"70% math play" system tracking

[porkchop817]

You guys still on this system? All it goes off is records and made up rules, learn how to cap your own games.

i think most of us do handicap our own games, we also use this. why get mad when this little study has given us a few winners?

[porkchop817]

well, the celtics got raped by the knicks

[BigMoneyMan]

You really should go to CKs thread and except the truth. I took the nicks and the ML!!! i am going to post my system and see if it wotks

[indeed]

MoneyMan - I visit both and CK definitely is the man, but this system has worked very well when we follow it correctly. The Celtics were a no play according to the system, so no one should have taken it and anyone who did really is kicking themselves in the teeth right now. Whatever system CK works really well, too .. I look at CK's leans, this system, and my own research to come up with my plays, so it's all about using your resources to come up with the best ways to win the money

[willpies]

Good work Money Man i look foward to following your system

And tomorrow if nuggets line moves to -7.5 its a play

[black666]

And tomorrow if nuggets line moves to -7.5 its a play

nope.

indiana: .364
@
denver: .657

657 - 364 = 293 / 20 = 15
denver is playing at home: 15 - 3 = 12

so it needs to move at least to -2 for it being a play. since that is not going to happen -> no play

[nick2060]

u add 3 for teams playing at home not subtract

[xerac]

01/05 0 Plays





Toronto at Milwaukee - is NO play due to toronto playing yesterday so is back to back.

Sacramento at New Jersey - is NO play as Harris is out with hamstring injury.

All other game today are also no plays from what i can see

[porkchop817]

nope.

indiana: .364
@
denver: .657

657 - 364 = 293 / 20 = 15
denver is playing at home: 15 - 3 = 12

so it needs to move at least to -2 for it being a play. since that is not going to happen -> no play

willpies is right, it would be a play if denver moved to -7.5, but it doesn't appear that is going to happen

[underdog]

Sorry I took so long to reply. Yes. The higher that number the stronger the play. If you caught the line at -8.5 with Boston it would have been a play.

I caught it 10 minutes before they took it off the board and put 10 units on it. They won by 25.

Thanks for that! Does it also mean that the greater the -# on s situation when it says "Play other team ATS that this is a stronger play than a lower # For example: If the -# is -7.5 vs -2, would the -7.5 be a stronger play than the -2?

[black666]

u add 3 for teams playing at home not subtract

oops, sorry ... did the math wrong

[underdog]

oops, sorry ... did the math wrong

So when a team is at home do we input as -3 , or 3?

[underdog]

I now see I was using just the opposite with -3 for home and +3 for away. Ok, now here is the funny part of this. I am looking at games from last year just to get an idea of the performance of this and I have been using +3 for away and -3 for home...with a very high win ratio. How is this possible? I have not been applying any of the filters mentioned, just go with the wins/losses and no injuries, B2B,..just using the filter where no double digit spreads.

[underdog]

I guess what I have done is effectively taken away the advantage for home field and handicap for being on the road. Would it not then make it more stringent and difficult to reach a play score of "10"

[indeed]

OMG we have a play!!!

Boston @ Charlotte
829 - 323 = 506
506 / 20 = 25.3
25.3 - 3 = 22.3
22.3 - 9.5 = 13.3 = PLAY!

I jumped on it before the line becomes a double digit ..

[indeed]

Not sure what to make of the Knicks' starting lineup .. their last three games this week have had the same lineup (Chanlder, Lee, Richardson, Jeffries, Duhon) .. but the game before that had Tim Thomas in there instead of Jeffries, who hadn't returned from his injury yet. The line has to go to -1 for it to be considered a play with the math, but I'm not sure I'm touching it, even if it is against the Thunder ..

[SportsLockPicks]

are we sure that the celtics is a play? no injuries...all parameters have been checked?

[SportsLockPicks]

OMG we have a play!!!

Boston @ Charlotte
829 - 323 = 506
506 / 20 = 25.3
25.3 - 3 = 22.3
22.3 - 9.5 = 13.3 = PLAY!

I jumped on it before the line becomes a double digit ..

see, this is why i am always weary of someone throwing up a play...your math is wrong, but it still may be a play..here is the correct breakdown

829-353= 476
476/20= 23.8
23.8-3= 20.8
20.8-9= 11.8

but if you read the fine print, it actually ISN"T a play since in OPENED at -10

[pubster77]

wouldnt the current line override the opening line? (ie. its sharper?)

[Devon]

wouldnt the current line override the opening line? (ie. its sharper?)

I believe you are meant to use the line at which it opens, otherwise there's fluctuation all the way up to game time.

BTW, I have the line opening at -9.5

[AdaBarber]

You can use whatever line you catch that makes it a play. Remember the higher the ouput the better the play. I think Boston is a play. It has a low number above ten at -9.5. If it gets better the better the play. I put a small wager on this because the system says 10. something which makes it a play.

[therber2]

I don't think opening line matters all that much as far as this system is concerned, and I haven't checked Filters for Boston and Bobs, but I'd be careful...I would say Bos wins first and third quarter (light bet). If they are down at halftime play Bos points for second half (heavy). I would say do a light bet Bos for points on the game. There are a lot of weird teams right now; I just don't trust my money with overpaid, high ranked teams like this one...

Boston -9
Boston 1st and 3rd pts or ML
Boston 2nd half points if they are down at the first half (heavy -- everything else seems like a gamble to me).

GL!

[vassman86]

I'd exercise caution on this one. Ever since they lost to the Lakers on Christmas day, the Celtics have been brutal on the road! Celtics are 2-5 SU in their past 7 games. They need to find their rhythm again! I don't think they'll cover this spread against an improved Bobcats team.

Between these two teams, in the past five meetings, Celts are 4-1 SU, but have only been able to win by more than 10 only once; when they blew out Charlotte (on the road) 101-78 at the end of last season.

[xerac]

just had a quick look at boston Garnett hurt his leg in sundays game so just wait and see if he playings will have closer look when i do my spreadsheet when i get back

[willpies]

Celtics are a play tomorow

[indeed]

Eep .. sorry about that .. glad it's still a play.

According to scoresandodds.com, the line opened at -9.5 ..

[willpies]

people use the fuking spread sheet

[xerac]

01/06 1 Play (Updated)



Orlando No play as its a DD spread.

Boston game is a Play just check injury list and boston has none listed so look like Garnett is ok from the knock he got in there last game. updated allen was not a starter.


Houston from what i can see got starter Baitter out with foot injury and couple more are questionable with injurys so No play.

[MJ]

I believe you are meant to use the line at which it opens, otherwise there's fluctuation all the way up to game time.

BTW, I have the line opening at -9.5

This is a system based on mathematics so it should not have to depend on the opening line. It depends on the line that you place the bet on. The opening line has no magical quality that makes this system work any better.

[MJ]

01/05 0 Plays





Toronto at Milwaukee - is NO play due to toronto playing yesterday so is back to back.

Sacramento at New Jersey - is NO play as Harris is out with hamstring injury.

All other game today are also no plays from what i can see

I played the Nets yesterday cuz Harris did play. Also the Sucramento Kings really do suck.

[black666]

garnett is injured ( http://www.nba.com/playerfile/kevin_garnett/ ) so it's not really a play anymore

[xerac]

MJ - have to allow 7 days for return starters before can become a play so still would of been no play

yeh saw garnett was injury to his leg but he did come back and finish the game even though said hes got injury cant find anything saying he be out and not playing tonight just says day to day for injury he got on 4th jan but cant find anythign says he be out and not playing guess you can add it as no play to your spreadsheet for tracking but already added it as play to mine

[schaapattack]

So if garnett plays its a play and if he doesnt play its a no play?

[therber2]

Once, again....NO PLAY

Bet at your own risk on this one.

[black666]

So if garnett plays its a play and if he doesnt play its a no play?

it's not a play either way. a starter has to be back 1 week before his team becomes a play again:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/119874-nba-math.html

you can bet on your own risk though .. it just isn't a play as far as the system is concerned.