I have to say our form has been very good. Hawthorn are a fantastic side, and I think this is there year, so even last week wasn't a terrible showing. The game holds no weight for either team really, West Coast are done while Collingwood can only really finish 5th or 6th, which won't make a huge difference. Only angle I can see is West Coast have had an ordinary year and have struggled against the pies in recent times. I'd be leaning pies at the line, but I wouldn't be playing it.
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Didak just kicked his first career goal
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If I had a gun to my head at the start of the year, and the option was to pick west coast to make the 8 or not, i would of picked the 8. dam, they have gone down almost as quick as they came back up after the wooden spoon year a few years ago.
Well played collingwood, well played.Comment -
Gah, after a fortnight of no winners this would've been a good way to start! Pies formline is very good, while the eagles, as you say brettels, have fallen as fast as they rose a few years back. Staggering year, definitely the biggest disappointments. My ladder for the best quality sides (and the lines of betting I would have each team on fro the premiership) would go Hawks....Cats/Freo....Swans/Pies...Tigers....Port/Bombers/Blues. The hawks just look like such standouts at the moment.Comment -
This time last year, and this year, exactly the same thoughts about hawthorn, think they should fly through and take the premiership. But, last year during grand final week, my mind changed. Can't wait to watch finals. Still, if cats hawks play each other, I think the curse will continue, hawks just need to avoid them.Comment -
It is funny that curse. It just takes hawks from being odds-on to more like a 2-1 chance. They just need to avoid the cats at all costs and hope a side like the swans knock them off in a prelim.
Play #2 - Parlay
-Geelong 1-39, $2.15
-Carlton 1-39, $2.30
TOTAL $4.95 x 1
Probably my only other play for this weekend. I like the cats to get over the top of the swans at home. They obviously have a great record down there in what are usually low scoring games (especially against a dour side like the swans), so the 1-39 for them at home is always a favourite play. They should do enough to get over the swans, who aren't in the best of form in my opinion and are a step behind the other top 4 sides.
The bombers are set to lose points and their coach (and possibly players at some stage in the future), so will their be one last hoorah? I think we may see a bit of early intent, but this should be a Carlton win here. Essendon get some key players back, so I expect that to be enough to keep carlton from a big win. They have as much to play for as anyone this weekend, to ensure they have a chance for 8th (or 7th with the bombers losing points) next weekend, assuming port lose tonight, so they simply have to find a way to win. They aren't a great side, hopefully it stays within the 1-39
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Originally posted by Coopertrooper
Round 22: 1-1 +0.35 units
YTD: 57-85 +15.66 units
Units risked: 177
ROI: +8.85%
Happy to go through a tough week quietly and pick up a small profit.Comment -
ROUND 23 LINES:
Sydney +8.5 / Hawthorn -8.5
St Kilda +37.5 / Fremantle -37.5
Geelong -55.5 / Brisbane +55.5
Port Adelaide -6.5 / Carlton +6.5
Essendon +22.5 / Richmond -22.5
West Coast +2.5 / Adelaide -2.5
Gold Coast -35.5 / GWS +35.5
Collingwood -13.5 / North Melbourne +13.5
Western bulldogs -40.5 / Melbourne +40.5Comment -
Hey coops, think this round could be a tricky one, hawks could be experimenting, I'm against the notion that nobody wants to play the cats? Swans look a but dodgy with their injuries but always seem to produce in the finals season proper. Freo in form, not sure if blues will try yet as I have felt a bit of Carltank this year, especially after Micky said he'll clean up the list postseason. Surely tigers to keep going -22.5 looks a bit short. I don't see the point of Pies going hard this week. Reckon we hold ammo a bit until teams are announced could be some junk teams in this week.Comment -
I'm all over the tigers this weekComment -
It will be another tough round. The bombers are set to lose their points, just waiting for the official confirmation now, so I'm factoring that in.
Swans/Hawks: Sydney pretty much cemented into 4th, the hawks must win to keep top spot and play the swans again the week after (which looks the easier game rather than freo), so you would expect them to play this game out more than the swans. The swans are limping into the finals, the hawks will want to head in with momentum. Only play I really like at the moment. (Currently line out from -8.5 to -11.5)
Stk/Freo: At first glance the dockers look like easy winner here. However, they are likely anchored to 3rd, with the margin meaning little here. I would be surprised if they don't ease off in this game, while a few big name saints play out the last half/quarter of their careers. Live plays could be an option. (Currently no line moves)
Geel/Bris: I'd be surprised if Brisbane won here, but they have a sneaky chance to make the finals if the blues lose. They won't roll over early. Will be considering a play here later in the week. (currently no line moves)
Port/Blues: Usually I'd say port have little to play for and will be locked into 7th, and with the blues needing to win to secure 8th they will be desperate to win. However, port seriously need some form going into next week, so I'm expecting them to show up at home. The blues are also very ordinary, so a loss wouldn't shock. Line looks pretty good, won't be touching this one.
Cheats/Tigers: With their points gone, they lose their spot and how will they see out the season? Absolutely can't touch this one, not with such history occurring here. However, the tigers will want as much percentage as possible, so keep that in mind if you play here.
Pies/North: Collingwood want as much percentage too, but will have a good idea of what they require by match morning after the cheats/tigers game. North will have an idea of whether they can make a play at winning 8th spot. Best to wait until after Saturday night's games to look at this one (No current line moves).
Other games look fairly tight, don't see any major angles there.
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Round 23
Play #1 - Hawthorn -11.5, $1.92 X 2
As Discussed above, the hawks will want form and top spot locked in here against the out of sorts swans. Playing 2 units here.Comment -
St kilda in from +37.5 to +26.5. Based on players retiring? We knew this already, so it shouldn't really be that strong of a factor. Could be something else at play here, will be watching the team line-ups tomorrow with interest. If there are no unexpected changes, freo could be the play at such a low line.Comment -
It'd be surprising, as they are playing for 2nd spot this week, and a home Qualifying Final. Surely they wouldn't just assume Geelong will beat Brisbane (who have a realistic chance to make the top 8 if they win, so they'll be trying) and that they are stuck in 3rd?
It could well be that Fremantle players have some injury clouds over them, but I can't say I've heard anything? That, or this is just a late overreaction (perhaps someone with far too much spare cash having a go at the line, as this movement appears line-driven).Comment -
My sources say Freo will be resting everyone with a niggle and not putting them through the flights to Melbourne for what is probably a meaningless game. Bigger fish to fry.
They'll just stay in Perth for the week. The likes of ballantyne, suban, fyfe, mundy, mayne, dawson, walters, clarke, johnson etc are rumoured not to be going. Maybe crowley too.
Books will know exactly who got on the flight today. The line up is officially being announced at 4:25PM WA time (half an hour), but you can check out a press conference with ross lyon that stats in 5 minutes: http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/2...with-ross-lyon
Almost worth taking the saints now!!!!Comment -
Lyon just told the media that he can't pre-empt the official announcement, but "suban, hill, walters and others that need injections" are going to be out.
One kid making debut (Forster?), other kid going as emergency (missed his name).
He also said that last year that the travel hurt at finals time (travel to melb for the EF, then 6 day break and Crows at AAMI for the SF), so it was a calculated decision.Comment -
A total of 42 changes this weekComment -
Line is at 10.5. Port, bombers ats, hawks and crows look good this week.Comment -
37.5 into 9.5, wow!!! Massive go.
Can't believe that the dockers are resting that many, I can't comprehend why they would do that. You battle for every inch you can take, and resting a couple of players would have been enough. But this many? Madness. You'd love to have been on the line at the start of the week (or hated it if you got on the wrong side!).
Fremantle showing no respect to the lions, I'll still be thinking about a play closer to game day. Hoping the public doesn't show them much respect either!Comment -
Freo are still a decent ML chance, yes. But at -37.5, probably not.
Cooper: Dockers are playing the Saints! I think if you lose an EF because you are tired from travel, it makes sense to avoid that the next season if you can. Ultimately, 3rd or 4th makes no difference. It isn't about disrespect, because I don't think they are too worried about losing.Comment -
I think this is a two parter game, firstly Lyon resting his players for Geelong and secondly I think he might be showing some respect to his old club and players. It's a big occasion for the Saints and is the official turning of the page from quite an impressive chapter - although not quite winning the GF. Freo have so many outs and so many guys who have played hardly any AFL games this year. Saints will be fired up. I'm surprised Freo are still favourites.Comment -
I can't see this having anything to do with Lyon showing respect to St Kilda by taking a half strength team to play against them. I didn't see him show anything like that at his press conference. It was all about finals. It is a big day for the Saints and Lyon might be happy to see them not get smashed (which they probably would by a full strength Dockers team), but there is no way in a million years it this even factors into the decision. Do you really think the Ross Lyon and the Freo Match Committee thought about what a big day it is going to be for St Kilda when they rested half the team?
I think they were probably only ever taking a chance to take a full strength team away if they were playing Geelong for a home prelim.
Whatever the case, no play. Probably won't even watch it.Comment -
i would also be surprised.
I thought you'd said it was a two partner game(?) (rest and Lyon, as Fremantle's head coach, but ex-coach of Saint Kilda, doing it for the Saints (even typing that sounds wrong now)); meaning it factors in in some way. I'm saying I don't reckon its a factor in any way whatsoever from Freo's point of view. Saints should definitely be up for it.
Back to the action, I like the early square over lines on the Suns/GWS and WB/Demons games. Suns/GWS should be open like the first game and they opened a Dogs game (that isn't against Freo) at etihad at 190? I've been riding the Dogs wave of overs for a few weeks now (wish I'd taken the sides too). Even Demons should be able to put up a few on their leaky defence. Played them each for a unit.Comment -
That's the biggest line move since the Saints/Hawks in round 19, 2009, when Ross Lyon decided to rest Riewoldt, Goddard, Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Fisher, Milne and Baker.
The Saints were 19-0 heading into the match and ended up running out as $2.20 Dogs. They still won by 25 points. Don't get ****** into these changes.Comment -
Great post Middleman. No doubt Saints will be playing for the 3 retirees but Saints have been pretty woeful all year, I don't like the notion of resting so many players 1 round away from finals, look at the past few seasons the form team has won it. Last year Hawks crawled past the crows, then lost to Swans where in my humble stupid opinion hawks played to 80%, although swans did not allow them to, shutting down pivotal Birchall. Just saying it obviously looks like Lyon putting all eggs in first week basket against Cats (provided hawks beat an undermanned swans tonight).
Way sidetracked sorry. Some freo players will be looking to get in Lyons mind for selection the following week too. Think Freo look the goods to win this week, they won't care about the margin, maybe shut up shop in fourth as well, especially with their grind out games style of play, don't see freo getting up by many.Comment
