"70% math play" system tracking

willpies · 01-02-09, 07:01 AM

Wizards have a good record against the celtics so dont go to big

underdog · 01-02-09, 07:46 AM

Celtics only a play if no Double digit spread right?

zackattack · 01-02-09, 10:55 AM

The lakers are a play at -9.5 and den at -7.5........still waiting for boston line

AdaBarber · 01-02-09, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by zackattack

The lakers are a play at -9.5 and den at -7.5........still waiting for boston line

Neither of those are plays. Boston is the only play when the line was -8.5. The play was in the 26. something. That means it is a almost a guaranteed pick. The bookies saw it and quickly took it offline and put it back at 14.5

indeed · 01-02-09, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by underdog

Celtics only a play if no Double digit spread right?

Yea, sorry .. when I said "max of 15" I should have said "max of 9.5" .. the 15 was because the math worked out to 35 and I wasn't thinking of the double digit rule.

Man, I'm starting to think this system is so successful because it limits your plays a lot!

zackattack · 01-02-09, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by AdaBarber

Neither of those are plays. Boston is the only play when the line was -8.5. The play was in the 26. something. That means it is a almost a guaranteed pick. The bookies saw it and quickly took it offline and put it back at 14.5

DENVER IS A PLAY!!!!!.....CHECK YOUR MATH.....i did make a mistake with lakers......sorry, but i see denver as a definate play..here is the math
den win % is .636
okl win % is .121
difference is .515/20 = 26 mimus 3 for den being away team is 23 and then minus the spread of 7.5.......fianl number is 15.5.......that makes it a play! and yes i know that carmello missed last friday but he did play sunday and to me thats 6 days. if den doesn't cover then i will know i should have obeyed the 1 week rule for starters.......but what the hell.

DevilDog · 01-02-09, 03:02 PM

Screw that rule!!! Denver it is! LOL.

indeed · 01-02-09, 03:15 PM

OK, you can count Melo, but you can't count Nene, who missed a game earlier this week as well and is playing hurt because the Nuggets have no depth down low.

underdog · 01-02-09, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by AdaBarber

Neither of those are plays. Boston is the only play when the line was -8.5. The play was in the 26. something. That means it is a almost a guaranteed pick. The bookies saw it and quickly took it offline and put it back at 14.5

Thank you for all of the hard work that you have put in on this project.

If I may ask a question..

Is it to mean that the greater the number that comes out once the wins, losses, spread and -3/+3 is input that the chances are more likely of a win against the spread line?

therber2 · 01-02-09, 05:54 PM

It's kinda funny how desperate people are for a "Play". No plays today yall. Discipline....or take a gamble, but don't blame the system. Reminder: this is a test. Even if it has worked doesn't mean it is proven to work. All we can assume is that there is a correlation....

willpies · 01-02-09, 06:01 PM

Pistons -8 is a play im pretty sure. although they might be missing starters.
Yeah only the nuggets for today.

therber2 · 01-02-09, 06:11 PM

Maybe someone should post some links for good sources for the "filters". (eg. starters, starter injuries, starter history, game b2b at nba.com obviously, espn has very....ehm not so up to date info...same with nba.com)

So if someone knows where to find the most up to date sports info post it up baby!

underdog · 01-02-09, 06:39 PM

So If my spreadsheet is correct Sacremento is a play as the other team ATS vs Indiana for Thursday. Is this correct?

underdog · 01-02-09, 06:48 PM

I show the number as -7.37 using a line of -8. I hope that is correct.

therber2 · 01-02-09, 10:22 PM

Welp, you guys think the filters aren't important...let's see what happens with Denver...pretty tight game....BUT I will admit OKC is the most erratic team I've seen. Bettor's nightmere!

Rio DiNero · 01-02-09, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by therber2

Welp, you guys think the filters aren't important...let's see what happens with Denver...pretty tight game....BUT I will admit OKC is the most erratic team I've seen. Bettor's nightmere!

I think filters are important if you want to hit at a high% with this system. I have been tracking all plays filtered and unfiltered since 12/19, record including non-filtered plays is 17-15 so you may want to put some weight into these filters.

ChuteBoxe · 01-03-09, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by Rio DiNero

I think filters are important if you want to hit at a high% with this system. I have been tracking all plays filtered and unfiltered since 12/19, record including non-filtered plays is 17-15 so you may want to put some weight into these filters.

How detailed is your spreadsheet? I'm curious to know what the record is of plays that typically would be a play, but doesn't pass a filter. Go the other way on those teams with injuries or on B2B's, but otherwise should win?

therber2 · 01-03-09, 02:12 AM

Stop calling Plays....when they aren't plays. Start a new thread called "70% ALMOST plays" if you're going to do that. There were no plays today.

By the way, this system is meant to be used with your brain. Just going off a NBA calculator will send you to the poorhouse. That is why we have filters. Even if you have a play, think again.

I might place large wager that most people here don't really even follow NBA.

xerac · 01-03-09, 03:52 AM

been following this for while now here how i have the system so far

Wins 10
Loss 3
76.92%

02/01 1 Play

Denver -7.5 at Oklahoma City - 15.26

03/01 0 Play's

All teams today are back to back games so no play

Current Record i have

any mistake you can see please let me know so can follow it proper

indeed · 01-03-09, 04:15 AM

No plays on Saturday 1/3 due to back-to-back game rule.

xerac - I do not believe we can count the Denver game as a play. Again, Nene missed a game earlier this week. He is their starting center and although he came back, he was not back for the week "the system" requires for starters to be back.

willpies · 01-03-09, 05:42 AM

The real flaw with the system is that Oaklahoma is improving yet has not been winning. The system doesnt know this it only sees wins and losses. Having said that Denver should have won by more than 2 points..
Hopefully the system picks up soon lol

indeed · 01-03-09, 05:54 AM

I think you're right, willpies, but that doesn't change the actual system in regards to Nene. Since we're tracking this system, which has the starter rule, it shouldn't have been a play. At the same time, though, I think the system sort of accounts for the Thunder's improvement when it factors in the spread .. because the Thunder have gotten better, the Thunder weren't double-digit dogs in this game, you know? That "human element" sort of accounts for intangibles.

Matters not - I still am liking what we have tracked so far in the system. It isn't the only thing that dictates my wagers or anything like that, but it is interesting to see how it pans out over the next few weeks.

willpies · 01-03-09, 06:45 AM

If we werent including that one we could rule out a win with dallas where dirk didnt play. So it should remain there. Missing starters and back to backs are no no games though.

NBA Hero · 01-03-09, 08:35 AM

no plays. too bad. lots to recover

zackattack · 01-03-09, 08:51 AM

ok guys i tried to bend the rules a bit last night with denver....we know how that turned out. i like this system but it can be days before we get a play. that being said the system would be about 11-2.....but since we are all gamblers we are all playing other things as well. the point is that yes the system works but if we followed every rule and just bet the "plays" we would be bored out of our minds. so from now on this is what i personally will be doing.......i will only bet the official plays and bet them big....i will play whatever cocknocker says (he is on fire and prob best capper on the board) and i will play other things but i will play them small. so if we only get 2 or 3 plays a week from this math system at least using this betting method we should see a nice profit.

xerac · 01-03-09, 09:05 AM

ok ill put a note on denver should of been no play so when season end and we look at results we can always take denver out see if it affects the results much.

AdaBarber · 01-03-09, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by underdog

Thank you for all of the hard work that you have put in on this project.

If I may ask a question..

Is it to mean that the greater the number that comes out once the wins, losses, spread and -3/+3 is input that the chances are more likely of a win against the spread line?

Sorry I took so long to reply. Yes. The higher that number the stronger the play. If you caught the line at -8.5 with Boston it would have been a play.

I caught it 10 minutes before they took it off the board and put 10 units on it. They won by 25.

AdaBarber · 01-03-09, 09:34 AM

Denver was injured and in order to take Denver. Today would be exactly seven days that Melo returned. And Nene is a starter. That shouldn't count. The Boston play should.

xerac · 01-03-09, 10:22 AM

yeh but i never saw it -8.5 was -14.5 when i check so was no play why i didnt log it ok take denever out as no play just everyone was posting denver play why i added it

xerac · 01-03-09, 11:03 AM

updated

Wins 11
Loss 2
84.62%

ok updated to my mistakes people posting denver as play when no filter checks where done also myself to blame for not checking aswell and just taking the info.

also boston was play as AdaBarber noted open -8.5 which was play but when i did my spreadsheet was -14.5 which was no play due to 10+ spread rule but if you got it early would of been a play so added

underdog · 01-03-09, 11:28 AM

Just to let you know..

I get a different result when using the java program than the manual excel formula. I understand there are no plays today, but when I entered the information for the Milwaukee game into the java program I got a "no play". When I used the excel formula I got a "Play" for Milwaukee with a score of 11.36. Anything over a score of 10 should show up as a play correct? The java program should have indicated the same..right? I used the line of +1.5 for Milwaukee and -1.5 for their opponent.

tnt · 01-03-09, 02:07 PM

this system is familiar to this:

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/basketball/a/nbabetsystem.htm

though you guys want to check it out for more info.

black666 · 01-03-09, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by tnt

this system is familiar to this:

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/basketball/a/nbabetsystem.htm

though you guys want to check it out for more info.

actually, it's EXACTLY the same system

SportsLockPicks · 01-03-09, 04:04 PM

any plays today fellas?

therber2 · 01-03-09, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by xerac

ok ill put a note on denver should of been no play so when season end and we look at results we can always take denver out see if it affects the results much.

Guys, Denver wasn't a play in the first place! The team had a starter who was out earlier, back in, but not for a week. NO PLAY

On a side note: whoever said the thing about OKC improving has a good point, but I would just take that sort of thing with a grain of salt as far as the system goes. OKC is, like a said, a bettors nightmare. They play like a really good CBB team. Erratic as hell.