NHL Situational Plays

[nash13]

Wanted to start a new thread about Situational Plays in the NHL.
I addition to these:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/2798632-nba-stituational-bet-sdql.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2831496-mlb-situation-plays-sdql.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2935861-nfl-situational-plays-sdql.html

Here are two of my best NHL Situational Plays.

p:shots on goal >= 35 and op:goals = 3 and playoffs = 0 and (site = away or (site = home and p:site = away)) and 0 >= rest - o:rest >= -2 and F

133-56 (0.96, 70.4%)	avg line: -150.3 / 138.4	on / against: +$5,163 / -$5,811	ROI: +18.2% / -30.7%
89-87-13 (0.25, 50.6%)	avg total: 5.5

D and streak > 3

167-305 (-0.83, 35.4%)	avg line: 130.9 / -142.1	on / against: -$9,250 / +$7,414	ROI: -19.6% / +11.1%
192-243-37 (-0.00, 44.1%)	avg total: 5.4

[JMon]

NHL SDQL side and total

AF and tS(L, N=7)>=5 and 49>=WP>=40 and o:WP<50 and rest>0

[neilb1973]

Here is one I saw at the google groups and tweaked it for the Leafs. Over play or SU.

season >= 2012 and A(penalty minutes@team and season)[o:team and season -1] >= 13 and month >= 10 and team = Maple Leafs

[chopperocker]

where do I find an NHL database?

[JMon]

where do I find an NHL database?

sportsdatabase ,which is the main server

[chopperocker]

sportsdatabase ,which is the main server

thanx, JMon

[tavo88]

Wanted to start a new thread about Situational Plays in the NHL.
I addition to these:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/2798632-nba-stituational-bet-sdql.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2831496-mlb-situation-plays-sdql.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2935861-nfl-situational-plays-sdql.html

Here are two of my best NHL Situational Plays.

p:shots on goal >= 35 and op:goals = 3 and playoffs = 0 and (site = away or (site = home and p:site = away)) and 0 >= rest - o:rest >= -2 and F

133-56 (0.96, 70.4%)	avg line: -150.3 / 138.4	on / against: +$5,163 / -$5,811	ROI: +18.2% / -30.7%
89-87-13 (0.25, 50.6%)	avg total: 5.5

D and streak > 3

167-305 (-0.83, 35.4%)	avg line: 130.9 / -142.1	on / against: -$9,250 / +$7,414	ROI: -19.6% / +11.1%
192-243-37 (-0.00, 44.1%)	avg total: 5.4

sorry this is probably a noob question but what does the "D" in "D and streak > 3" and is there anywhere i can look up what diffrent shortcuts mean?

thank you

[otunj]

sorry this is probably a noob question but what does the "D" in "D and streak > 3" and is there anywhere i can look up what diffrent shortcuts mean?

thank you

an underdog that is on a win streak of 4 or more. Per the results, bet on their opponent ( the favorite) as the dog had lost 35% of the time since 2006

also, check out the manuals on sportsdatabase.com. There's no manual for nhl, but other sports shortcuts are the same for basic abbreviations.

[nash13]

I tried to look for logic behind the D and streak > 4 play.
If the team is hot and still considered as a Dog there must be a resin for that.

[otunj]

I tried to look for logic behind the D and streak > 4 play.
If the team is hot and still considered as a Dog there must be a resin for that.

Curious to see who their current opponent would be and previous 4. If they beat Sabres, Oilers, Panthers, etc... and their current next opponent is much better, that's one reason. Using the original query ... D and streak > 3.... the average line for their opponent is -142.1. Also, 86% of the D's games are away so I'm sure that plays a part too.

[nash13]

i meant D and streak > 3

[chopperocker]

n:A and nn:A and nnn:A and HD and on:H

on / against: +$1,631 / -$2,458

im not sharp on hockey but quick scheduling situation. home dog with upcoming road trip vs opponent heading back home seems to make some sense?


small sample, I know.

[nash13]

n:A and nn:A and nnn:A and HD and on:H

on / against: +$1,631 / -$2,458

im not sharp on hockey but quick scheduling situation. home dog with upcoming road trip vs opponent heading back home seems to make some sense?


small sample, I know.

you can add rest > 0, this improves the profit and ROI a bit.

[chopperocker]

op:margin>=2 and opp:margin>=2 and oppp:margin>=2 and D and playoffs=0

avg line: 149.5 / -162.5

on / against: +$3,327 / -$4,847

op:margin>=2 and opp:margin>=2 and oppp:margin>=2 and D and p: DL and playoffs=0

avg line: 159.8 / -173.6

on / against: +$3,758 / -$4,447

[emceeaye]

unders query in NHL

Here's one that was verbalized by Ross Benjamin, and I reproduced the query for it:

A and total=5.5 and po:goals>=3 and ppo:goals>=3 and pppo:goals>=3 and opo:goals>=5 and oppo:goals>=5 and season>=1996

Any tweaks to make it better or build on it?

[chopperocker]

op:HFL and opp:HFL and o:WP>66 and playoffs=0

15-4 (1.11, 78.9%)

avg line: 126.2 / -138.7

on / against: +$1,497 / -$1,635

ROI: +74.0% / -60.2%

[emceeaye]

Blackhawks ml today and Kings ml tomorrow

Here are 2 intuitive ones I came up with supporting Blackhawks today and Kings tomorrow:

HF and tA(margin, N=1)>=4 and WP>=48 and season>=2012 and op:margin<=1 and opp:margin<=1

HF and tA(margin, N=2)>=3 and month>=10 and WP>=48 and season>=2012

[emceeaye]

Montreal ML

HF and site streak<=-4 and tS(W, N=4)>=2 and p:margin<=-1 and season>=1996 and WP>=48

[nash13]

great ones. i will share two later. have some of my own.

[nash13]

4 < po:goals < 7 and p:FL

413-467 (-0.00, 46.9%)

avg line: -116.2 / 104.2

on / against: -$12,152 / +$7,743

ROI: -10.5% / +7.3%

po:goals=0 and p:HF and F

250-141 (0.63, 63.9%)

avg line: -160.4 / 147.5

on / against: +$3,351 / -$5,053

ROI: +5.3% / -12.9%

[emceeaye]

query development difficulties

Does anyone know how to express the following? After looking at the summative page, I'm still having trouble. Here is what I would like to express in a query:

Any NHL team coming off a shutout loss, that's played 5-games or less in the last 14-days.

This is what I've come up with so far:
p:goals=0 and Count(team@team and season)[(week=1,2]<=5

Any help with this would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

[emceeaye]

Washington ML

Here's an intuitive one I came up with pointing to Capitals today:

HF and p:HFW and p:margin>=4 and WP>42 and o:WP<46

[emceeaye]

Montreal ML

Another intuitive one on Montreal tonight:

HF and p:HFW and p:goals>=6 and WP>45 and o:WP<44

[JMon]

Does anyone know how to express the following? After looking at the summative page, I'm still having trouble. Here is what I would like to express in a query:

Any NHL team coming off a shutout loss, that's played 5-games or less in the last 14-days.

This is what I've come up with so far:
p:goals=0 and Count(team@team and season)[(week=1,2]<=5

Any help with this would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

you may try this emc

14-(rest+p:rest+pp:rest+ppp:rest)<=5

[emceeaye]

you may try this emc

14-(rest+p:rest+pp:rest+ppp:rest)<=5

Jmon,
Thanks. Nice, looks pretty good to me, except for the part about "has played 5 games or LESS"...

This is the system I'm trying to express in SDQL:

May 9, 2014 system posted by Ross Benjamin:

NHL Betting System
Let's review the betting trends before making our hockey pick: any team (Chicago) coming off a shutout loss, that's played 5-games or less in the last 14-days has gone 'under' the total in 34 of 45-games (75.6%) during the last 5 seasons.

[emceeaye]

(14 - (rest) <= 5 or 14 - (rest + p:rest) <= 5 or 14 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest) <= 5 or 14 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest) <= 5 or 14 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest + pppp:rest) <= 5) and p:goals = 0 and season >= 2010

Perhaps that is it.

[GunnShow]

p:shots on goal >= 35 and op:goals = 3 and playoffs = 0 and (site = away or (site = home and p:site = away)) and 0 >= rest - o:rest >= -2 and F

133-56 (0.96, 70.4%)	avg line: -150.3 / 138.4	on / against: +$5,163 / -$5,811	ROI: +18.2% / -30.7%
89-87-13 (0.25, 50.6%)	avg total: 5.5

I'm brand new to SDQL so I just want to make sure I understand: This query searched the results of money line bets on teams that had 35+ shots during their previous game and gave up exactly 3 goals their previous game (or is it that their current opponent scored 3 goals in their last game?). The team's current game will be on the road or at home after a road game. The "rest" part is where I get confused, I'm hoping someone can explain that part to me, and what does the "and F" mean?

Is there a website that gives some sort of tutorial on how to use SDQL for hockey betting? Is there a way to automatically track plays that would meet this criteria? or other SDQL criteria? or do you have to manually track it?

[chopperocker]

I'm brand new to SDQL so I just want to make sure I understand: This query searched the results of money line bets on teams that had 35+ shots during their previous game and gave up exactly 3 goals their previous game (or is it that their current opponent scored 3 goals in their last game?). The team's current game will be on the road or at home after a road game. The "rest" part is where I get confused, I'm hoping someone can explain that part to me, and what does the "and F" mean?

Is there a website that gives some sort of tutorial on how to use SDQL for hockey betting? Is there a way to automatically track plays that would meet this criteria? or other SDQL criteria? or do you have to manually track it?

op: "meaning=current opponents previous"
po: "meaning=previous opponent"

the way the "rest" terms are transcribed is confusing to me also, im guessing rest greater than zero vs opponent with 2 or greater less days of rest?

F is a shortcut for favorite, D dog, H home, A away

google=sportsdatabase killersports

[otunj]

Here's one I came up with last season. October based, Pretty decent sample size, and pretty simple with only 4 parameters

WP < 45 and o:WP > 45 and op:L and month = 10


SU: 96-69 (0.36, 58.2%) avg line: 111.6 / -123.1 on / against: +$4,143 / -$4,997 ROI: +21.9% / -22.6%

[emceeaye]

Does anyone know the terms for expressing number of goals per period in hockey as in the following?

to express Any home favorite in the 2nd half of the season, versus an opponent with a 0.2 or better goal per game differential during the 1st period of contests on the season, and they allowed 1-goal or less in each of their previous 2-games, has gone 45-11 (80.4%) during the last 18 seasons.

Its a situation posted by Ross Benjamin.

[GunnShow]

Thanks chopperocker

[otunj]

Does anyone know the terms for expressing number of goals per period in hockey as in the following?

to express Any home favorite in the 2nd half of the season, versus an opponent with a 0.2 or better goal per game differential during the 1st period of contests on the season, and they allowed 1-goal or less in each of their previous 2-games, has gone 45-11 (80.4%) during the last 18 seasons.

Its a situation posted by Ross Benjamin.

This may be it, but I'd get a 2nd opinion. Take out the space after "oA(o:" as it gives a smiley face if it's not there

HF and game number > 41 and oA(period scores[0]) - oA(o: period scores[0]) >= .2 and po:goals <= 1 and ppo:goals <= 1

SU: 21-9 (1.03, 70.0%) avg line: -145.7 / 134.3 on / against: +$847 / -$941 ROI: +19.4% / -31.4%
OU: 15-14-1 (0.27, 51.7%) avg total: 5.3

[emceeaye]

This may be it, but I'd get a 2nd opinion. Take out the space after "oA(o:" as it gives a smiley face if it's not there

HF and game number > 41 and oA(period scores[0]) - oA(o: period scores[0]) >= .2 and po:goals <= 1 and ppo:goals <= 1

SU: 21-9 (1.03, 70.0%) avg line: -145.7 / 134.3 on / against: +$847 / -$941 ROI: +19.4% / -31.4%
OU: 15-14-1 (0.27, 51.7%) avg total: 5.3

Nice job, Otunj. Nice WP on this but I wonder why we aren't getting the sample size that Ross gets.

Minor adjustments:
HF and game number>=38 and oA(period scores[0]) - tA(period scores[0]) >= .2 and po:goals <= 1 and ppo:goals <= 1

[otunj]

Nice job, Otunj. Nice WP on this but I wonder why we aren't getting the sample size that Ross gets.

You said, "has gone 45-11 (80.4%) during the last 18 seasons." Sportsdatabase only goes back to the 06-07 season (9 seasons).

Also, did I misunderstand the situation. Is the opponent's average 1st period goals .2 more than the team in the query? Or is the opponent's average 1st period goals .2 more than the average of the their (opponent) opponents?

[emceeaye]

You said, "has gone 45-11 (80.4%) during the last 18 seasons." Sportsdatabase only goes back to the 06-07 season (9 seasons).

Also, did I misunderstand the situation. Is the opponent's average 1st period goals .2 more than the team in the query? Or is the opponent's average 1st period goals .2 more than the average of the their (opponent) opponents?

Yeah, looks like he is using a different database than the one we are that goes back further...

I'm assuming any team's average is what he is referring to especially since it says "an opponent" rather than the particular opponent team that his query applied to when he wrote it. But we can never be sure. So I think running it both ways to see which one gives better results makes sense not only because we can't be sure which one he meant, but also because either way, we need every opportunity to make the most of a much smaller sample size than what he is using.

I think he is referencing any opponent's average first period goals that are at least .2 more than any team's average 1st period goals...hope that made sense.