Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread

[Coopertrooper]

Play #5 - Essendon 1-39, $2.20 X 1

Play #6 - Essendon -22.5/Over 185.5, $3.20 X 0.5

The bombers are desperate to keep themselves in touch with the top 4, so nothing less than a win will cut it here. Port Adelaide have to travel, and despite some good form against top sides they are still a bit inconsistent, although this game is important for them to consolidate their top 8 spot. Both sides have a lot riding on this, so it should be tight and high scoring, with the bombers likely being a little too good in the end. A play at the line and total in case the bombers get on top a bit earlier, with a chance that both hit. Hopefully will dig ourselves out of the hole that has been round 15

[hedgejob]

Under 68 over 55

Since the rest break 8 under 10 over. If this follows the script from earlier we'll get one more over round before under trend resumes.

R15: 3 under 6 over
R14: 5 under 4 over
R13: 4 under 2 over
R12: 6 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over
R10: 8 under 1 over
R9: 4 under 5 over
R8: 7 under 2 over
R7: 2 under 4 over
R6: 7 under 2 over
R5: 5 under 4 over
R4: 6 under 3 over
R3: 1 under 8 over
R2: 2 under 7 over
R1: 3 under 6 over

[Coopertrooper]

Under 68 over 55

Since the rest break 8 under 10 over. If this follows the script from earlier we'll get one more over round before under trend resumes.

R15: 3 under 6 over
R14: 5 under 4 over
R13: 4 under 2 over
R12: 6 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over
R10: 8 under 1 over
R9: 4 under 5 over
R8: 7 under 2 over
R7: 2 under 4 over
R6: 7 under 2 over
R5: 5 under 4 over
R4: 6 under 3 over
R3: 1 under 8 over
R2: 2 under 7 over
R1: 3 under 6 over

I will try and look over more totals in the next few weeks, the season has started to throw up some tough results again, so totals look to be the go. Nice work hedgejob.

Play #5 - Essendon 1-39, $2.20 X 1 WON

Play #6 - Essendon -22.5/Over 185.5, $3.20 X 0.5 WON

Round 15: 3-3 +0.10 units

Got out of the round without damage, after the hawks failed to deliver. Happy to be finding a way to not lose in the last couple of weeks, despite my better value plays missing.

YTD: 44-63 +14.60 units

Units risked: 128.5 units
ROI: +11.36%

Profit has slowed, sending ROI down over the past fortnight, which is annoying, but can hopefully be improved this week.

[Coopertrooper]

Lines are a bit late, so there may already have been a few movements:

ROUND 16 LATE MONDAY LINES:

Collingwood -27.5 / Adelaide +27.5
Port Adelaide +26.5 / Hawthorn -26.5
Geelong -64.5 / Melbourne +64.5
Richmond -24.5 / Gold Coast +24.5
Carlton -17.5 / St Kilda +17.5
Brisbane +15.5 / North Melbourne -15.5
Sydney -72.5 / GWS +72.5
Western Bulldogs +37.5 / Essendon -37.5
West Coast +10.5 / Fremantle -10.5

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 16

Play #1 - Parlay:
-Hawthorn -30.5, $2.10
-Collingwood 20-39, $4.20
-Richmond 1-39, $2.15

TOTAL: $18.96 X 0.5

Play #2 - Hawthorn -30.5, $2.10 X 2

Hawthorn look like being the best play for the week. They will be fuming after last week, and are up against a port side which continues to struggle to find it's best form. Travel won't be a huge factor, as the hawks need to focus on re-bounding and will be hitting this game hard, and have a good record after "Kennet's Curse" matches. 2 unit play and into the value parlay.

Also in the value parlay are the pies and tigers. Both lines are in the mid-20's, and both look sharp. Collingwood struggle to put away big wins, but should be comfortable winners against a struggling crows outfit. Richmond come up against the gold coast, who are starting to drop off, after being belted by the roos. They are down on form, and absolutely have to win this game, but don't appear to be good enough to win it comfortably (1-39 on its own is a play I will look at playing later in the week too). 1/2 a unit on the value parlay this week.

[hedgejob]

Melb are 3-0 ATS under Neil Craig. In 2013 Geelong are 0-3 ATS and 2-1 SU in games immediately after beating a top 3 side (they barely won the 2). Since Kennett's Curse, Geelong are 3-6 ATS after beating Hawthorn (could have been 1-8 ATS but for a few points).

[Coopertrooper]

I knew of Geelong struggling after the curse games, and that the hawks usually get the job done the next week (I think they are 5-1 ATS, but would have to check that, some of them went fairly close). I'm not quite sure why, but the Geelong spread still worries me, only because of how unstable Melbourne are, but they are worth a look. I obviously like the hawks line as it is, and with the added history I think it'll move out sharply. Will look at where the cats line goes with interest.

[hedgejob]

2013 ATS Stats

[Coopertrooper]

No surprise to see the shock sides of this year (Ess, GC, Port) up there, while the disappointments (lions, blues dogs) down the bottom. Surprising that North Melbourne are so high though, given they have performed below expectations. I guess those close losses must have got them a few covers.

I'm also a bit surprised that the hawks/port line has moved from 26.5 to 25.5, I thought it would be shifting the other way. It seems the public hasn't done it's homework on week after geelong/hawthorn matches, with Geelong also moving from -64.5 to -67.5. That number is starting to look very juicy.

[sando]

2013 ATS Stats

[ATTACH]58318[/ATTACH]

Mate what site is this from please?

[hedgejob]

Sando, it's from my own records.

Coop, I reckon that Geelong line move is a trap to suck in more money on them. Will Geelong play their best team against Melb right after a Hawks game?

[Coopertrooper]

Sando, it's from my own records.

Coop, I reckon that Geelong line move is a trap to suck in more money on them. Will Geelong play their best team against Melb right after a Hawks game?

I'm not sure whether they'll make too many changes, especially when there is no travel involved, but the numbers don't lie. Despite Melbourne being woeful this year, a 67 point start is huge.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I'm not sure whether they'll make too many changes, especially when there is no travel involved, but the numbers don't lie. Despite Melbourne being woeful this year, a 67 point start is huge.

Is the game at Kardinia Park?
From memory, the Cats rarely blow teams out when playing there.

[Coopertrooper]

Is the game at Kardinia Park?
From memory, the Cats rarely blow teams out when playing there.

They tend to play the lesser sides there and usually win by about 30-50 points. Will also depend on whether the game is high scoring or not - some games in Geelong can reach 180-200, otherwise they usualy don't get past 160 or so (Not certain on the numbers, but from memory).

[Gee]

Is the game at Kardinia Park?
From memory, the Cats rarely blow teams out when playing there.

The last few years, Cats TT and/or ATS have been auto plays at Kardinya.

That being said, 70 point spreads were unheard of until GC and GWS came into the league. I just leave the big spreads alone usually.

2010:

R4Geelong5.38.719.1423.21(159)dftdPort Adelaide3.27.38.310.4(64)SSApr 18 (Sun 2:10pm)DetailsR6Geelong7.213.719.1024.17(161)dftdRichmond0.22.54.97.11(53)SSMay 2 (Sun 1:10pm)DetailsR7Geelong4.07.412.819.12(126)dftdSydney3.05.27.39.5(59)SSMay 9 (Sun 1:10pm)DetailsR10Geelong5.59.614.818.13(121)dftdMelbourne2.14.47.610.7(67)SSMay 29 (Sat 2:10pm)DetailsR14Geelong5.38.412.914.14(98)dftdNorth Melbourne2.24.55.69.9(63)SSJul 4 (Sun 1:10pm)DetailsR17Geelong5.210.416.819.13(127)dftdBrisbane Lions0.34.66.89.10(64)SSJul 24 (Sat 2:10pm)DetailsR22Geelong1.75.810.1416.16(112)dftdWest Coast2.25.46.510.8(68)SSAug 28 (Sat 1:10pm)Details

2011

R3Geelong2.66.1111.1417.20(122)dftdPort Adelaide1.52.55.76.7(43)SSApr 10 (Sun 2:10pm)DetailsR7Geelong4.410.516.1119.13(127)dftdNorth Melbourne3.35.58.59.7(61)SSMay 7 (Sat 2:10pm)DetailsR11Geelong5.613.817.923.10(148)dftdWestern Bulldogs3.15.66.613.9(87)SSJun 4 (Sat 2:10pm)DetailsR14Geelong7.39.614.1019.11(125)dftdAdelaide1.12.24.610.13(73)SSJun 26 (Sun 1:10pm)DetailsR19Geelong8.320.428.837.11(233)dftdMelbourne0.31.45.47.5(47)SSJul 30 (Sat 2:10pm)DetailsR20Geelong8.118.421.829.14(188)dftdGold Coast3.03.06.16.2(38)SSAug 6 (Sat 2:10pm)DetailsR23Geelong2.55.78.1012.14(86)lost toSydney3.17.510.915.9(99)SSAug 27 (Sat 2:10pm)Details

2012

R4Geelong4.17.310.411.9(75)dftdRichmond3.13.67.109.11(65)SSApr 22 (Sun 1:10pm)DetailsR6Geelong3.59.1115.1417.17(119)dftdMelbourne3.06.110.511.10(76)SSMay 5 (Sat 1:45pm)DetailsR10Geelong4.27.313.819.12(126)dftdGWS Giants4.27.38.59.7(61)SSJun 2 (Sat 1:45pm)DetailsR14Geelong3.46.89.1014.15(99)dftdPort Adelaide2.32.76.98.13(61)SSJul 1 (Sun 1:10pm)DetailsR18Geelong4.39.710.1015.12(102)dftdAdelaide3.24.49.811.9(75)SSJul 28 (Sat 1:45pm)DetailsR22Geelong3.28.410.816.11(107)dftdWestern Bulldogs1.03.37.511.7(73)SSAug 26 (Sun 1:10pm)DetailsR23Geelong4.37.512.717.10(112)dftdSydney4.55.87.1211.12(78)SSSep 1 (Sat 1:45pm)Details

[Coopertrooper]

Line back to 65.5, looks like the good value is probably gone now, the line looks like it has steadied.

Hawks line now into 18.5 with news that Franklin hasn't travelled (but is rumoured to still be a chance to get there and play?) and with some rain on the radar. Put them into some doubles in other sports at the original line, so I've got a lot riding on the -30.5, but looks like I've ended up with a shocker of a line!

Play #3 - Collingwood 20-39, $4.20 X 0.5

A small play on the pies tonight. I thought this line was fairly sharp in the high 20's, so playing that it gets within a goal or so of the line for half a unit.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Collingwood 20-39, $4.20 X 0.5 WON

Good start, with the line being super sharp at -27.5, 27 points the eventual margin.

Round 16 (2 pending): 1-0 +1.60 units

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Port Adelaide/Hawthorn First Quarter Over 35.5, $1.90 X 3 (LUXBET)

One of my biggest plays of the year. The radar is showing that the rain may just hit from a strange fork in the clouds, but probably won't hit by game time. This line at Luxbet is tiny, so think it is a great play. Not sure how the weather will end up going, so playing first quarter is the safe way to go.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Port Adelaide/Hawthorn First Quarter Over 35.5, $1.90 X 3 (LUXBET) WON

Round 16: (2 pending): 2-0 +4.30 units

Over hits easily, but the hawks just 2 goals up at half time, really sweating the -30.5. They should probably be a bit further in front, not taking their chances, hopefully they do in the second half!

[trigga50]

nice hit on the parlay! wish I could say I tailed you. Your having an awesome weekend so far, keep it up

[Coopertrooper]

nice hit on the parlay! wish I could say I tailed you. Your having an awesome weekend so far, keep it up

Cheers Trigga, have been waiting for one of these goods one to hit, finally was able to nail one!　Will tidy up my record at the end of the round (my computer doesn't want to be kind), but I'm now up about 15 units for this week!Play #5 - West Coast QT +3.5, $1.90 X 1Play #6 - West Coast 1-39 (LUXBET), $3.50 X 1The derby match throws up a game which has huge consequences for both sides. West Coast need to win it to try and make the top 8, and Fremantle must win it if they want to finish top 4 (barring the bombers being punished and allowing them to jump a spot). At first glance this would appear to be a tough match up, with Fremantle slightly the better side. However, the form of Sandilands and Pavlich will not return overnight, so they are there to be 'exploited', in the sense that they can be kept quiet or be made to be accountable. McPharlin and Waters are both big outs, but with the size of the West Coast forwardline (plus the 2 ruckmen) McPharlin looks like he will be the bigger loss.West Coast's side doesn't look super strong at a glance, so the lines have moved out nicely here. They require a big start, and having lost the past 2 derby matches they are sure to come out with some real fire here. Playing the QT line and not backing West Coast to win the quarter in case they miss a few early shots, 1 unit.I also like the value available for West Coast to get up in this match. Most books have the 1-39 fairly tight, as not many feel West Coast can win it 40+ with Fremantle's defensive efforts. Luxbet still have a reasonable offering, playing a unit on it as well.

[Coopertrooper]

Cheers Trigga, have been waiting for one of these goods one to hit, finally was able to nail one!　Will tidy up my record at the end of the round (my computer doesn't want to be kind), but I'm now up about 15 units for this week!Play #5 - West Coast QT +3.5, $1.90 X 1Play #6 - West Coast 1-39 (LUXBET), $3.50 X 1The derby match throws up a game which has huge consequences for both sides. West Coast need to win it to try and make the top 8, and Fremantle must win it if they want to finish top 4 (barring the bombers being punished and allowing them to jump a spot). At first glance this would appear to be a tough match up, with Fremantle slightly the better side. However, the form of Sandilands and Pavlich will not return overnight, so they are there to be 'exploited', in the sense that they can be kept quiet or be made to be accountable. McPharlin and Waters are both big outs, but with the size of the West Coast forwardline (plus the 2 ruckmen) McPharlin looks like he will be the bigger loss.West Coast's side doesn't look super strong at a glance, so the lines have moved out nicely here. They require a big start, and having lost the past 2 derby matches they are sure to come out with some real fire here. Playing the QT line and not backing West Coast to win the quarter in case they miss a few early shots, 1 unit.I also like the value available for West Coast to get up in this match. Most books have the 1-39 fairly tight, as not many feel West Coast can win it 40+ with Fremantle's defensive efforts. Luxbet still have a reasonable offering, playing a unit on it as well.

[Coopertrooper]

Sorry guys, ignore those posts, my computer won't let me edit or delete or space anything. There are 2 plays in there (West Coast QT +3.5, $1.90 X 1), (West Coast (LUXBET), $3.50 X 1).

[Coopertrooper]

Play #1 - Parlay:
-Hawthorn -30.5, $2.10
-Collingwood 20-39, $4.20
-Richmond 1-39, $2.15

TOTAL: $18.96 X 0.5 WON

Play #2 - Hawthorn -30.5, $2.10 X 2 WON

Play #5 - West Coast QT +3.5, $1.90 X 1 LOSS
Play #6 - West Coast 1-39 (LUXBET), $3.50 X 1 LOSS

Round 16: 4-2 +13.48 units

West Coast unable to overcome the dockers despite putting up some real resistance. The week still ends well in the positive

YTD: 48-65 +28.08 units


Units risked: 136.5
ROI: +20.57%

Very happy to have 136.5 units risked for a return of 28.08 units, hopefully it will continue to grow before the year is out!

[Coopertrooper]

Again have been busy and have missed the opening lines, but these are what i have seen so far:

ROUND 17 LATE MONDAY LINES:

North Melbourne -3.5 / Carlton +3.5
Hawthorn -62.5 / Western Bulldogs +62.5
GWS +72.5 / Essendon -72.5
Gold Coast +29.5 / Collingwood -29.5
St Kilda +2.5 / Port Adelaide -2.5
Melbourne +29.5 / Brisbane -29.5
Richmond +3.5 / Fremantle -3.5
Adelaide +27.5 / Geelong -27.5
West Coast +13.5 / Sydney -13.5

[Coopertrooper]

ROUND 17

Play #1 - Parlay:
-Carlton 1-39, $2.70
-Port Adelaide -6.5, $2.10
-Fremantle -7.5, $2.10
-Sydney 1-39, $2.20

TOTAL: $26.20 X 0.5

Play #2 - Carlton 1-39, $2.70 X 1

Play #3 - Port Adelaide -6.5, $2.10 X 2

Carlton go in as slight underdogs against a hot and cold North Melbourne side, so to get these odds for 1-39 is outstanding. Carlton are somehow still an outside chance of making the top 8, while north Melbourne just had their season ended up in Brisbane. Expect North Melbourne to come back without the same edge to them, 40+ may be a good idea as a small hedge too.

Port Adelaide are under pressure, but come up against a poor St Kilda side. This line offers crazy value, I cannot believe it is so low, and it appears to be the best play this week. Port have a lot to play for, while the saints are now trying new things. Despite being at home, I see no way that St Kilda can cover this line here, a straight up 2 unit play.

Also going into this weeks value parlay are freo and sydney. Fremantle are still playing some very good football, and while Richmond are capable of upsets at home, it would still be a huge effort here. Another small line is very surprising. Finally, Sydney travel to Perth to take on the eagles, who are still full of fight, but not quite up to the top sides. They can push the swans, but 1-39 looks to be the play.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Port Adelaide -6.5, $2.10 X 2

　

　
Just noticed I put this in as 2 units, but this should be 4 (I have this as one of my best plays for the year), so:
　

　
Play #3A - Port Adelaide -6.5, $2.10 X 2
　

　
So the total is now 4 units on that play (I will record it as 1 won or 1 lost wager).

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - North Melbourne/Carlton Under 194.5 (BET365), $1.91 X 1.5

This total is not too surprising. Carlton have a ppg of 182 (190 at Etihad), while the roos have a ppg of 191 (207.5 at Etihad). However, North Melbourne are in serious trouble after losing to the lions last week and it is hard to tell where the team is going to go over the next 2 months. Will they be as attacking as they have been all year? Going all-out attack clearly isn't enough, so the roos need to learn some defensive pressure. Carlton are also struggling for form, but remain in the race for the finals. Their coach has been playing around with their defence, where they also need the most improvement. I'm expecting both sides to have a strong emphasis on defence, so playing the under for 1.5 units.

[hedgejob]

Recent Fri night games have been high scoring. Last 4 gone over.

Under 71 over 61

R16: 3 under 6 over
R15: 3 under 6 over
R14: 5 under 4 over
R13: 4 under 2 over
R12: 6 under 0 over
R11: 5 under 1 over
R10: 8 under 1 over
R9: 4 under 5 over
R8: 7 under 2 over
R7: 2 under 4 over
R6: 7 under 2 over
R5: 5 under 4 over
R4: 6 under 3 over
R3: 1 under 8 over
R2: 2 under 7 over
R1: 3 under 6 over

[hedgejob]

[hedgejob]

[dRavidC]

north melbourne are by no means out of the finals. they're only 4 points behind carlton and a win here would put them back in the mix. Carlton have been absolutely dreadful this past month, despite Mick Malthouse's under the coaching relm. The only team they've beaten have been the lowly saints. Just something to consider before having a play.

[Coopertrooper]

Hedge, interesting that the last couple have been in games with big swings (Collingwood coming from well behind in both). Only 1 of the last 4 at Etihad too.
.
　

north melbourne are by no means out of the finals. they're only 4 points behind carlton and a win here would put them back in the mix. Carlton have been absolutely dreadful this past month, despite Mick Malthouse's under the coaching relm. The only team they've beaten have been the lowly saints. Just something to consider before having a play.

　

　
Even if they win this week they will need port to lose. If port win they would still be 2 games out of the 8. They play Melbourne the next week, but they still have to play Essendon, Hawthorn, Geelong, Adelaide and Collingwood in the last 5 weeks, and I don't see them winning more than 1 of those matches. Even with an optimistic view, they still require Port, West Coast and Carlton to all lose most of their remaining games. I can't see how they can make it. I personally think that will be in their heads in this match.

[Coopertrooper]

Can't do a full update with my computer playing up, but am 1-1 and +0.2 units. Carlton just get the job done, but the total goes over. I feel that both sides showed why they are out of the top 8, they both can't get their defensive pressure right.

[Coopertrooper]

Still can't do a proper update on here, but just got buried by Port. Up by 46 points early in the match, they win by 5, 2 short of my line. That has to be my worst beat of the season, and when I was on port big. Stuff that.