Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread

[Gee]

Yeah, some big moves.

Eagles line still not too bad if you like it. North and Crows lines are probably unplayable now.

I can't take either GC or Melb, but will look at the over if its about 190.

Port 2H if u get a better line than the FG spread and Carlton look to be my only plays so far.

[Coopertrooper]

Yeah, some big moves.

Eagles line still not too bad if you like it. North and Crows lines are probably unplayable now.

I can't take either GC or Melb, but will look at the over if its about 190.

Port 2H if u get a better line than the FG spread and Carlton look to be my only plays so far.

I still struggle to trust port. I don't think many will play the suns/blues game, early tips so far have 2/3 of them going to the suns though, very interesting. I doubt many are willing to put money on that game, so probably won't be many movements.

Play #3 - West Coast -33.5, $2.10 X 2

As mentioned before, I liked the eagles here against the struggling lions. The line is back to a reasonable number, so taking the extra 4 points still looks okay to me. 2 unit play

[Puda]

I like the Dons tonight. .. But not worth the risk. . Gl no bet tonight

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Geelong 1-19, $4.30 X 0.5

Was considering taking Geelong 1-39, but that has been slammed into $2.15, despite the line moving from -8.5 to -6.5. You can get better odds backing the 1-19 and 20-39 margins. I settled with just 1-19 as an interest. I'm expecting a close game with the cats being a little too good.

[Coopertrooper]

As an interest, I'll try and keep track of how these go. Last week the AFL play held on, with the dockers scraping home.

This week you can get $5 on Collingwood -24.5/Geelong H2H

BETFAIR PLAYS: 2-0

This week the play is Geelong/Collingwood. I think both teams will pick up a win here, so the $5 is good value. Not as good as the previous 2, but still good value.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #5 - Geelong/Essendon Under 207.5, $1.88 X 1

I'm expecting a little bit of early nerves to keep the early play low-scoring. Despite both sides attacking well this year, they have been solid defensively, and this is quite a high number, even for Etihad. Rolling with 1 unit on the under

GL to everyone having a go tonight!

[Gee]

I still struggle to trust port. I don't think many will play the suns/blues game, early tips so far have 2/3 of them going to the suns though, very interesting. I doubt many are willing to put money on that game, so probably won't be many movements.

Play #3 - West Coast -33.5, $2.10 X 2

As mentioned before, I liked the eagles here against the struggling lions. The line is back to a reasonable number, so taking the extra 4 points still looks okay to me. 2 unit play

So, do I, but they are 6 - 0 ATS on 2Hs this season. As long as the line is reasonable, I'll be on them. Tigers 2Hs this year have been pretty poor too - faded vs Cats, Dockers (although it was close, they were getting outplayed very badly), Pies and at the end of the Blues game.

I may even bet Tigers 1H on the strength of their 1H form!

[hedgejob]

Another 200+ total, another under. This is almost becoming an auto play.

[Puda]

Game should of gone over easy. .. But kicking 1.13 doesn't help

[Coopertrooper]

Will update record when I'm next near my computer and not using my phone.

Play #6 - western bulldogs QT +8.5, $1.90 X 1

The dogs had a terrible start to last weeks game, don't expect the same here. The Roos like to grind away, so I think the dogs will keep this tight early, 1 unit play.

[Coopertrooper]

Frustrating week, with west coast somehow playing just crap enough to miss the line I played, and the dogs starting well yet somehow losing the first quarter by 10 points. Will probably update my record tonight when I'm back home.

Play #7 - gold coast QT -1.5, $1.90 X 1

The gold coast need to get the jump in this game, they need to start improving and Melbourne are the easy kill of the competition at the moment.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Parlay
-Geelong 1-39, $2.35
-West Coast -31.5, $2.10
-Gold Coast H2H, $1.98
-Adealide -47.5, $2.10

Total: 20.52 X 0.5 LOSS

Play #2 - Parlay
-West Coast -31.5, $2.10
-Gold Coast H2H, $1.98

Total: $4.16 X 1 LOSS

Play #3 - West Coast -33.5, $2.10 X 2 LOSS

Play #4 - Geelong 1-19, $4.30 X 0.5 LOSS

Play #5 - Geelong/Essendon Under 207.5, $1.88 X 1 WON

Play #6 - western bulldogs QT +8.5, $1.90 X 1 LOSS

Play #7 - gold coast QT -1.5, $1.90 X 1 WON

Round 7: 2-5 -3.22 units

Painful week, with the Eagles somehow not doing enough with a shocking display, resulting in what will likely be a 20+ unit turnaround, killing the value play. Ouch, ouch, ouch.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #8 - Carlton 20-39, $4.40 X 1

Play #9 - Carlton/St Kilda Under 195.5, $1.88 X 1

I like the blues tonight. The saints are still a fairly dour side, who bring the quality of games down. It should get to about 180 points in my books, with about a 105-75 type of scoreline. Carlton get back Kreuzer, which is in a huge in, while the saints lose Gilbert and Kosi (hmm maybe that is a positive for the saints ). Carlton are the better side, and the saints are already starting to show signs of giving in this season. The talk has moved to 'development', and the blues need to string together some good wins. Hoping for these to be some solid plays for tonight

[Coopertrooper]

Play #8 - Carlton 20-39, $4.40 X 1 LOSS

Play #9 - Carlton/St Kilda Under 195.5, $1.88 X 1 WON

Round 7: 3-6 -3.34 units
YTD: 22-39 +0.38 units

Some tough results over the last fortnight have resulted in poor results instead of being a huge fortnight, just need the luck to turn back in a few plays to get the ball rolling again. Remain in positive territory thus far, hopefully will snap this streak next week.

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 8 LATE MONDAY LINES:

(These are probably not the openning lines, but was focused on the Monday night match and not the lines until now)

West Coast -18.5 / North Melbourne +18.5
Essendon -50.5 / Brisbane +50.5
Hawthorn -90.5 / GWS +90.5
Gold Coast -11.5 / Western Bulldogs +11.5
Sydney -16.5 / Fremantle +16.5
Collingwood +14.5 / Geelong -14.5
Carlton -18.5 / Port Adelaide +18.5
Richmond -70.5 / Melbourne +70.5
Adelaide -20.5 / St Kilda +20.5

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 Parlay:
-West Coast 1-39, $2.20
-Western Bulldogs 1-39, $3.10
-Sydney H2H, $1.42
-Carlton -22.5, $2.10

Total: $20.34 X 0.5

Getting onto my value play early again. I really like the eagles 1-39 here. At home, against a competitive roos outfit, the match should be tight, with West Coast being a little too strong up forward. The suns have hit good form, but the dogs aren't hopeless, and I think the dogs will be out to prove a point. Sydney should be too strong at home against the dockers, while port look to have slipped back to their 2011-2012 form last week, with the blues likely being too good for the power at home.

[DHB]

awesome
cant wait 4 round 8.
good luck dude!

[Coopertrooper]

You too DHB!

Play #2 - West Coast 1-39, $2.25 X 2

The eagles are starting to get thing back on track, without being fantastic. Nic Nat is starting to get back into it, and LeCras looks to be settling with his arm. The roos have been playing some good football, and will put up a fight away from home. 2 unit play to start off the round

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - West Coast 1-39, $2.25 X 2 WON

Well, they certainly took their time reeling north in!! Lucky start to the week, hopefully it will continue that way!) Oh, and Naitanui, what a freak!

Round 8: 1-0 +2.5 units

[Coopertrooper]

Tough day tomorrow, so will go fairly light:

Play #3 - Western Bulldogs 1-39, $3.10 X 0.5

Play #4 - Parlay:
-Western Bulldogs 1-39, $3.10
-Sydney 1-39, $2.10

Total $6.51 X 0.5

The bulldogs form hasn't been that bad this year, while the gold coast have had 2 easy kills (GWS and Melbourne), and a win over St Kilda, who in turn have only defeated GWS and an injury-depleted Carlton. Their form is a bit mis-leading, and they should not be favourites here. The dogs have the more experienced bodies, and are terrific value here. The swans have been just doing enough in their games, and I suspect they will do the same against Fremantle, with the home ground factor being enough for it to feel like a solid play. Half a unit on each, just risking 1 unit for the day along with the pending parlay. GL to all of your plays tomorrow

[DHB]

nice win mate, bet u were sweating last few mins of that game.
awesome match.

i agree with ya on the bulldogs got them @+10.5 should win outright though.

[hedgejob]

5 out of 6 under so far this round

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 Parlay:
-West Coast 1-39, $2.20
-Western Bulldogs 1-39, $3.10
-Sydney H2H, $1.42
-Carlton -22.5, $2.10

Total: $20.34 X 0.5 LOSS

Tough day tomorrow, so will go fairly light:

Play #3 - Western Bulldogs 1-39, $3.10X 0.5 LOSS

Play #4 - Parlay:
-Western Bulldogs 1-39, $3.10
-Sydney 1-39, $2.10

Total $6.51 X 0.5 LOSS

Round 8: 1-3 +1 units


Have been unable to post any plays from my phone this weekend, my phone wouldn't let me. Probably for the best, as I jumped on Carlton -19.5 @ $2.10, and was watching the score updates, which gave the final score as 23 points. Driving home 30 minutes later, the radio commentators of the other game confirmed that it had been cleared up and was a 23 point margin. Then I get home and everything has changed to 18 points, with the AFL having supposedly mucked up BOTH teams scores (someone will be fired for sure).

Whether it was the right score or not, pretty disappointing to get home after thinking you've cashed a winner, only to find out you've lost. Not good enough from the AFL.

[Coopertrooper]

YTD: 23-42 +1.38 units

A good week not to have many plays, with a few underdogs getting up, and the swans/dockers playing out a draw!

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 9 LINES:

Collingwood -8.5 / Sydney +8.5
Port Adelaide +32.5 / Geelong -32.5
GWS +70.5 / West coast -70.5
St Kilda -28.5 / Western Bulldogs +28.5
Brisbane +16.5/ Carlton -16.5
Richmond +4.5 / Essendon -4.5
Hawthorn -66.5 / Gold Coast +66.5
North Melbourne -14.5 / Adelaide +14.5
Fremantle -62.5 / Melbourne +62.5

[Puda]

ROUND 9 LINES:

Collingwood -8.5 / Sydney +8.5
Port Adelaide +32.5 / Geelong -32.5
GWS +70.5 / West coast -70.5
St Kilda -28.5 / Western Bulldogs +28.5
Brisbane +16.5/ Carlton -16.5
Richmond +4.5 / Essendon -4.5
Hawthorn -66.5 / Gold Coast +66.5
North Melbourne -14.5 / Adelaide +14.5
Fremantle -62.5 / Melbourne +62.5

peepz will pepper that line

[brettels]

Essendon will win, the have more abos for the abo round and afl will fix it

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 Parlay:
-Geelong QT -6.5, $1.90
-St kilda 1-39, $2.25
-Carlton H2H, $1.45

Total: $6.20 X 1

Jumping on where I see some value this week. The cats should bounce back this week against a now struggling Port Adelaide. St Kilda are up against the hapless dogs, but the dogs need to fire up this week. The saints play a low-scoring brand of football as it is, so this one shouldn't be a blowout, the line looks sharp. Carlton are playing Brisbane after their huge upset win over the bombers, and the blues shock loss to St kilda. Don't expect Carlton to lose this one.

[Coopertrooper]

NON-OFFICIAL PLAY:

Foxtel Cup 21/5: Norwood -23.5, $2.10

Norwood should be the better side here, and at home, with east Freo coming across fairly late for a mid-week game. Despite rain being around this is great value!

[Coopertrooper]

NON-OFFICIAL PLAY:

Foxtel Cup 21/5: Norwood -23.5, $2.10

Norwood should be the better side here, and at home, with east Freo coming across fairly late for a mid-week game. Despite rain being around this is great value!

Didn't watch the full game, but Norwood just didn't look interested at all in the parts I saw, it was a terrible quality game with the rain!

[Coopertrooper]

I'm going to start including the units risked for the year and the ROI for the year, as I feel it is a more accurate reflection of how well you're going (it stops a heap of crazy plays from spiking the numbers too much).

YTD: 23-42 +1.38 units

Units risked: 81

ROI: 1.70%

[sando]

NON-OFFICIAL PLAY:

Foxtel Cup 21/5: Norwood -23.5, $2.10

Norwood should be the better side here, and at home, with east Freo coming across fairly late for a mid-week game. Despite rain being around this is great value!

Yeah I watched the game for a bit, could not believe the stadium was completely empty, never seen anything like it. Norwood looked great for the 1st quarter and a bit and then I think they kicked something like 1.8 for the rest of the match. Was just horrible. Would rather watch GWS play the D's.

[Coopertrooper]

Yeah I watched the game for a bit, could not believe the stadium was completely empty, never seen anything like it. Norwood looked great for the 1st quarter and a bit and then I think they kicked something like 1.8 for the rest of the match. Was just horrible. Would rather watch GWS play the D's.

I didn't watch after 3/4 time, it was really that painful to watch! The crowd sounded a little better in the effects mic, maybe the main stand with cover had a few more in it? It did look pretty bad on that outer wing though, I think I spotted 2 people out there.

[Puda]

Essendon will win, the have more abos for the abo round and afl will fix it

smashing Dons. Richmon are top 8 pretends.

[Coopertrooper]

Will try to keep my number of plays to a minimum this week, with a tough weekend coming up. Will also be trying something a little different with a big play.

Play #2 - St Kilda 1-39, $2.25 X 1

Despite the dogs now being 1-18 from their last 19 games, their form hasn't been all that bad (except for last week, with a poor fadeout to the suns, who are looking good). St Kilda should be better than the dogs, in what is possibly a bottom 4 clash. The line looks wrong to me at 28.5, I think that is too high. Going with 1 unit.

Play #3 - Parlay:
-Geelong H2H, $1.15
-Western Bulldogs +66.5, $1.12
-Carlton H2H, $1.45

Total: $1.87 X 5

My second big play for the year. I think the cast simply get it done, and have taken an extra safe line in the dogs game. This helps to give some value to this play, along with the main bet, Carlton. Brisbane may have picked up a win last week, but don't expect them to come out and be that bubbly again. The blues need to get back on track, and need to come home with the points. Despite it being at the Gabba, I like the look of this play, and am happy to throw it in as my second big play with 5 units. GL this weekend all, it looks like being a tough one