5 over, 1 under.
Over and dog spreads are ruling.
Over and dog spreads are ruling.
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Comment -
Port -5.5
Under 182.5 (Its going to be damp and cold)
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Not much time for any big write ups thanks to Easter activities.
Play #10: collingwood 20-29, $8.50 X1
I think collingwood will be too good here without it being a complete thrashing, I see great value in this.
Play #11: collingwood kangaroos over 192.5, $1.88 X 2
Collingwood are not strong down back at the moment, and the Roos were a high scoring team last year, should be high scoring at etihad.Comment -
Miss the collingwood margin by 4 points, and missed the over by 3. Gutted. What a shocking weekend, can't take a trickComment -
6 over, 2 under.Comment -
Play #12: Geelong/hawthorn under 196.5, $1.88 X 2
Don't want to be put off by the shocking weekend thus far, as this is still a 2 unit play in my eyes. The hawks are desperate to break the kennet curse, and will be sure to stop the cats from scoring. They are dangerous up forward, and are a chance to blow this game out, but I feel the game is so open that the cats could win it. A fairly cool day at the 'G should give this a big chance, hopefully I'll save some face. Don't want my stuff to just be fade material all year, hoping i'm not off the mark and can nail this one!Comment -
Sorry for the late wrap-up, Easter kept me busy.
Round 1: 3-9, -6.88 units
Was hurt badly on the Carlton plays, and narrow misses on the Collingwood plays, with one at big odds. On another week they hit, and it ends up a week well in the positive, but that is the way it goes. A tough start with more upsets in a round than we've ever seen (not sure on what the old number would have been, but only 2 winners were favourites throughout all of betting this week, with 7 not). Hopefully this poor start can be undone over the next couple of weeks!Comment -
Time to start setting the sights on round 2, with some good games coming up. I've got an early play for Friday night:
Play #1: St Kilda +18.5, $1.92 X 1
Richmond head into this game as heavy favourites after playing some very good patches of footy against the blues. I expect most will be playing the tigers here, but I felt they were exposed for fitness last week. St Kilda were completely off their game against the suns, and hence there will be little support for them, but I think they'll get back to playing some good football after the wake up call from last week. The tigers put a fair bit of effort into round 1, so I'm not sure how much they will have left this week.Comment -
The tigs have had a longer break, it's a saints home game but its at the mcg! Something to do with compensating Richmond members because of the cairns contract. So there will still be a much bigger Richmond crowd.
Can't see us dropping this one.Comment -
The longer break has turned out to be more of a curse in recent years. I did an analysis of it on another site a while back, and the number of upsets when a team had an extra 2 days break was astounding, certainly not what I expected to see when doing the numbers. I'll look and see if I can find it somewhere, but I lost my own copy of it.
Play #2: St Kilda 20-39, $9.00 X 0.5
A small play on the saints to kick away at the end. The tigers showed signs of fatigue last week in the last quarter, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it again. This is too much of a value play to pass on.Comment -
Love the Saints play glComment -
u194.5
'
gl
Comment -
6 over, 4 under
Edit: Last 3 underComment -
Riewoldt is a cancer for the Saints; and they made a lot of amateur mistakes. Still got some quality players and I think they will be a $ earner this year that is consistently under valuedComment -
Yes they are like the old Detroit Pistons, they play tough and dirty often in absence of talent to back it up. How slow and bumbling did they look against the Tigers? And yet they still coveredComment -
Sorry I haven't replied to any of these yet, but good work keeping tabs on how they are going, will be handy for reflection for next season in particular.
Some of the turnovers were shocking. The tigers really should have won by more, I still am a little unsure of how well they run out games, but tigers fans will be very happy to be winning close one's. Grinding out wins (esoecially compared to last years close losses) is the difference between playing finals footy or going on a September holiday.
A few more weeks will tell us a lot more about both sides.Comment -
Play #3 Bulldogs/Fremantle Over 174.5, $1.88 X 2
Not sure why the total for this game is so low. The match is at Etihad, and the doggies aren't terrific down back, at least on paper. Fremantle should just about hit 3 figures in this match, so it looks to be a solid play here.
Play #4 Brisbane Win, $2.05 X 1
The lions will be seething after their performance against the dogs, and take on Adealide, who appear to have issues up forward. This game looks like being a grind, which should suit the lions. The crows just aren't doing enough to pose a major threat, and have to travel to the Gabba, where Leuenberger will also return for the lions. I'll also be looking for the total tomorrow, looking to play anything under 180 or above.
Play #5 Parlay:
+ Sydney/Sydney, $1.25
+ Brisbane +30.5, $1.22
+ Melbourne +69.5, $1.23
TOTAL: $1.86 X 2
I really like the look of this parlay. Sydney to lead at half time and win is a steal at $1.25, while Brisbane and Melbourne shouldn't be blown out of the water. Happy to roll with 2 units here.
Hopefully tomorrow will be a fruitful day
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Play #6 Melbourne +38.5, $2.10 X 1
The last 3 games between the bombers and dees have been at the MCG, and all 3 have been won by Melbourne. The game before that was won by Essendon, but at Etihad. Essendon should be able to shake the monkey off the back in this game, but the dees match up well, and shouldn't be blown out of the water again, or will be facing a long season ahead, with less upside than any other club in the AFL. They can't afford that, so I'm expecting a better showing from them.Comment -
Sweating on the dogs/freo over. Looked home when I left halfway through the 3rd, and then no goals for about 10-15 minutes, strange game!Comment -
Laid big on + 42.5 on the Gold Coast..
Geezzzz.. that was close... 1.5 win..
Over easy. NiceComment -
Gutsy play, you never know with the swans. They don't usually kill sides, but they are capable of playing 4 good quarters against a lower side, which can blow the margin out.
Round 2: 2-2 +1.18 units (1 pending)
YTD: 5-10 -5.7 units
Disappointing that the lions were run over at the end, but the over still holds on after some slow scoring for the last third of the match. Parlay has 1 leg left to go to collect.Comment -
10 over 5 under
(4 over, 1 under today)Comment -
Cats v North . U 198.5
Scumwood v Blues. O 182.5
Coast v Hawks. U 188.5
GL
Comment -
In a rush to head off to today's game, so I'll fix up my record later. Fair to say Melbourne are truly pathetic, how a club could show so little soul is pathetic. You have to wonder if their future lies with this administration and in this state...
Play #7: Collingwood 20-39, $4.50 X 2
I really like us today. The blues have some big outs in Hampson and Betts, while Seedsman and Shaw return for the pies. Carlton have matched up well on Collingwood in recent years, but it looks unlikely to continue today. Good odds for the pies to get past the line without it being a blow-out. 2 unit play, will be do or die for this week after last nights results.
GL on your plays today!Comment -
13 over 5 under
Early trend is clear.Comment -
Wow, just wow. The pies cover the line of 16.5, but fall short of 20. Second week in a row the pies have fallen 3 points short for one of my big plays, what a killer to go along with a tough round 1. This is just getting uglier at the moment.
Round 2: 2-5 -3.82 units
YTD: 5-13 -10.70 units
Just have to keep plugging away, and wait for the tide to turn. A terrible start to the year, but not going to go out with any crazy big plays, just have to get some positive weeks under the belt.Comment -
Yep, the trend has continued on that is for sure. I hate how late most totals go up, I often don't have time to get on during the morning/day of a match, I don't get to play too many of them. But will be looking for the unders coming up, there will be some good value around when the totals adjust over the next week.Comment -
2011 round 3 and 4 trend was under.
2012 trend was over until round 4.
Looks like by round 4 fatigue sets in and trend goes under for few rounds.Comment