NHL Situational Plays

[JMon]

emc...culter...can one of you relay me the rangers query...? thanx in advance.

[DEUCED]

Adam ??

[Cutler'sThumb]

I like Rangers u5.5 as well, the most of all the nhl plays today in fact. Despite the Hurricanes/Devils over suggested by one of the queries, one of the Devils leading scorers, Adam Cammalerri, is not in lineup today, which is a variable that could make it go lower than usual...

Good call on the Devils game. Rangers game was 3-1 with 5:00 to go. Oh well, move on.

[Cutler'sThumb]

emc...culter...can one of you relay me the rangers query...? thanx in advance.

Sorry Jmon, this is obviously too late, but here you go:

HF and p:goals=2 and op:goals=3 and 4>pp:goals>1

season>2009 and 0>p: power play goals - op: power play goals>-3 and day!=Tuesday and -4-6 and month!=2 and month!=5 and month!=6 and (A or day!=Sunday) and (215>line>-212 or line>249) and p: penalties<10 and op: penalties>1 and p:shots on goal - op:shots on goal<18 and op:shots on goal<43 and p:assists!=5 and 14>op:assists>1 and p:shifts>326 and 83>op:shifts -p:shifts>-75 and po:goals>0 and rest + o:rest<7

*I posted on the spreadsheet earlier in the day, although I'm going into SDB and not seeing any of the games for 12/8. Maybe system is updating or something?

[emceeaye]

Good call on the Devils game. Rangers game was 3-1 with 5:00 to go. Oh well, move on.

literally, when I saw that there was five minutes left and the Rangers were up 3 to 1, I assumed that it was going to be a lock that it would go under 5.5. Unreal!

[emceeaye]

emc...culter...can one of you relay me the rangers query...? thanx in advance.

sorry about that JMon, I'm glad Cutler was able to give you the queries, even if too late... I'm only seeing your post now.

[emceeaye]

Nhl 96

Nash and Cutler, saw one of your additions to query NHL 96--nice...when you add day=Saturday or day=Tuesday on top of your changes, record improves substantially:

H and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and conference =Western and o:conference=Eastern and conference!=o:conference and total>5 and po:goals<3 and ppo:goals > 1 and p:goals > 0 and 0 < pp:goals<5 and ppp:goals > 0 and playoffs = 0

[zxqwpdbg]

trying to take a query and exclude AF's out of it. tried "!AF" but no luck. any ideas?

[b1slickguy]

trying to take a query and exclude AF's out of it. tried "!AF" but no luck. any ideas?

"(H or AD)" will include home teams and away dogs only, thus eliminating away favs.
Good luck.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Nash and Cutler, saw one of your additions to query NHL 96--nice...when you add day=Saturday or day=Tuesday on top of your changes, record improves substantially:

H and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and conference =Western and o:conference=Eastern and conference!=o:conference and total>5 and po:goals<3 and ppo:goals > 1 and p:goals > 0 and 0 < pp:goals<5 and ppp:goals > 0 and playoffs = 0

Yep, that one's a keeper for sure. Love the tweaks. 66% to 70% to 80%. Hard to argue with those results

[Cutler'sThumb]

Two plays tonight from this high volume trend (Red Wings and Oilers):

season>2009 and 0>p:Power play goals - op:Power play goals>-3 and day!=Tuesday and -4-6 and month!=2 and month!=5 and month!=6 and (A or day!=Sunday) and (215>line>-212 or line>249) and p:Penalties<10 and op:Penalties>1 and p:shots on goal - op:shots on goal<18 and op:shots on goal<43 and p:assists!=5 and 14>op:assists>1 and p:shifts>326 and 83>op:shifts -p:shifts>-75 and po:goals>0 and rest + o:rest<7

Don't see too many trends that pick completely opposite plays like this.

[emceeaye]

Two plays tonight from this high volume trend (Red Wings and Oilers):

season>2009 and 0>p:Power play goals - op:Power play goals>-3 and day!=Tuesday and -4-6 and month!=2 and month!=5 and month!=6 and (A or day!=Sunday) and (215>line>-212 or line>249) and p:Penalties<10 and op:Penalties>1 and p:shots on goal - op:shots on goal<18 and op:shots on goal<43 and p:assists!=5 and 14>op:assists>1 and p:shifts>326 and 83>op:shifts -p:shifts>-75 and po:goals>0 and rest + o:rest<7

Don't see too many trends that pick completely opposite plays like this.

Thanks for posting. Looks like its good in December and in particular on Wednesday in December... But Redwings so juiced

[Cutler'sThumb]

Thanks for posting. Looks like its good in December and in particular on Wednesday in December... But Redwings so juiced

That bombed last night, lol. Thankfully I also took both unders from #55.
No time to look at the trends today.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Trends that look good today:
#74,75: Flames
#74,34: Kings
#74,45: Panthers
#41,32: Oilers

All dogs, so hopefully some good value.

[escism]

Kind of small bill tonight, but it looks juicy! Laid a parlay on it so let's win it!

[emceeaye]

Oilers ml
Flames ml
Panthers/Redwings over
Kings/Canadiens under

Parlay as well on those.

Good Luck all

[JMon]

Small sample, but Perfect!

H and total=5.5 and tA(goals)<=2.4 and p:goals>=3 and pp:goals>=3 and ppp:goals>=3

[JMon]

H and p:W and 40 >= WP > 31 and o:WP < 50 and line > 100

Fade a home dog off a win btwn two losing teams.

[zxqwpdbg]

Small sample, but Perfect!

H and total=5.5 and tA(goals)<=2.4 and p:goals>=3 and pp:goals>=3 and ppp:goals>=3

H and p:W and 40 >= WP > 31 and o:WP < 50 and line > 100

Fade a home dog off a win btwn two losing teams.

great query's jmon. i will put bets on them as well as some other stuff.

my bets tonight.

panthers -140 1u
penguins -120 2u
penguins/blue jackets u5.5 -130 1u
jets -128 1u
jets/ducks u5.5 -135 1u
blues -155 1u

[emceeaye]

Penguins ML

Thanks J-mon. Very nice!

Here's one on Penguins ml:

Fade a dog on a winning streak greater than 2 on Wednesday, Friday or Saturday with a line pretty close to 0 since 2012.

D and streak > 2 and (day = Saturday or day = Wednesday or day = Friday) and season >= 2012 and -110 < line < 110

Especially good lately.

update:
Thomas Greiss, who isn't that great, may replace Fleury as goalie...worth a reconsideration

[zxqwpdbg]

great query's jmon. i will put bets on them as well as some other stuff.

my bets tonight.

panthers -140 1u
penguins -120 2u
penguins/blue jackets u5.5 -130 1u
jets -128 1u
jets/ducks u5.5 -135 1u
blues -155 1u

fuckk me, i haven't taken a beating like that all season. i should have got out with the penguins back up goalie.

[JMon]

H and p:goals <= 2 and pp:goals <= 2 and ppp:goals <= 2 and op:goals >= 4 and opp:goals >= 4 and 2010 <= season and rest<3

Check out how favs do or those on rest=1

[JMon]

H and p:HW and p:margin>=2 and total=5.5 and rest=0 and o:rest>0

[emceeaye]

Maple leafs/Kings under

D and streak>3 and (day=Sunday) and season>=2009

[emceeaye]

fuckk me, i haven't taken a beating like that all season. i should have got out with the penguins back up goalie.

I definitely got out as soon as I discovered Greiss was starting as goalie...and also got out of under.

[zxqwpdbg]

tweaked a play i found online by adding previous game was away and non conference.

tS(W,N=10) >= 8 and tS(rest,N=3) < 5 and p:A and p:conference!=po:conference

[zxqwpdbg]

D and streak>3 and (day=Sunday) and season>=2009 and month=12

im only seeing a sample size of two, is this correct?

[emceeaye]

im only seeing a sample size of two, is this correct?

sorry about that...
just eliminate month=12

D and streak>3 and (day=Sunday) and season>=2009

[Cutler'sThumb]

Just sticking to the large, long term trends gives me these tonight:
#55, Under 5.5 (this is a 58.5% trend with about 300 plays/season going back to 2006...proly worth just getting behind long term):
Flyers/Lightning, Maple Leafs/Ducks, Red Wings/Blue Jackets

#75, Dogs (this is one of the better dog trends with decent volume):
Hurricanes +184, Kings +131

Take em or leave em, but a simple strategy would be to just stay consistent on these larger trends. I checked every season for these two and there were a few flat seasons here and there, but someone who just closed their eyes and followed them would have done quite well overall.

[zxqwpdbg]

how do i query playing the same team twice in a row?

[JMon]

A and p:HW and pp:HW and 49>=WP>=40 and o:WP<50 and 105<=line<150

[zxqwpdbg]

how do i query playing the same team twice in a row?

just figured it out. "o:team=po:team"

[emceeaye]

Befuddled by stated record

Has anyone had any luck putting together a query that translates the following description by Ross Benjamin for a system for one of his picks today?

Any team (Vancouver) that’s playing with same season revenge stemming from a loss by 3-goals or more, and they have a winning percentage of .600 to .700, versus an opponent with a losing record, has seen 27 of those 33-games (81.8%) go over the total during the past 5-seasons.

I've had no luck. The following is what I've come up with and it doesn't produce even close to the record he's reporting.

P:margin<=-3 and 70>=WP>=60 and o:WP<50 and season>=2010 and P:season=season

[Cutler'sThumb]

A and p:HW and pp:HW and 49>=WP>=40 and o:WP<50 and 105<=line<150

That's one heck of a query JMon. Small sample, but when it's stretched over 9 seasons with that kind of win rate it's definitely a keeper! Unless you have an objection, I'll throw it on the spreadsheet.

[emceeaye]

tA(shifts) <= .95 * A(shifts) and oA(shifts) <= .95* A(shifts) and tA(assists) <= .975* A(assists) and oA(assists) <= .975* A(assists) and (month=10 or month=11 or month=12 or month=2 or month=3)