NHL Situational Plays

**JMon** · 12-17-14, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

That's one heck of a query JMon. Small sample, but when it's stretched over 9 seasons with that kind of win rate it's definitely a keeper! Unless you have an objection, I'll throw it on the spreadsheet.

I don't use the spreadsheet, but anyone is welcomed to any of the queries I post here.

**zxqwpdbg** · 12-17-14, 08:53 PM

i have been betting way to many games lately. i want to try picking my spots.

here is one of the few query's online that i find worthwhile to bet on.

p:HW and po:goals=0 and WP>50 and game number<42 and season>=2010

what does everyone think of this shark's play?
is it a good idea to play the juice?
maybe take the regulation or puck line?
what is the thought process?
how could i dissect this query down to figure out the best play?

**emceeaye** · 12-18-14, 12:53 PM

I hear you, zxqwpdbg. I have been getting worked lately with more than 5 bets a day.

I like your sharks query as well but I've learned the hard way that it's never safe to bet ML on a game that's as juiced as that.

Ross Benjamin gives the following rationale for picking Sharks puck line today:

NHL Betting System
Play against any money line road underdog (Oilers) of +200 or greater that’s lost 6 or 7 of their last 8-games, and they’re playing their 4th game in the last 7-days. By playing against that road team in that exact situation you would’ve gone 46-5 (90.2%) during the past 5-seasons. More importantly, the road team was at a -2.1 goal per game differential in those 51-contests. Taking this system one step further, it has gone 27-2 (93.1%) during the past 3-seasons.
NHL Pick: San Jose -1.5 (+115) over Edmonton

Is he accurate? Well, let's look at his, and then add a few variables to get a better look...

Avg goal differential =2.18:
AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010

Avg goal differential=2.19:
AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010 and day=Thursday

Avg goal differential=2.19:
AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2012

However, here avg goal differential=1.34:
AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and PP:season=season and PP:W

Avg goal differential=2.00:
AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and oS(W, N=8)=7

I think it may be worth a puck line play on Sharks... The one thing that worries me is the query reflecting that the oilers gave the Sharks their only loss in the past eight games. The goal differential in that situation is less than 2 goals..

**JMon** · 12-19-14, 02:46 PM

H and streak<=-5 and 60>=WP>=51 and o:WP<50

winning team on a bad losing streak get back on track at home against a losing team.

showcasing the situation in a group-by

H and streak<=-2,-3,-4,-5,-6,-7 and 60>=WP>=51 and o:WP<50

**JMon** · 12-19-14, 03:10 PM

Never a losing year total

A and p:W and p:margin=1 and p:division=po:division and op:HL and rest<3 and 4>o:rest>0 and total<6.5

**emceeaye** · 12-19-14, 03:30 PM

Islanders under

p:goals<=1 and pp:goals<=1 and F and conference=o:conference and season>=2012 and game number<=42 and total=5.5

since 2012, play under in a game when the favorite is playing a conference game in the first half of the season with a total of 5.5, and that team didn't score much in their previous 2 games, specifically 1 goal or less in each of its previous 2 games.

**JMon** · 12-19-14, 03:48 PM

p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and op:A and opp:A and oppp:A and opppp:A and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and month!=1

Never losing total.. two teams on long road streaks, not on heavy rest and not in Jan...play under

**emceeaye** · 12-20-14, 01:59 AM

Penguins/Panthers under 5.5

Here's one I just came up with on the Penguins/Panthers under for Saturday:

total=5.5 and tA(ou margin)<=A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=A(ou margin) and season>=2013 and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10

Here's another one I put together supporting it:

total=5.5 and tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and season>=2013 and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10

**JMon** · 12-20-14, 03:12 PM

H and po:goals <= 2 and ppo:goals <= 2 and op:W and op

vertime = 1 and total<6 and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and 2009<=season

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-20-14, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by JMon

H and po:goals <= 2 and ppo:goals <= 2 and op:W and op

vertime = 1 and total<6 and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and 2009<=season

You playing both of these JMon?

Blackhawks/Blue Jackets also a decent under play tonight (NHL 55):
total = 5.5 and 14 < p:shots on goal < 32 and playoffs = 0 and day != Thursday and day != Friday and day != Sunday and rest < 4 and o:rest < 4 and rest + o:rest > 0 and 7 > streak > -4 and (game number < 38 or game number > 51) and ou streak < 5 and p

u margin > -3 and 4.5 > op

u margin > -3 and 43 > op:shots on goal > 19

**zxqwpdbg** · 12-20-14, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by JMon

H and po:goals <= 2 and ppo:goals <= 2 and op:W and op

vertime = 1 and total<6 and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and 2009<=season

great query jmon. why the need for "total<6"? it takes out 1 under and 2 pushes. wouldn't it be better to remove "total<6"?

**JMon** · 12-20-14, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by zxqwpdbg

great query jmon. why the need for "total<6"? it takes out 1 uinder and 2 pushes. wouldn't it be better to remove "total<6"?

good catch! I think when I was making the query I had something else going on where I needed a total parameter, then I changed the query so that there would be no need for it. Well it worked, but I guess I forgot to actually remove it...lol

**JMon** · 12-20-14, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

You playing both of these JMon?

Blackhawks/Blue Jackets also a decent under play tonight (NHL 55):
total = 5.5 and 14 < p:shots on goal < 32 and playoffs = 0 and day != Thursday and day != Friday and day != Sunday and rest < 4 and o:rest < 4 and rest + o:rest > 0 and 7 > streak > -4 and (game number < 38 or game number > 51) and ou streak < 5 and p

u margin > -3 and 4.5 > op

u margin > -3 and 43 > op:shots on goal > 19

ya, I think so. Bol if you do

**nash13** · 12-20-14, 08:33 PM

I updated the NHL section. Would be nice if anyone could double check for missing queries. Please adapt to the format in the sheet if possible.
Great work here we cracked over 110 queries since start of the season. Awesome

**emceeaye** · 12-21-14, 01:10 AM

month!=10 and month!=1 and (day=Friday or day=Saturday) and tA(goals+short handed goals)<.94*A(goals+short handed goals) and oA(goals+short handed goals)<.94*A(goals+short handed goals) and tA(o:goals+o:short handed goals)<.94*A(o:goals+o:short handed goals) and oA(o:goals+short handed goals)<.94*A(o:goals+o:short handed goals)

season>=2010 and (day=Monday or day=Wednesday or day=Friday) and (month=3 or month=4 or month=5 or month=12) and tA(minutes short handed+goals+short handed goals)<.9*A(minutes short handed+goals+short handed goals) and oA(minutes short handed+goals+short handed goals)<.9*A(minutes short handed+goals+short handed goals) and tA(o:minutes short handed+o:goals+o:short handed goals)<.9*A(o:minutes short handed+o:goals+o:short handed goals) and oA(o:minutes short handed+o:goals+o:short handed goals)<.9*A(o:minutes short handed+o:goals+o:short handed goals)

**JMon** · 12-21-14, 12:04 PM

F and tA(o:goals)>=3 and po:goals<=2 and ppo:goals<=2 and 2009<=season and o:WP<50 and o:rest<3

**JMon** · 12-21-14, 12:11 PM

Play under a tired road team on a winning streak

14 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest + pppp:rest + ppppp:rest + pppppp:rest) >= 8 and A and total <= 5.5 and tS(W, N=8) >= 6

**emceeaye** · 12-21-14, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by JMon

F and tA(o:goals)>=3 and po:goals<=2 and ppo:goals<=2 and 2009<=season and o:WP<50 and o:rest<3

Here's a situation by Ross b today on oilers but not getting his numbers. Anyone else have better luck?

consistent for me when making my NHL picks.
Any money line underdog that’s playing just their 2nd game in the last 5-days, and they lost each of their previous two games, and those contests came against division opponents, has seen the underdog go 28-12 (70%) during the past three seasons.

D and t:date-p:date<5 and p:L and pp:L and p:division=po:division and pp:division=ppo:division and season>=2013

Update:

This may be at least close to the query:
line>0 and p:rest+rest=3 and p:L and pp:L and p:division=po:division and pp:division=ppo:division and season>=2012

May be worth reconsidering... No play for me.

**emceeaye** · 12-22-14, 03:40 PM

for today

HF and p:goals=2 and op:goals=3 and 4>pp:goals>1 and season>=2010

HF and p:goals=2 and op:goals=3 and 3>pp:goals>1 and season>=2010

**JMon** · 12-22-14, 03:56 PM

H and ou streak>=2 and 2.9>=tA(goals)>=2.5 and 2.9>=oA(goals)>=2.5 and 2010<=season

Wish I would have found this earler...9-0 on the under this season. Note..total of 5.5 is more appealing than 5

**emceeaye** · 12-23-14, 09:19 AM

for today:

A and p:AL and p:division=po:division and op:margin<=-4 and op:division=opo:division

lowish sample size but amazing ROI over 24 games mostly on dogs

consistent with other queries as well one of which is:

total=5 and -1>streak>-4 and -1>=o:streak>-3 and day!=Saturday and month!=4 and day=Tuesday

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-23-14, 12:51 PM

Long term 59" under trend (#55) for tonight:
total = 5.5 and 14 < p:shots on goal < 32 and playoffs = 0 and day != Thursday and day != Friday and day != Sunday and rest < 4 and o:rest < 4 and rest + o:rest > 0 and 7 > streak > -4 and (game number < 38 or game number > 51) and ou streak < 5 and p

u margin > -3 and 4.5 > op

u margin > -3 and 43 > op:shots on goal > 19

Wild
Lightning
Avalanche

Also some live dogs from #16:
rest = o:rest and AD and rest = 1 and (P:AD or P:HF) and WP <= 60 and (130 >= line > 115 or line > 150) and P:rest - oP:rest <= 1

Maple Leafs +122
Jets +214

**JMon** · 12-23-14, 05:33 PM

D and P:HL and p:AL and p:goals=0 and 2007<=season and line<190

**emceeaye** · 12-23-14, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by JMon

D and P:HL and p:AL and p:goals=0 and 2007<=season and line<190

Nice... Wish I would have seen this earlier...eff... Oh well, I may have to just ride the Hurricanes out.

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-23-14, 11:19 PM

Love the little gems you sprinkle in JMon. NBA has been like herding cats, but NHL has really been dialed in lately.

**JMon** · 12-24-14, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Nice... Wish I would have seen this earlier...eff... Oh well, I may have to just ride the Hurricanes out.

Worked out for you

**JMon** · 12-24-14, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

Love the little gems you sprinkle in JMon. NBA has been like herding cats, but NHL has really been dialed in lately.

Thanks...don't know much about hockey and it's taken me awhile to catch on, but trying to help the crew when I can..

**nash13** · 12-24-14, 09:28 AM

Awesome nevertheless Hockey is the Sport with the second most queries. NFL has been a red flag for me all year. Lost nearly entire qinnings from other sports. Got to reconsider there the changing rules etc.

**emceeaye** · 12-24-14, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by JMon

Worked out for you

Yes.. Could have gone either way. But, thanks for an awesome query...one thing I'm realizing is that when there are strong queries pointing in opposite directions in hockey (and baseball), and when two of us are on opposite sides, although I haven't been tracking this to know for sure, the game is often decided by a one-goal margin in favor of the team with more of the available strong queries supporting it...not sure, but if there is a more systematic way of identifying these situations correctly more often than not, then we would have something good (especially since so many of these games are decided by one goal regardless).

**JMon** · 12-24-14, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Yes.. Could have gone either way. But, thanks for an awesome query...one thing I'm realizing is that when there are strong queries pointing in opposite directions in hockey (and baseball), and when two of us are on opposite sides, although I haven't been tracking this to know for sure, the game is often decided by a one-goal margin in favor of the team with more of the available strong queries supporting it...not sure, but if there is a more systematic way of identifying these situations correctly more often than not, then we would have something good (especially since so many of these games are decided by one goal regardless).

HA... when you figure that out...let me know

**emceeaye** · 12-24-14, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by JMon

HA... when you figure that out...let me know

no problem, will do

**JMon** · 12-27-14, 03:31 PM

AD and p:AW and p:division = po:division and op:HW and rest not in [2] and o:rest > 0

Very solid, but tough taking a large fav today, but they are 10-1 SU - not so good 1.5

Anyway solid overall, so wanted to share...cheers.

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-27-14, 03:47 PM

#55 Under Trend is active today:
Lightning/Hurricanes
Penguins/Capitals
Predators/Flyers (x2)

Also a good under trend from JMon is active. Gives us Predators/Flyers under and Kings/Sharks under:
H and ou streak>=2 and 2.9>=tA(goals)>=2.5 and 2.9>=oA(goals)>=2.5 and 2010<=season

**JMon** · 12-27-14, 03:52 PM

H and 160>=line>105 and tS(points-po

oints)<=-.65 and po:goals<=1 and o:rest!=1

fade a bad team as a dog, being outscored by .65 or more goals after allowing 1 or less

**zxqwpdbg** · 12-27-14, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by JMon

AD and p:AW and p:division = po:division and op:HW and rest not in [2] and o:rest > 0

Very solid, but tough taking a large fav today, but they are 10-1 SU - not so good 1.5

Anyway solid overall, so wanted to share...cheers.

i don't understand what "and rest not in [2]" means or "not so good 1.5".