I'm not sure on the tigers/bombers game. I can see the bombers diving with the players being individually questioned by ASADA, and last week was probably more than I was expecting. The tigers are too hit and miss to back, but backing against them on a shaky team in the bombers is going to be tough. GL to those who are game enough to try picking a side there!
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I like Tigers, Essendon has shown the last couComment -
I like Tigers, Essendon has shown the last couple of weeks that they are struggling to keep the intensity up like they have been doing in the first 5 rounds. The GWS game was the first sign of that, Tigers need to prove they are contenders and so far this year I think they have proved that on a couple of occasions, they should learn from the Geelong and Collongwood losses and have a big win Saturday nightComment -
I'll be tipping the tigers, but couldn't part any hard-earned on them, not just at the moment. I hadn't seen them play until they played us and I went to the game, but they looked fairly ordinary to me.
Hoping the pies get up tonight, but like last weekend I think the numbers are too sharp to play. The sportsbet money back special is interesting though, money back if your side gets within 20 points, up to $100. Might have a nibble on the pies with that special.Comment -
That is my thinking too.
Play #4 - Syd/Coll/Coll/Coll, $10.00 X 0.5
I'm expecting the swans to come out with a bit of fire tonight. I think they can grab a quarter time lead, and then Collingwood can get the lead back and hold it. A half unit interest for tonight's match
First game I'm going to in a while, haven't had a chance this month, will be good to see some live footy again!Comment -
Essendon are fuked, they are experiencing withdrawal symptoms and the worst kind of offield problems you could have. Pies look good to cover, if they don't at least beat Sydney, there is something wrong with them.Comment -
Enjoy the game mate and good luckComment -
Do not go against Essendon tonight
Although I hope Richmond smash them, no bet for me.Comment -
Will update at the end of the round when I'm at a computer.
The pies were just pathetic, the saints hurt me after somehow losing to the dogs, and the big play is at risk with the blues giving up a big lead against the lowly lions. Last quarters have killed me this year, hopefully the blues change that or I'm going to be well into the red. Don't know why but Carlton have won or lost just about every time I've been on the wrong team in their games, they've been my killer side this year.Comment -
Round 9: 1-3 +1.85 units
Was very disappointed with the selfishness of the team on Friday, while the saints losing was a big shock, especially with the changes the dogs had to make. Probably should have listened to my own advice and taken the line, not the 1-39. Would have helped to cash the value play as well, but regardless, the saints should have been better than that.
YTD: 24-45 +3.23 units
Units risked: 88.5
ROI: +3.65%
My original target of 15 units is definitely within reach, which would probably result in an ROI of around 7.5%. The numbers may not look that convincing, however, I was over 10 units down after 2 rounds. The year is starting to become stable, so this should be a good time to be picky with plays and extract as much profit as possible.Comment -
ROUND 10 LINES:
Brisbane +20.5 / Collingwood -20.5
Carlton -80.5 / GWS +80.5
Adelaide -5.5 / Fremantle +5.5
Sydney -13.5 / Essendon +13.5
Western Bulldogs +9.5 / Port Adealide -9.5
Geelong -59.5 / Gold Coast +59.5
Melbourne +90.5 / Hawthorn -90.5
North Melbourne -26.5 / St Kilda +26.5
West Coast -23.5 / Richmond +23.5Comment -
Play #1 - Sydney QT -3.5, $1.90 X 2
The swans are a consistent team, and they know they need to come out again with some pep in their step, especially after a 5 minute nap against the pies. Expecting this to be excellent value, so playing it for 2 units
Play #2 Parlay:
-Collingwood 1-39, $2.20
-GWS +76.5, $2.10
-Sydney 1-39, $2.20
-North Melbourne 1-39, $2.25
TOTAL: $22.87 X 0.5
My value play for week 10, with quite big odds here. The pies struggle at the Gabba, but they will surely be too desperate to lose this one. Carlton have not been able to put sides away, so I'm expecting GWS to have a 20 minute patch which should put this line out of reach. The swans should overcome the bombers, and the roos will hopefully hold onto a game!Comment -
Not too many line movements so far, except for the lions moving to +28.5 with Leuenberger/Rockliff injured and Brown suspended early in the week. With Witts and Russell out for the pies, this line could go even further
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Play #3 - Western Bulldogs 1-39, $3.20 X 1
The doggies have lost Boyd, which is a big blow. However, they are coming up against the power, who have lost their way. After some huge comebacks early in the year, the power have lost 4 in a row, and are playing some ordinary football. The turn-around has been swift. Meanwhile, the dogs had just their second victory last week, finally capitalising on their good form (and pissing me off by killing my bets against them, after being let down by them a few times this year haha). The doggies have had a good record at TIO stadium (have played 4 games there since 2008, having won all 4 (3 against Port Adealide, 1 against the Gold Coast). Going with the doggies to win up in NT again, 1 unit play
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Rumours that Cloke will be a late out for Collingwood with gastro, was supposedly up all night. Witts or Sinclair (both have struggled at AFL level) have are the possible replacements, so that explains the line coming back a couple of points to 28.5Comment -
Round 10: 0-1 -0.5 units
Play #4 - GWS +80.5, $2.10 X 1
Carlton have been struggling to put the poorer sides away this year, with recent wins against Melbourne and Brisbane not being impressive. GWS have been struggling to get much out of this season, and keeping losses as low as possible will continue to be the focus. 1 unit play here
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GWS look like they will lose by 100+ at the moment. They were the better side in the first quarter, yet lost it by about 4 goals, and are now getting tired. They have a very long way to go the giants...Comment -
Play #5 - North Melbourne 1-39, $2.40 X 1
Play #6 - North Melbourne -6.5 QT, $1.87 (LUXBET) X 1
After some heartbreaking losses, north should be too good for the saints. St Kilda have continued to keep games fairly tight, and unless north get out to a big early lead they should feel some nerves at some stage, stopping this from being a 40+ win. The roos wil certainly want to come out and make a statement, and this -6.5 QT line is much better than sportsbet, who are offering $1.77 at -7.5, so there is obviously some strong money for the roos to make a good start. Hopefully they start well enough and are pulled back in a little bit, 1 unit on both
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Round 10: 3-3 +2.37 units
Roos had a crazy start, and they kept their 55 point lead (and even grew it a bit) after that.
Play #7 - West Coast -27.5, $2.10 X 1
West Coast are starting to get their game flowing, with a strong midfield capable of taking down the tigers midfield, and a forwardline that will seriously test the tigers defence. Richmond have had patchy form, without taking down any big scalps, and they will find a trip to the west tough. 1 unit play to finish off round 10
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West Coast get thumped at home, out of nowhere. Their midfield was hopeless, a total shock!
Round 10: 3-4 +1.37 units
Another positive round, but could have been better if West Coast had turned up! But not to be.
YTD: 27-49 +4.60 units
Units risked: 96
ROI: +4.79%
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Forgot to do the lines last night, so here they are:
ROUND 11 (TUESDAY) LINES:
Essendon -3.5 / Carlton +3.5
GWS +88.5 / Geelong -88.5
Adelaide +10.5 / Sydney -10.5
Gold Coast +18.5 / North Melbourne -18.5
St Kilda +19.5 / West Coast -19.5
Melbourne +75.5 / Collingwood -75.5Comment -
I didn't see spreads yesterday morning, only MLs and also forgot to look last night.
North -18.5 looks good. I've been on the Suns the last 6 games where they have gone 5-1 ATS, but I think the bubble bursts badly this week.Comment -
I agree. I've been on the gold coast with some silly lines in the past 6 weeks, but this one looks like it has gone too far the other way.Comment -
Cooper, find teams who had less than 40% goal conversion rate and look at the % of which teams cover ATS the following week...
You didnt get that from me
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I shall have a look into it, cheers Coochy.Comment -
Round 11
Play # 1 - Parlay:
-Essendon 1-39, $2.45
-GWS +84.5, $2.10
Total $5.15 X 0.5
Play # 2 - Essendon 1-39, $2.45 X 1
The bombers have been a bit flakey of late, while the blues finally put together a convincing win. Both sides go into this match knowing a lot is at stake, and I expect the bombers to come out of it the victors. The blues are still yet to beat a team of note, while their improved competitiveness is likely to keep this game fairly close. Playing them for a unit, and having them in a double with GWS to cover the line. Geelong had a big last quarter against the suns, but have shown their potential to just do enough to win games. GWS playing at home should be able to score enough to keep this one to about 60 points.Comment -
Play #3 - Essendon -0.5 QT, $1.90 x 1
Play #4 - Essendon -1.5 HT, $1.90 X 1
Liking the bombers to get a good start tomorrow night, I think the only question is whether they can run the game out. Essendon need to come out and win the first half, and expecting them to start it with a big opening quarter. They cannot afford to let the blues get a lead, as their 'mosquito fleet' are capable of running over the top of the bombers defence. Carlton to win the second half is also a lean for me, but will keep it to these plays, along with my first 2. 1 unit on both
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Play #5 - GWS +81.5, $2.10 X 2
I really like GWS to cover here, so playing it in a single too. As above, I'm expecting a 60 point win for the cats, with GWS being able to put 10 goals on the board. Expecting this to be a game which does not have a big blow-out in a quarter.Comment