Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread

[Coopertrooper]

Line markers have been pretty sharp so far this year, so took my favourite lines for a value play:

Play #1 Parlay:

Fremantle 1-19 $4.00
St Kilda 20-39 $4.20
Geelong 1-39 $2.25

Total $37.80 X 0.5

Fremantle and Essendon will play a good match, while GWS should still be competitive against the saints. The Geelong/Carlton game is tough to judge, so have gone for a wider margin.

Also, the early lines for round 3 (all from sportsbet):

Freo -12.5 / Ess +12.5
Roos +11.5 / Syd -11.5
Melb +59.5 / WCE -59.5
GWS + 25.5 / Stk -25.5
GC +16.5 / Bris -16.5
Geel -11.5 / Carl +11.5
rich -24.5 / Dogs +24.5
Coll +7.5 / Hawk -7.5
Port +13.5 / Adel -13.5

[brettels]

Saints at the line I reckon

[Coopertrooper]

Play #2: Fremantle 1-39, $2.15 X 1.5

More drama for the bombers today, with texts found between Hird and Dank, as well as Demetriou suggesting that hird stand down as the Essendon coach. These distractions have to start weighing on the bombers, despite how important this game is. Fremantle have shown good early form, and should come away victorious here. Couldn't decide whether this was a 1 or 2 unit play, so went with 1.5

[Coopertrooper]

Saints at the line I reckon

Saints line has moved from -25.5 to -33.5, hope you got on it early!

[Lookingtostart]

Stay safe, I like the Dockers, those 1-39 lines are always tricky.

[hedgejob]

This is the sort of game where Freo aren't likely to show up.

[Coopertrooper]

Can't buy luck this year. Wow. Fremantle choked a big lead, and choked so many late shots. A kick from 10m out... seriously.

Round 3: 0-2 -2 units


That kills the parlay at good odds too. What a joke.

[Coopertrooper]

Just have to put that one down as unlucky, given fremantle scored 7 behinds from the last 9 scoring shots of the game. But can't afford to keep having weeks like this.

Some big plays tomorrow, if all goes poorly I may take a bit of a break and try to re-think how I'm approaching it.

Play #3 - Sydney 1-39, $2.30 X 1

The roos have been unable to finish games off, and should still be competitive here. The swans have had an easy start to the year, and should be tuned up enough to ensure they pick up 4 points. Hard to see how the roos midfield will overcome the dour midfield and half backs of the swans.

Play #4 - Brisbane 1-39, $2.20 X 1

The lions come off a disappointing loss, and face the suns. The suns have been playing some good football, and shouldn't get blown away here, with a fairly strong side. The lions haven't been able to notch up a win, so their focus will likely be on just doing enough to ensure they open their account, and not on trying to blow the suns out of the water.

Play #5 - Geelong 1-39, $2.30 X 2

I like this play. While the blues are still desperate to pick up their first win, the cats have got to 2-0, and will want to make the most of it, in a year most think they will start their decline down the ladder. The cats look the better side on paper, and I think they'll be the better side on the night.

Play #6 Parlay:
- Sydney 1-39 $2.30
- Brisbane 1-39 $2.20
- Geelong 1-39 $2.30

TOTAL $11.64 X 1

All-up with the 3 plays above. I think this is as good a time as ever for results to settle down, or else AFL will be appearing just about uncappable at this stage of this season! Hopefully I'm only burrying myself here so far, hope that some plays start to hit comfortably, with a bit of luck here and there. GL this weekend to everyone trying to make sense of this round

[Coopertrooper]

Play #3 - Sydney 1-39, $2.30 X 1 WON

Play #4 - Brisbane 1-39, $2.20 X 1 WON

Play #5 - Geelong 1-39, $2.30 X 2 WON

Play #6 Parlay:
- Sydney 1-39 $2.30
- Brisbane 1-39 $2.20
- Geelong 1-39 $2.30

TOTAL $11.64 X 1 WON

Got some luck at the right time with the sydney margin, while the lions just held on, and the cats finished comfortably in the range. To get that luck in a parlay as well was a huge help, and helps to undo the turbulent start to the AFL season!

Swans were just far too good for the roos, who again struggled in the second half, they really need to work on finishing off 4 full quarters. The suns gave the lions a huge scare, but the lions just did enough to hold on. The suns are starting to look very dangerous at home, I believe they had won their last 3 at Metricon Stadium before tonight. The cats showed their class to overcome the blues in a match that was at times scrappy, the way the cats like it. The blues continue to fight, but are desperate for a win.

Round 2: 4-2 +13.74 units
YTD: 9-15 +3.04 units

[Crowing Capers]

Great day CT.

I got a similar multi home . thank farkkk for lindsay Thomas hey !!!!

[Coopertrooper]

I don't see any clear plays at the line, and the early total for the tigers/dogs looks right in the 190's. Have to keep respecting how sharp the lines have been when making plays at the moment.

Play #7 - Richmond 20-39, $4.30 X 1

The line from 24.5 to 26.5, and the tigers have not looked like slaughtering a side as of yet. The dogs aren't much chop, but I'm not expecting them to lose by 40+

Play #8 - Adelaide 1-19, $4.00 X 1

This line is solid at 13.5, and the showdown matches have brought out some good contests in recent times. Either side can win this, and I'm expecting a fierce contest, and the price is too good to pass up here.

Play #9 Parlay:
- Richmond 20-39, $4.30
-Adelaide 1-19, $4.00

TOTAL: $17.20 X 0.5

Need one of these plays to hit for a positive Sunday, and having a small bet on the double to ensure that if both get up it will be a very nice return

The Collingwood/Hawthorn game is too tough for me to find enough value, so no play for me on that game. Hopefully the tide has turned, and we can start to hurt the books

[Coopertrooper]

Great day CT.

I got a similar multi home . thank farkkk for lindsay Thomas hey !!!!

Cheers CC! I was working but the game was on a screen near me, but with the minutes of the time cut off. I saw him kick that goal and thought "I wonder if that is 00:05", I think quite a few people were on the swans at that margin!

[hedgejob]

21 over, 6 under

(round 3: 8 over, 1 under)

Amazing!

[Coopertrooper]

Play #7 - Richmond 20-39, $4.30 X 1 LOSS

Play #8 - Adelaide 1-19, $4.00 X 1 LOSS

Play #9 Parlay:
- Richmond 20-39, $4.30
-Adelaide 1-19, $4.00

TOTAL: $17.20 X 0.5 LOSS

Tigers ending up running all over the dogs, who haven't shown any form since their round 1 victory, and Adelaide were very ordinary in blowing a 5 goal lead. Unlucky on the crows game, and on reflection the tigers game was a poor bet, they're a much better team than the doggies.

Round 3: 4-5 +11.24 units
YTD: 9-18 +0.54 units

[Coopertrooper]

21 over, 6 under

(round 3: 8 over, 1 under)

Amazing!

Surprising how long it has lasted. I was at the pies game, and we got soaked for most of the match, and it still sailed over a fairly high total by a mile. Defenders aren't having a great start to the year!

[Coopertrooper]

Already a bit late on this, as the money has already started to come.

Round 4:

Play #1 - Collingwood -5.5, $1.92 X 2

There is already some money for the pies ML (1.77 into 1.72), which I see as an over-reaction to yesterday's match. Richmond's form have them at much lower odds than in previous times, but Collingwood should still be too good here. 2 unit play.

Also, the opening lines for round 4:

Sydney -8.5 / Geelong +8.5
Hawthorn -30.5 / Fremantle +30.5
Richmond +5.5 / Collingwood -5.5
St Kilda +18.5 / Essendon -18.5
Gold Coast +12.5 / Port Adelaide -12.5
West Coast -19.5 / Carlton +19.5
Melbourne -8.5 / GWS +8.5
Adelaide -36.5 / Bulldoges +36.5
North Melbourne -22.5 / Brisbane +22.5

[Coopertrooper]

Getting my plays on early while 1) I think the value is there, and 2) because I'll probably be unlikely to post any plays on Saturday.

Play #2 - St Kilda +18.5, $1.92 X 2

I think the books have got this one wrong. I had this at about +8.5, the saints are still quite a dour team (they have the 4th lowest total score from the first 3 rounds, I'll put the full list in this thread after this post), and the bombers are still running off emotion, which, surely, has to start taking it's toll soon. Add to that suspensions to Ryder/Kommer and the number is juicy, playing 2 units here.

Play # 3 Multibet:
-Hawthorn 20-39, $4.20
-Collingwood -5.5, $1.92
-St Kilda +18.5, $1.92

TOTAL: $15.48 X 1

Going for another multi here (I usually try to find one each week at good value, as I feel they are underrated in many punters eyes). I like the pies and saints to cover, and also adding the hawks to get a comfortable win against the dockers, without blowing them out of the water. The hawks forwards match up well on the pies defenders, especially with maxwell out, which made a huge difference.

[Coopertrooper]

TOTAL MATCH SCORES (BOTH FOR AND AGAINST) FOR FIRST 3 ROUNDS:

1) Wce 694
2) Melb 667
3) Hawk 660
4) Carl 646
5) Coll 642
6) Kang 633

Most of these teams have been the higher scoring teams for the last few years, except for Melbourne, who are getting such huge belting at the moment they have ended up high on this list.

7) Port 626
8) Geel 621
9) GWS 602
10) Adel 599
11) Syd 592
12) Rich 591
13) Dogs 573
14) Ess 559
15) St k 556
16) Bris 545
17) GC 540
18) Freo 512 (The Ross Lyon effect)

[GroundnPound]

Like I said about the dragons in nrl last year fade em every game you will be rich and I told my mates with the Lakers fade them ATS and you will be rich. This season I am saying fade St Kilda ATS and you will be rich and take Richmond you will be rich. Saints can be maybe spot backed but overall they are so dysfunctional now.

[Coopertrooper]

I'm not sold on the tigers just yet. However, if they are to have a breakout season, it makes St Kilda's form look reasonable (barring the loss to the GC, they were asleep in round 1). I don't like the saints either, but I see plenty of potential in getting some early lines on them. they are being rated 3-4 goals behind sides that have previously been in the same section of the ladder, but they're still an okay defensive team. Their attack is stuffed at the moment though, and their midfield is aging. They will be a fade team late in the year.

[hedgejob]

Great spot for a Port let down.

[Rustyglobes]

What do we think of Carlton against the Eagles? Eagles haven't been too impressive this year and the blues have been there abouts in all of their losses so far this season.

I think the blues can stick with the eagles in the midfield but then the eagles have the obvious advantage in the forwardline with Darling, Kennedy and Lecras. The Blues forward line is dysfunctional with Rowe who is playing his 3rd game being their only tall marking option up front.


Does anyone think that the blues can win this one out right? An 0-4 start with new coach Mick Malthouse would be the last thing they would want, it would make it very hard for them to make the finals (i know it's very early still) from here.

[Coopertrooper]

Port... I'm not sure. The line looks pretty sharp to me, I think they'll get the win, but with a lower team that has a good start you never know when they could have a let-down.

I thought Carlton would be 1-4 with the 1 against Richmond, but now I think they'll be 0-5 (and then most likely get to 5-5). West Coast can't keep under-performing either, with 2 losses to start off with, and then a poor first half against the dees. Both teams have a lot to lose here, so I probably won't be using that as an angle either way here. I just think West Coast are the better side, so will be leaning West Coast 1-39. Might play that in the next day or 2.

[Rustyglobes]

Port... I'm not sure. The line looks pretty sharp to me, I think they'll get the win, but with a lower team that has a good start you never know when they could have a let-down.I thought Carlton would be 1-4 with the 1 against Richmond, but now I think they'll be 0-5 (and then most likely get to 5-5). West Coast can't keep under-performing either, with 2 losses to start off with, and then a poor first half against the dees. Both teams have a lot to lose here, so I probably won't be using that as an angle either way here. I just think West Coast are the better side, so will be leaning West Coast 1-39. Might play that in the next day or 2.

Yeah good points there mate, for what it's worth i agree with you and think the eagles will be too strong in another close encounter. Interesting to see that the odds for the magpies keep going up, i'm thinking the public is all over the tigers strong start to the season and arepumping them up. At 1.92 i'm pretty keen on the pies in this one after last weeks effort and isn't it Dane Swans 200th this week also?

[Coopertrooper]

I'm surprised at how the odds have moved. Early week move for the pies, then a big shift to the tigers. Huge value with the pies ML, looks like it will hit even money at this rate. Yeah, it is also Swan's 200th game this week.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Sydney V Geelong 171-180 points, $6.60 X 1

I had the total points line for this match in the mid 170's, and most books have it in the high 170's, so I felt this was a strong play. This is a market that is often overlooked, but the value here is terrific. The swans at the SCG are a reasonably dour side, and the cats are known to play out a few scrappy games. With the season still producing some high scores, this total looks about right.

Play #5 - West Coast 1-39, $2.15 X 1

This is my last chance to get plays on until Saturday night, so thought I'd ensure I got on this in time. As mentioned above, I think the eagles will be a little too good for the blues, in a game where both sides have a lot to play for. Sticking with 1 unit here and not 2, as both sides are still a bit unpredictable at this stage of the year.

[Puda]

On the Swans 1-39.5

Nail biting game one suspects.

[Coopertrooper]

I'm surprised at how the odds have moved. Early week move for the pies, then a big shift to the tigers. Huge value with the pies ML, looks like it will hit even money at this rate. Yeah, it is also Swan's 200th game this week.

Seems like a large chunk of the move came after Cloke injured his thumb at training today, serious doubts that he will play.

[Coopertrooper]

Play #4 - Sydney V Geelong 171-180 points, $6.60 X 1 LOSS

I had the total points line for this match in the mid 170's, and most books have it in the high 170's, so I felt this was a strong play. This is a market that is often overlooked, but the value here is terrific. The swans at the SCG are a reasonably dour side, and the cats are known to play out a few scrappy games. With the season still producing some high scores, this total looks about right.

This was killed by the 93 point first term. The line wasn't bad, but that first quarter was one out of the box. Largest score against a Longmire coached team says it all. Well done to those who have continued backing the overs!

Round 4: 0-1 (4 pending) -1 unit

[hedgejob]

22 over, 6 under

Last 9 games have gone over (most no even close to under).

[Coopertrooper]

22 over, 6 under

Last 9 games have gone over (most no even close to under).

I think it will start to settle now, last night was an aberration. But if you've jumped on before now in that run of 9 (even then it was 13-6 before that) you'd have set up a very nice bankroll!

[hedgejob]

I normally like to ride trends but it looks like the over trend might snap today. Some very high totals.

[Domestic]

I normally like to ride trends but it looks like the over trend might snap today. Some very high totals.

I know what you mean, I took the Hawks/Dockers Over and now starting to regret it. Considering the Saints/Bombers Under tonight too.

[Coopertrooper]

I think the 2 early games have the right totals, but I agree about the saints game.

Play #6 - St Kilda/Essendon Under 204.5, $1.88 X 2

Essendon had their scores blown out after the game with the dees. Both defences have been good this year, and the game total would be at about 170 just looking at what they've let through thus far. That total would be a fair way off, but 204.5 is too much of an over-correction. 2 unit play.

[Puda]

I know what you mean, I took the Hawks/Dockers Over and now starting to regret it. Considering the Saints/Bombers Under tonight too.

Im on the under in the hawks game.. gl ..