65)

6. Mako-SBR - 4-5 (-1.50)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-2-1 (+4.86)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-2 (-1.20)

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[Consigliere]

Spreadsheet 3-2 ats and 2-2 on totals last night on the unique picks. 5 days in a row putting up positive units. 63-41 last 15 days.

[pip2]

what is that, the sixth winning day in a row with a high number of daily picks? Amazing...no one outside this thread else is even close, great job all.

Not sure how accurate the counting is, but it looks something like this:

11/24/2014........ 6...... 2
11/23/2014........ 3...... 1
11/22/2014........ 17.... 5...... 1
11/21/2014.........4.......6
11/20/2014........ 2.......0
11/19/2014........ 11.... 10.... 2
11/18/2014........ 2.......1
11/17/2014
11/16/2014
11/15/2014........ 5...... 2
11/14/2014 ........7...... 2
11/13/2014........ 1...... 1
11/12/2014.........6.......1
....................... 64.... 31.....3


It got to be kind of a daily slap in the face for me, and the last straw was when the spitball query results went 17-5-1 Saturday night. My personal bets that night went 3-3 (the 3 wins being the heavily query-favored games which I only bet once).

Now what I have decided to do is to bet like the count for the spitball query results. If there are three distinct, reasonable queries pointing to the same result on the same game, then I bet 3 units with them. If there are 2 queries on a team to cover, and another query on that team to lose ATS, I bet 2-1=1 unit on the team.

Too early to say if it works, but last night I finally had results on a par with the spitball query results...

[nash13]

Nothing special tonight, more on NHL.

[Ronald S.]

Just a note to those following the Best Bet tracking. I will be on the road Wed, Thurs for the holidays, but should be able to track. In case I don't I will calculate on Friday.

In the future, I would like to know if anyone would be willing to help track in case I'm away for an extended period of time????

Sure I can help track just let me know when!

[Ronald S.]

I knew the Bulls line would go down. Wanted to get them in as my best bet at +4 but was busy earlier

[hyahya]

I like U203.5 in SAC/NO tonight as my best bet but don't have the query with me as I'm at work.

[Mako-SBR]

Not sure how accurate the counting is, but it looks something like this:

....................... 64.... 31.....3

It got to be kind of a daily slap in the face for me, and the last straw was when the spitball query results went 17-5-1 Saturday night. My personal bets that night went 3-3 (the 3 wins being the heavily query-favored games which I only bet once).

Now what I have decided to do is to bet like the count for the spitball query results. If there are three distinct, reasonable queries pointing to the same result on the same game, then I bet 3 units with them. If there are 2 queries on a team to cover, and another query on that team to lose ATS, I bet 2-1=1 unit on the team.

Too early to say if it works, but last night I finally had results on a par with the spitball query results...

Thanks pip, very impressive to say the least, will be interesting to see how your strategy goes on consensus picks, love it.

No Best Bet from me today, those who do play BOL!

[JMon]

Sure I can help track just let me know when!

thanks, Ronald. I'll let you know whenever I'm in need of help. Thanks again.

[Ronald S.]

NBA Best Bet

11/25/14 3:00 PM EST

Chicago ML +125 (@Denver) (5dimes)

52-34 (0.17, 60.5%) 59-27-0 (2.55, 68.6%) avg line: 2.4

Well I messed up again lol. Line moved again so I will just go with Bulls ML. As far as the query, it's the same one I've used a lot recently. Just play on the short road dog on a b2b in November. Even better when their previous game was an away game.

[Ronald S.]

thanks, Ronald. I'll let you know whenever I'm in need of help. Thanks again.

[Consigliere]

I've added the CUSUM data (LT,MT, ST) and my comments on the trends into the spreadsheet. That should cover that piece off, sharing the charts will be another story. The spreadsheet has 2 active trends today, NBA67 and NBA103. 1 ATS and 1 TOTAL on the NO/SAC game.

[Consigliere]

Not sure how accurate the counting is, but it looks something like this:

11/24/2014........ 6...... 2
11/23/2014........ 3...... 1
11/22/2014........ 17.... 5...... 1
11/21/2014.........4.......6
11/20/2014........ 2.......0
11/19/2014........ 11.... 10.... 2
11/18/2014........ 2.......1
11/17/2014
11/16/2014
11/15/2014........ 5...... 2
11/14/2014 ........7...... 2
11/13/2014........ 1...... 1
11/12/2014.........6.......1
....................... 64.... 31.....3


It got to be kind of a daily slap in the face for me, and the last straw was when the spitball query results went 17-5-1 Saturday night. My personal bets that night went 3-3 (the 3 wins being the heavily query-favored games which I only bet once).

Now what I have decided to do is to bet like the count for the spitball query results. If there are three distinct, reasonable queries pointing to the same result on the same game, then I bet 3 units with them. If there are 2 queries on a team to cover, and another query on that team to lose ATS, I bet 2-1=1 unit on the team.

Too early to say if it works, but last night I finally had results on a par with the spitball query results...

Great work pip. I've been trying to cross reference the "Spitball Queries" with the spreadsheet and it seems like there a few queries you are posting that are not on the spreadsheet and vice versa....do you have a copy of all of these that you could put into a new tab on the spreadsheet...I can go through and cross reference everything and then come up with a single "MASTER" list that everyone can have and use as reference....want to make sure we are capturing all the trends we can.

[Consigliere]

No BB for me today. Like the Sac trend to cover but not good enough to put up as a BB today. There will be a big slate to pick from tomorrow.

[JMon]

NBA Best Bet

11/25/14 - 3:30p CT

Play - GS -7.5 -110 lost track of the line, busy at work..still going roll with them.

SDQL

H and 12.5 >= line >= 2.5 and p:HW and p:margin <= 3 and (month != 12 and month!=1)

SDQL English:

Fade a home dog between 2.5 and 12.5 coming off a home close home win - note seems to work well in the Month of November!

[GolfAddict]

NBA BEST BET



11/25/14 7:33 PM EST


Parlay: Bucks ML & Pelicans ML (+120)


Milwaukee Bucks ML
HF and ats streak <= -2 and o:ats streak <= -1 and rest >=2 and o:rest >= 3 and season >= 2000
SU:28-9 (8.59, 75.7%)

New Orleans Pelicans ML
HF and ats streak >= 1 and o:ats streak >=2 and rest >=2 and o:rest >= 2 and season >= 2000
SU:85-36 (5.57, 70.2%)

The Home Favorite wins more than 70% of the time when both teams have 2 or more days rest and the opponent is on a longer winning streak(New Orleans). The Home Favorite wins more than 75% of the time when coming into the game on a losing streak of two or more games and both teams are on at least 2 days rest (Bucks).

[pip2]

Great work pip. I've been trying to cross reference the "Spitball Queries" with the spreadsheet and it seems like there a few queries you are posting that are not on the spreadsheet and vice versa....do you have a copy of all of these that you could put into a new tab on the spreadsheet...I can go through and cross reference everything and then come up with a single "MASTER" list that everyone can have and use as reference....want to make sure we are capturing all the trends we can.

Consig, about 90 or 95% of my queries come from this thread, and the rest come from Google groups (unless I get time to write one or two. Every week or so I peek into the spreadsheet and see Nash has added a query or two that I have posted, so I kind of assumed he is taking care of the onesies and twosies I have that aren't already documented in the common spreadsheet, as I post them...is that not so?

[nash13]

I try my best to cover every new query I see, but it is hard to keep track with the awesome work and output round here. If this continues we will have 200 queries by the end of the season, after that it will be picking the good ones and calculating value.
this works much better than i would ever thought of before. so as long there is a solid groundwork, i will do my best to cover.

[Consigliere]

Consig, about 90 or 95% of my queries come from this thread, and the rest come from Google groups (unless I get time to write one or two. Every week or so I peek into the spreadsheet and see Nash has added a query or two that I have posted, so I kind of assumed he is taking care of the onesies and twosies I have that aren't already documented in the common spreadsheet, as I post them...is that not so?

Yeah but there are some that are missed. Once we get everything square the
Updating is easier. If you have them documented and easy to share might as well.

[pip2]

Yeah but there are some that are missed. Once we get everything square the
Updating is easier. If you have them documented and easy to share might as well.

Actually, that's kind of the problem. I have them laid out so it's easy to see when they have found a game, but I don't have them set up in a nice bunch that I can just copy and paste without a bit of hassle.

[Ronald S.]

I knew the Bulls line would go down. Wanted to get them in as my best bet at +4 but was busy earlier

Well this could not have worked out any worse for me tonight. Not only did I get the worst number on the Bulls, but the line moved back and closed at Bulls +4.5 so they actually wouldn't fall under the query in my best bet. Sure enough, the database has the line at Bulls +4. 3.5 really looks like the cutoff for when the trend is most effective. When the line is exactly 4, the away dog is only 18-15 ATS (soon to be 18-16) and not so good straight up either (14-20 soon to be 14-21). I need to be more careful with picks that are line dependent in the future, especially when the market shows uncertainty and the line fluctuates as was the case here. Live and learn I guess!

[Ronald S.]

Lol the Bulls just went on a little run as I was typing that. They may cover yet but still probably won't win.

...And they lose by 5 lol!!

[JMon]

Well this could not have worked out any worse for me tonight. Not only did I get the worst number on the Bulls, but the line moved back and closed at Bulls +4.5 so they actually wouldn't fall under the query in my best bet. Sure enough, the database has the line at Bulls +4. 3.5 really looks like the cutoff for when the trend is most effective. When the line is exactly 4, the away dog is only 18-15 ATS (soon to be 18-16) and not so good straight up either (14-20 soon to be 14-21). I need to be more careful with picks that are line dependent in the future, especially when the market shows uncertainty and the line fluctuates as was the case here. Live and learn I guess!

It's happened to me a time or two..crazy line movement from 4 to 2.5 to 4.5...yikes

[JMon]

Overall Group Record - 44-30-1 59.4% (+12.33) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 1-2 (-1.00) -

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 6-5 (+1.30)

2. pip2 - 6-3 (+2.85)

3. nash13 - 6-2 (+3.97)

4. Ronald S. - 6-5 (+.85)

5. hyahya - 5-3 (+1.65)

6. Mako-SBR - 4-5 (-1.50)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-2-1 (+4.86)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-3 (-2.20)

[nash13]

If everything goes well, this could be a huge day for SDQL.

[nash13]

I added some CFL queries to the sheet. I found them via the Google Group. Great contributor there.

[Consigliere]

Actually, that's kind of the problem. I have them laid out so it's easy to see when they have found a game, but I don't have them set up in a nice bunch that I can just copy and paste without a bit of hassle.

Ok no worries.

[Consigliere]

Spreadsheet 2-0 with 1 ats win and one under win. Up to 65-41 and 6 winning days in a row. There should be 7 or 8 plays at least today when I get a chance to run all 120 queries.

[pip2]

Here is what I have so far. Sometimes some little elf somewhere changes the lines, or inputs more data into the database, and plays can sink out of sight or pop up out of the blue. I'm hoping it isn't so early in the morning that the elf will do something later to cause a lot more plays to spring up...

Also, please keep in mind that I don't post the NBAxxx queries (per se) because I respect the proprietors' desires to reserve those for contributors only. However, if I have obtained a query through this thread or google groups, I will post it, though it might also be an NBAxxx query.

Also again, since I am now actually betting more in line with these spitball queries, I am taking a closer look for duplicates and derivatives, because I don't want to be betting multiple units on 4 queries that are all basically the same query with a twist here or a twist there. So I am trying to be more careful to try to weed out dupes before posting them.

atl/tor UNDER From b1slickguy O/U: 18-50-1 (-4.38, 26.5)
210>total>199.5 and 60>=WP>=51 and Sum(ou margin@team and season, N=5) >=36 and season>2007 and playoffs=0 and H

dal/ny OVER from hyahyah O/U:46-19-2 (5.29, 70.8%)
conference != o:conference and p:LF and p:margin < -9 and season > 2010 and site=home and playoffs=0

phx/den OVER from funfreaker O/U:183-117-3 (4.66, 61.0%)
tA(FGA) > 84.3 and otA(FGA) > 84.4 and H and tA(turnovers) + otA(turnovers)<=30.5

sa/ind UNDER from ronald -- O/U:20-43-3 (-4.26, 31.7%)
H and ats streak >= 4 and p:line <= -10 and season >= 2005

sa/ind and okc/ut OVER "From Nash O/U: 103-60-0 (3.35, 63.2%)
p:defensive rebounds + poffensive rebounds > 52 and H and p:fouls <26 and season > 2011

phx covers vs den From pip ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

bkn covers vs phi from nash ATS:290-224-8 (0.44, 56.4%)
A and F and p:A and p:L and total >= 198

mil covers vs mn zeeman21 ATS: 308-228-9 (0.71, 57.5%)
site=away and line < 0 and 0 < p:margin and p:streak <= -2 and 19951030 <= date

mil covers vs mn From Jmon ATS: 36-9-1 (3.43, 80.0%)
AF and line >= -9 and p:margin >= 10 and p:division=po:division and op:HL and op:margin <= -10 and 1996 <= season

lac covers vs det Pip --ATS:93-142-3 (-2.11, 39.6%)
season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest=0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/26/14 8:30am Reduced Basketball 724 Phoenix Suns -7½ -105* vs Denver Nuggets

SDQL:

pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

SDQL: English

Since 2008, play against a team that went 10 points or more over the total in their last game, which took place the day before, if the team has lost to the opponent in their previous meeting.

[Alex Vaile]

NBA Best Bet

11/25/14 - 3:30p CT

Play - GS -7.5 -110 lost track of the line, busy at work..still going roll with them.

SDQL

H and 12.5 >= line >= 2.5 and p:HW and p:margin <= 3 and (month != 12 and month!=1)

SDQL English:

Fade a home dog between 2.5 and 12.5 coming off a home close home win - note seems to work well in the Month of November!

Nice hit JMon I rode with you on it.