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  • zxqwpdbg
    SBR Hustler
    • 10-25-14
    • 68

    #526
    Originally posted by nash13
    the difference is that in the second choice you win if the kings win in overtime or shoot out. first choice not. our trends here depend on Money Line betting.
    i thought -0.5 meant in regulation. each one i listed had a -0.5 and a ml selection. why should i take -0.5 for -136 when i can take it for +144?
    Comment
    • smithah2
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-01-14
      • 743

      #527
      i think it means if kings win in a shootout the -0.5 in the OT included would lose. They need to win by 1 after OT. not by penalties.
      Comment
      • smithah2
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-01-14
        • 743

        #528
        Hey guys, been coming here and reading this thread alot. I am not necessarilly a noob as have been betting soccer for awhile, hockey the past 3 months. I would love to understand what everyone is saying here. Can someone explain please. You can use any example I just dont understand the jargon and I cant tell what the picks are either. Thanks guys.
        Comment
        • emceeaye
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 08-20-13
          • 704

          #529
          Here is the SDQL for one of Ross B's described situations for today:

          HF and p:W and op:AW and op:division=opo:division and season>=2009

          Bet on any home favorite coming off a win against an opponent that is coming off a divisional road win since 2009. The HF percentage of winning increases as the winning percentage of the opponent's last opponent decreases (e.g., opo:WP<45).

          add opo:WP<45

          looks solid

          update: I remember seeing another solid one on them this morning from spreadsheet, but don't have it handy...if anyone has it handy, please post?
          Comment
          • emceeaye
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 08-20-13
            • 704

            #530
            WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009 and o:WP<48 and WP>50 and day!=Friday and day!=Monday

            WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009 and o:WP<48 and WP>50 and day!=Friday and day!=Monday and L

            WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009 and o:WP<48 and WP>50 and day!=Friday and day!=Monday and L and n:L

            WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009 and o:WP<48 and WP>50 and day!=Friday and day!=Monday and L and n:L and nn:L
            Comment
            • emceeaye
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 08-20-13
              • 704

              #531
              Ducks -1.5 +140

              Here's the query for one of Ross Benjamin's picks for today:

              F and po:goals=0 and p:HW and op:AW and season>=2010

              He's saying that rather than go with the overly juiced ML, it's worth taking the ever risky PL...Is he right?

              He cites the average goal differential in this situation as justification for a PL pick:1.58.

              But what's dangerous about that is that if only a few abnormally high margin of victories occur for the home team, then the average differential gets skewed by those outlier games, thereby producing an inaccurate reflection of what happened and therefore, what is likely to happen...

              To get an additional (and perhaps more accurate) index of whether -1.5 is the right pick, look at the number of games every year since 2010 in which margin of victory exceeded 1 goal for that home team out of those games that the home team won:

              So, adding W and margin>1 for every year since 2010, we get:

              2010: 6/9
              2011: 7/9
              2012: 9/12
              2013: 13/17
              2014: 2/3

              2010-2014: 37/50 (74%)

              Based on this additional evidence, namely that 74% of the home team's wins in this situation were by a margin of more than one goal, I think he's right, that PL is the right pick
              Comment
              • JMon
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-11-09
                • 9800

                #532
                ya I wish they would have PL figures in , like MLB but everyone is scrapping them to pieces..so I'm sure the free stuff is going to end.
                Comment
                • JMon
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-11-09
                  • 9800

                  #533
                  Originally posted by emceeaye
                  Ducks -1.5 +140

                  Here's the query for one of Ross Benjamin's picks for today:

                  F and po:goals=0 and p:HW and op:AW and season>=2010

                  He's saying that rather than go with the overly juiced ML, it's worth taking the ever risky PL...Is he right?

                  He cites the average goal differential in this situation as justification for a PL pick:1.58.

                  But what's dangerous about that is that if only a few abnormally high margin of victories occur for the home team, then the average differential gets skewed by those outlier games, thereby producing an inaccurate reflection of what happened and therefore, what is likely to happen...

                  To get an additional (and perhaps more accurate) index of whether -1.5 is the right pick, look at the number of games every year since 2010 in which margin of victory exceeded 1 goal for that home team out of those games that the home team won:

                  So, adding W and margin>1 for every year since 2010, we get:

                  2010: 6/9
                  2011: 7/9
                  2012: 9/12
                  2013: 13/17
                  2014: 2/3

                  2010-2014: 37/50 (74%)

                  Based on this additional evidence, namely that 74% of the home team's wins in this situation were by a margin of more than one goal, I think he's right, that PL is the right pick
                  A 1.1 margin on <=-200 ?????? and only since 2010
                  Comment
                  • nash13
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-21-14
                    • 1122

                    #534
                    Originally posted by JMon
                    ya I wish they would have PL figures in , like MLB but everyone is scrapping them to pieces..so I'm sure the free stuff is going to end.
                    it has been free for 6 years now. i hope they don't limit everything.
                    Comment
                    • JMon
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-11-09
                      • 9800

                      #535
                      Originally posted by nash13
                      it has been free for 6 years now. i hope they don't limit everything.
                      Ya I now...they have changed the way I cap and have made me money the last three years, when betting is impossible. They deserve to charge and hope they do.
                      Comment
                      • emceeaye
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 08-20-13
                        • 704

                        #536
                        Originally posted by JMon
                        A 1.1 margin on <=-200 ?????? and only since 2010

                        Yeah, interesting... Just goes to show that sometimes there are more influential factors than simply how much of a favorite a team is that predicts a larger margin of victory. I believe there's something about the combination of the variables that make up this whole situation that better predicts it.
                        Comment
                        • Cutler'sThumb
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-06-11
                          • 287

                          #537
                          Originally posted by emceeaye
                          Here is the SDQL for one of Ross B's described situations for today:

                          HF and p:W and op:AW and op:division=opo:division and season>=2009

                          Bet on any home favorite coming off a win against an opponent that is coming off a divisional road win since 2009. The HF percentage of winning increases as the winning percentage of the opponent's last opponent decreases (e.g., opo:WP<45).

                          add opo:WP<45

                          looks solid

                          update: I remember seeing another solid one on them this morning from spreadsheet, but don't have it handy...if anyone has it handy, please post?
                          Here's a pretty good one to back your's up (doesn't look too good on the PL tho):

                          AD and p:AW and p:division = po:division and op:HW and rest not in [2] and o:rest > 0 and season>=2009
                          Comment
                          • JMon
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-11-09
                            • 9800

                            #538
                            Many, many solid trends are active today...bol fellas
                            Comment
                            • emceeaye
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 08-20-13
                              • 704

                              #539
                              Originally posted by JMon
                              Many, many solid trends are active today...bol fellas
                              pray tell, JMon
                              Comment
                              • zxqwpdbg
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 10-25-14
                                • 68

                                #540
                                Originally posted by JMon
                                Many, many solid trends are active today...bol fellas
                                i went through about 30-40 trends, not seeing a lot going on tonight. i saw two plays i like but they are on opposite teams. also a couple totals, but i am trying to stay away from them now.
                                Comment
                                • Cutler'sThumb
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-06-11
                                  • 287

                                  #541
                                  Originally posted by emceeaye
                                  pray tell, JMon
                                  Some of the ones he has posted previously are active.

                                  Wild/Coyotes Under 5.5:
                                  H and 6.5 >= total >= 5.5 and tA(o:goals) >= 2.85 and p:W and 7 >= p:margin >= 4 and o:rest < 2

                                  Several really strong ones on the Flames/Sharks game, but they are conflicting.
                                  (oA(p:goals,N=2)) / (tA(p:shots on goal,N=2))<.09 and 154>line>145 and rest<3 and o:rest<2
                                  AD and p:AW and p:division = po:division and op:HW and rest not in [2] and o:rest > 0 and season>2009

                                  Emceeaye, here is one that you posted before that supports Sharks:
                                  HF and p:W and op:AW and op:division=opo:division and season>=2009

                                  Two on Sharks, one on Flames. Playing probability, I think Sharks are the best play. JMon's excellent 63-14 trend on Sharks has just lost two in a row; three in a row seems unlikely. His 104-77, 43% ROI trend on Flames has gone 8-1 and is a dog trend...seems like it's time to catch a loss. Plus emceeaye's trend on Sharks is very solid.

                                  BOL to all!

                                  Comment
                                  • zxqwpdbg
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 10-25-14
                                    • 68

                                    #542
                                    saw an idea on the net somewhere. can't remember where, but i don't get the exact results they are. i tried some of my own tweaking but no luck, any ideas?

                                    terrible away team after they get shutout. 58-29 - 62%roi
                                    Comment
                                    • Cutler'sThumb
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 12-06-11
                                      • 287

                                      #543
                                      I just added a handful of trends to the spreadsheet. Generally lower volume trends JMon or emceeaye have posted on the thread along the way. I've looked for it and don't think there is redundancy, but it's possible.
                                      Comment
                                      • nash13
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-21-14
                                        • 1122

                                        #544
                                        good job cutler, i remove some duplicates and edit formatting.
                                        Comment
                                        • emceeaye
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 08-20-13
                                          • 704

                                          #545
                                          Jets ML and PL

                                          AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010

                                          Is PL pick justified? How many of the wins in each year was by a margin of more than 1?

                                          2010: 7/10
                                          2011: 7/9
                                          2012: 5/8
                                          2013: 13/20
                                          2014: 6/10
                                          total from 2010-2014: 38/57=66%

                                          66% of wins for opponent in this query exceeded 1 goal.

                                          picks: Jets ML and PL
                                          Comment
                                          • emceeaye
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 08-20-13
                                            • 704

                                            #546
                                            Blackhawks ML

                                            WP>o:WP+18 and H and month=1 and season>=2009 and WP>=60

                                            update: Just looked up what happens when it's a double revenge situation, and played stars +1.5 in-game

                                            Regardless of outcome, lesson here is to always look up what happened during same season previous matches.
                                            Comment
                                            • Emf66
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 01-05-15
                                              • 600

                                              #547
                                              Originally posted by emceeaye
                                              AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010

                                              Is PL pick justified? How many of the wins in each year was by a margin of more than 1?

                                              2010: 7/10
                                              2011: 7/9
                                              2012: 5/8
                                              2013: 13/20
                                              2014: 6/10
                                              total from 2010-2014: 38/57=66%

                                              66% of wins for opponent in this query exceeded 1 goal.

                                              picks: Jets ML and PL
                                              Hi, I have completed a ton of research and Im currently in the process of hiring extra researchers, how much are you guys doing? I havent read the thread from the start but Im sure we could exchange ideas
                                              Comment
                                              • emceeaye
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 08-20-13
                                                • 704

                                                #548
                                                Originally posted by Emf66
                                                Hi, I have completed a ton of research and Im currently in the process of hiring extra researchers, how much are you guys doing? I havent read the thread from the start but Im sure we could exchange ideas
                                                Hi Emf66,
                                                Welcome. I would definitely consider a lot of what we do here research. Whether it's trying to arrive at as many queries as possible to express as many different variables as possible that influence the outcome of games, or summarizing the performance of those queries, or developing a formula to beat use the queries in a way that will produce the best ROI possible, we are all involved in some aspect of research. While I'm personally planning to analyze these variables using real stats when I have time, right now the available database will have to do...Feel free to look through the SDQL threads, as there is very useful information them. And, of course we would appreciate any ideas you can share--We all like to contribute and help one another here.
                                                Comment
                                                • emceeaye
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 08-20-13
                                                  • 704

                                                  #549
                                                  Originally posted by emceeaye
                                                  AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010

                                                  Is PL pick justified? How many of the wins in each year was by a margin of more than 1?

                                                  2010: 7/10
                                                  2011: 7/9
                                                  2012: 5/8
                                                  2013: 13/20
                                                  2014: 6/10
                                                  total from 2010-2014: 38/57=66%

                                                  66% of wins for opponent in this query exceeded 1 goal.

                                                  picks: Jets ML and PL
                                                  active again today

                                                  Blackhawks ML and PL
                                                  Comment
                                                  • nash13
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-21-14
                                                    • 1122

                                                    #550
                                                    Here is what is active for the NHL tonight:
                                                    Senators@Rangers
                                                    Senators ML:
                                                    04,05,09,29,74,76

                                                    Penguins@Flyers
                                                    Penguins ML:04,05
                                                    Flyers ML:30

                                                    Wild@Red Wings
                                                    Wild ML:04,05,09,74,143

                                                    Bruins@Stars
                                                    Bruins ML:04,05,09,74
                                                    Stars ML:32,40,136,154

                                                    Canucks@Lightning
                                                    Canucks ML:76
                                                    Lightning ML:17,28,136
                                                    Under:69,96

                                                    Predators@Canadiens
                                                    Predators ML:18,38,143

                                                    Coyotes@Blackhawks
                                                    Coyotes ML:19,30,76,90,93,133
                                                    Blackhawks ML:136,152
                                                    Under:91

                                                    Capitals@Oilers
                                                    Capitals ML:136,149
                                                    Comment
                                                    • emceeaye
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 08-20-13
                                                      • 704

                                                      #551
                                                      Originally posted by nash13
                                                      Here is what is active for the NHL tonight:
                                                      Senators@Rangers
                                                      Senators ML:
                                                      04,05,09,29,74,76

                                                      Penguins@Flyers
                                                      Penguins ML:04,05
                                                      Flyers ML:30

                                                      Wild@Red Wings
                                                      Wild ML:04,05,09,74,143

                                                      Bruins@Stars
                                                      Bruins ML:04,05,09,74
                                                      Stars ML:32,40,136,154

                                                      Canucks@Lightning
                                                      Canucks ML:76
                                                      Lightning ML:17,28,136
                                                      Under:69,96

                                                      Predators@Canadiens
                                                      Predators ML:18,38,143

                                                      Coyotes@Blackhawks
                                                      Coyotes ML:19,30,76,90,93,133
                                                      Blackhawks ML:136,152
                                                      Under:91

                                                      Capitals@Oilers
                                                      Capitals ML:136,149
                                                      Thanks Nash!

                                                      Just FYI, when I spot checked the queries you listed as active for Hawks/Coyotes game, I noticed that NHL19 and NHL133 were not active...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • nash13
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-21-14
                                                        • 1122

                                                        #552
                                                        NHL 19 isnt active but 133 is.
                                                        I will report that bug.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • emceeaye
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 08-20-13
                                                          • 704

                                                          #553
                                                          Originally posted by nash13
                                                          NHL 19 isnt active but 133 is.
                                                          I will report that bug.
                                                          Oh ok, yeah, it's active, but it's not active on the Coyotes/Hawks game. So another bug in the tool may be that its returning active results but attaching them to the wrong game...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • nash13
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-21-14
                                                            • 1122

                                                            #554
                                                            Originally posted by emceeaye
                                                            Oh ok, yeah, it's active, but it's not active on the Coyotes/Hawks game. So another bug in the tool may be that its returning active results but attaching them to the wrong game...
                                                            pvertime=1 and o:WP>60 and game number>40
                                                            hmm for me 133 is active right above flames game
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Emf66
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 01-05-15
                                                              • 600

                                                              #555
                                                              Originally posted by emceeaye
                                                              Hi Emf66,
                                                              Welcome. I would definitely consider a lot of what we do here research. Whether it's trying to arrive at as many queries as possible to express as many different variables as possible that influence the outcome of games, or summarizing the performance of those queries, or developing a formula to beat use the queries in a way that will produce the best ROI possible, we are all involved in some aspect of research. While I'm personally planning to analyze these variables using real stats when I have time, right now the available database will have to do...Feel free to look through the SDQL threads, as there is very useful information them. And, of course we would appreciate any ideas you can share--We all like to contribute and help one another here.
                                                              Hi EMC great I will be in touch
                                                              Comment
                                                              • emceeaye
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 08-20-13
                                                                • 704

                                                                #556
                                                                Originally posted by nash13
                                                                pvertime=1 and o:WP>60 and game number>40
                                                                hmm for me 133 is active right above flames game
                                                                OK I see it now... Weird, works now...

                                                                That query and another one of those that you listed support a good counter argument to why Blackhawks ml should be a pick tonight. However, when you tweak them to better match the situation (e.g., the Hawks are coming off two losses in a row in which they were favorites, and that Coyotes are playing away as dogs, the WP differential between the 2 teams) the picture looks a lot different.

                                                                AD and pvertime=1 and p:L and o:WP>55 and op:FL and opp:FL and WP<45
                                                                Comment
                                                                • nash13
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-21-14
                                                                  • 1122

                                                                  #557
                                                                  Originally posted by emceeaye
                                                                  OK I see it now... Weird, works now...

                                                                  That query and another one of those that you listed support a good counter argument to why Coyotes ml is a pick. However, when you tweak them to better match the situation (e.g., the Hawks are coming off two losses in a row in which they were favorites, and that Coyotes are playing away as dogs, the WP differential between the 2 teams) the picture looks a lot different.

                                                                  AD and pvertime=1 and p:L and o:WP>55 and op:FL and opp:FL and WP<45
                                                                  Reported the missing queries bug to the developer team. They fixed it in about an hour.
                                                                  Great support so far.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • nash13
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-21-14
                                                                    • 1122

                                                                    #558
                                                                    H and day = Monday and rest < 3 and o:rest < 3 and total > 5 and n:site = home
                                                                    H and (day = Sunday or day = Monday) and rest < 3 and o:rest < 3 and total > 5 and n:site = home and 15>n:rest>0
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • emceeaye
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 08-20-13
                                                                      • 704

                                                                      #559
                                                                      rest>=6 and o:rest>=6 and day=Tuesday and total=5.5

                                                                      rest>=6 and o:rest>=6 and day=Tuesday
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Cutler'sThumb
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 12-06-11
                                                                        • 287

                                                                        #560
                                                                        Originally posted by emceeaye
                                                                        rest>=6 and o:rest>=6 and day=Tuesday and total=5.5

                                                                        rest>=6 and o:rest>=6 and day=Tuesday
                                                                        Hmm, this gives a little pause to tonight's card. There are a bunch of non conflicted unders: 66,69,70,72,84,120,131.
                                                                        Two of them are on your trend (Rangers/Islanders and Lightning/Hurricanes).
                                                                        Comment
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