"70% math play" system tracking

[jtnguyen79]

mundane posted it in another thread his excel once i find it i'll post that

[jtnguyen79]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/125187-nba-math-excel-sheet-beta.html?highlight=math

[B1GER1C828]

some1 made a java program, looked at it and it works very well

[losturmarbles]

that link doesnt work either

could anyone that has it just attach it to a post here?

you dont have to upload it to an outside link.

[turboj]

what's the forecast for the day?

[AdaBarber]

Link Down

Yeah, the link doesn't work.

[zentiense]

No plays today. Only potential is Miami/Memphis but the system says "no play."

[mundane]

changed file.

[mundane]

did we miss anything? lemme know. i dont think we did though.

12/15
YTD: 2-0

anyway we have a 1 DEFINITE PLAY for tomorrow..
ATL -7.5 (-8.5)

POSSIBLE PLAYS. see posted calculations and notes below.

*please check my calculations, i might have transposed some numbers. 2 games are still waiting for the line. also i might inadvertently track a non-play for a play so always check injuries and back to back games. and lemme know here. tia!

again, this is not my 'system'. im merely tracking this one to see how many games will qualify on this 'system' and if it really has a 70% winning percentage! im trying to do a strict adherance to the 'rules' but i think i'll allow some of the games esp the one with questionable players injuries. im not really sure how to quantify them. so i'll just put an asterisk on my tracking.

[mundane]

No plays today. Only potential is Miami/Memphis but the system says "no play."

12/14 thanks zen!

let's keep track of this shit! if it so happens to be what it claims to be, then i dont mind considering this 'system' in the future!

12/13 was a no play too right?

[AdaBarber]

Line has moved down to ATL -7.5. Are We sill good?

[AdaBarber]

Line has moved dowm to ATL -7.5. Are We sill good?

I guess if the line keeps moving in our favor for the play the chances of covering are increased.

[turboj]

atlanta lose. can't win every time.

[jtnguyen79]

70% of the time not all the time

2-1 now on this system?

[mundane]

wow.. im not sure how to track yesterday's plays.

char @atl - initial post of this 'system' didnt say anything about trades. so shld this be considered a system play?
imo, this shld not be a play. i mean, imagine if kobe, lebron, and howard were traded and were playing for the bobcats on this game, system will still say atl is the play esp now that the spread will reflect that they are the underdog - possible system score of 20+. i think trades messes up the whole idea of this system.


other thoughts...

utah @bos - i mentioned that bos -8.5 would be a play. 100-91 bos wins by 9!!! cover by .5 point.

ny @pho - i mentioned also that pho -9.5 would be a play for ny. 111-103 pho wins only by 8!!! ny cover by 1.5 pt.

i dont think the line ever went bos -8.5 but i saw pho opened at -9.5. so shld pho -9.5 be considered a play (play other team ats)? but then again they were involved in that bobcats trade.

im quite lost. im thinking of giving up on this tracking. the poster that brought up this system didnt elaborate enuff how this thing really works.

so if trades are not to be considered, i suppose we had 2 plays from yesterday.

atl -7 PLAY (LOSS)
suns -9.5 PLAY OTHER TEAM ATS (WIN) *NY covered!

wucha guyz think?

[jtnguyen79]

hmm so with this method for tonight only 2 games tonight since all the other has back to back games

New Orleans vs Memphis
LA Clippers vs OKC

New Orleans right there at 20 games but what about starters?
LA Clippers / OKC - who are the starters haha both team sucks

Havent tried this method but I would like to see something work and if I understand this method hard when it seems like starting lineup for these sorry teams always changes

Mundane,
Do these 2 qualify? If so then that means New Orleans and LA Clippers??

Great job with Excel hope I'm using it correctly

[jtnguyen79]

With trades it affected the starting lineup so that could be considered in the category injure players - thus no play on Atlanta dohhhhhhhhhhhhhh at least I had Indiana and New Jersey to help me out

Maybe I overlooked the forum but I didnt see a pick in NYK or Boston posted

my thoughts: what ever line you used in the calcution and is posted we use that line as the tracker b/c you can always buy half a pt to a pt (I dont like to) but for this purpose and calculations its needed

thus if you did posted boston and NYK then both should be accounted just my opinion, I only saw ATL but I forgot about Charlotte's big trade

[jtnguyen79]

sorry dumb ass here filled out sheet wrong based on the rows rather then the darker yellow box and just scrolled up and figured it out

so tonight base on system should be Memphis and OKC

[mundane]

i mentioned those 2 possible plays on my 'notes'. look closely.

[jtnguyen79]

GAME winlossselected team137-3<- enter -3 (away) / +3 (home)other team915-5.5<- enter the spread5.259.99, "PLAY", "NO PLAY ON THE SELECTED TEAM")'>NO PLAY ON THE SELECTED TEAM-1, "SEE ABOVE FOR PLAY OR NO PLAY", "PLAY THE OTHER TEAM ATS")'>SEE ABOVE FOR PLAY OR NO PLAYNOTES:

so no play man what a bummer?

[jtnguyen79]

what throws me off with system

PLay obviously is easy - and PLAY the other team ATS is easy

does no PLay mean go ahead and play other team?

[mundane]

what throws me off with system

PLay obviously is easy - and PLAY the other team ATS is easy

does no PLay mean go ahead and play other team?

u dont play that game. basically a PASS! a NO PLAY per se!

one reason why im keeping track is to see just HOW MANY GAMES WILL QUALIFY ON THIS SYSTEM?!? somebody mentioned about 100 games... but i think it could be lower!

[AdaBarber]

Trades are Injuries

I think we should treat trades like injuries especially when a starter is involved. I think the week rule should come into play so that the player can become adjusted to his new surroundings. I am installing excel as we speak. Any plays?

[mundane]

12/16

highly unlikely but if bulls catch +3.5 or more against bobcats, it would be a play. other than that, i dont see any other feasible system plays for 12/16. check and see below. lemme know if there are any mistakes.

*red cells are still waiting for the lines!

[nick2060]

Charlotte is on a back to back so that would cancel them out i believe, unless its only for the team your picking maybe? Eitherway the bulls arent +3.5 so it wasnt a play anyways i guess

[jtnguyen79]

yep back to back games

only 2 possible were New Orleans vs Memphis and LA Clips vs OKC all the other games had back to back games

and since the number generated no play then no play

back on yesterday atlanta should be no play b/c charlotte new team, NYK and bostonshould be a no play either since it too came up with NO play for the selected team

but mundane your lean was good for a possible play for those.

all in all man not that many games played which could be a good thing and a good percentage

If I didnt play as many games as I did yesterday I be up alot too haha but instead I'm down

[Rio DiNero]

What is this system based on?

[dlew2k]

maybe we can adjust the spreadsheet to show a range for the point spread to achieve the "10"? at least we can see the necessary point spread . ??? let me give it a shot and see..

[mundane]

btw, back to back games and injuries only apply to the selected team (team with the better winning %). the opposing team back to back or injuries are not considered. im not so sure about trades though.

[roasthawg]

maybe we can adjust the spreadsheet to show a range for the point spread to achieve the "10"? at least we can see the necessary point spread . ??? let me give it a shot and see..

I would say if it ever hits a 10 then it's a play at those odds...since only openers or closers wasn't specified this seems the best way to go about it.

[mundane]

12/17

5 plays for today! check and see below. lemme know if there are any mistakes.

*green are the plays.

[mundane]

btw, back to back games and injuries only apply to the selected team (team with the better winning %). the opposing team back to back or injuries are not considered. im not so sure about trades though.

im not so sure about that one now either. system says hornets would be a play since spurs +2 = play other team ats but hornets would be on back to back and system says "Don't play if selected team played the night before. (No back to back games)" .. and hornets is now the selected(?) team!

errr confusing. imo this is not a play. ill just put an asterisk on this one on my tracking.

wer is that apk2..something guy who first introduced this system. we need some clarifications.

[ICE-BLOOD]

looked at this thread a couple of times
nice work with excel
alot of interesting ideas

the starters injury/trade thing is sketchy

system is based on teams win % and the pointspread

teams win % is related to injured/traded starters

sometimes a starters status is unknown and may be added/scratched before gametime and this may not be known in time to abort or get on the play

the sanantonio team may be better than their record indicates with parker back and ginobili(not a usual starter back)
utah, when boozer comes back, should their win % have been better if he played

it would be nice if the system just gave mathematical plays with no decisions to make

anyway good luck tracking the system and tweaking the filters

[nick2060]

detroit and cleveland are -10, i know its not your system so its hard to get clarification as to whether its the opening or closing line that should be counted but i really dont think it should be counted

[strictlywinners]

Well it had already been counted for the Celtics play, so you must remain consistent. I think the system is actually ment to work with opening lines. Closing lines are to hard because they are consantly changing up until the last second.