"70% math play" system tracking

[willpies]

Yeah im thinking if the favourite is a bit behind at half time and if thats a percentage of the original handicap it might be a play. Ill work on it.
But we cant change the rules in this thread i aggree as well.
Carmello isnt playing so there are NO plays today.

[pubster77]

I dont think there are any plays for tomorrow.

[SportsLockPicks]

I completely agree. We cant properly test this system if we allow exceptions etc.

but maybe we can test 3/4 systems at the same time.

Define exactly what the variation is and keep track of it in a seperate thread. Maybe we can make some good discoveries =)

good call...whats on the slate for tomorrow..my head is cooked from trying to cap the Poinsettia Bowl and i don't feel like doing any math.

[willpies]

I like Rios idea

[SportsLockPicks]

any system plays...or did anyone do the calculations for tomorrows NBA card?

[therber2]

Thanks Mundane for keeping this up to date. You could be on to something....or it could just be dumb luck. I think the system is good because it is a blend of stats. and filters, but as far as the system goes....here is my two cents:

The home and away thing seems too have too much weight in the equation or I think if it is going to be in there it should be dependent on a ratio of each team's home and away record or something like that. Either that or it should just be taken out and used as a filter.

Again, this is my two cents, I don't expect a change. It is just a suggestion to everyone following this system. Mundane, thank you again for doing this and remaining consistent.

By the way, I checked for plays tomorrow. There are none so far. We'll see.

[pubster77]

no plays as far as i can see either.

[strictlywinners]

System is very good, Sportslock it doesn't look like there are any plays tommorrow, from me looking very quickly and this is not complex math it is very simple, get difference of win percentages divide by 20 and 3 to home team, or -3 away, then subtract or add spread, very simple each game only takes a couple seconds you can do it in your head. Take Cavs tommoroow get it now though, lastly what are your thoughts on the total of Hornets Nets, I think I'm leaning strongly towards the under, after all the suckers get on the over and drive it up about 3 points.

[mgeclipse]

Mr Mundane just want to thank you for posting and maintaining this calculations. I've been reading all your post and finally with the calculations and some basic information from other sites, I decided to give it a try tonight and this was the outcome...


User/PhoneGameDateSportDescriptionRisk/WinWin/Loss
AmountResultDate / Time
Placed-1Ticket #: 25132412
Dec 22 08:12 PM

NBA
STRAIGHT BET
[1705] 1H LA LAKERS -7-110

330 / 300

-330
LOSE
LOSE
12/22/2008
07:17 PM -1Ticket #: 25134099
Dec 22 08:40 PM

NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[1132] TOTAL u20½-110 (1H GREEN BAY vrs 1H CHICAGO)

165 / 150

150
WIN
WIN
12/22/2008
07:41 PM -1Ticket #: 25134098
Dec 22 08:42 PM

NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[131] TOTAL o40½-110 (GREEN BAY vrs CHICAGO)

165 / 150

-165
LOSE
LOSE
12/22/2008
07:41 PM -1Ticket #: 25132801
Dec 22 07:42 PM
Dec 22 09:12 PM
Dec 22 08:42 PM

NBA
NBA
NFL
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[703] HOUSTON -235
[710] DENVER -135
[132] CHICAGO -200

300 / 817

817
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
12/22/2008
07:24 PM -1Ticket #: 25132323
Dec 22 07:42 PM
Dec 22 09:12 PM
Dec 22 10:42 PM

NBA
NBA
NBA
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[703] HOUSTON -5½-110
[710] DENVER -2½-110
[711] TORONTO +2½-110

300 / 1800

1800
WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
12/22/2008
07:16 PM
So far so good... Will keep using it....

[strictlywinners]

I love the last parlay, very nice my friend.

[mgeclipse]

I love the last parlay, very nice my friend.

Yes indeed, now it's time to turn the advantage to my side..... next time I'm going heavier on my parlay...

[therber2]

wait **. I'm pretty sure most of those weren't plays just looking through quickly plus you did some of those plays outside of NBA. Are you ignoring filters and such? Fill us in on your nice victory strategy there, my friend.

[mgeclipse]

wait **. I'm pretty sure most of those weren't plays just looking through quickly plus you did some of those plays outside of NBA. Are you ignoring filters and such? Fill us in on your nice victory strategy there, my friend.

Well I've always done ok on NFL. I knew the bears were going to win tonight. So I needed a couple of games that will win for sure to do a 3 team parlay on ML to cover the rest of my other bets including the 3 team NBA parlay on the spread. This is when this "system" came in to place. Also I checked out the NBA "virgin lines" to kind of figure out what the sportsbook will be posting. So after doing a little homework and using the "system" I came up with my picks and won both parlays.

[NBA Hero]

any system play for tom?

[Rio DiNero]

Today, there are no plays if you filter. There are three non-filterd plays ATL,BOS,SA. ATL and BOS are filtered out because they are dd fav's, SA is a dd fav and played last night. I am playing a teaser with BOS and ATL. I haven't been following this too long, but the dd fav's have been hot in this system.

[Rio DiNero]

There is one thing that is confusing, what do we do if dog has better win %? Anyone figure this out. It is not clear what to do in past threads in this situation.Ex: today's game= Indy vs. NJ

[B1GER1C828]

There is one thing that is confusing, what do we do if dog has better win %? Anyone figure this out. It is not clear what to do in past threads in this situation.Ex: today's game= Indy vs. NJ

why would that affect it? you add spread, etc etc doesnt matter

[Rio DiNero]

why would that affect it? you add spread, etc etc doesnt matter

You are to subtract win% of fav - win% of dog(this is what i read in earlier thread).If you do formula this way, in this scanario(dog with higher win%), you will always come up what play on dog. You are saying always use team with higher win %-lower win% no matter who the fav is. Then you would have to add spread not subtract in last step, because in this case team with higher win% is getting points, correct?

[losturmarbles]

it doesnt matter which way you do it, i just always use the home team, take the difference in %, divide by 20 and add 3, then you must add the spread of the home team (which if its a fav then you will be adding a negative, ie subtracting. i think that is where you are confusing yourself)

[therber2]

NCAA test

Alright guys. There are no NBA plays tonight, but I had to try this in combination with the pythag/log5 strat. on the NCAA-B.

Here's a NCAA play:

George Washington vs. Sacramento (GW -12)

it had a line move so its not a play anymore (unless you buy points).

Let's see what happens.

[therber2]

This was close, but it worked (for NCAA); made some sweet cash. I know this string is meant to just track NBA so I'll knock off the other stuff...unless you guys want to hear what I'm doing.

One more thing: I did a teaser on BOS and ATL which were almost plays, but not since they were DD spreads...and won. Sooo...Mundane, my conclusion might be that Double digit bets should be done if the Play number is astronomical (but not too far into the DD's). Perhaps I will try to find a correlation with this.

We have already established the idea that it is safe to assume: if we have a PLAY more money can be put into it if it is well above 10. I personally feel that If we have a "semi-play" meaning it is good, but in the double digits, it could still be a decent play if the PLAY number is WELLLLL above 10 OR you buy points/do a teaser.

What do you all think?or

[willpies]

I think this should just test this system but in the college basketball section your should start some sort of thread that would be cool.
I like the idea of 3 quarter systems a lot as a lot of teams let weaker opponents come back a little.

[B1GER1C828]

people are putting alot of thot into this system, seems everyone under 100 posts are addicted to this thread. Yes its working, but it will fail eventually, good luck

[SportsLockPicks]

what would the celtics lakers line have to be in order to have a play on either of them?

[porkchop817]

If the line is BOS -4, then the play will be on the lakers. If it is BOS +8(or greater) then the play will be on the celtics.

Anything between -4<x>+8 will be a no play

[nick2060]

its +2 so i guess no play

[Rio DiNero]

people are putting alot of thot into this system, seems everyone under 100 posts are addicted to this thread. Yes its working, but it will fail eventually, good luck

Looks like we have a HATER! This system seems to be pretty good. I have been using it not only for the filtered picks, but also as a basis to cap games. For ex, not only did a cash my teaser with ATL and BOS (both were dd fav's so were suppossed to be filtered out)but I also cashed my Atl second half bet as they were up by 2 at half and -6.5 in second half which shaved the final spread down enough for Atl to win the game by less than 10 and cover my second half wager. I have only been following system for about 3 weeks and in using this angle I've been doing very well. You guys may want to keep an eye open to this modification. I'm going to ride this system till it burns out.

[roasthawg]

Looks like we have a HATER! This system seems to be pretty good. I have been using it not only for the filtered picks, but also as a basis to cap games. For ex, not only did a cash my teaser with ATL and BOS (both were dd fav's so were suppossed to be filtered out)but I also cashed my Atl second half bet as they were up by 2 at half and -6.5 in second half which shaved the final spread down enough for Atl to win the game by less than 10 and cover my second half wager. I have only been following system for about 3 weeks and in using this angle I've been doing very well. You guys may want to keep an eye open to this modification. I'm going to ride this system till it burns out.

I don't think he's hating so much as being realistic. Any sort of a system based on math really needs to have a solid foundation as to why it works. Why does this system work? If you can't explain that then I'd advise against putting money on it due to the fact that it will probably only hit at about a 50/50 clip in the long run. Since it's been winning so far this season you really have to watch out for the dreaded "regression to the mean"...if it's really only a 50/50 system then it's bound to start throwing out a bunch of losers anytime now.

[nick2060]

The reason it wins is because the winning percentages have to have a discrepancy and if that difference is big enough, combined with at home or away (-3 or +3) and the spread. I mean i think being over 10 just makes it considered a strong play. It feels like im really doing a bad job of explaining this so ill try a different way.

If a team is really good and really bad but on the road it obviously accounts for that, and if its a 3.5 spread they obviously have a better chance of being over 10 and also covering then if the spread was 9.5. IT just seems to be using common sense more then some tricky arithmatic formula. IT just takes into account things people look at, and cap in games and puts them into a formula

[B1GER1C828]

I don't think he's hating so much as being realistic. Any sort of a system based on math really needs to have a solid foundation as to why it works. Why does this system work? If you can't explain that then I'd advise against putting money on it due to the fact that it will probably only hit at about a 50/50 clip in the long run. Since it's been winning so far this season you really have to watch out for the dreaded "regression to the mean"...if it's really only a 50/50 system then it's bound to start throwing out a bunch of losers anytime now.

exactly

the system just looks for the better team 2 have a great line. What it doesnt put into account is mathchups for teams or how teams do on the road etc, which is why the system mayb be 9-1 rite now, but could end 30-40 at the end of the season. Backing a system can b solid for short term. But every single knowledgeable handicapper on here will tell you over the long run your going to lose with a system.

[B1GER1C828]

winning system: take a favorite of -3 or less, and buy 15 points to +12, wins a real lot good luck

[willpies]

There are no play for tomorow .
If you dont like this thread then dont post in it

[NBA Hero]

no play on christmas?

[therber2]

I'm doin a low wager teaser on Orladando + Clev.

Just a test. I have -9.5 clev. and +2 orlando They both have to cover...again, this is a teaser, AND there are

NO PLAYs tomorrow. I can't even see a line change creating a system play...so don't place anything tomorrow unless you have a fav. or youve done some research on teams. I did a little and there still aren't any good spread plays....Good money lines but none are worth it.

No plays.

[willpies]

That teaser looks perfect. I think Cavs and magic straight up so yeah