Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 6 OPENING LINES:

Collingwood -31.5 / St Kilda +31.5
Essednon -85.5 / GWS +85.5
North Melbourne -15.5 / Port Adealide +15.5
Adelaide +22.5 / Hawthorn -22.5
Richmond +18.5 / Geelong -18.5
Gold Coast +19.5 / Fremantle -19.5
Sydney -41.5 / Brisbane +41.5
Carlton -55.5 / Melbourne +55.5
West Coast -45.5 / Western Bulldogs +45.5

Interesting that within seconds of the lines coming out the hawks drifted from 1.22 to 1.25

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 6

Play #1 - Collingwood -7.5 QT, $1.90 X 1

As with my previous QT line plays, the pies need to get the jump here after a poor month of football. The return of Jolly will help immensely, while the saints don't look like they have too much to give this year. 1 unit play.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 Parlay:

-QT Collingwood -7.5, $1.90
-Essendon QT lead 17-24, $4.60
-North Melbourne 1-39, $2.25
-Hawthorn ML, $1.22

Total: $23.99 X 0.5

My value play for the week. Like the pies to start well, the roos to win without killing port, the hawks to win, with essendon winning the first quarter by between 17 and 24 points. I'm not sure I can even explain why I like this play, but I feel that they should be up by more than 3 goals, but that they won't get to 4, and sure enough there is a market for it. Just a 0.5 unit interest.

[brettels]

Is it a trend every anzac round , every year that the underdogs mainly cover the line?

[Coopertrooper]

Is it a trend every anzac round , every year that the underdogs mainly cover the line?

2013: 7-2, +5 underdogs
2012: 5-4, +1 underdogs
2011: 5-2, +3 underdogs
2010: 5-3, +2 underdogs

This year blew it out, but it seems like a bit of a trend there.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - GWS +83.5, $2.10 X 2

I feel like the line is unfair to the giants. This game has the feel of being a 50-60 point win for the bombers, who are still missing some key players. The giants should be able to score 11 or 12 goals, which would enable the bombers to still amass a large score of 20-22 goals and keep this line fairly safe. I'm expecting the giants to show some fight in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and will hopefully be close enough that they won't have yet another last quarter fadeout. They can't just continue to fade away in every single last quarter, so taking sides to run away with the game every week isn't a wise choice. 2 unit play

[Coopertrooper]

Line moves have been against me this week. Pies QT line is now at -5.5, and GWS is out to +86.5 for the $2.10 bet. I'm not hugely surprised by the pies line move, although I am surprised at the amount of money coming for a massive bombers win.

[Puda]

UNder or 1-39 ?? ponder ponder

[Coopertrooper]

UNder or 1-39 ?? ponder ponder

For tonight? 201.5 now being available is a more tempting line (albeit at $1.88). I'd probably go for it before I'd take pies 1-39, but that is only a lean, I won't be playing either market.

[Puda]

I like both.. Will consider .. thanks.

[Coopertrooper]

I just saw another interesting promotion from Betfair. Each week in both AFL and NRL they choose 2 teams head to head, that in a double would be at about $2.50 odds, and offer $5 odds up to a $20 bet.

This week they have both Fremantle and Carlton (and manly/Broncos), who will both go around at about $1.50. It is interesting just how willing they are to lay both teams, will be something worth watching over.

As an interest, I'll try and keep track of how these go. Last week the AFL play held on, with the dockers scraping home.

BETFAIR PLAYS: 1-0

This week you can get $5 on Collingwood -24.5/Geelong H2H

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Collingwood -7.5 QT, $1.90 X 1 LOSS

Play #2 Parlay:

-QT Collingwood -7.5, $1.90
-Essendon QT lead 17-24, $4.60
-North Melbourne 1-39, $2.25
-Hawthorn ML, $1.22

Total: $23.99 X 0.5 LOSS

What a killer! I felt we were a 3 goal better side in that first quarter, only to have the QT line miss with the last score of the quarter. That's the way it goes sometimes!

Round 6: 0-2 -1.5 units


Another Betfair play well on the way to cashing too. They've been fairly sharp with the plays, but they keep scraping in

[Coopertrooper]

UNder or 1-39 ?? ponder ponder

I like both.. Will consider .. thanks.

Nice hit on those 2!

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - North Melbourne 1-39, $2.25 X 1

North go into this game as favourites, while port go in undefeated. The power are starting to show that while they're on a good run, they are still only a middle of the table side, and should give the roos an edge here. The roos need to win this game, and don't underestimate the Hinkley factor. Not having your coach in the box and on the ground changes the dynamic, which should only make it tougher for port. 1 unit play.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - GWS +83.5, $2.10 X 2 WON

Play #4 - North Melbourne 1-39, $2.25 X 1 WON

Some good cashes today, GWS turned up early as I hoped, while the roos held on against the power.

Round 6: 2-2 +1.95 units

[Coopertrooper]

Play #5 - Geelong 1-39, $2.25 X 1

Richmond will be hurting after a couple of losses in a row, while the cats are looking very good this year. Shouldn't be a blowout, and expecting the cats to win. Seems the obvious play, will stick with 1 unit

[hedgejob]

29 over, 22 under

Under has really taken off this round: 1 over, 5 under (a lot of them not even close to going over).

[Coopertrooper]

Play #5 - Geelong 1-39, $2.25 X 1 LOSS

Round 6: 2-3 +0.95 units

The cats ended up being a bit too strong, brining the tigers back down to Earth with a thud, going from 3-0 to 3-3, while the cats remain undefeated.

29 over, 22 under

Under has really taken off this round: 1 over, 5 under (a lot of them not even close to going over).

Surprising how low scoring a few of the games have been. A strong focus on defending after such big scores in the April.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #6 - Sydney 40-59, $4.20 X 1

Play #7 - Parlay:
-Sydney 40-59, $4.20
-West Coast 40-59, $4.20

Total: $17.64 X 0.5

All Sunday games look to have obvious results, so there is some value about trying to pick the margin. Getting $4.20 about the swans between 40-59 is one of the best value bets I have seen this year. They don't win too many games by over 10 goals, but they will ensure they win this game comfortably. Rolling with 1 unit, and throwing half a unit into a double with West Coast in the same bracket. Will hopefully end the week in positive territory

[Coopertrooper]

Play #6 - Sydney 40-59, $4.20 X 1 LOSS

Play #7 - Parlay:
-Sydney 40-59, $4.20
-West Coast 40-59, $4.20

Total: $17.64 X 0.5 LOSS

Round 6: 2-4 -0.55 units

Getting sick of the bad beats this year. Swans kick a point after the siren for that to miss by a point. It is becoming a joke at the moment! Frustrating.

[Coopertrooper]

The eagles play ends up missing as the dogs miss a late shot anyway.

Round 6: 2-5 -0.55 units
YTD: 19-33 +3.72 units

An unlucky week with 2 bets missing at the death, and another missing by less than a goal also. Just have to wait for luck to swing back, hopefully next week! Good to come out of an unlucky run losing less than a unit for the weekend, keeping the year in profit thus far.

[hedgejob]

30 over, 24 under

R6: 2 over, 7 under
R5: 4 over, 5 under
R4: 3 over, 6 under
After round 4 when books upped the totals 9 over, 18 under

[Coopertrooper]

30 over, 24 under

R6: 2 over, 7 under
R5: 4 over, 5 under
R4: 3 over, 6 under
After round 4 when books upped the totals 9 over, 18 under

I saw some of the Saturday lines that were posted in the evening after work. They were seriously putting up 200 in a lot of games? That is just giving away cash!

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 7 OPENING LINES:

Geelong -7.5 / Essendon +7.5
Port Adelaide -9.5 / Richmond +9.5
Brisbane +27.5 / West Coast -27.5
Western Bulldogs +36.5 / North Melbourne -36.5
Hawthorn -9.5 / Sydney +9.5
Fremantle +5.5 / Collingwood -5.5
GWS +43.5 / Adelaide -43.5
Melbourne -2.5 / Gold Coast +2.5
St Kilda +22.5 / Carlton -22.5

[Puda]

ROUND 7 OPENING LINES:

Geelong -7.5 / Essendon +7.5
Port Adelaide -9.5 / Richmond +9.5
Brisbane +27.5 / West Coast -27.5
Western Bulldogs +36.5 / North Melbourne -36.5
Hawthorn -9.5 / Sydney +9.5
Fremantle +5.5 / Collingwood -5.5
GWS +43.5 / Adelaide -43.5
Melbourne -2.5 / Gold Coast +2.5
St Kilda +22.5 / Carlton -22.5

look tempting

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Parlay
-Geelong 1-39, $2.35
-West Coast -31.5, $2.10
-Gold Coast H2H, $1.98
-Adealide -47.5, $2.10

Total: 20.52 X 0.5

Value play for the week. The Friday night thriller should be fairly close, and I like the cats there. Brisbane have looked hopeless, the west Coast line should be pounded this week. Gold Coast are playing with better form than the dees, not sure why they aren't favourites yet, expecting that to get pounded too. And I like Adelaide to kill GWS to round the week out. they showed some fight, but still couldn't run the game out, and the crows will be looking for a big win here.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - Parlay
-West Coast -31.5, $2.10
-Gold Coast H2H, $1.98

Total: $4.16 X 1

These look like 2 stand out plays in my eyes. West Coast are starting to get some form, and the lions have been pathetic this year. Pressure on Voss, expecting the lions to crack and a big blowout here. Meanwhile, the suns will likely go into this game as favourites by the time play begins, their form has been reasonable. Ablett loves tearing up the bottom sides, and the dees have looked fairly ordinary. 1 quarter against GWS won them the game, but the suns won't be a pushover late in the game like the giants. 1 unit on the double

[hedgejob]

Favorites are covering lines so far. Only 2 rounds did dogs shine. I would discount R1 because it's always unpredictable so in fact dogs produced 1 winning round only.

R6: 6 out of 9 favorites covered.
R5: 7 out of 9 dogs covered.
R4: 5 out of 9 favorites covered.
R3: 6 out of 9 favorites covered.
R2: 7 out of 9 favorites covered.
R1: 7 out of 9 dogs covered.

[Coopertrooper]

Favorites are covering lines so far. Only 2 rounds did dogs shine. I would discount R1 because it's always unpredictable so in fact dogs produced 1 winning round only.

R6: 6 out of 9 favorites covered.
R5: 7 out of 9 dogs covered.
R4: 5 out of 9 favorites covered.
R3: 6 out of 9 favorites covered.
R2: 7 out of 9 favorites covered.
R1: 7 out of 9 dogs covered.

The pattern seems fairly consistent with previous years too. You normally have a weird round 1, and then the lines are all fairly small early in the year. After about round 4 they start to adjust, and even out to about 4-6 favourites covering each week.

[Domestic]

Appreciate you posting the opening lines mate.

[Coopertrooper]

Appreciate you posting the opening lines mate.

No worries! Will try and do them every week, as early on the Monday as I can.

[DHB]

geelong now -8.5 jumping on it before it drifts further.

thanks 4 posting lines mate.

[Coopertrooper]

geelong now -8.5 jumping on it before it drifts further.

thanks 4 posting lines mate.

No problem. The cats game is an interesting one. I don't expect too much of a line movement, and I like the cats to win the match too. Will be interesting to see how the game plays out.

[Gee]

Yeah, this Cats line isn't going anywhere I don't think, unless there are some big announcements on Thursday.

If anything, sharps may be on the Bombers. They should have Hurley, Ryder, Carlisle, Fletcher, Heppel and Winderlich back.

Tough round this one though. I doubt I'll be playing much.

[Coopertrooper]

Gee, there are certainly some tough games coming up. There are 3-4 games I probably won't touch, but there are some good plays this week still. Although, I should have played the West Coast and Adelaide lines earlier if I wanted them in singles and not a multiple. The Gold Coast are still at juicy odds, I'm a big lean on them this week at the moment.