Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Hawthorn 1-39, $2.20 X 1

As I mentioned before, I expect West Coast to get off to a good start in this match, but the hawks should be too good. West coast have some big ins (Glass, Waters, Kennedy, LeCras). Waters and Glass are of particular importance here, as they are the keys in stopping Hawthorn blowing this game out. Hawthorn are clearly the better side, who should still get the job done.

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I found this article from afl.com.au interesting: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-06-21/the-fast-starters

It is fairly compelling for people looking at live betting on AFL games late in the piece. The first team to 100 wins at a staggering percentage over the past decade (especially given how many times both teams can score over 100 in a game).

[Coopertrooper]

Despite hawthorn's accurate start (and amazing conversion rate for inside 50's), West Coast cover the QT line comfortably. They won the quarter too, should have had some on it after I wrote up that I thought they could win the quarter! Hopefully they stick in their and get within 39, the hawks starting to get on top in the 2nd quarter.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2 - West Coast +7.5 QT, $1.90 X 1 WON

Play #3 - Hawthorn 1-39, $2.20 X 1 WON

Round 13: 2-0 (1 pending) +2.10 units

Good start to the weekend with the eagles getting off to a flyer and then stopping the game from blowing out.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Richmond -39.5, $1.92 X 1

The tigers go into this match with some belief and an eye towards solidifying a spot in the top 8. The bulldogs form has been reasonable, but they struggle to reproduce it for long enough. The tigers looking for a day out here, and the 6 v 7 day break also plays in the tigers favour this year off this year's numbers. 1 unit play

[DHB]

great start mate.
what a high scoring, accurate kicking game.

[sando]

Round 13: 2-0 (1 pending) +2.10 units

Good start to the weekend with the eagles getting off to a flyer and then stopping the game from blowing out.

Very nice! Had similar plays & with you on the Tigers today...

[Coopertrooper]

Cheers DHB and sando!

Was at work today, but looks like I missed one of the easiest under bets of all time with the port/swans game being played in an Olympic Swimming pool! Happy that I kept away from the swans:

Their evenness can help them to systematically pull teams apart, or on a bad day it can make it hard to get back into gear without individuals stepping up.

I always stick by that when betting on them. They are good to cover against bottom 4 or 6 teams, but too big of a risk for teams above that most of the time.

The tigers should be raring to go here, hopefully it can push the tally to 3-0 for the week.

[hedgejob]

R13: 3 under 1 over

[Coopertrooper]

Will clean this record up when I can get to a computer that half works. But went 4-0 with the value play cashing as well, big weekend for me picking up over 6 units of profit from an outlay of just 3.5 units. Was busy for most of the weekend, would have loved to have had something on my only other original lean for the week (freo/roos under) which went on to easily cash, but can't be too greedy!

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Parlay:
-West Coast QT +7.5, $1.90
-Fremantle 1-39, $2.20
-Geelong QT -7.5, $1.90

TOTAL $7.94 X 0.5 WON

Play #4 - Richmond -39.5, $1.92 X 1 WON

Round 13: 4-0 +6.49 units

A clean sweep goes a long way to building the bank up

YTD: 37-56 +14.42 units

Units risked: 113.5
ROI: +12.70%

Quarter Time bets continue to offer great value this year. Back to 9 games next weekend, so need to make sure not to go over board with bets, with a greater range of games offering plenty of value again.

[DHB]

excellent round cooper, well done mate!

[Coopertrooper]

Thanks DHB! Turning into a nice season at the moment.

ROUND 14 LINES:

West Coast -2.5 / Essendon +2.5
Sydney -20.5 / Carlton +20.5
Gold Coast +6.5 / Adelaide -6.5
Port Adelaide +20.5 / Collingwood -20.5
Geelong -14.5 / Fremantle +14.5
Melbourne +30.5 / Western bulldogs -30.5
Hawthorn -45.5 / Brisbane +45.5
North melbourne -70.5 / GWS +70.5
Richmond -26.5 / St kilda +26.5

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 14

Play #1 - Parlay:
-Sydney -24.5, $2.10
-Collingwood -24.5, $2.10
-St Kilda +22.5, $2.10

TOTAL: $9.26 X 0.5

Play #2 - Sydney -24.5, $2.10 X 1

Play #3 - Sydney QT -4.5, $1.90 X 1

I really like Sydney to bounce back here. They get to play at home against Carlton, who look to have quite a few problems at the moment. Carlton need to win to break into the top 8, and the swans need to win or put a top 4 spot at serious risk. The swans are the better side and have more to lose here, it smacks of being an auto play. Swans to cover the extra points for 1 unit (plus into the value parlay) and to get off to a good start, 1 unit on the Quarter Time line. I expect both of these lines to move out to by 4 points/1 point respectively.

Also putting the pies and saints to cover in the parlay. Collingwood haven't had great form, but have needed the bye to re-focus. Port Adelaide will be hungry for more success, but Collingwood have good form at AAMI and have won 9 of their last 10 against the power, with 8 of the 9 wins by 4 goals or more. Collingwood have an outside chance of snaring 4th spot, and have to win this game to keep progressing.

St kilda have had a terrible year, and the tigers are into good form. Yet, St kilda have been good at covering the line when they get a 4 goal head-start, and were able to drag the tigers down earlier in the year. I'm expecting them too keep it close again.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Essendon QT +0.5, $1.90 X 1

Another week, another story about peptides at Essendon, this week with Jobe Watson admitting to using the banned substance AOD-9604. The bombers have bravely sent out their skipper to bare the brunt of the media scrutiny, which he and no doubt numerous other teammates will face when it comes time for sanctions to be handed out. The situation looks tough for the bombers, despite a top 4 spot within their reach (barring penalties the club may face), with a trip to Perth to face the eagles. They will have to come out with a lot of fire, although I wouldn't expect miracles from Watson this week. I'm expecting the bombers to come out breathing fire, and for the eagles to be stunned in the opening 10 minutes. Not sure how the game will pan out after quarter time, as the bombers have shown a number of times this year that they can play out more than just a patch of football from high emotions, while the eagles have been playing some very poor football. Bombers to cover the quarter time line here, 1 unit.

[Coopertrooper]

Big movement in the line for tonights match, with the bombers going from +2.5 early in the week (and +1.5 still being around yesterday) to -4.5. This has moved the QT line from +0.5 to -1.5 or to -0.5 at lower odds.

How far will this line go before game time?

[DHB]

got them at -5.5
fuk should of jumped on board sooner.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Essendon QT +0.5, $1.90 X 1 WON

Good start to the weekend!

Round 14: 1-0 (3 pending) +0.90 units

The line has moved towards the blues a couple of points, But i think the quarter time line and game line look like very good value now, hopefully the swans will do the job.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #5 - Sydney/Carlton Under 152.5, $1.88 X 1

The rain has come down a bit in Sydney, and the radar says more is on the way. I expect this scoreline could read 80-50 or something similar with the weather conditions and the way these teams play. 1 unit play to go with the Sydney plays

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Parlay:
-Sydney -24.5, $2.10
-Collingwood -24.5, $2.10
-St Kilda +22.5, $2.10

TOTAL: $9.26 X 0.5 LOSS

Play #2 - Sydney -24.5, $2.10 X 1 LOSS

Play #3 - Sydney QT -4.5, $1.90 X 1 WON

Play #5 - Sydney/Carlton Under 152.5, $1.88 X 1 WON

Round 14: 3-2 +1.18 units

Frustrating to see the swans cover the line, but not the extra 4 points, especially with the huge start they had and the easy shot at goal in the final minutes. Brought down what could have been a very good night.

However, I've now reached my tentative pre-season goal of 15 units! Hopefully now that things are starting to flow it can be pushed past 15 units, and aim for 15% ROI for the season!

[Coopertrooper]

Play #6 - Collingwood QT -3.5, $1.90 X 1
　
Play #7 - Geelong QT -3.5, $1.90 X 1


Collingwood travel to Adelaide to take on an in-form Port Adelaide outfit, having just taken down the swans (who have not been super impressive this year). Collingwood has been scrounging for form, and comes into another must win match for crucial points, as well as a chance to keep closing the gap in percentage with teams around them in the top 8. Important that Collingwood get off to a good start here, and I expect them too.

Geelong come off a shock loss, with the team likely to be fired up early from a Chris Scott bake. They take on Fremantle, whom continue to shine this season. They are no easy beats, but the match is at Skilled Stadium, so a line as low as 3.5 for the first quarter is a gift.

1 unit on both plays, GL

[Coopertrooper]

Play #6 - Collingwood QT -3.5, $1.90 X 1 LOSS

Mindless mistakes so far from Collingwood, so frustrating. Especially after getting the first 2 goals, we should have been good enough to cash this one. Think I'm going to stop any bets on Collingwood, the side always misses my plays by 1 or 2 kicks!

Round 14: 3-3 (1 pending) +0.18 units

[Coopertrooper]

　
Play #7 - Geelong QT -3.5, $1.90 X 1 WON

Round 14: 4-3 +1.08 units

[Coopertrooper]

Play #8 - Richmond 1-39, $2.20 X 1

The tigers come into this match as the better team, looking to sure up their top 8 spot and play finals for the first time in a long time. St Kilda have managed to keep in a number of games until late, and are able to play defensively enough to keep their losses down. They kept the tigers to 18 points early in the year, and I'm expecting a similar margin. 1 unit play, GL

[Coopertrooper]

Play #8 - Richmond 1-39, $2.20 X 1 LOSS

Round 14: 4-4 +0.08 units

St Kilda were very poor, after starting the first 10 minutes well. They were blasted away by the tigers. Not a great round, so good to escape without any damage.

YTD: 41-60 +14.50 units

Units risked: 121
ROI: +11.98%

Tough week. Just have to keep calm and keep things moving along.

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 15 LINES:

Carlton - / Collingwood -*
GWS +30.5 / Western Bulldogs -30.5
North Melbourne +16.5 / Richmond -16.5
Brisbane -14.5 / Gold Coast +14.5
Geelong +6.5 / Hawthorn -6.5
Adelaide -5.5 / West Coast +5.5
Melbourne +60.5 / Sydney -60.5
Fremantle -47.5 / St kilda +47.5
Essendon -25.5 / Port Adelaide +25.5

*No opening line given

[Coopertrooper]

Round 15

Play #1 - Parlay:
-Collingwood -3.5, $2.10
-Hawthorn -10.5, $2.10

TOTAL $4.41 X 1

Play #2 - Hawthorn Win, $1.70 X 2

Having a go at this double in the weekends to big grudge matches. Collingwood comes off one of its worse losses for the year, and one which spells massive trouble for it's 2013 season. I want to stay away from Collingwood with most of my bets for the remainder of this year, but the big clash against the blues offers up too much value to refuse. There will be some big inclusions for the pies, with other players to be put on notice, while the blues struggle to string any form together.

Hawthorn are looking in top shape, with a perfect opportunity to break the 'Kennet Curse'. Geelong are not playing outstanding football, and will miss Johnson here. Hawthorn look destined to win this year's premiership, so breaking this mental hurdle before September is vital. 1 unit on the parlay, and a 2 unit on the hawks.

(Also, for the hawks play, a head to head bet on the hawks at sportsbet can get money back (max $100) if Hawthorn do not win, but get within 20 points of Geelong. There is the same promotion on the cats, as well as the pies and blues, so some good value there!)

[Coopertrooper]

Not a great pies line up with both Witts and Hudson in the same side, no surprise the line has been now set at 5.5

[Coopertrooper]

Great win by the mighty pies! Leg 1 of the multi romps in despite the bad line, think I'm about the only one who had cash on the pies on sbr tonight, looks like most people loaded up on the blues.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Richmond 1-39, $2.25 X 1
　
The tigers come into this match in great form, after a dominant month of football ensuring they will play finals this year. North Melbourne come into the match off a big win over GWS after some poor matches, with their season in tatters. The roos have struggled mentally this season, so the tigers are the obvious play. However, many roos players are still playing for spots, and the tigers could look to ease off the gas just a little before the finals, or will look to power their way through and try to challenge for top 4. The risk is 40+ here, so playing 1-39 for 1 unit

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Richmond 1-39, $2.25 X 1 LOSS
　
The tigers come into this match in great form, after a dominant month of football ensuring they will play finals this year. North Melbourne come into the match off a big win over GWS after some poor matches, with their season in tatters. The roos have struggled mentally this season, so the tigers are the obvious play. However, many roos players are still playing for spots, and the tigers could look to ease off the gas just a little before the finals, or will look to power their way through and try to challenge for top 4. The risk is 40+ here, so playing 1-39 for 1 unit

Long way to go in the match, but this is already cooked. Pathetic showing from the tigers, their spot in the 8 will again come under threat now!

Round 15: 0-1 (2 pending) -1 unit

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Brisbane QT -4.5, $1.90 X 2

With Ablett out, the lines have moved out to 22.5 or more, but this line is clearly off, should be -5.5 or -6.5, so giving less than a goal is a steal. The lions should be able to cover this I feel, they will want to take early advantage of Ablett being out. 2 unit play

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Brisbane QT -4.5, $1.90 X 2 WON

With Ablett out, the lines have moved out to 22.5 or more, but this line is clearly off, should be -5.5 or -6.5, so giving less than a goal is a steal. The lions should be able to cover this I feel, they will want to take early advantage of Ablett being out. 2 unit play

Lions were shaky in front of goal, but covered the line!

Round 15: 1-1 (2 pending) +0.80 units

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Parlay:
-Collingwood -3.5, $2.10
-Hawthorn -10.5, $2.10

TOTAL $4.41 X 1 LOSS

Play #2 - Hawthorn Win, $1.70 X 2 LOSS

Ouch, the hawks go down to the cats again, killing all remaining plays.

Round 15: 1-3 -2.2 units

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Kennett curse strikes again.

What's that, 10 in a row now?

[Coopertrooper]

Kennett curse strikes again.

What's that, 10 in a row now?

　
11 now! 9 of them by 10 points or less, and Geelong have been underdogs with the books for the last few times.