NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**dmitean** · 11-28-14, 03:35 PM

You maybe right, but it's not just Dwight. It's Beverley, Rockets best defender and Jones - that's three of the starters.
But my main point was that the injuries are the cause for the line and therefore, I'm curious, should we be looking at result of a query that are a bit false, since it's not a usual spot for such a trend.

To take it to the extreme, should we be looking at queries, that regard Thunder as below 50% win percentage kind of a team, once they get RW and KD back? Suddenly they become from one of 3 - 4 weakest teams in the league to a contender.

**pip2** · 11-28-14, 03:52 PM

Great point. The more I see the results of these queries, the more fragile they seem. It's like they are telling us what is going to happen if everything kind of goes the way it normally would go. But if the slightest thing happens to throw the situation out of the norm, then the normal statistics don't apply to the game any more. It's like, if you even just told the players before the game that such-and-such is going to be the likely result of the game, that would be enough of a disturbance to cause that result not to happen...

**JMon** · 11-28-14, 04:56 PM

Best Best

11-28-14 - 3:43p CT

Play Pelicans ML +120

SDQL:

p:L and op:L and A and rest>=1 and 0<=line<=3 and P:margin>=5 and 2010<=season and 3>o:rest>0

English

Play road team who won the prev matchup by 5 or more, as a small dog, where both teams are off a loss and on rest.

**Cutler'sThumb** · 11-28-14, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Great point. The more I see the results of these queries, the more fragile they seem. It's like they are telling us what is going to happen if everything kind of goes the way it normally would go. But if the slightest thing happens to throw the situation out of the norm, then the normal statistics don't apply to the game any more. It's like, if you even just told the players before the game that such-and-such is going to be the likely result of the game, that would be enough of a disturbance to cause that result not to happen...

I think this is why we want to see queries with a larger (150+?) sample size. Theoretically this will average out the anomaly type situations and we will see a more consistent bell curve. It's great that we have such a large # of trends to tap into. There are always going to be unique elements to any game, but we just want to keep leveraging our understanding of what "usually" happens. There will be lumps along the way, but the results so far are hard to argue with.

**pip2** · 11-28-14, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

I think this is why we want to see queries with a larger (150+?) sample size. Theoretically this will average out the anomaly type situations and we will see a more consistent bell curve. It's great that we have such a large # of trends to tap into. There are always going to be unique elements to any game, but we just want to keep leveraging our understanding of what "usually" happens. There will be lumps along the way, but the results so far are hard to argue with.

Yep, and I just found a big-ass sample size query favoring the Clippers, so I should probably get a big lump on my bet of the day, now that you mention it!

**Cutler'sThumb** · 11-28-14, 06:18 PM

Looks like Nash is off today. I'm working up the plays on the spreadsheet. Missed a winner with the Bulls earlier. Got the Clippers so far. They're on a 56% trend that has almost 1200 plays behind it. Hopefully there will be enough time to sift thru the rest...

**JMon** · 11-28-14, 06:24 PM

Cutler do you want a seat on the best bet?

**JMon** · 11-28-14, 06:27 PM

How's everyone doing in NBA so far? I'm currently hitting 63% on 80 plays using nothing but sdql. All documented

**pip2** · 11-28-14, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

Looks like Nash is off today. I'm working up the plays on the spreadsheet. Missed a winner with the Bulls earlier. Got the Clippers so far. They're on a 56% trend that has almost 1200 plays behind it. Hopefully there will be enough time to sift thru the rest...

Yep, that sounds like the big-ass sample size I was talking about...you know the 55 or 56% doesn't sound so impressive, but when you get that big sample size behind it, it kind of just rolls over everything in its path...

**nash13** · 11-28-14, 06:38 PM

hi guys, been busy this weekend, monitoring the groups and trends as good as i can. here is what showed up.

MLB TRENDS:

NBA TRENDS:
Clippers vs Rockets | [1] Trends: NBA03
Bulls vs Celtics | [3] Trends: NBA06 NBA26 NBA56
Trailblazers vs Grizzlies | [3] Trends: NBA16 NBA33 NBA92
Kings vs Spurs | [1] Trends: NBA30
Hawks vs Pelicans | [3] Trends: NBA45 NBA53 NBA111
Nuggets vs Suns | [1] Trends: NBA68
Magic vs Pacers | [1] Trends: NBA76
Timberwolves vs Lakers | [1] Trends: NBA76
Warriors vs Hornets | [2] Trends: NBA126 NBA127

NFL TRENDS:

NHL TRENDS:
Canucks vs Blue Jackets | [6] Trends: NHL02 NHL03 NHL06 NHL07 NHL27 NHL54
Red Wings vs Devils | [1] Trends: NHL03
Wild vs Stars | [5] Trends: NHL04 NHL05 NHL09 NHL11 NHL74
Sabres vs Canadiens | [5] Trends: NHL06 NHL39 NHL39 NHL49 NHL49
Islanders vs Capitals | [5] Trends: NHL09 NHL14 NHL28 NHL32 NHL74
Hurricanes vs Penguins | [4] Trends: NHL16 NHL18 NHL52 NHL61
Blackhawks vs Ducks | [2] Trends: NHL17 NHL34
Jets vs Bruins | [2] Trends: NHL17 NHL46
Flyers vs Rangers | [1] Trends: NHL71
Oilers vs Blues | [1] Trends: NHL75

NCAAFB TRENDS:
AKRON vs KEST | [2] Trends: NCAAF09 NCAAF10

NCAAB TRENDS:

**pip2** · 11-28-14, 06:51 PM

Well if you merge the big-ass sample size query with my bet of day query, you get results showing a 67% chance of winning with my bet of the day query. Unfortunately, the sample size is 3...

**Mako-SBR** · 11-28-14, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by JMon

How's everyone doing in NBA so far? I'm currently hitting 63% on 80 plays using nothing but sdql. All documented

That is a good question, let's check...behind you J, 55 plays at 60.0%.

Thank god for the NBA, currently bailing me out of a losing 46% NFL season.

**Mako-SBR** · 11-28-14, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Well if you merge the big-ass sample size query with my bet of day query, you get results showing a 67% chance of winning with my bet of the day query. Unfortunately, the sample size is 3...

lol pip, nice nice.

**Mako-SBR** · 11-28-14, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Great point. The more I see the results of these queries, the more fragile they seem. It's like they are telling us what is going to happen if everything kind of goes the way it normally would go. But if the slightest thing happens to throw the situation out of the norm, then the normal statistics don't apply to the game any more. It's like, if you even just told the players before the game that such-and-such is going to be the likely result of the game, that would be enough of a disturbance to cause that result not to happen...

This is true, but I swear I am so sloppy with them that the only checks I do to the dailies on the sheet are how they perform in/out of the division, the current month, and usually adjusting the line/total to the actual game. I don't even check the injury sheet or much of anything else and just pull the trigger...and even with that ham-fisted approach I've stayed at/above 60% ATS for the last 200+ plays.

SDQL is just amazing if you tweak the query just right, get it dialed in, have never been anywhere near that level on my own.

And dmi, keep up the write-ups, I actually enjoy them.

**pip2** · 11-29-14, 12:42 AM

Spitball Query Results 11/28/14

0-1: orl covers vs ind From J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

1-0: atl/no UNDER From b1slickguy O/U: 18-50-1 (-4.38, 26.5)
210 > total > 199.5 and 60 >=WP >= 51 and Sum(ou margin@team and season, N=5) >= 36 and season > 2007 and playoffs =0 and H

1-0: sac covers vs sa From mako ATS: 105-51-3 (3.22, 67.3%)
AD and p:AL and p:margin <= -13 and tA(points)>=100 and o:WP >= 60 and o:rest > 0

1-0: mem covers vs por from hyahya ATS:17-51-0 (-4.96, 25.0%)
H and line > -6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season >= 2011

0-1: no covers vs atl From jmon ATS: 24-8-2 (6.57, 75.0%)
p:L and op:L and A and rest >= 1 and 0 <= line <= 3 and P:margin >= 5 and 2010 <= season and 3 > o:rest > 0

Total 3-2

**nash13** · 11-29-14, 06:11 AM

Made some adjustments to the sheet. Cuttler is so nice trying to add unique NHL Plays in its own tab. NBA plays separated from others for better tracking. Added CFL Queries from Google Group. Added a column where you can see if it is a Tailing or Fading Trend, it's better to analyze the origin of the trend when you know on which side it's focus is.

8 categories
SU Back
SU Fade
ATS Back
ATS Fade
RL Back
RL Fade
Over
Under

**nash13** · 11-29-14, 06:14 AM

As far as right tracking goes NBA is 141-92 this year.

**fataliz** · 11-29-14, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by pip2

0-1: orl covers vs ind From J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

1-0: atl/no UNDER From b1slickguy O/U: 18-50-1 (-4.38, 26.5)
210 > total > 199.5 and 60 >=WP >= 51 and Sum(ou margin@team and season, N=5) >= 36 and season > 2007 and playoffs =0 and H

1-0: sac covers vs sa From mako ATS: 105-51-3 (3.22, 67.3%)
AD and p:AL and p:margin <= -13 and tA(points)>=100 and o:WP >= 60 and o:rest > 0

1-0: mem covers vs por from hyahya ATS:17-51-0 (-4.96, 25.0%)
H and line > -6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season >= 2011

0-1: no covers vs atl From jmon ATS: 24-8-2 (6.57, 75.0%)
p:L and op:L and A and rest >= 1 and 0 <= line <= 3 and P:margin >= 5 and 2010 <= season and 3 > o:rest > 0

Total 3-2

thank you so much pips2. by any chance you have a list of all the queries you use? so we can help see if you missed out any since its so much to run through. cheers

**JMon** · 11-29-14, 09:50 AM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 46-37-1 55.4% (+6.65) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 0-3 (-3.16) - Yikes, lets get em back boys!

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 6-7 (-.80)

2. pip2 - 7-4 (+2.79)

3. nash13 - 6-3 (+2.87)

4. Ronald S. - 6-6 (-.45)

5. hyahya - 5-3 (+1.65)

6. Mako-SBR - 5-6 (-1.60)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-3-1 (+3.84)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-3 (-2.20

**JMon** · 11-29-14, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by fataliz

thank you so much pips2. by any chance you have a list of all the queries you use? so we can help see if you missed out any since its so much to run through. cheers

There is a complete list completed by Nash13 and contributed by many here. If you want to be a contributor and share/submit your own queries for the cause you can have access to it. Cheers!

**pip2** · 11-29-14, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by fataliz

thank you so much pips2. by any chance you have a list of all the queries you use? so we can help see if you missed out any since its so much to run through. cheers

They're all here in this thread fatal! Just read through the thread and pick them out! You can also get a couple over at the google groups, though some of them are so old that even though they appear to hit high percentages with really large sample sizes, they haven't really picked any winners since about 5 or 6 years ago...

I think I have them laid out in a way that I can see right off the bat when they are active, but for some reason the Chicago game queries didn't show up for me until the game was already over/ I am wondering if the little elf who enters the data from the games played the day before was hung over or something and got around to it a little bit later than usual...

**JMon** · 11-29-14, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by pip2

They're all here in this thread fatal! Just read through the thread and pick them out! You can also get a couple over at the google groups, though some of them are so old that even though they appear to hit high percentages with really large sample sizes, they haven't really picked any winners since about 5 or 6 years ago...

I think I have them laid out in a way that I can see right off the bat when they are active, but for some reason the Chicago game queries didn't show up for me until the game was already over/ I am wondering if the little elf who enters the data from the games played the day before was hung over or something and got around to it a little bit later than usual...

LOL

**pip2** · 11-29-14, 10:40 AM

Actually, I'm thinking it's probably time to stop posting the spitball queries. When I started posting them, it was the beginning of the season, and they were losing as often as they were winning. I wanted to get a more definitive numbers as far as how much they were losing and how much they were winning. Now as the season has come into full swing, it seems pretty definite that these things win.

So people who see the value of the queries have 2 options -- read through the thread and pick out the queries they think will win, or contribute to the thread and ask nash to let them into the secret vault, where most of the queries are stored.

**nash13** · 11-29-14, 11:00 AM

yes in some way i think there are a lot of people reading silently, it would be nice to have a larger group contributing, researching etc. i think it would be a bit unfair to pip2, JMon and others topresent their work on a plate to others.

**Alex Vaile** · 11-29-14, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by nash13

yes in some way i think there are a lot of people reading silently, it would be nice to have a larger group contributing, researching etc. i think it would be a bit unfair to pip2, JMon and others topresent their work on a plate to others.

Hey all I've been following the thread for a while and I'd like to get involved. I have a few queries that can b helpful. How can I gain access to the vault? I contributed daily to the MLB thread and was up 17 units on the season. You guys are doing great work in here.

**nash13** · 11-29-14, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Hey all I've been following the thread for a while and I'd like to get involved. I have a few queries that can b helpful. How can I gain access to the vault? I contributed daily to the MLB thread and was up 17 units on the season. You guys are doing great work in here.

i will write you a personal message. i know your awesome work from last year. maybe you will find some of yours in the spreadsheet. all help is welcome.

**Alex Vaile** · 11-29-14, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by nash13

i will write you a personal message. i know your awesome work from last year. maybe you will find some of yours in the spreadsheet. all help is welcome.

Sounds good thanks Nash.

**JMon** · 11-29-14, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Sounds good thanks Nash.

Alex...you may have missed my post...but do you want to be part of the Best Bet?

**nash13** · 11-29-14, 11:54 AM

PM sent

**Alex Vaile** · 11-29-14, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Alex...you may have missed my post...but do you want to be part of the Best Bet?

Hey JMon thanks. I've been pretty busy with work and I'm still learning about NBA SDQL but sure why not. I'll see what I can do.

**JMon** · 11-29-14, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Hey JMon thanks. I've been pretty busy with work and I'm still learning about NBA SDQL but sure why not. I'll see what I can do.

Ok you're in...just keep in mind you do not have to place a bet everyday. Also please follow the official best bet post...as shown below.

**JMon** · 11-29-14, 02:06 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet" 2014-15

11-29-14 - 11:31a CT

Play - Wizards -4.5 -110

SDQL: -9.5<=line<=-4 and 102>=tA(points)>=98 and 102>=oA(o

oints)>=98 and p:margin<=-20

English: Play on favorites from 4 to 9.5, a good offense against a poor offense; after a big loss by 20 more.

**Mako-SBR** · 11-29-14, 02:25 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet" 2014-15

11-29-14 - 11:30a PST

Play: DAL (-12.5) PHI -110

SDQL:
A and tA(points)>=102 and oA(o

oints)>=104 and p:W and p

oints>=100 and pp

oints>=100 and ppp

oints>=100 and game number>=15 and season>=2006

English:
Simple one, good offensive team on a roll against a bad defensive team who gives up a lot of points.

Notes:
Ultimate trap game here as the P: matchup between these two was a 50+ point beatdown by Dallas, combined with a conflicting query pointing to the winless 76ers covering. Still playing it though simply because it did so well for us last season.

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Hey all I've been following the thread for a while and I'd like to get involved. I have a few queries that can b helpful. How can I gain access to the vault? I contributed daily to the MLB thread and was up 17 units on the season. You guys are doing great work in here.

Nice Alex, that's awesome, was hoping you'd jump in!

Hard to believe that the DB is at 141-92 this season for the NBA already, just amazing so far...and thanks to Cutler for separating the plays by sport, very handy.

**hyahya** · 11-29-14, 02:58 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet" 2014-15

11-29-14 - 11:53a PST

Play LAC/UTH under 201.5 (-110)

205>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

For a total between 190 and 205, play under when two teams that are heading in different directions face off.

**pip2** · 11-29-14, 03:30 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/29/14 7=12:15pm pst Reduced Basketball 504 Philadelphia 76ers +12½ -108* vs Dallas Mavericks

SDQL:

H and (line>10 or line<-15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line<=15

SDQL: English

Team is at home as either a big dog or huge favorite, they lost their last game (phi always fits into that category), they're rested but not too rested and in their previous game they were more highly favored than a huge dog.

Not wise for the student to branch too far off from the master, but in this case, I had already picked this query out (I like the sample size) and it has been the only one I have found so far that seems viable. And Dallas is flying in from Toronto last night all happy and content because they beat tor, and they should be sleep deprived, a bit heavy-feeling from last night, and not terribly afraid of the fearsome phi team...I think this goes over as well..