Ding dong! Over not even close. 
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well played mate i followed youComment -
Cheers guys. Good to hit the total comfortably, makes up for the losses on Geelong 1-39. The cats wasted some opportunities to win there in the end, they don't seem to be as strong as previous years (yet some lucky wins and 2 wins against the hawks has them so high up again). Again having CPU issues with updating it properly, so it will come later in the round, but am about 0.15 units down or so I think.I may not have worded it clearly enough, but that was not the reason for the play, I just meant that my angle on the game was against the heavy backing from the public.Comment -
well done mate!Comment -
Thanks DHB
Round 19 (2 pending): 1-3 -1.18 units
Got the Melbourne call wrong. Thought they would play for pride, but they apparently don't have any. A sad and sorry day for demon fans, just yet another in the past 5 years of pain, with at least 5 more to come. GWS have given them a belting, and they just don't work hard for each other, just selfish, skilless, lazy football. The darkest hour for Melbourne, when you thought it could not possibly sink this far. Won't make the mistake of thinking Melbourne care again.
The Hawks/Tigers game should go under, it is looking very comfortabe, but won't count it yet so I don't jinx it!!Comment -
Play #7 - Carlton/Fremantle Over 169.5 (BET365), $1.91 X 2
Can't believe this total is so low. While Fremantle have been a defensive juggernaut this year, their home ground is one of the toughest to score at. Their only game at Etihad this year went for 184 (although it was early in the year when the trend was for high scores). Their last 2 totals have been low (131, 128) at low scoring venues, which has pushed this total down. At the same time, Carlton have had a high-scoring month of 195, 184, 217 and 197, with the middle 2 at Etihad. Of their other matches at Etihad this year, only 1 went under this mark (145 in their loss to the saints). However, they were hampered with injuries in this match. I feel this is the more dominant influence. Added to that both games are on the cusp of top 4 and top 8, so they must both kick a winning score. Think this goes over, rolling with 2 units. GL to everyone playing tonight
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Tough week for all coops was 50/50 today and thought the public would get GWS over the line, so I didn't dare touch it, and what happens.. dees suck a pile of aggets now, they don't give a flying focaccia, I'm liking the over too, best of luckComment -
Just got home from the hawks/tigers game, oh how sweet it was.Comment -
On the buggy computer again, but with the hawks/tigers under hitting, the freo 1-39 hitting and the freo/blues over hitting, this round is currently about 4 units in the positive. Hopefully a few people have been jumping on board a few of the plays today Brettels, I can imagine it will be a great feeling getting to finally see some finals action, although I'm hoping it is short-lived if you face us first up :P
Play #8 - Sydney 1-39, $2.75 X 1
This is simply trying to find a bit of extra value from the line. The line is sitting at 45.5, which I think the dogs can cover here. This one is a little more on gut feel than deep analysis. Their recent form continues to impress, while the suggestion from sportsbet that the swans covering is a top trending bet also adds to my gut feel that the dogs could do enough. The swans losing this would be a massive shock, I don't really see how the dogs can do enough to win this match, but I do see them keeping it tight enough to cover the line. Instead of playing -41.5 at $2.10, the 1-39 at $2.75 is much better value. Playing it for 1 unit, will likely be my only Sunday play.Comment -
I'll through a unit on play #8 due to tailing your Play #7. Thanks for the pick and write up coopertrooper.Comment -
What about todays matches
Adelaide / Port "wire to wire" any other result @ 2.00 into Collingwood / Essendon "wire to wire" any other result @ 2.00
Decent 4/1 multi?Comment -
Coopertrooper, I keep playing around with the ladder predictor. We are destined to play each other in finals unless Essendon is punished and lose all there points.Comment -
SBR went down today when I tried to post, and won't come back up on my main computer still, so will try and keep the update from being too messy.
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Tross - You're welcome!
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Punchy - I wrote a reply before todays games which said that I don't like the wire to wire markets myself, but there was definitely value there. Unlucky that Essendon didn't have an early showing with the other game varying wildly. I found the variations in both games hard to judge, so didn't play either of them.
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brettels - it seems so, unless Essendon fall out of the top 5 (which is certainly possibly), or lose their points as you say. I've been chatting with a tigers mate about getting tickets because of how it has been shaping up.
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Originally posted by coopertrooper
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Round 19: 5-3+6.86 units
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YTD: 56-77 +24.81 units
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Units risked: 165
ROI: +15.04%
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A good week in the end, despite quite a few upsets, and a gutless dees performance. Will have a look at some plays when the markets open, hopefully there will be some good value around.
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ROUND 20 OPENING LINES:
St Kilda +55.5 / Hawthorn -55.5
Richmond -32.5 / Brisbane +32.5
Geelong -35.5 / Port Adelaide +35.5
Carlton -21.5 / Western Bulldogs +21.5
Sydney -16.5 / Collingwood +16.5
Gold Coast -36.5 / Melbourne +36.5
Essendon -20.5 / West Coast +20.5
Adelaide +3.5 / North Melbourne -3.5
Fremantles -72.5 / GWS +72.5Comment -
ROUND 20
Play #1 - Parlay:
-Carlton 1-39, $2.25
-North Melbourne 1-39, $2.40
TOTAL: $5.40 X 1
Play #2 - Carlton 1-39, $2.25 X 2
Play #3 - North Melbourne 1-39, $2.40 X 1
I see a little bit of value, but it looks like being a fairly quiet week. Carlton face the bulldogs, with their season likely over, barring the bombers losing points. This will mean that it is still a live game for the blues, so the focus and energy should be there to bounce back this week. They will go into this match with enough pressure to perform. At the same time, the bulldogs continue their good form with a good showing against the swans. They are looking to play out the year strongly. This game sits right where the line is in my eyes, at about a 3-4 goal win for the blues. Love the 1-39 play here, 2 units on it, and into the double.
The other leg of that double is North Melbourne. I know a lot of people have been burnt on them this year, but a similar concept applies here to the Carlton game. North Melbourne are the only team likely to edge Carlton for 9th spot, which becomes 8 if the bombers lose points, so this is again a live game for them. The crows will be stinging after having the game against port pinched from them, ending their season. It is a home game for the crows, so don't expect them to be pushed over early. I don't think North Melbourne can blow them out of the water here, so again on the 1-39 play for 1 unit.
Will wait and see what happens with the totals for this week before making any more plays.
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I really don't want to face the pies in the finals just yet, it would be good for us to play at home vs port hopefully. Although Richmond vs Collingwood in the first week of finals may draw a bigger crowd than the grand final
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To be honest, I'd be quietly confident up against the tigers. The bombers look shot coming into the finals, even if they don't lose their points and port playing away from adelaide don't seem the same proposition. I think Collingwood would be the worst side to draw in the first final, I don't really see us losing to anyone except the top 4 with the team coming together as it is. But any final between Richmond/Essendon/Collingwood would be massive after how long it has been (or Carlton could pop in for the dons if they are rubbed out, it leads to some big MCG crowd either way!)Comment -
Great call on the North/Geelong total Cooper. I stand corrected...
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Geelong have moved 4 points to -39.5, but that is the only major movement (a few other 1 point moves). Barring any team shocks, the books have put out some of the sharpest lines of the year imo.
2 different picks across my 3 plays for this week thus far could be about it, unless I find a total I like closer to match day. I'm also working on Saturday, so probably no match day bets on those games for me. It is probably a good time just to pull back anyway, with what has been a profitable season to date. A few quiet weeks will ensure the season stays well in profit, so no need to chase plays or make any action plays. GL to those taking on the books this week
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There's a pattern I'm noticing in AFL that goes back to R13. One week it's mostly the dogs covering, then next week it's the favs. R20 is favs turn fwiw.Comment -
Couldn't agree more. Personally I think it's "favourites" round in NRL and AFL this week. Only dog I really like in the AFL are the actual Bulldogs (although I'm aware that I'm in the vast minority on this one).Comment -
Disclaimer I bleed hawks and have followed them as long as I can remember.
However I do see this week the hawks pelting the sorry saints. Every week after losing to the cats (still hurts), we have belted the team the following week, by 50 and 46 to eagles and port both away. Saints are pretty must playing out the year again, I do see saints struggling to kick 60, I do see however some of the hawks getting a rest either through 'general soreness', 'illness' or just being 'omitted' as Sewell was, but that shouldn't deter the points. -55.5 seems just a tad low, seems ambitious but hawks did kick 148, 120 something against port, we could be brutal and it could get ugly for saints. However total at 199.5 seems too much as it requires both teams to actually do their bit.
Rant over... Thoughts coop?Comment -
Sando, I think the dogs are showing some real improvement and will be a better side next year. At the moment, they are playing competitive footy, but can't beat half-decent sides. They're providing great value at the moment for keeping games in the 1-39 or covering the line, but you never know whether that breakthrough game will come this year or not and this is probably as good of a spot for it as any.
The saints are certainly in the stage of trying new players and new tactics. Looking at the past 6 weeks, the saints are scoring an average of around 70 ppg (83 in 2 matches at Etihad) while conceding around 110 ppg (103.5 in 2 matches at Etihad) for totals of around 180 ppg (186.5 at Etihad).
The hawks are coming into a consolidation period before the finals, so it is tough to get much from their form, but their past 4 matches have yielded ppg of abour 190, with the low-scoring matches at the MCG and Aurora and a high-scoring match against the bombers being the only game at Etihad (230 points).
Off this form, the hawks should score about 130 in this match, against a struggling defensive unit. The saints should still be able to score 70-80 points, which would make the end margin between 60-50 points. The line is right in this band, so that looks like a really sharp line to me. I couldn't possibly take the saints to cover here, and to take the hawks covering you have to have an angle on the hawks firing up for this game in my opinion.
Going off these numbers, the total should be around 200-210. I have been looking at this total and waiting to see where it goes. It is sitting at 200.5 at the moment, but I am leaning the over here and am about to have a go at that line (play will follow this post). The reason I'm leaning this despite the numbers pointing to nothing spectacular is because I believe the saints will be playing attacking football tomorrow night. They have some promising kids up forward along with Riewoldt, so they have the attacking power there. They have little to gain by trying to limit the hawks to 100 points and scoring 50, so I feel like they will want to go toe-to-toe. I don't believe the hawks will bring their A-game and will allow the saints to score, but will still be able to kick a big score (despite losing Franklin). My angle is that the line is still sharp, but the saints will be able to push up to the higher end of that range and score around 80 points.Comment -
Play #4 - St Kilda/Hawthorn Over 200.5 (BET365), $1.91 X 1.5
As from the post above:
I have been looking at this total and waiting to see where it goes. It is sitting at 200.5 at the moment, but I am leaning the over here and am about to have a go at that line. The reason I'm leaning this despite the numbers pointing to nothing spectacular is because I believe the saints will be playing attacking football tomorrow night. They have some promising kids up forward along with Riewoldt, so they have the attacking power there. They have little to gain by trying to limit the hawks to 100 points and scoring 50, so I feel like they will want to go toe-to-toe. I don't believe the hawks will bring their A-game and will allow the saints to score, but will still be able to kick a big score (despite losing Franklin). My angle is that the line is still sharp, but the saints will be able to push up to the higher end of that range and score around 80 points. Playing this for 1.5 unitsComment -
Thanks coop, buddy and hodge out means line drops a smidge to 53.5... Think the hawks do okay without buddy, but the total stays the same around 200 mark, especially with 2 saint defenders injured Stanley and Simpkin I think I'll have a change of heart over 200.5 seems the play rather than the cover for hawksComment -
any reason as to why total is going down? 198.5 nowComment -
Probably down a couple of points with the public seeing Hodge/Franklin being out and changing it's mind. I think most people will focus a lot more on who is playing for Hawthorn and not really consider St Kilda's outs here.
Also, the other books may have set their total there and put them out today, which may have forced Bet365 to move their line down to meet them. It may well be the books focusing on the changes and not the public, but I didn't see what sportsbet and the other books first put up.Comment -
ive taken it into a multi of overs in the storm game too.
Roof shut, friday night footy and hawks after a bad loss --> fingers crossed they come out to score tonightComment -
Hawks didn't get out second gear and fooled around.. Ahhh wellComment -
Round 20: 0-3 -4.5 units
Ouch. Friday night total goes well under after an inaccurate first half and a complete snoozefest of a second half. Followed up with Carlton being smashed by the dogs, who should have won by a lot more, a pathetic response to their last chance to sneak towards 8th. Don't see them winning another game for the year, especially not with that form.
No plays for me tonight, have to lick my wounds and hope the profits aren't strongly erroded by the last month of football.Comment -
Round 20: 0-4 -5.5 units
YTD: 56-81 +19.31 units
Units risked: 170.5
ROI: +11.33%
Brutal round. Worst weekend I can ever remember having. Very poor quality football, with only a few exceptions, while sides like Carlton and North Melbourne showed no hunger to play finals football, and consigned themselves to yet more pain and misery for their fans. ordinary stuff from them.Comment
