NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**Cutler'sThumb** · 11-29-14, 04:29 PM

Boy, two pretty good trends from Pip and Mako butting heads. As Mako said, might be a trap for Mavs, but we're trying to take capping out of it, lol. I'll get in the spreadsheet and see what else there is.

**dmitean** · 11-29-14, 04:37 PM

Dirk is resting tonight for Dallas and Nelson and Felton are questionable as well.
You don't need to be an NBA team to beat the Sixers, but still...

**nash13** · 11-29-14, 04:55 PM

I am caught between two queries. Will look at the lines for an hour or so, and decide afterwards.

**hyahya** · 11-29-14, 06:03 PM

Here's one that's not active today that I'll be adding to the spreadsheet:

p:margin<-8 and p:line<-5 and 50<WP<65 and o:WP>50

**aek** · 11-29-14, 06:25 PM

Hi everybody,this is my first message on sbrforum and i mostly read,follow only this thread. I have contact with nash13 before on different forum called shortly ''bk''. I'm playing like this trends over 3 years. I was member of another paid trends service. BetLa... (maybe it is forbidden to write long name that's why i put some .. ) This year i mostly use sports database archive. J'mon asked how ours statistic about trends. I have record last 3 years on NBA , on 1157 plays and hit %58 for me it is perfect. And more than 1500 plays on MLB hitting %62 and on NHL 888 plays with %57 .

You want from people who only read and don't write this thread to write or join your community that's why i'm writing. But mostly i have same queries almost everyday. The only difference is I use also trends with betting percentage. I would like to join you in shortly if some help or something like to do...

**pip2** · 11-29-14, 06:42 PM

Great to have you join in aek! When you say you use trends with betting percentage, do you mean you raise and lower the size your bets depending on how strong you think a given query is?

**aek** · 11-29-14, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Great to have you join in aek! When you say you use trends with betting percentage, do you mean you raise and lower the size your bets depending on how strong you think a given query is?

no ,I use,actually the last paid service shows me trends, use vegas betting percentage. for example they also use same trends with us and than they adding betting percentage on last 10 years . for example when home dog have more than +10 hcp and betting percentage is more than > %35 , the hitting is %72... then play on home dog... etc

that is only difference with sports database.

**JMon** · 11-29-14, 09:08 PM

Aek..welcome, I'm having hard time understanding you. Are you doing RLM? Why use a paid service?

**Consigliere** · 11-29-14, 11:06 PM

I'm going to be on the road for work this week so I'm doubtful to be posting any best bets. I also have been putting the nba picks in early afternoon into the spreadsheet but won't be able to do that while I'm away. Hopefully somebody else can pick that up for a bit. The trends keep putting up units. Good work guys.

**Mako-SBR** · 11-29-14, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

Dirk is resting tonight for Dallas and Nelson and Felton are questionable as well.
You don't need to be an NBA team to beat the Sixers, but still...

Damnit, no wonder! And they still almost covered. My god 76ers, lol...

Originally posted by aek

Hi everybody,this is my first message on sbrforum and i mostly read,follow only this thread. I have contact with nash13 before on different forum called shortly ''bk''. I'm playing like this trends over 3 years...

Hi aek, welcome!

**Cutler'sThumb** · 11-29-14, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

I'm going to be on the road for work this week so I'm doubtful to be posting any best bets. I also have been putting the nba picks in early afternoon into the spreadsheet but won't be able to do that while I'm away. Hopefully somebody else can pick that up for a bit. The trends keep putting up units. Good work guys.

I've been doing it for the last few days and will happily keep it up while you're gone Consig. I can get real time starved during the week, especially if i can't get it done early but I'll do my best. Will also keep working the hockey plays, as time allows. Looks like we might be missing a winning scenario there too. Unique NBA plays are 6-1 tonight (I took 76ers too, but not counting that due to the conflicting plays principle). Been a stellar NBA weekend so far.

**pip2** · 11-30-14, 12:32 AM

The following is not a real stellar query, but it seems to have a capability for sniffing out teams that are in long term ATS slumps:

playoffs = 0 and game number > 5 and season > 2007 and tA(points - TPM*3 - points in the paint - FTM) > ( tA(points)*.285)

It seems to show that teams which, on average, score more than 28% of their points from midrange, are mired in some kind of long term slump which only ends when they cut that percentage down somewhat. Their slumps appear to be marked by entering that zone of point-distribution-percentage, and then by leaving it. Currently, ny appears to be engaged in one of these slumps...

I'm wondering if it would work to fade ny a unit a day until it gets out of that zone...

**aek** · 11-30-14, 04:55 AM

Originally posted by JMon

Aek..welcome, I'm having hard time understanding you. Are you doing RLM? Why use a paid service?

I was using it last years ,now no more...Yes it was RLM. I had known sports database but i didn't understand how to use or how to search. nash13 helped me when i have questions than i started learning and discovering . Now I use only sports database and what i remember from past service.that's all.

**JMon** · 11-30-14, 10:06 AM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 47-40-1 54% (+4.35) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 1-3 (-2.30)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 6-8 (-1.90)

2. pip2 - 8-4 (+3.79)

3. nash13 - 6-3 (+2.87)

4. Ronald S. - 6-6 (-.45)

5. hyahya - 5-4 (+.55)

6. Mako-SBR - 5-7 (-2.70)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-3-1 (+3.84)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-3 (-2.20)

**JMon** · 11-30-14, 10:51 AM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

11-30-14 - 9:44a CT

Play GS -8.5 (-110)

SDQL: H and 9.5 >= line >= 3.5 and p:margin <= -10 and opoints >= 100 and oppoints >= 100 and opppoints >= 100 and 2009 <= season and playoffs = 0 and o:rest < 2

In the reg season fade a home dog off a loss of 10 or more against an oppt who gave up 100 points three straight and is on less than 2 days rest.

**pip2** · 11-30-14, 11:59 AM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/30/14 8:45am pst Reduced Basketball 807 Memphis Grizzlies/Sacramento Kings Over 194½ -105*

SDQL:

playoffs = 0 and season >2007 and game number > 10 and tA(TPM*3/p

oints,N=4) + tA(points in the paint/p

oints,N=4) > .7 and streak=4

SDQL: English

Since 2007 (and after the 10th game of the season) a team that has won 4 in a row and has scored over 70% of its points during those games either in the paint or from beyond the arc, will probably go over the total in its next game.

**pip2** · 11-30-14, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by pip2

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/30/14 8:45am pst Reduced Basketball 807 Memphis Grizzlies/Sacramento Kings Over 194½ -105*

SDQL:

playoffs = 0 and season >2007 and game number > 10 and tA(TPM*3/p

oints,N=4) + tA(points in the paint/p

oints,N=4) > .7 and streak=4

SDQL: English

Since 2007 (and after the 10th game of the season) a team that has won 4 in a row and has scored over 70% of its points during those games either in the paint or from beyond the arc, will probably go over the total in its next game.

Sorry, I accidentally stuck in an old version in my bet of day. I didn't want to alter the bet because that might not be kosher. but the real version is:

playoffs = 0 and season >2007 and game number > 10 and tA(TPM*3/points,N=4) + tA(points in the paint/points,N=4) > .68 and streak=4

and the english would then read "68 percent"

The weird thing is that the mistake I made using the "p:" in front of "points" didn't really change the outcome of the query very much!

**Mako-SBR** · 11-30-14, 01:51 PM

Nothing from my sheet today, am tailing JMon's query though. BOL all!

**Ronald S.** · 11-30-14, 02:24 PM

NBA Best Bet

11/30/14 2:20 PM EST

Portland -13 -110 vs Minnesota (bookmaker)

D and p:ADW and p:margin <= 2 and season >= 2011
ATS: 16-41-0 (-4.11, 28.1%) avg line: 5.6

Play against the dog coming off a narrow win as an away dog in their previous game. 16-41 ATS since 2011.

Needed a few days to regroup after a bad run. Hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving!

**pip2** · 11-30-14, 03:29 PM

A guy on another forum was posting that he always bets the following without even considering the line (except he just expressed it verbally, there was no mention of querying):

p:M3 > 0 and A and p:L and rest = 0

He fades the 1st quarter bet on teams that show up under this query. I checked it since 2010 using

p:M3 > 0 and A and p:L and rest = 0 and season > 2010 and [M1>-line/4]

and it seems to hit at over 60% (granted not every 1st quarter line is exactly 1/4 of the game line) with around a 100 sample size.

In case you might be interested in such a thing...

**dmitean** · 11-30-14, 03:57 PM

Not even close to 1/4.

Just a sample for half time bets, since I do a lot of first quarter and first halves bets.

Yesterday, Wizards - Pelicans - game total 198.5. First half total? 95 points. Still took the Under and won, but regardless...

Bookies read the map as well and if they see first half/ first quarter trends, they act...

Now that query has nothing to do with it obviously, but just as far as looking at 1st quarter line as 1/4 of full game line goes...

**pip2** · 11-30-14, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

Not even close to 1/4.

Just a sample for half time bets, since I do a lot of first quarter and first halves bets.

Yesterday, Wizards - Pelicans - game total 198.5. First half total? 95 points. Still took the Under and won, but regardless...

Bookies read the map as well and if they see first half/ first quarter trends, they act...

Now that query has nothing to do with it obviously, but just as far as looking at 1st quarter line as 1/4 of full game line goes...

Well let's take an uncharacteristically large spread -- 16 points; a straight division by 4 would give a 4 point quarter spread. But let's say there is some crazy skew causing a team to do outlandishly good or bad during first first quarters. That might cause the spread to shift to 2 or 6, but I think it would be extremely rare for the quarter spread to shift any more than that. But the sample games I looked at, the teams-to-be-faded were getting blown out in the first quarter after the letdown of losing the previous night after being ahead at the end of the third quarter...

**JMon** · 12-01-14, 07:51 AM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 49-41-1 54.4% (+5.30) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 2-1 (+.95)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 7-8 (-.90)

2. pip2 - 8-5 (+2.74)

3. nash13 - 6-3 (+2.87)

4. Ronald S. - 7-6 (+.55)

5. hyahya - 5-4 (+.55)

6. Mako-SBR - 5-7 (-2.70)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-3-1 (+3.84)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-3 (-2.20)

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**pip2** · 12-01-14, 10:19 AM

I have been getting killed by this:

season=2014 and day=Sunday and H

O/U: 9-18-2 (-5.93, 33.3%)

Is there any way to turn things around and make money off of it? Or is it too random?

**emceeaye** · 12-01-14, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by pip2

Well let's take an uncharacteristically large spread -- 16 points; a straight division by 4 would give a 4 point quarter spread. But let's say there is some crazy skew causing a team to do outlandishly good or bad during first first quarters. That might cause the spread to shift to 2 or 6, but I think it would be extremely rare for the quarter spread to shift any more than that. But the sample games I looked at, the teams-to-be-faded were getting blown out in the first quarter after the letdown of losing the previous night after being ahead at the end of the third quarter...

That's nice--very intuitive rationale... Tweaked it a bit:

p:M3 >= 3 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -2 and rest = 0 and [M1 > - line / 4] = [False]

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

That's nice--very intuitive rationale... Tweaked it a bit:

p:M3 >= 3 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -2 and rest = 0 and [M1 > - line / 4] = [False]

Yes, the more they are ahead at the end of the third and the more they lost by at the end of the game, the more demoralized they are!

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 12:27 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/1/14 8:30am pst Reduced Basketball 701 Miami Heat/Washington Wizards Under 188 -105

SDQL:

p:dps < -11 and op:dpa <-11 and rest <=1 and o:rest <= 1

SDQL: English

In the previous game the team scored at least 12 points less than expected, while their opponent, in their previous game, allowed at least 12 points less than expected, For today's game, neither team has had more than 1 day of rest....

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-01-14, 12:42 PM

Just updated the spreadsheet. Sixers/Spurs Under 197.5 (line has moved down now tho) looks to be a pretty good play.

These trends are very similar, with the first one just allowing for a slightly larger sample size.

205>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

200>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

**emceeaye** · 12-01-14, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Yes, the more they are ahead at the end of the third and the more they lost by at the end of the game, the more demoralized they are!

And that they are a dog helps as much as, if not more than, being on the road.

**Ronald S.** · 12-01-14, 01:29 PM

Will be passing on Best Bet today but I did find a little something here that supports the Wizards Heat Under today.

34-30 (1.97, 53.1%)
30-32-2 (-0.92, 48.4%)	avg line: -2.9
23-40-1 (-2.18, 36.5%)	avg total: 195.4

**Ronald S.** · 12-01-14, 01:31 PM

@pip2: Ah I see you have a similar query for the wizards/heat under. GL my friend!

**emceeaye** · 12-01-14, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

Just updated the spreadsheet. Sixers/Spurs Under 197.5 (line has moved down now tho) looks to be a pretty good play.

These trends are very similar, with the first one just allowing for a slightly larger sample size.

205>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

200>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

Add day=Monday, and things get rosier, albeit with a smallish sample size

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Add day=Monday, and things get rosier, albeit with a smallish sample size

Or if you want a larger sample size add in [Sunday,Monday,Tuesday] , I think it hits at around 69%...

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Ronald S.

@pip2: Ah I see you have a similar query for the wizards/heat under. GL my friend!

Thanks Ronald, I think I'm going to need some luck because this is kind of a chase bet after losing so many over bets yesterday...

**emceeaye** · 12-01-14, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Yes, the more they are ahead at the end of the third and the more they lost by at the end of the game, the more demoralized they are!

It's interesting that when they lose by too much (i.e., by more than 2) it's not quite as demoralizing as when it is a loss by 2 or less... However, sample size may be too small to have enough power to be able to legitimately differentiate between a loss by a little and a loss by a lot.