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ROUND 21 LINES:
Hawthorn -7.5 / Collingwood +7.5
Richmond -19.5 / Carlton +19.5
Port Adelaide -27.5 / Gold Coast +27.5
Essendon +10.5 / North Melbourne -10.5
West Coast +12.5 / Geelong -12.5
Brisbane -62.5 / GWS +62.5
Melbourne +68.5 / Melbourne -68.5
Sydney -58.5 / St Kilda +58.5
Western Bulldogs +5.5 / Adelaide -5.5Comment -
ROUND 21:
Play #1 - Parlay:
-Richmond 1-39, $2.15
-Port Adelaide 1-39, $2.20
-Geelong 1-39, $2.20
TOTAL: $10.41 X 0.5
Play #2 - Richmond 1-39, $2.15 X 1.5
Only 1 play really strikes me so far. The tigers are in good form, but took their foot off the gas a little last week, while their recent wins have not really blown out (except for their big win over the hawks by 41 points). They come into this game as the clearly superior team. Carlton showed this week that they don't have the interest in this year to seriously challenge the tigers here. They have a good record against the tigers, so I think this could be fairly high scoring, with carlton looking to put together a good score. Playing the 1-39 and will also wait to see what the total is like here.
My value bet for the week also includes Port and Geelong. Port come up against a tiring suns outfit and will want to bounce back after struggling against the cats last week. Ablett was well held by the dees, his worst game for years, so he should be back to his regular output this week with the Brownlow Medal on the radar. He should help keep the suns from being blown away, hence why I am looking at the 1-39 play. And again, I'm liking the look of the 1-39 play again in the cats game. West Coast have had poor form at home, but are finishing the year with some confidence and their fittest team of the year. At a low-scoring stadium such as Pattersons, the 1-39 for the away favourite is always a consideration and it looks good here.
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They were late putting the dons/roos line up and are probably very sensitive to any cash on it, out from 10.5 to 17.5 in the first couple of hours!Comment -
Hawks line out to 10.5 alreadyComment -
I reckon hawks are good things this week, I know ur a pies man but they have has ur measure for a while now.. Luxbet offering $1.60 for ML which is juicy for those big bettersComment -
I was considering backing against Collingwood when we played the hawks earlier in the year, but I wouldn't be here. The side is completely different when the 'big 4' mids are fit and firing, with other guys getting back from injury too. There isn't really any value in this match in my opinion, it is one to steer clear of.Comment -
Is daisy back?Comment -
Play #3 - Hawthorn/Collingwood First Quarter Under 45.5, $1.88 X 2
This play has a strong influence from the weather. There are strong Northerly winds coming in, which are forecast to continue all night (There has been wind across most of the state all day) This has seen a heavy push for the under for the entire match. However, my original lean was for the over at the current number, as I feel this game could have a number of shots at goal. My angle is that both teams will struggle to adjust to it early, so the under for the first quarter looks juicy. To go over, it will require 7 goals in the first quarter if there are 9 behinds or less, or will require 6 goals if there are 10 or more behinds. I don't see there being 16 scoring shots in the first quarter, but they should be fairly inaccurate. 2 unit play
(This market can be tough to find, I only saw Sportsbet with it. If you can't find this market, I would personally recommend staying away from the total for the entire match).Comment -
I like that play, tailed it for a little betComment -
Great play mate, I took hawks and pies to have more behinds then goals for a unit each both paying around $2.20Play #3 - Hawthorn/Collingwood First Quarter Under 45.5, $1.88 X 2
This play has a strong influence from the weather. There are strong Northerly winds coming in, which are forecast to continue all night (There has been wind across most of the state all day) This has seen a heavy push for the under for the entire match. However, my original lean was for the over at the current number, as I feel this game could have a number of shots at goal. My angle is that both teams will struggle to adjust to it early, so the under for the first quarter looks juicy. To go over, it will require 7 goals in the first quarter if there are 9 behinds or less, or will require 6 goals if there are 10 or more behinds. I don't see there being 16 scoring shots in the first quarter, but they should be fairly inaccurate. 2 unit play
(This market can be tough to find, I only saw Sportsbet with it. If you can't find this market, I would personally recommend staying away from the total for the entire match).Comment -
Thanks guys. I think backing both sides for poor accuracy is a reasonable idea, good chance at least one side has a few tough shots and doesn't make 50% accuracy. Some Out on the Full's may come into it though!Comment -
D'ohComment -
would have been a better bet if the heavens openedComment -
It is about to piss downComment -
Is it just me or was that clearly touched? Also the goal umpire went to signal touched and then said he believed it was a goal wtf?Comment -
That looked touched for sure.Comment -
Wow, can't believe that there was just 4 points scores in the first 25% of the bet, with 10 goals being kicked in the next 75% of that quarter. Both sides seemed unaffected by the gale that was blowing over. My picks are ice cold at the moment.Comment -
Having trouble quoting to update for some reason, but I'm sitting on 0-3 for -4 units.
Stinker of a fortnight, not a single winning bet, definitely the worst period I've had. Feeling unlucky with todays losses from Richmond somehow choking a big early lead. Carlton let me down last week showing no pride, this week they topple the tigers and screw me again. As if I need more reason to hate Carlton, haha.Comment -
yeah penetrate the Blues. Cost everyone todayComment -
Round 21: 0-3 -4 units
YTD: 56-84 +15.31 units
Units risked: 174.5
ROI: +8.77%
Painful fortnight concludes with no winners. Will be fairly quiet over the next few weeks after killing my own bankroll across a few sports, which should do enough to keep this year in the positive, but will scale it down so nothing can go (further) drastically wrong!Comment -
ROUND 22 OPENING LINES:
Collingwood -34.5 / west Coast +34.5
Adelaide -58.5 / Melbourne +58.5
North Melbourne +18.5 / Hawthorn -18.5
Geelong -14.5 / Sydney +14.5
Carlton -17.5 / Essendon +17.5
Fremantle -31.5 / Port Adelaide +31.5
St kilda - / Gold Coast -
GWS +67.5 / Richmond -67.5
Brisbane -11.5 / Western Bulldogs +11.5
There is no line with sportsbet for saints/gc, and only $1.87 for each H2H (but the extra 4 point line is $2.10 with -4 for both).Comment -
I like the eagles +Comment -
How do we think Bulldogs are going to travel away from the dome? They've been great there, but Lions have been unstoppable at the Gabba (and in decent form too).
Lions haven't lost at Gabba since r10 going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with the one ATS loss being by 2 points on the weekend), including wins over Geelong, North and Gold Coast. They are playing for Harvey too... Maybe don't over analyze and just take the over if its set under 200 and good weather.
I'd also love to fade essendon. The bubble has well and truly burst, but buggered if I'm touching another side on a Carlton game this season.Comment -
I'm not sure if I'm just coy after the past fortnight, but I am not sure what to make of any Carlton or Essendon game now. The North/Hawks game has little consequence for either side (Hawks are locked in for top 2 (barring a swan/cats draw and other results, but crazily unlikely), North can't make the finals (injunctions are looming so the bombers should play), so I don't know how to read into that one. Do the hawks sharpen their attacking or defensive skills? Do North try to go all out and finish the season trying to score heavily still? The saints have been terrible, but the suns are tiring. Hard to part with any cash on that game either.
The dogs really are doing a North Melbourne and starting their rise by playing well at Etihad. The lions have been solid at home, but with the emotion of Voss being given the boot subsiding, how will they play out the last 2 matches? I usually find the last few rounds tougher to gauge, but this round looks particularly nasty to me.Comment -
Yup, this is a particularly nasty weekend.
At least Dogs/Brisbane have equally little to play for apart from contracts. We should see a wide open game, so the more i think about it, the more i think you should get on the over on the early bet365 line when that comes out as long as it is reasonable (weather permitting).
Agree that Bombers will play finals and Hawks/North is untouchable.
Pies/West Coast = Eagles are done and Pies are fighting over 5th place with Tigers. Probably doesn't make much difference to them if they finish 5th or 6th and Tigers have GWS and Bombers to come, so should win both and stay ahead of Pies. I think Pies will want to bounce back after las week but 35.5 is too much for me to lay on an Eagles team that matches up well with Pies and will be last chance for some of them to play at the G.
Crows/Melb = pointless game and the 58.5 is about right.
Cats/Swans = should be a cracker. no idea who is going to win though. Swans actually play Skilled well, although note that the game they won was won on emotion with the passing of Jarrad McVeigh's daughter that week. Winner gets 2nd spot.
Blues/Bombers = gotta take blues if they weren't so inconsistent. A win here sets up a r23 clash with Port with the winner getting 8th spot. With that motivation and how bad Bombers have been, it SHOULD be a play.
Freo/Port = I wouldn't be surprised if Port take this easy if they fall behind early with their grand final the next week against Carlton. Possible blow out? If Freo win well and Swans beat Geelong by a small margin, Freo could jump into 2nd spot particularly as they are playing the Saints in r23. I think I'll be on Freo here if Sydney win during the day (and possibly on Freo regardless). If Geelong beat Sydney, Freo has a lot less to play for (Cats have Brisbane at skilled in r23). Even so though, Lyon will want them to thump Port regardless though and put the pressure on the Cats.
Saints/Suns - Suns are tiring, but they pushed a super fit Port team on the weekend, getting run over in the last. They are tired, but the last two weeks, the lines have been a bit far out. I think I'll be on Suns. Saints should not be favourites. At least take Suns 1H if you are scared of the blow out. AFL lines divide by 2, rather than factoring anything like that in.
Giants/Tigers - don't care. Hopefully Cameron kicks a few. Would be cool to see the Coleman medalist come from a team that won 1 game.
Thats my take on the round at first glance. Much more work to do!Comment -
Interesting that the saints line is saints -2.5 now. I agree that the suns first half (and probably first quarter too) are probably going to be the only solid plays thus far.
For the Freo/Port game, I feel like port will tackle it head on at the start, so a good start and they could well throw everything at sewing it up this week. A blow-out could well be on he cards though, could be a good live spot after half time.Comment -
-4.5 now. wow! Did this open at PK? Has Ablett hurt himself or something??
Yeah, I just can't see Port giving everything this week. I can't see how they can give 100% against Freo, running the risk of not being 100% against Carlton. Freo have shown they know how to blow teams out recently and I think that happens.
I hope that post above made sense. Was in a huge rush.Comment -
It's amazing that Bet365 has the balls to put out AFL totals as early as Tuesday...Comment -
Very ballsy.
I'm taking o/190.5 on Dogs/Lions game for 3x. Lions are averaging well over 100 at the Gabba in the last 2 months. Even though they've been playing well, Dogs have been very easy to score on, so you just need to Lions to put up their average against a below average defensive team. Dogs have been putting up decent numbers too and Lions defense is ONLY better than the Giants/Demons/Saints and, you guessed it - the Doggies.
Add to that the fact that with nothing on the line and two teams of kids, you won't be seeing a lock down game. I'd be encouraging my players to take the game on and show me what they can do for next season. This is going to be open IMO.
Finally, the only question mark I had was the weather. It is going to be perfect.
Forecast says:
SundayFine, partly cloudy.Min 10Max 25
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ROUND 22
Play #1 - Gold Coast QT +0.5, $1.90 X 1.5
The Gold Coast are starting to tire, but come up against a poor saints outfit. They'll be looking for a fast start, which was one of their strong points early in the year, but has lapsed in recent weeks. Their season sits with 7 first quarter wins, 11 losses and 2 draws, which is good for who they are. However, they have lost their last 4 starts in a row. It is sure to be something McKenna will want his team to correct before the year is out. St kilda sit with a record of 5 wins 12 losses and 3 draws, managing 2 losses and 2 draws in the past month. They have been terrible early in games this year, which has cost them a chance of being competitive in many games. Gold Coast should turn up early here, 1.5 unit play.
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What's your thoughts about te pies tommrow night coop?Comment
