phoenix is a play
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Damn .. Nash is out .. Phoenix won't cover, but I already put it inComment -
phoenix buried me on that one, had them -9 for game 1unit, and -3.5 for 2H 2units. missed it by .5 pts
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How many times have a i seen a team covering the spread with a 50 secs to go then miss a basket then the underdog scores. Resulting in the favourite loosing the spread. How much i hate it when a team has won and runs down the last 20 seconds just dribbling and not going for another 2. Well the suns screwed the system spread which they should have made. Although nash went out with those back spasms early. System loss i think.
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yes it is a loss. we just have to eat the fact that nash left the game early, should have been a blow out if he stayed in. I agree with you will, nothing is more annoying than a team running out the clock when they are 2pts shy of covering the spread. Thats why I don't like to play DD spreads, teams seem to lay down a little bit at the end when they have a good lead.
I'm comfortable with that loss. If nash would have stayed in, it would have been an easy system win...we can't forsee something like that happening during the game though. We'll get 'em next timeComment -
hey guyz... sorry i wasnt able fire up my spreadsheet today. 'been busy. so what did i miss today?Comment -
phoenix was the play, -8.5 was the opening line, -9.5 was the closing line...they didn't cover either one, so it was a lossComment -
I went over the spreads for tomorow and i didnt see any plays but i may of made a mistake does anyone want to double check itComment -
i checked them earlier and saw no plays, i'll check again later just in case there have been any decent line movementsComment -
Nah .. no plays unless there' lots of movementComment -
Well nick and I both agreed earlier that this was a "weak" play. It just didn't look good. ATL is a good team. Plus the play number was low. I just teased this one
So my point: This could be more evidence supporting higher p number = higher odds/put more money down. I'm glad I did the teaser.
But, you never know the system is what? 13 - 3 now? Do we count -P plays in the official record? If so Denver would have been a play. Mundane post it up. Keep it accurate. Remember this is a test.
Also another thing I noticed: The public was all over Phoenix on the -9 spread. Around 80% or higher right? To me this is dangerous...just a hunch. I am always skeptical about something when the general concensus says "yes". I think with all of our other plays, the public was less "on it". I have no idea how to find this information though, but maybe we should keep a log in here using bettracker or espn for correlation between strong PLAYS and strong "public market margin".Comment -
Denver had played back to back games. They would not have been a play.Well nick and I both agreed earlier that this was a "weak" play. It just didn't look good. ATL is a good team. Plus the play number was low. I just teased this one
So my point: This could be more evidence supporting higher p number = higher odds/put more money down. I'm glad I did the teaser.
But, you never know the system is what? 13 - 3 now? Do we count -P plays in the official record? If so Denver would have been a play. Mundane post it up. Keep it accurate. Remember this is a test.
Also another thing I noticed: The public was all over Phoenix on the -9 spread. Around 80% or higher right? To me this is dangerous...just a hunch. I am always skeptical about something when the general concensus says "yes". I think with all of our other plays, the public was less "on it". I have no idea how to find this information though, but maybe we should keep a log in here using bettracker or espn for correlation between strong PLAYS and strong "public market margin".Comment -
Maybe I am doing maths wrong, but isn't Miami a play for other team ATS in the Clev. vs Miami game on Tuesday? I am using the -4.5 Line FOr fav(Cleveland)Here is my math:
Clev win% 86
miami win% 55
Diff: 31
31/20=1.55
1.55 -3= -1.45
Thanks in advance for a reply from someone who understands the system. I am still learning I suppose.Comment -
Oh, I see i missed the last step which is to subtract the spread. Once it is subtracted back out it gives a number of 3.05, which is a NO PLAY.
Sorry....as I say..I am still learningComment -
I am listing an example using an NCAA game only for learning purpose. Can some one please inform me if this is correct? I realize it is an NCAA game, I am just asking if the math is correct is all..
Game is George Mason on the road vs Dayton at home. The line is -7.5 for the team with greater win %(Dayton)
GM win%:90
Dayton win% 100
Difference is 10
10/20=.5
.5 +3 for Dayton since they are home = 3.5
3.5 - 7.5(spread) = -4 It is a negative number..
So would that mean that the other team ATS (George Mason) would be the play at the ATS spread of +7.5?
Thanks again for someone picking this up and helping out for training purposes..Comment -
This doesn't really work very well Right now for CBB, but your math looks right. You just need to check you filters. Starters out? Back to back game? If the number is negative I'd look into it more. Maybe tease it or buy some pts. Or just bet on it straight up less weight.
Just go back a few threads and get Mundane's excell sheet. plug the numbers in. It works fine. Just check your team data if you think you have a play with this.
Note to all: this is a test Mundane is doing. It's only being tested on NBA, and it is quite rare when a play comes up. Don't just blindly go on the numbers.Comment -
Thanks for your reply to the q!
Do you know if there is anyone tracking for CBB and what the early results are?Comment -
i got Utah won last night by using the calc sheet at the closed line 6.5pts...did i make it right guys? thanks.Comment -
According to the system Atlanta is a huge play today, yes? My calculations say 14.67. What do you think? Any starters out?
I also get Dallas to 10.00 and it says PLAY.Comment -
lol no. You could look at curious' ML wagering thing in the THINK TANK section. You're in the wrong thread, but I'll help ya:
google POMROYComment -
Guys! The system lost a game last nigh....BFD! It is 13-3! My god some of you just don't get it. And on top of that it probably would have won if Nash had not been out most of the game. Do you think it is going to hit every single game?
Some of you are awfully naive. I believe the title to this thread says 70% Math Play System, or something like that. Well currently it is at 81%.Comment -
12/29 result 0-1
suns didnt cover!
12/30 no plays but check my calculations and check the notes.
ytd: 10-2
please check below. don't forget to read the accompanying 'notes'.
lemme know if there are any mistakes. im only human.
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Ah, yes, Atlanta back-to-back. What about Dallas? Oh, spread. Dang, I need to concentrate more. I keep forgetting "the rules". Sorry.Comment -
I know I've said this before, but I believe the program is no good when the team with the lower win% is fav. THINK ABOUT IT, using CHAR/NYK as example, if you use NY as selected team(they have higher win% and are dogs) if you add the spread for final step, you come up with a final # of 2.72(the spread is -4.5) so if the spread was -12.5 it would be a final #of 10.72,which would indicte play on fav which makes no sense!
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On the flip side of the coin, if you use team with lower win% as selected team you will always get play on dog, I think I will throw these games out of consideration, as I've been following this system it seems in this spot( lower win% being fav) that the fav has been covering.I know I've said this before, but I believe the program is no good when the team with the lower win% is fav. THINK ABOUT IT, using CHAR/NYK as example, if you use NY as selected team(they have higher win% and are dogs) if you add the spread for final step, you come up with a final # of 2.72(the spread is -4.5) so if the spread was -12.5 it would be a final #of 10.72,which would indicte play on fav which makes no sense!Comment -
so any play today?Comment -
actually, it wouldn't be a play because the spread is greater than 10, but i see what you are saying. i'll do some research and see if i can find something about this in old posts.I know I've said this before, but I believe the program is no good when the team with the lower win% is fav. THINK ABOUT IT, using CHAR/NYK as example, if you use NY as selected team(they have higher win% and are dogs) if you add the spread for final step, you come up with a final # of 2.72(the spread is -4.5) so if the spread was -12.5 it would be a final #of 10.72,which would indicte play on fav which makes no sense!Comment -
do we play atlanta or indiana?Comment -
Alright Dinero, heres what i've found for today from the other forum concerning the system play...seems you are onto something here!
This was backed up by the guy who originally brought this system to their forum 2 years ago, I'll see if I can find any more examples for us to look at.knicks will be a play at no less than +2.5(so +2 would be no play). barring a 3 point drop down to +2, knicks are for sure a play
clippers would have been a play but zack randolph is out
guys, larrylegend has been very busy and is no longer able to put in enough time to do this for you guys. he asked me to take over. i have been talking with him a lot about the formula and i have nailed it all down and know exactly how to do everything. so dont worry.
this is how i got knicks +5.
ny 379 minus char 355=24/20=1.2, then, higher win % team is on the road, so minus 3 from 1.2= -1.8, thhen you add the spread, +5. -1.8+5=3.2, which is above positive 1, making it a play. when a better win% team is the underdog, you do the negative/positive computation. must go at least negative 1, and then after adding the spread, go to positive 1 or over. also, knicks didnt play last night and have no recent injuries
EXAMPLE 2
you only do this if the team with a higher win % is the underdog. like the spurs had a better win % than the suns yesterday but the suns were favored at -2.5. so, spurs 643 minus suns 593=50. ALWAYS do the better win % first, and then subtract smaller win %. no matter what. then, after you get 50, divide by 20, and you get 2.5. then, subtract 3 because the team with better win % is on the road. so, 2.5 minus 3= -0.55. you would round this up to -1, since its closer to -1 than zero. the "-0.55" number needs to be -1 or less(or rounded to -1 like this situation, if its not -1 or less, or rounded to -1, then there is no play, you stop there), and THEN, the last thing you do is add the spread, which is +2.5. you add the underdog's spread. obviously, way to remember to add the spread is you cant add the favorite's spread because its negative(-2.5), so you add +2.5 spurs, so -0.55+2.5=1.95, which is greater than positive 1. so it must go at least -1, then back to at least positive 1 after adding the spread. ok, phew, there ya go sir. anyone else have questions let me know, give larry a break
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just noticed something weird on the other forum over there...
their record for the year as of 12/26 was 7-7, and they don't have some of the same plays as us
if you follow what i put above, play new york at your own risk until we can figure out what the discrepancies between our record and their record are. this might be because of what they are doing with the "negative/positive computation"Plays this year:
Denver -5 at Sac W 118-85
Orlando - 3.5 at LAC W 95-88
Utah -5 at Minn L 99-96
Det -4 at Wash L 94-107
Port +2 at Utah L 88-97
San Antonio -8 at Minn W 98-86
Atlanta -8.5 vs. Char L 83-79
Det -9.5 vs Wash W 88-74
Milw +3.5 at Phil L 88-93
NJ +2.5 vs Utah L 92-103
Phoenix +4.5 at Port L 119-124
NJ +3.5 vs. Dallas W 121-97
Orlando +2 vs Lakers W 106-103
Dallas -6 at Washington W 97-86
7-7Comment -
Hmmm.Comment
