Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread

[Coopertrooper]

Still having computer troubles so will update when I can. But a good start with the bombers somehow getting home!

Play #6 - Adelaide 1-39, $2.90 X 0.5

The crows have started to find a rhythm without Walker/Tippett, and have the big advantage of hosting the swans. This is the type of game that Sydney can drop, where the crows can match the swans defensively and make it low-scoring. Good value here, so putting half a unit on.

Play #7 - North Melbourne -21.5, $2.10 X 1.5

The line is off here. The roos are in very good form, while the suns have played up to their very best in the last 4-6 weeks. This game screams of being the bubble-burster for the suns, with the on-fire Petrie capable of causing huge headaches along with the similarly steaming Thomas. Despite the roos having had nervous finishes, they should be able to put this one away.

[Coopertrooper]

Play # 1 - Parlay:
-Essendon 1-39, $2.45
-GWS +84.5, $2.10

Total $5.15 X 0.5 WON


Play # 2 - Essendon 1-39, $2.45 X 1 WON

Play #3 - Essendon -0.5 QT, $1.90 x 1 WON

Play #4 - Essendon -1.5 HT, $1.90 X 1 LOSS

Play #5 - GWS +81.5, $2.10 X 2 WON

Play #6 - Adelaide 1-39, $2.90 X 0.5 LOSS


Play #7 - North Melbourne -21.5, $2.10 X 1.5 LOSS

Round 11: 4-3 +3.63 units

The bombers comeback into a big effort from GWS put the weekend well into the positive. My crows play was well off, with the crows getting belted off the park, some serious questions have to be asked about them now. Same too with the roos, who blew another big lead to the increasingly impressive suns, with seemingly everyone thinking the same way - that the suns bubble would burst. Instead, the suns give themselves a cheeky finals chance, however slim, while the roos have the door slammed shut on 2013.

YTD: 31-52 +8.23 units


Units risked: 103.5
ROI: +7.95%

All in all a pretty good round, with the season moving along nicely. Will probably look for less plays next week than this week, but that will depend on what the books put up!

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 12 LINES (first time I've seen them for this week, they didn't have them up last night):

Carlton +24.5 / Hawthorn -24.5
Richmond -21.5 / Adelaide +21.5
Fremantle -49.5 / Brisbane +49.5
Essendon -33.5 / Gold Coast +33.5
GWS +30.5 / Port Adelaide -30.5
Collingwood -37.5 / western Bulldogs +37.5

[sando]

West Coast +30, I'm on it haha. Got to edit your post mate (GWS v Port)

Richmond -21.5 ?

Was at Aami stadium for Crows/Swans on the w/e and saw the demolition job first hand and whilst I have no doubt the Crows will come out breathing fire this game, surely the a tigers are still a 4 goal better team @ the G? The Crows are finally being exposed I think after such an easy draw last year?

[Coopertrooper]

Haha, thanks sando, not sure how West Coast got in there when they aren't playing this week!

The tigers are still too up and down for me to be confident on them blowing a side apart, but Adelaide certainly look woeful after last week. I thought the crows may have had some concealed form, especially from the week before given how the dockers are going, but Sydney blew that out of the water. There was no secret about their easy draw last year, although their form that year against the better sides was overall pretty good.


Round 12

Play #1 - Parlay:

-Hawthorn 40+, $2.65
-Richmond 1-39, $2.15
-Essendon 1-39, $2.35

TOTAL: $13.39 X 0.5

Play #2 - Hawthorn 40+, $2.65 X 1

Hawthorn are coming off the bye, after being in red-hot form. They looked to be primed to stamp themselves on the competition as they enter their second half of the year. Meanwhile, Carlton suffered a tough loss to the bombers, giving up a big lead, and have a tough month ahead. Carlton are struggling to get consistency from their players, with Waite kicking 7 of the 21 goals scored in last weeks match, yet the blues still lost. Waite will have a tougher time of it this week, so the mosquito fleet need to step up or the blues could get a real touch up. Hitting this for 1 unit, and putting it into a value play with the tigers and bombers 1-39. The tigers have been patchy, but are at the G' against the crows, who are also having a poor year, and should be the better side. The bombers come off their tight win against the blues, and have spent some petrol tickets of late, with some mentally draining times at the club off-field. They face the suns, who are playing their best year of footy yet, but whom have struggled to play 4 quarters against the top sides. They should keep it fairly tight, but the bombers should have the experience to win.

[DHB]

crows will sneak home with the upset of the round.
down to +19.5, i'll take it.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Richmond 1-39, $2.15 X 2
Adelaide have defeated 5 sides this year - and they currently sit in the bottom 6 sides (they haven’t played the 6^th side Melbourne yet), with 6 losses. They sit 10^th, with 1 loss to a side below them (Port). Their form looked promising after they came close to 5^th placed Fremantle, but were put back into place with a thrashing from the Swans last year.

Richmond have defeated 6 sides this year - 1 in the top 8 (Carlton), the other 5 below them (but evenly spread in the bottom 8). Their 4 losses came against good sides.

However, both sides have had some close matches. The tigers best win, against Carlton, was by less than a goal. By the same token, they fell 1 point (and only about 5 meters) short of Fremantle, and did it away from home. Adelaide meanwhile had an extremely lucky come from behind win by 1 point against North Melbourne, but lost to Fremantle and Hawthorn by less than 2 goals (but with both games at home).
I feel that since these sides are 9^th and 10^th, this raw form probably leans just slightly in the tigers favour. However, the fact that the crows are putting their best performances in at home suggests that they are not travelling well. In my mind it means Richmond should be about a 3 goal better side at the MCG, so I think the line has been very sharp. 1-39 is the play here, rolling with 2 units

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Parlay:

-Hawthorn 40+, $2.65
-Richmond 1-39, $2.15
-Essendon 1-39, $2.35

TOTAL: $13.39 X 0.5 LOSS

Play #2 - Hawthorn 40+, $2.65 X 1 LOSS

Round 12: 0-2 -1.5 units
(1 pending)

Hawks got smashed in the clearences, yet the hawks still managed to somehow win. Their midfield was so off, even with Murphy missing most of the game with that big hit/broken jaw. Carlton did well to deny the hawks the footy, and played very well.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Richmond 1-39, $2.15 X 2 WON

Lucky to cash after 2 late goals to the crows got it back to 38 points. As expected the tigers were the better side, but Adelaide didn't come to the party, and were exposed to be even less of a team than previously thought to be. Rely on far too few.

Round 12: 1-2 +0.8 units

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Essendon 1-39, $2.40 X 1

The bombers come into tonight's match amid a lot of pressure from ASADA, with more rumours coming out this week about Hird and an alleged discussion about peptides in 2011. Essendon have surprised me with their resolve in the face of uncertainty and vigorous questioning of the club, and are likely to notch up another win here. There has been a movement of the line in the bombers favour, which is likely based on the Gold Coast not running games out against the top sides, Essendon being one of them this year. The Gold Coast have been playing terrific football, and I think they are a smokey for the top 4 next year, they look fantastic. However, they are having that trouble of running games out. I think they will keep it closer than against the cats and hawks, but will still succumb to the bombers, likely by about 4 goals. 1 unit here, likely the last play that I will have for this week

[hedgejob]

R12: 4 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over

[Crowing Capers]

R12: 4 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over

hey hedgejob i know you been tracking over/unders on this thread, you wouldnt know the season over/unders by any chance ?

[hedgejob]

54 under 43 over

Notably last 5w 28 under 9 over (76% under)

R12: 4 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over
R10: 8 under 1 over
R9: 4 under 5 over
R8: 7 under 2 over
R7: 2 under 4 over
R6: 7 under 2 over
R5: 5 under 4 over
R4: 6 under 3 over
R3: 1 under 8 over
R2: 2 under 7 over
R1: 3 under 6 over

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Essendon 1-39, $2.40 X 1 LOSS

Gold Coast fell away a bit too early, but flirted with getting there late, missing by less than a goal. I thought the Gold Coast would stick with them a bit longer, however the bombers started running away with it towards the end of the 3rd quarter, when the suns looked very tired.

Round 12: 1-3 -0.2 units

[Coopertrooper]

54 under 43 over

Notably last 5w 28 under 9 over (76% under)

R12: 4 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over
R10: 8 under 1 over
R9: 4 under 5 over
R8: 7 under 2 over
R7: 2 under 4 over
R6: 7 under 2 over
R5: 5 under 4 over
R4: 6 under 3 over
R3: 1 under 8 over
R2: 2 under 7 over
R1: 3 under 6 over

Great work mate.

Interesting that the swing has been so drastic. The games early in the year were going so far over, yet the totals now aren't that large. The average scores from each week must have dropped off a lot since the first month.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #5 - Collingwood -8.5 QT, $1.90 X 1

Play #6 - Collingwood 40-59, $4.40 X 1

I'm expecting the pies to have a fairly comfortable win today, starting with a big first quarter. Collingwood have a big chance to catch up the percentage gap, after making some of the way against the dees. Collingwood get some more accountability back into the side, with Didak shown up last week with no defensive pressure or endurance running against Melbourne, replaced with a kid trying to claim a spot in the 22 (Dwyer). The bulldogs have 2 big inclusions in Boyd and Cooney, improving their line-up. The dogs have put 2 wins together and are starting to have some hope, but they are yet to put in a good performance against a side of quality, which I think creates big value here.

Collingwood need to atone for their poor start last week, so playing 1 unit on the QT line. At the same time, Collingwood need to play a 4-quarter game, and need to get their percentage up, or will go into the last part of the season essentially an extra game down. 1 unit on Collingwood 40-59, as I think Collingwood will still struggle to play out a real 4 quarter effort.

[hedgejob]

5-0 under this round now.

COL/WB total 189 at ES. COL brought in 2 small forwards. WB get bit of speed back with Cooney. Good chance this game goes over.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #5 - Collingwood -8.5 QT, $1.90 X 1 WON

Play #6 - Collingwood 40-59, $4.40 X 1 LOSS

Round 12: 2-4 -0.3 units

Thought I read my pies fairly well here, and 99 times out of 100 that game goes over 40+. How we won by less I'll never know. I've missed quite a number of good odds plays by less than a goal on Collingwood this year, my side is starting to tick me off this year.

YTD: 33-56 +7.93 units


Units risked: 110
ROI: +7.21%


Just have to keep rolling along. A mixed bag of luck with the tigers play somehow hitting, and the pies play somehow missing. Will keep up the QT plays, as they seem to be my best bet type this year.

[hedgejob]

I was wrong. Perfect 6-0 under this round.

Under 56 over 43
Last 5: 30 under 9 over

Who knows if it's got to do with the drug thing or if game is changing. ES used to be the highest scoring ground. This season it's produced crazy low scores. Generally the games that have gone over have had just a few kicks in them. The games that have gone under haven't even been close to going over.

R12: 6 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over
R10: 8 under 1 over
R9: 4 under 5 over
R8: 7 under 2 over
R7: 2 under 4 over
R6: 7 under 2 over
R5: 5 under 4 over
R4: 6 under 3 over
R3: 1 under 8 over
R2: 2 under 7 over
R1: 3 under 6 over

[DHB]

tigers/crows went over.
it was @ 180.5 before kickoff.
176.5 the night before aswell, damn should of taken it!

i know it went up to 186.5 at one point, but went down again.

[Coopertrooper]

I don't get the sudden turnaround in the unders, it seems to have started out of nowhere. I wonder how a) AFL teams will respond and b) how books will respond.

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 13 LINES:

Hawthorn -31.5 / West Coast +31.5
Port Adelaide +33.5 / Sydney -33.5
St Kilda -40.5 / Melbourne +40.5
Western Bulldogs +34.5 / Richmond -34.5
Fremantle -25.5 / North Melbourne +25.5
Brisbane +32.5 / Geelong -32.5

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 13


Play #1 - Parlay:
-West Coast QT +7.5, $1.90
-Fremantle 1-39, $2.20
-Geelong QT -7.5, $1.90

TOTAL $7.94 X 0.5

Play #2 - West Coast +7.5 QT, $1.90 X 1


West Coast desperately need a win here against the hawks to keep in touch with the top 8. While getting a win is probably not a huge chance, it is likely that the eagles will come out fired up. As the hawks appear to be looking towards the end of the season, they are not coming out as fired up as some of their lesser opponents, whom need wins more desperately than the hawks. Expecting the eagles to just about win the first quarter, so more than a goal start is very tempting. 1 unit, and into my value play of the week.

The rest of the value appears to lie with the dockers and cats. In a round where all match lines are 4 goals or above, it will likely be the smallest round for betting, so value is important. Fremantle have been impressive this year, and their 6 games at home this year have averaged less than 161 points per match. With a kangaroos side capable of scoring some big scores, this one shouldn’t go over a 5 goal difference. The under is also a big lean here.

Meanwhile, the cats travel to the GABBA to take on Brisbane. The form of the lions is continually poor, and a side with a poor work rate like the lions is easily exposed by the cats side. The lions may contain this game later in the match, but expect the cats to come out of the blocks. Neither side with a whole heap to play for, so going with class in the first quarter.

[Gee]

Swannies at first glance look huge.

Played AAMI really well vs crows last game.

Tippet back.

Bias towards teams coming off the bye.

Port overvalued after smashing a horrible GWS team.

[johno35]

Swannies at first glance look huge.

Played AAMI really well vs crows last game.

Tippet back.

Bias towards teams coming off the bye.

Port overvalued after smashing a horrible GWS team.

Totally agree, that line will climb as the week goes on

[Coopertrooper]

I have been reluctant to take the swans when they give away 5 or more goals to anyone above the bottom 4-6, especially when playing away from home. Their record isn't too bad for this year, but I usually stay away from the swans. Their evenness can help them to systematically pull teams apart, or on a bad day it can make it hard to get back into gear without individuals stepping up.

[Crowing Capers]

just saw those lines and cannot believe Swans line so low..
Saw them first hand 2 weeks go v Crows, they were machines.
Line should be more like 40-42 for mine

[Gee]

I don't get the sudden turnaround in the unders, it seems to have started out of nowhere. I wonder how a) AFL teams will respond and b) how books will respond.

I haven't done the stats, but I don't think it has come out of nowhere. The change in the umpiring has been significant. It has allowed players to play better defensive footy without giving a free away. Also, less cheap free kicks resulting in goals.

[hedgejob]

Re Swans, 5-10mm predicted Fri. Poss shower Sat. All that might change bw now and then.

[Coopertrooper]

I haven't done the stats, but I don't think it has come out of nowhere. The change in the umpiring has been significant. It has allowed players to play better defensive footy without giving a free away. Also, less cheap free kicks resulting in goals.

Sharp post, but I'd say the change in umpiring definitions has been fairly swift and came out of nowhere themselves, particularly with the new rules being over-paid in the first few rounds, and now rarely being paid at all. Unless that has been a recurring theme from season to season, but I've not done the stats either.

[Gee]

Sharp post, but I'd say the change in umpiring definitions has been fairly swift and came out of nowhere themselves, particularly with the new rules being over-paid in the first few rounds, and now rarely being paid at all. Unless that has been a recurring theme from season to season, but I've not done the stats either.

At least in 2012, I'm pretty sure that the average scoring for the year stayed the same over the course of the season. I'm fairly confident it has generally been fairly even over the course of most seasons.

I just had a quick look at this season. After 6 rounds, teams were averaging 97ppg or 194 per game. That dropped to 95/190 by round 8 and its down to 93/186 now.

That means that the average team's scores per game between round 6 and present was only 89.8. I suspect if you took the GWS blow outs out, that total would be something like 87 or lower.

That is a ridiculous drop off.

Edit: yes, the changes to the umpiring did come out of nowhere. The way I read your post was that you couldn't understand why the low scores started happening - "I don't get the sudden turnaround in the unders"

[hedgejob]

NRL overs have also dropped off notably this season. Why both codes then?

[Coopertrooper]

At least in 2012, I'm pretty sure that the average scoring for the year stayed the same over the course of the season. I'm fairly confident it has generally been fairly even over the course of most seasons.

I just had a quick look at this season. After 6 rounds, teams were averaging 97ppg or 194 per game. That dropped to 95/190 by round 8 and its down to 93/186 now.

That means that the average team's scores per game between round 6 and present was only 89.8. I suspect if you took the GWS blow outs out, that total would be something like 87 or lower.

That is a ridiculous drop off.

Edit: yes, the changes to the umpiring did come out of nowhere. The way I read your post was that you couldn't understand why the low scores started happening - "I don't get the sudden turnaround in the unders"

My original statement was too ambiguous. The umpiring numbers have trended down and have been spoken about widely. But, potentially, there could be other factors? Off the top of my head I cannot think of what they could be. I would not have thought such a turnaround in the scoring would come from the umpiring alone. It could be worth looking at how lines have been set this year compared to last year. Their totals are not as sharp at the moment, and finding the keys as to why would provide excellent information on where value may lie in the next few weeks.

NRL overs have also dropped off notably this season. Why both codes then?

If it is both codes, it makes me think there must other factors at play. Books being off? Weather being worse?

[Gee]

My original statement was too ambiguous. The umpiring numbers have trended down and have been spoken about widely. But, potentially, there could be other factors? Off the top of my head I cannot think of what they could be. I would not have thought such a turnaround in the scoring would come from the umpiring alone. It could be worth looking at how lines have been set this year compared to last year. Their totals are not as sharp at the moment, and finding the keys as to why would provide excellent information on where value may lie in the next few weeks.

Agreed.

The only other factor that I can think of off the top of my head is a lot of the coaches must have hated the shoot outs (e.g. Malthouse cannot have liked Carlton giving up 100ppg in the first 3 weeks) and are placing a lot more focus on defensive structures - copying teams like Freo. I suppose it could also be fitness - teams able to run a lot harder defensively.

AFL totals have always been hit and miss. Books may not necessarily be off on AFL. They may just be keeping the totals high, because they are getting plenty of over money from punters not adjusting! I dunno. For some reason I always find myself betting fewer and fewer totals as the season progresses.

[Coopertrooper]

I've always bet on few totals. Things tend to get in the way on match day (working some Saturdays mainly) so I don't get to see most of the totals go up. Bet365 put up early totals, but you have to really like one, or else you can't really shop around. I also find it tough to get an angle on the majority of games for totals, I see it as a once a week type of bet where you can find a clear angle, otherwise stay out of it. At least for the AFL anyway.