NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/5/14 9:30AM pst Reduced Basketball 803 Oklahoma City Thunder -12½ -109* vs Philadelphia 76ers


SDQL:

AF and p:AL and total >= 198

SDQL: English

Bet the away favorite when they lost their last away game as a favorite and the total is more than 198 and when you feel pretty sure that the Thunder are not in the kind of frame of mind to leave the back door open for the sixers...

[pip2]

Nice...on it too:

4 >= p:M3 >= 1 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -2 and rest = 0

Another one tonight with CHA vs NY (who blew their lead over CLE last night)...

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-5-14 - 12:30p PST

Play: TOR (-3.5) CLE -110

SDQL:
A and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W and pppp:W and ppppp:W and rest=0 and line>=-8 and month in [12,1] and season>=2009

English:
Fading an away team that's won their last four in a row on no rest, in the months of December and January only and with a line no larger than -8

Notes:
A short term trend that's only been good lately, this one conflicts with literally four other systems today...all of which have CLE. But I like to roll the dice when it comes to the Best Bet, need to break out so will let it fly...

[emceeaye]

Another one tonight with CHA vs NY (who blew their lead over CLE last night)...

Nice! Thanks, pip...on it again!

Taking a closer look, Fridays is one of the better days for this query, and especially in Dec, Mar, and Apr. Fridays in Dec show an average 1st quarter point differential of 8.8.... when the team that blew it the night before loses ATS the first quarter.


p:M3 > 0 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -8 and rest = 0 and [M1 < - line / 4] = [True] and day = Friday and month

Otherwise, overall (N=2), on Fridays in December, the point differential is 8:

p:M3 > 0 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -8 and rest = 0 and day = Friday and month=12

[dmitean]

conference='Western' and o:conference='Eastern' and 20141001<=date

71-31 (5.25, 69.6%)
58-43-1 (2.24, 57.4%)	avg line: -3.0
40-60-2 (-1.64, 40.0%)	avg total: 200.2

That is just amazing!
Western teams have almost 70% success rate against the East...
Talk about difference between Conferences...

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 56-49-1 53.3% (+3.77) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 0-2 (-2.08)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 8-9 (-1.00)

2. pip2 - 10-7 (+2.66)

3. nash13 - 6-4 (+1.82)

4. Ronald S. - 8-8 (-.55)

5. hyahya - 6-4 (+1.55)

6. Mako-SBR - 5-9 (-4.90)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-3-1 (+3.84)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 3-3 (-.20)

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-5-14 - 4:45p CT

Play: Hawks UN 201 -110

SDQL: p:W and p:division=po:division and op:HW and op:margin<=3 and rest<2 and o:rest<3

Play under a team off a divisional win against an oppt off a win of 3 or less.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-5-14 - 4:45p CT

Play: Hawks UN 201 -110

SDQL: p:W and p:division=po:division and op:HW and op:margin<=3 and rest<2 and o:rest<3

Play under a team off a divisional win against an oppt off a win of 3 or less.

I love seeing these guys on a situational play that I already had picked for myself! Go under atl!

[JMon]

I love seeing these guys on a situational play that I already had picked for myself! Go under atl!

Let's get it!

[Heart]

if you guys are looking for another person to replace someone for best bets let me know. I'd like to give it a whirl. In case anyone gives a poo my best bet today woulda been the Thunder -12.5 but it moved to -13.5 at this point.

[emceeaye]

Nice! Thanks, pip...on it again!

Taking a closer look, Fridays is one of the better days for this query, and especially in Dec, Mar, and Apr. Fridays in Dec show an average 1st quarter point differential of 8.8.... when the team that blew it the night before loses ATS the first quarter.


p:M3 > 0 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -8 and rest = 0 and [M1 < - line / 4] = [True] and day = Friday and month

Otherwise, overall (N=2), on Fridays in December, the point differential is 8:

p:M3 > 0 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -8 and rest = 0 and day = Friday and month=12

[pip2]

If okc doesn't win ATS, I'm going to kick myself for not going with CHA 1st quarter as bet of the day...

[Alex Vaile]

Let's get it!

Nice one JMon!

[Alex Vaile]

Thanks for posting emceeaye I bet it with you.

[dmitean]

Posted tomorrow's queries on the file.
5 queries overall - nice to see a little drop, since tonight was a bit insane...

Some queries I think shouldn't be there. Didn't touch it, since there are many guys that understand queries way better than me, but someone should really go over them and delete (2 - 3 at least I think).

Really like both queries supporting the Pelicans. Two Bulls fade are also nice. Wouldn't put too much in to the fact that one of them is 0 - 2 this season. It was Houston, playing without three starters and I think it really confused the trend, since it's based on a team being a home dog and Houston would have never been a HD if not for the injuries...

[JMon]

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 58-51-1 53.2% (+3.58) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 2-2 (-.19)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 9-9 (+0.00)

2. pip2 - 10-8 (+1.57)

3. nash13 - 6-4 (+1.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-8 (+.45)

5. hyahya - 6-4 (+1.55)

6. Mako-SBR - 5-10 (-6.00)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-3-1 (+3.84)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 3-3 (-.20)

[dmitean]

Was curious to see, what happens, when a good team, gets very good line - due to injuries or schedule.
Took teams above 65% WP as road dogs by 6+ points and home dogs in general. Also excluded November and April, since November can have teams that don't belong (like the Sixers that started the season with 3 straight wins) and in April, many times, teams stop to care and you can see really weird lines in the final week.
site=away and line>6 and 20101001<=date and WP>=65 and month in [12 , 1 , 2 , 3]

Here the results:
Away SU:10-29 (-9.69, 25.6%)ATS:15-24-0 (-1.94, 38.5%) avg line: 7.8O/U:18-20-1 (-1.24, 47.4%) avg total: 197.1
Home SU:10-19 (-4.17, 34.5%)ATS:12-17-0 (-1.24, 41.4%) avg line: 2.9O/U:16-12-1 (4.52, 57.1%) avg total: 191.5

If we go higher, to 70%+, we get smaller sample size, but even clearer results:
Away SU:4-13 (-11.59, 23.5%)ATS:5-12-0 (-3.91, 29.4%) avg line: 7.7O/U:7-10-0 (-1.50, 41.2%) avg total: 194.6
Home SU:5-12 (-5.47, 29.4%)ATS:6-11-0 (-2.32, 35.3%) avg line: 3.1O/U:9-7-1 (0.91, 56.2%) avg total: 188.4

Obviously that proves that the better the team, that gets the high line, the better the reasons for that...

[dmitean]

Then I did the reverse check - bad teams, getting very high lines (thinking of the Pistons tonight).
Teams below 35%- WP as 6+ points home favorites or road favorites:
site=home and line<-6 and 20101001<=date and WP<=35 and month in [12 , 1 , 2 , 3]
Home SU:40-14 (8.37, 74.1%)ATS:31-19-4 (0.81, 62.0%) avg line: -7.6O/U:26-27-1 (0.92, 49.1%) avg total: 197.3
Away SU:30-12 (5.86, 71.4%)ATS:26-14-2 (2.87, 65.0%) avg line: -3.0O/U:16-25-1 (-2.94, 39.0%) avg total: 194.4

Decided to test the same with 30%- WP teams:
SU:13-6 (7.95, 68.4%)ATS:11-8-0 (0.42, 57.9%) avg line: -7.5O/U:8-11-0 (-3.34, 42.1%) avg total: 196.2
SU:16-6 (5.05, 72.7%)ATS:13-7-2 (1.95, 65.0%) avg line: -3.1O/U:10-11-1 (-1.09, 47.6%) avg total: 192.6

When bad teams get high lines, it's usually for a reason...

[nash13]

Seems like there are some good systems in the google group. I will sum them up tomorrow once I am back.

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

12/6/14 8:05am pst Reduced Basketball 505 Golden State Warriors -2½ -107* vs Chicago Bulls


SDQL:

playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/points + points in the paint/points > .76 and conference=Western and op:margin > -2

SDQL: English

Excluding playoff games, and since 2007 in the Western conference, bet on a team that has won its previous game, and which is reasonably close to its opponent in terms of number of wins for the season, if in the previous game, more than 3/4 of the team's points were generated either from beyond the arc or in the paint. Bet only if the opponent won it's previous game, or at least lost by no more than one point.

[dmitean]

If you add rival from the Eastern conference, you get even better results:
playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/points + points in the paint/points > .76 and conference=Western and o:conference=Eastern and op:margin > -2

[pip2]

If you add rival from the Eastern conference, you get even better results:
playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/points + points in the paint/points > .76 and conference=Western and o:conference=Eastern and op:margin > -2

nice! thanks!

[Ronald S.]

No best bet for me today.

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-6-14 - 12:00p PST

Play: SAS (-13) MIN -110

SDQL:
D and P:HL and P:margin<-9 and p:HL and p:margin>-4 and month in [11,12,2,3,4] and season>=2006

English:
Fading a dog that suffered a big home loss previously against the same team losing by 9 or more, and now coming off a tight heartbreaker home loss entering this rematch.

Notes:
Ton of points to lay, but don't worry I'm sure Pop will scratch Duncan/Ginobli right before warmups...

[Mako-SBR]

If you add rival from the Eastern conference, you get even better results:
playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/points + points in the paint/points > .76 and conference=Western and o:conference=Eastern and op:margin > -2

Nice pip and dmi, like it!

[Cutler'sThumb]

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-6-14 - 12:00p PST

Play: SAS (-13) MIN -110

Like it Mako! I'll be tailing, as your's supports the stronger trend for the Spurs (#46)

P.S. NHL plays are up on the sheet. Didn't have time to get them done for the early games, but we didn't miss much.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-6-14 - 3:09p CT

Play Rockets UN 207.5 -110

SDQL: 2007<=season and tS(ou margin, N=5)>=42 and WP>=75 and 75>=o:WP>=60 and rest<4 and o:rest<2

English:

Since 2007....Play under a great team going over the total in their last five by 42 or more, against a good team.

[JMon]

I just to take a moment and say thanks to those, in this thread and readers, for considering sdql as way of handicapping. It's definitely for the open-minded -critical thinkers of society. That in itself is what I appreciate the most. I would have never thought (when mako make his first post on a sdql question a short couple years ago) it would have gained this much support. I consider myself a leader and a follower; that is I helped those understand its power through the years as well as reap the benefit of those more savvy than I.

Cheers to us miners (situational players) and too many great years ....

[pip2]

I just to take a moment and say thanks to those, in this thread and readers, for considering sdql as way of handicapping. It's definitely for the open-minded -critical thinkers of society. That in itself is what I appreciate the most. I would have never thought (when mako make his first post on a sdql question a short couple years ago) it would have gained this much support. I consider myself a leader and a follower; that is I helped those understand its power through the years as well as reap the benefit of those more savvy than I.

Cheers to us miners (situational players) and too many great years ....

Cheers jmon! I know I still wouldn't know squat about any of this if you and mako had not set up a great environment like this thread within which to learn. Big thanks to both of you.

[Mako-SBR]

I just to take a moment and say thanks to those, in this thread and readers, for considering sdql as way of handicapping. It's definitely for the open-minded -critical thinkers of society. That in itself is what I appreciate the most. I would have never thought (when mako make his first post on a sdql question a short couple years ago) it would have gained this much support. I consider myself a leader and a follower; that is I helped those understand its power through the years as well as reap the benefit of those more savvy than I.

Cheers to us miners (situational players) and too many great years ....

I was just thinking the same thing yesterday, being in awe of the thread and how so many people are absolutely crushing it for us in SDQL now.

Not to mention the "2.0" version of it all, nash's excellent sheet, which just in itself is mind-boggling compared to when we started this originally.

Thanks JMon for all the help, and for all the great contributions from everyone in the thread, a rising tide lifts all boats and this collection of talent certainly proves it.

[JMon]

[dmitean]

I think that query 63 on the list shouldn't be there. It was a short term query with bad percentage to begin with and now it just not working at all. What do you think guys?

I think the same about query 26...

[dmitean]

If we combine query 6 and query 12, we get very nice numbers:
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2010 and total >= 198

Even if we look at the last decade, still 66.7% success rate:
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2004 and total >= 198

[Alex Vaile]

If we combine query 6 and query 12, we get very nice numbers:
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2010 and total >= 198

Even if we look at the last decade, still 66.7% success rate:
p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2004 and total >= 198

It's pointing to Pelicans play tomorrow too! Good luck and thanks all for posting!

[dmitean]

Posted today's queries in the file...