NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/22/14 6:00am pst Reduced Basketball 715 Washington Wizards -3 -108* vs Milwaukee Bucks

SDQL:

Minimum(date@team and season,N=3) >= date - 4 and season > 2008 and 1.5< line <7.5

SDQL: English
Since 2009, team playing 4th game in 5 nights with a line between 1.5 and 7.5, tends to lose ATS

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-22-14 - 8:10a CT

Play PHX -1.5 -110

SDQL:

A and 3>=line>=-3 and tA(points)>=102 and 98>=oA(ooints)>=92 and p:margin>20

SDQL English:

Riding with the hot Suns team off a win of more than 20, playing on the road with a short line - good offensive team playing against a par defensive team.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/22/14 6:00am pst Reduced Basketball 715 Washington Wizards -3 -108* vs Milwaukee Bucks

SDQL:

Minimum(date@team and season,N=3) >= date - 4 and season > 2008 and 1.5< line <7.5

SDQL: English
Since 2009, team playing 4th game in 5 nights with a line between 1.5 and 7.5, tends to lose ATS

For whatever reason - look how your query does in Feb - only since 1999

Minimum(date@team and season,N=3) >= date - 4 and 1999 <= season and 2 < line < 7.5 and month = 2

[pip2]

For whatever reason - look how your query does in Feb - only since 1999

Minimum(date@team and season,N=3) >= date - 4 and 1999 <= season and 2 < line < 7.5 and month = 2

Looks like the success of that query is driven by February (and to some extent) December results. I must have made the query before I became more careful about checking the month distribution. Oh, well, December is near, and Consigliere has a supporting query, so I will hunker down and cross my fingers! Thanks for pointing this out, jmon!

[hyahya]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/22/14 8:31am pst Toronto Raptors/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 207

AD and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and o:rest<3 and o:WP>=45 and game number<=70 and season>=2006

Play over the total on an away dog off a high scoring big win against an average or better opponent without excessive rest. Verified the yearly distribution and its been quite consistent.

[nash13]

i stay away tonight, good luck to all of you.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Hey guys, here's one I found that maybe can be added to the spreadsheet. It doesn't apply to any games today, but the sample size and win rate are pretty good and will hopefully pop up soon:

19-91 (-10.05, 17.3%) 27-83-0 (-4.30, 24.5%) avg line: 5.8

[dmitean]

Don't see any logic behind this query, but good luck testing it!

[JMon]

Hey guys, here's one I found that maybe can be added to the spreadsheet. It doesn't apply to any games today, but the sample size and win rate are pretty good and will hopefully pop up soon:

19-91 (-10.05, 17.3%) 27-83-0 (-4.30, 24.5%) avg line: 5.8

nice work! Like it. Only two losing years, of which were juice, - last 19 years.

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-22-14 - 12:10p PST

Play: NO (-3) over UTH, -110

SDQL:

AF and p:AFL and p:line>=-3 and line>=-9 and season>=2006

SDQL English:

Taking an away favorite here after they tripped and lost their last road game as a favorite against a team they were supposed to easily handle if they executed (previous line between -3 and -9). Works particularly well if the team was blown out/embarassed in that loss as the Pelicans were yesterday.

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-22-14 - 4:18p EST

Play: NO (-2.5) over UTH, -107. Hate to tail the last BB again but that looks the strongest to me today.

SDQL:

AF and p:AFL and p:line>=-3 and line>=-9 and season>=2006

SDQL English:

Taking an away favorite here after they tripped and lost their last road game as a favorite against a team they were supposed to easily handle if they executed (previous line between -3 and -9). Works particularly well if the team was blown out/embarassed in that loss as the Pelicans were yesterday.

[pip2]

Spitball Queries after the dust settles

Sorry, I checked too early this morning, and barely scraped the surface as far as what queries would be available:

wsh covers vs mil from consigliere -- ATS:53-30-3 (1.44, 63.9%)
o:rest + op:rest + opp:rest < 2 and AF and playoffs = 0 and season >=2009

bkn/sa OVER From hyahya O/U:79-43-1 (4.35, 64.8%)
p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0

ny covers vs phi from flyinair ATS:94-59-2 (1.53, 61.4%) O/U:59-94-2 (-3.44, 38.6%)
F and p:AL and p:margin <=-6.5 and WP >= o:WP and line <=-7.5 and total >=187 and total <=212 and season >=2006

ny covers vs phi From mako ATS: 58-33-1 (2.23, 63.7%)
F and p:AL and p:margin <=-8 and WP >=o:WP and line <=-10.5 and game number <=68 and total >=187 and total <=212 and season >=2006

no covers vs ut from nash ATS:290-224-8 (0.44, 56.4%)
A and F and p:A and p:L and total >= 198

no covers vs ut From S S ATS: 51-30-3 (1.40, 63.0%)
AF and p:AL and p:steals < op:steals and p:rebounds < op:rebounds and season > 2008

no covers vs ut from sportsmind -- ATS:43-19-0 (2.88, 69.4%)
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2007 and total > 199

no covers vs ut from sportsmind --ATS:39-15-1 (2.65, 72.2%)
AF and p:AFL and p:line >= -4 and season > 2007 and total > 199

no covers vs ut From Nash ATS:154-94-4 (2.03, 62.1%)
A and p:AFL and p:line >=-4 and season > 2007

no covers vs ut from consigliere sitpost #1390 -- ATS: 304-215-11 (0.57, 58.6%)
AF and p:AL and p:ats margin < 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >=2006

tor/cle UNDER from hyahya in sitpost 1663 O/U:9-32-0 (-11.44, 22.0%)
tA(points) > 101 and p:TPA > 25 and p:TPP < 30 and season > 2007 and p:FTA <25 and 210 >total> 200 and p:L and season

tor/cle UNDER FROM HYAHYA O/U:34-59-2 (-4.02, 36.6%)
H and total >=200 and tS(ou margin < -11,N=2)=2 and game number < 30

mia and hou cover vs orl and dal From pip ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
pu margin > 10 and rest < 1 and P:L and season > 2008

tor and wsh cover vs cle and mil From rcg O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps < -11 and op:dpa < -11 and rest <= 1 and o:rest <= 1

sac wsh and no cover and UNDER vs mn, mil, and ut pip --ATS:93-142-3 (-2.11, 39.6%)
season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest = 0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60

wsh covers vs mil From pip ATS:60-96-5 (-1.44, 38.5%)
Minimum(date@team and season,N=3) >= date - 4 and season > 2008 and 1.5 < line < 7.5

[teecee]

Yes, that was before we didn't know links could not be posted. So yes, they are against the rules.

Okay, thank you. Your thread is most interesting. Thanks for sharing.

[Ronald S.]

No Best Bet for me today. GL all

[SportsMind]

No best bet. CFB today.

[SportsMind]

No best bet for me today. Too much CFB.

[pip2]

Hey guys, here's one I found that maybe can be added to the spreadsheet. It doesn't apply to any games today, but the sample size and win rate are pretty good and will hopefully pop up soon:

19-91 (-10.05, 17.3%) 27-83-0 (-4.30, 24.5%) avg line: 5.8

Thanks cutler! I stashed that one away for a rainy day...

[Cutler'sThumb]

[pip2]

Spitball Query Results

1-0: wsh covers vs mil from consigliere -- ATS:53-30-3 (1.44, 63.9%)
o:rest + op:rest + opp:rest < 2 and AF and playoffs = 0 and season >=2009

0-1: bkn/sa OVER From hyahya O/U:79-43-1 (4.35, 64.8%)
p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0

0-1: ny covers vs phi from flyinair ATS:94-59-2 (1.53, 61.4%) O/U:59-94-2 (-3.44, 38.6%)
F and p:AL and p:margin <=-6.5 and WP >= o:WP and line <=-7.5 and total >=187 and total <=212 and season >=2006

0-1: ny covers vs phi From mako ATS: 58-33-1 (2.23, 63.7%)
F and p:AL and p:margin <=-8 and WP >=o:WP and line <=-10.5 and game number <=68 and total >=187 and total <=212 and season >=2006

1-0: no covers vs ut from nash ATS:290-224-8 (0.44, 56.4%)
A and F and p:A and p:L and total >= 198

1-0: no covers vs ut From S S ATS: 51-30-3 (1.40, 63.0%)
AF and p:AL and p:steals < op:steals and p:rebounds < op:rebounds and season > 2008

1-0: no covers vs ut from sportsmind -- ATS:43-19-0 (2.88, 69.4%)
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2007 and total > 199

1-0: no covers vs ut from sportsmind --ATS:39-15-1 (2.65, 72.2%)
AF and p:AFL and p:line >= -4 and season > 2007 and total > 199

1-0: no covers vs ut From Nash ATS:154-94-4 (2.03, 62.1%)
A and p:AFL and p:line >=-4 and season > 2007

1-0: no covers vs ut from consigliere sitpost #1390 -- ATS: 304-215-11 (0.57, 58.6%)
AF and p:AL and p:ats margin < 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >=2006

1-0: tor/cle UNDER from hyahya in sitpost 1663 O/U:9-32-0 (-11.44, 22.0%)
tA(points) > 101 and p:TPA > 25 and p:TPP < 30 and season > 2007 and p:FTA <25 and 210 >total> 200 and p:L and season

1-0: tor/cle UNDER FROM HYAHYA O/U:34-59-2 (-4.02, 36.6%)
H and total >=200 and tS(ou margin < -11,N=2)=2 and game number < 30

2-0: mia and hou cover vs orl and dal From pip ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
pu margin > 10 and rest < 1 and P:L and season > 2008

2-0: tor and wsh cover vs cle and mil From rcg O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps < -11 and op:dpa < -11 and rest <= 1 and o:rest <= 1

3-2-1: sac wsh and no cover and UNDER vs mn, mil, and ut -- pip --ATS:93-142-3 (-2.11, 39.6%)
season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest = 0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60

1-0: wsh covers vs mil From pip ATS:60-96-5 (-1.44, 38.5%)
Minimum(date@team and season,N=3) >= date - 4 and season > 2008 and 1.5 < line < 7.5

Total: 17-5-1

[miczz14]

oops

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/22/14 8:31am pst Toronto Raptors/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 207

AD and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and o:rest<3 and o:WP>=45 and game number<=70 and season>=2006

Play over the total on an away dog off a high scoring big win against an average or better opponent without excessive rest. Verified the yearly distribution and its been quite consistent.

hyahya for the sake of honest tracking- this play will not be added due to no odds posted.

[JMon]

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Yesterday's recap 4-0 (+4.00) -

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 5-4 (+1.40)

2. pip2 - 4-3 (+.85)

3. nash13 - 5-2 (+2.97)

4. Ronald S. - 5-3 (+1.90)

5. hyahya - 3-3 (-.35)

6. Mako-SBR - 3-4 (-1.40)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 5-2-1 (+2.86)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-1 (-.10)

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[JMon]

Going to pass today!

[Ronald S.]

1-0: wsh covers vs mil from consigliere -- ATS:53-30-3 (1.44, 63.9%)
o:rest + op:rest + opp:rest < 2 and AF and playoffs = 0 and season >=2009

0-1: bkn/sa OVER From hyahya O/U:79-43-1 (4.35, 64.8%)
p:AW and op:AW and A and rest=0 and o:rest=0

0-1: ny covers vs phi from flyinair ATS:94-59-2 (1.53, 61.4%) O/U:59-94-2 (-3.44, 38.6%)
F and p:AL and p:margin <=-6.5 and WP >= o:WP and line <=-7.5 and total >=187 and total <=212 and season >=2006

0-1: ny covers vs phi From mako ATS: 58-33-1 (2.23, 63.7%)
F and p:AL and p:margin <=-8 and WP >=o:WP and line <=-10.5 and game number <=68 and total >=187 and total <=212 and season >=2006

1-0: no covers vs ut from nash ATS:290-224-8 (0.44, 56.4%)
A and F and p:A and p:L and total >= 198

1-0: no covers vs ut From S S ATS: 51-30-3 (1.40, 63.0%)
AF and p:AL and p:steals < op:steals and p:rebounds < op:rebounds and season > 2008

1-0: no covers vs ut from sportsmind -- ATS:43-19-0 (2.88, 69.4%)
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2007 and total > 199

1-0: no covers vs ut from sportsmind --ATS:39-15-1 (2.65, 72.2%)
AF and p:AFL and p:line >= -4 and season > 2007 and total > 199

1-0: no covers vs ut From Nash ATS:154-94-4 (2.03, 62.1%)
A and p:AFL and p:line >=-4 and season > 2007

1-0: no covers vs ut from consigliere sitpost #1390 -- ATS: 304-215-11 (0.57, 58.6%)
AF and p:AL and p:ats margin < 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >=2006

1-0: tor/cle UNDER from hyahya in sitpost 1663 O/U:9-32-0 (-11.44, 22.0%)
tA(points) > 101 and p:TPA > 25 and p:TPP < 30 and season > 2007 and p:FTA <25 and 210 >total> 200 and p:L and season

1-0: tor/cle UNDER FROM HYAHYA O/U:34-59-2 (-4.02, 36.6%)
H and total >=200 and tS(ou margin < -11,N=2)=2 and game number < 30

2-0: mia and hou cover vs orl and dal From pip ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
p: ou margin > 10 and rest < 1 and P:L and season > 2008

2-0: tor and wsh cover vs cle and mil From rcg O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps < -11 and op:dpa < -11 and rest <= 1 and o:rest <= 1

3-2-1: sac wsh and no cover and UNDER vs mn, mil, and ut -- pip --ATS:93-142-3 (-2.11, 39.6%)
season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest = 0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60

1-0: wsh covers vs mil From pip ATS:60-96-5 (-1.44, 38.5%)
Minimum(date@team and season,N=3) >= date - 4 and season > 2008 and 1.5 < line < 7.5

Total: 17-5-1

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/23/14 9:30am Reduced Basketball 503 Charlotte Hornets +2 -102* vs Miami Heat

SDQL:

AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3 and (month=11 or month=12) and -2 < line < 6

SDQL: English
A dog on the road has won less than half its games and just played the day before or the day before that. It lost its last game ATS. while its opponent is on a small win streak of 1 or 2 ATS. The game is played in November or December and the line is in between -2 and 6.

Note this was riffed off a bigger base query from google groups: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%) AD and WP<50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0<o:ats streak<3

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-23-14 - 12:32pm EST

Play: DEN (-1) vs LAL, -115 Carib.
SDQL:

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and month!= 3 and playoffs=0

SDQL English:

A road team on a tight line after winning by more than 10 at home the previous game and winning the previous matchup with these two teams. Opponent less than 2 days rest and not in March. Lakers a bit tough to predict of late and Nuggets are coming on. I think the Nuggets hold out on them and win by 7 or 8.

[Consigliere]

5 unique picks on the spreadsheet tonight. 2 of them covered in BB already. Went 5-4 last night, 9-5 previous night, rounding out at 55-35 overall this year plus 14 or 15 UNITS if you tailed everything.

[JMon]

@ pip

note in your query...the line parameter (emphasizing a small fav) is offset by attaching 'AD'. Also you may consider eliminating the line 5.5.

Looks good!

[pip2]

Spitball Queries

lal/den over funfreaker O/U:183-117-3 (4.66, 61.0%)
tA(FGA) > 84.3 and otA(FGA) > 84.4 and H and tA(turnovers) + otA(turnovers) <=30.5

cha covers vs mia from J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

por covers vs bos from hyahya ATS: 21-38-0
H and season > 2000 and line > 5 and p:margin < -15 and op:margin > 5 and p:A and pp:A

por covers vs bos From nash13 sitpost# 1291 ATS: 91-158-7 (-2.05, 36.5%)
H and p:fouls <= 14 and p:AD and 7 > line > -10

[hyahya]

Apologies on the lack of odds yesterday.

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-23-14 - 10:24pm PST

Play: DEN (-1.5) vs LAL, -110
SDQL:

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and playoffs=0

No need for query translation given Consig already covered it.

[pip2]

@ pip

note in your query...the line parameter (emphasizing a small fav) is offset by attaching 'AD'. Also you may consider eliminating the line 5.5.

Looks good!

jmon, thanks for pointing out the AD redundancy, but I'm not getting the reference to "line 5.5"?

[JMon]

jmon, thanks for pointing out the AD redundancy, but I'm not getting the reference to "line 5.5"?

look to see how the line 5.5 does....you may consider -2 < line < 5.5

[pip2]

look to see how the line 5.5 does....you may consider -2 < line < 5.5

got it! thanks!

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-23-14 - 11:10am PST

Play: GS (-8) vs OKC, -110

SDQL:

HD and p:L and p:ats margin<0 and p:TPA>=18 and p:TPP<25 and rest>0 and o:streak>1 and line>=4 and season>=2006

SDQL English:

Fading a home dog with a day or more of rest that lost its last game both straight up and ATS, and in that loss chucked it up a ton from beyond the arc while making them at a far lower level than average...against a streaking hot opponent laying four or more points.

Notes:

Lot of points to lay and this play is usually the squarest of square bets on the card when it seldomly comes up (meaning the public is all over the favorite and the line is typically garbage because of it), but until it burns me I'll keep playing it, and what's not to like about tailing Golden State...right?

[nash13]

I take off tonight too, nothing special up there for me. concentrate on NFL.