NHL Situational Plays

[nash13]

Too many games for only a ROI if 2.2% and only 5 unit profit. If your unit was $5, you would have to wager, well over $1500 just to win $25. For me, I try to use queries that account for 5% of the games per season (around 61 per season) and an ROI of over 10%

matching your criteria there are a few
D and streak > 3 and season

rest = o:rest and AD and rest = 1 and (P:AD or P:HF) and WP <= 60 and (130 >= line > 115 or line > 150) and P:rest - oP:rest <= 1 and season

[nash13]

and this
p:shots on goal > po:shots on goal and p:AL and A and 0 <rest < 3 and season

do you have some others?

PS:formating problems, to see the query hit on reply with quote.

[JMon]

Here's today's situation by Ross Benjamin on the under for Canucks/Blues game tonight:

Any road team with a total of 5.0 or less, coming off 1 or more losses in a row, and has a winning percentage of .510 to .600 on the season, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .250 to .400, has seen 32 of those 41-games (78%) go under the total since 1996.

This is the query that expresses it, but the results of the limited years database we use points to the over. Am I missing something here with this query?

A and total<=5 and streak<=-1 and 60>WP>51 and 25 < o:WP <40

Looks right to me. You didn't cover the win %, it needs to be 60>=WP>=51 and 25<= o:WP <=40 (that's how I read it anyway). Didn't change anything anyway. I also check the streak parameter by subbing p:L to see if it was working and it is. Perhaps a bad last 8 years....lol.---can't see that happening though and maintaining a 78% clip.

[chopperocker]

Nice! This thread got busy, time to catch up.

[emceeaye]

Oilers ML

Not sure who posted this but it points to Oilers ML tonight.

pt:shots on goal / pt:goals <= 7.1 and Sum(W@team,N=3) = 2 and op:date = date -1 and HWP > o:HWP and season >= 2011

Nice record, 42-14 and ROI, 24%

Add month=10, and team is 7-1 in this situation. Also a possible play on the under, ou record 1-7.

[emceeaye]

Ross Benjamin situation, 3/28/14

Any home team in the 2nd half of the season that's facing an opponent that averages 2.85 or more goals per game, and that opponent has allowed 3-goals or more in each of their last 5-games, has gone 33-13 (71.7%) versus the money line in the last 5 seasons.

H and oA(goals)>=2.85 and game number>=42 and opo:goals>=3 and oppo:goals>=3 and opppo:goals>=3 and oppppo:goals>=3 and opppppo:goals>=3 and season>=2010

WP and ROI good.

[escism]

Not sure who posted this but it points to Oilers ML tonight.

pt:shots on goal / pt:goals <= 7.1 and Sum(W@team,N=3) = 2 and op:date = date -1 and HWP > o:HWP and season >= 2011

I'm trying to understand this entire string. Previous Team SOG / Previous Team goals. Then I'm confused about Sum(W@team,N=3) = 2... Can someone explain that to me?

[emceeaye]

I'm trying to understand this entire string. Previous Team SOG / Previous Team goals. Then I'm confused about Sum(W@team,N=3) = 2... Can someone explain that to me?

In previous game, the team scored 1 goal for every 7 attempts or better. They have won 2 of their past 3 games. Their current opponent's last game was yesterday, so no rest for them. This team, which is the Oilers, has a better home win % than that of their opponent. We are looking at results since and including 2011.

[escism]

Gotcha thanks. Interesting play. We'll see if it pays off tonight.

[otunj]

Not sure who posted this but it points to Oilers ML tonight.

pt:shots on goal / pt:goals <= 7.1 and Sum(W@team,N=3) = 2 and op:date = date -1 and HWP > o:HWP and season >= 2011

Nice record, 42-14 and ROI, 24%

Add month=10, and team is 7-1 in this situation. Also a possible play on the under, ou record 1-7.

To make things shorter:
p:shots on goal / p:goals <= 7.1 and Sum(W@team,N=3) = 2 and o:rest = 0 and HWP > o:HWP and season >= 2011

1) don't need "pt:"..."p:" suffices
2) o:rest=0 ----- opponent had zero rest

itll save you time doing queries in long run.

Also, I'll freakin bet against hurricanes every day the way they are playing now

[escism]

I was pretty sure o:rest=0 would suffice too, but just wanted to double check... That's interesting. I ran a situation earlier that makes me want to pick the Canes. Not a ton of data, but it's interesting. I figured the Canes have to win eventually right and the Oilers aren't that great, so I wanted to see how the Oilers play against a team that has a streak of -5 or more. t:team=Oilers and HF and o:streak<-5. They're 0-4 in that situation which was interesting me to. So I put 1U on the Canes just incase...

[emceeaye]

To make things shorter:
p:shots on goal / p:goals <= 7.1 and Sum(W@team,N=3) = 2 and o:rest = 0 and HWP > o:HWP and season >= 2011

1) don't need "pt:"..."p:" suffices
2) o:rest=0 ----- opponent had zero rest

itll save you time doing queries in long run.

Also, I'll freakin bet against hurricanes every day the way they are playing now

Right, I use "p:" instead of "pt", and "rest=0" instead of "date-p:date..." when I make my own queries, but since it was already saved in my query list that way, it was actually faster to just copy and paste it.

Great, so circumstantial support and your gut instinct support the play.

[emceeaye]

I was pretty sure o:rest=0 would suffice too, but just wanted to double check... That's interesting. I ran a situation earlier that makes me want to pick the Canes. Not a ton of data, but it's interesting. I figured the Canes have to win eventually right and the Oilers aren't that great, so I wanted to see how the Oilers play against a team that has a streak of -5 or more. t:team=Oilers and HF and o:streak<-5. They're 0-4 in that situation which was interesting me to. So I put 1U on the Canes just incase...

Interesting and I like your thought process. What is concerning though is that all of those games occurred last year or earlier, so oilers were to some extent a different team back then. Also, since there is no effect when you eliminate the team specificity from the query, now relying more on the premise that the effect in your query is related to something exclusive to the Oilers in particular and not characteristic of teams in general, the prediction is even less reliable given what was stated above. Also, and maybe even more importantly, the extremely small sample size is a liability here.

Not saying it won't win for you though.

Good luck!

[emceeaye]

canadiens ML

Ross Benjamin's pick today...tweaked a bit to more closely match his stated win % for it:

p:margin=1 and pp:margin=1 and po:goals<=2 and ppo:goals<=2 and oA(o:goals)>=3.1

[zxqwpdbg]

hello everyone. i am zxqwpdbg, but you can call me zxq.

i am new to this forum and have been waiting patiently for someone to make a nhl situational plays thread.

i started sports betting two weeks ago and only have intentions of betting hockey. prior to this i have been trying to teach myself sdql for the last few months getting ideas from other situational plays threads.

although i wasn't going to sign up and was just going to be silently reading the posts. i have decided that i would like to be a member of this forum and help contribute where i can.

i would like to start tonight.

i am going to email sportsdatabase tonight and see if they will add the conference parameter for the nhl if i donate $100.

also here is a query i wrote last week that has multiple plays for tonight.

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010

[emceeaye]

hello everyone. i am zxqwpdbg, but you can call me zxq.

i am new to this forum and have been waiting patiently for someone to make a nhl situational plays thread.

i started sports betting two weeks ago and only have intentions of betting hockey. prior to this i have been trying to teach myself sdql for the last few months getting ideas from other situational plays threads.

although i wasn't going to sign up and was just going to be silently reading the posts. i have decided that i would like to be a member of this forum and help contribute where i can.

i would like to start tonight.

i am going to email sportsdatabase tonight and see if they will add the conference parameter for the nhl if i donate $100.

also here is a query i wrote last week that has multiple plays for tonight.

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010

Welcome.

Nice job.

I hope you dont' mind, but I tweaked your query a bit to get a better WP.

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010 and HF and WP>50 and o:WP<50

Add season>=2013, and watch the WP increase to 15-0.

Thanks zxq, I'm going to play the senators ML tonight, which is suggested by the queries.

[emceeaye]

Ross Benjamin post 3/17/2014:

Any road team with a total of 5.0 or less that scored 1-goal or less in their previous game, versus an opponent that scored 5 or more goals in their previous game, has seen 27 of those 36-games (75%) go under the total in the last 5 seasons.

Not active today though.

A and p:goals<=1 and op:goals>=5 and total<=5 and season>=2009

[nash13]

hello everyone. i am zxqwpdbg, but you can call me zxq.

i am new to this forum and have been waiting patiently for someone to make a nhl situational plays thread.

i started sports betting two weeks ago and only have intentions of betting hockey. prior to this i have been trying to teach myself sdql for the last few months getting ideas from other situational plays threads.

although i wasn't going to sign up and was just going to be silently reading the posts. i have decided that i would like to be a member of this forum and help contribute where i can.

i would like to start tonight.

i am going to email sportsdatabase tonight and see if they will add the conference parameter for the nhl if i donate $100.

also here is a query i wrote last week that has multiple plays for tonight.

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010

Welcome, the more we are, the better we get.
Like your approach.

[emceeaye]

Welcome, the more we are, the better we get.
Like your approach.

I agree. I just wish they had conference and division parameters

[nash13]

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010
on this play.
i have a strong trend which intend to take new jersey. so in these cases it is kind of a point of trust in each query.

this is it
A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5

[emceeaye]

Ross post on 3/13/2014:

Any road team that’s playing with same season double revenge stemming from a pair of losses by 2-goals or more, and they’re coming off a road 1-goal win, has gone under the total in 65 of those 97-games (67%) in the last 18 seasons

Although Ross suggests the under with this situation, the WP in favor of the home team shows an even better WP and a very good ROI.

However, I don't think the 2 losses that brought on this double revenge game happened this season as he stated for his situation if I'm understanding it correctly:

PP:margin<=-2 and P:margin<=-2 and p:margin=1 and A and p:AW

SU: 19-50 (-1.17, 27.5%) avg line: 144.8 / -158.3 on / against: -$2,399 / +$2,129 ROI: -33.6% / +19.2%
OU: 28-40-1 (-0.04, 41.2%) avg total: 5.4

[zxqwpdbg]

Welcome.

Nice job.

I hope you dont' mind, but I tweaked your query a bit to get a better WP.

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010 and HF and WP>50 and o:WP<50

Add season>=2013, and watch the WP increase to 15-0.

Thanks zxq, I'm going to play the senators ML tonight, which is suggested by the queries.

Welcome, the more we are, the better we get.
Like your approach.

thank you for the warm welcome, you two. i also don't mind you tweaking my query at all. i actually encourage it.

I agree. I just wish they had conference and division parameters

i emailed sportsdatabase like i said and for $100 they said they would add in the conference parameter. after i give him the money and a little bit of time to add it in, i expect the parameter should be in by the end of next week.

[nash13]

hmm what about the divisions? the problem here is that the division structure changed last year. this may make things harder to analyze.

[zxqwpdbg]

hmm what about the divisions? the problem here is that the division structure changed last year. this may make things harder to analyze.

i would like to have those to. but they wanted an extra $300 for them. i can't afford that right now. however if i make some overtime this winter i will definitely kick in some more support because i am hoping for that parameter as well.

about the division changes. i am sure sportsdatabase is aware of them and they might be able to work around it. maybe we can filter between new alignment and old alignment as an extra feature. we will have to see.

[zxqwpdbg]

was just thinking i should explain my query for anyone who is wondering.

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010
in a season game, off a shutout win at home since 2010

here is the tweaked version from emc.

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and HF and WP>50 and o:WP<50 and season>=2013
in a season game, off a shutout win at home. the current game is a home favourite with winning percentage greater than 50 and opponent's winning percentage less than 50 since 2013.

nash's query.

A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5
an away game, with team's average season to date penalty minutes per game between 11 and 12. excluding the months november, december and excluding team's first 4 games of every season.

i like this query nash, i am gonna play around with later and see if i can tweak it myself.

let me know if i got those query's nailed down.

[moshi]

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010
on this play.
i have a strong trend which intend to take new jersey. so in these cases it is kind of a point of trust in each query.

this is it
A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5

hi nash. Curious when you say "strong trend" were you referring to the sample size? I mean yes, its much larger, but of these two queries what would make you choose one that hits ~51% over one that hits much higher?

[JMon]

Ross post on 3/13/2014:

Any road team that’s playing with same season double revenge stemming from a pair of losses by 2-goals or more, and they’re coming off a road 1-goal win, has gone under the total in 65 of those 97-games (67%) in the last 18 seasons

Although Ross suggests the under with this situation, the WP in favor of the home team shows an even better WP and a very good ROI.

However, I don't think the 2 losses that brought on this double revenge game happened this season as he stated for his situation if I'm understanding it correctly:

PP:margin<=-2 and P:margin<=-2 and p:margin=1 and A and p:AW

SU: 19-50 (-1.17, 27.5%) avg line: 144.8 / -158.3 on / against: -$2,399 / +$2,129 ROI: -33.6% / +19.2%
OU: 28-40-1 (-0.04, 41.2%) avg total: 5.4

I believe same season revenge would be

P:season=season

also it apears one day's rest is bringing it down...rest!=1

[nash13]

hi nash. Curious when you say "strong trend" were you referring to the sample size? I mean yes, its much larger, but of these two queries what would make you choose one that hits ~51% over one that hits much higher?

12.2% Yield on over 1000 picks vs 14.5% Yield on 340 picks

look at is this way

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010 and A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5
if both queries are true, we are fine, but that's like 1 in a million

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010 and (A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5)=False
1 st query true and 2nd query false excludes the new jersey game from yesterday, but yield and profit stay nearly the same

seems like you don't miss much of the profit if you cross-query the two.

A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5 and (playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010)=False
there you get the jersey game back

[emceeaye]

jets ML?

This one active on Jets today:

A and tA(o:goals)>=3.2 and po:goals>=3 and ppo:goals>=3 and pppo:goals>=3 and ppppo:goals>=3 and season>=2009

Thoughts?

[nash13]

This one active on Jets today:

A and tA(o:goals)>=3.2 and po:goals>=3 and ppo:goals>=3 and pppo:goals>=3 and ppppo:goals>=3 and season>=2009

Thoughts?

H and D and p:H and date>=20120214 --> Avalanche
A and F and p:F and p:W and date>=20111215 --> Jets

I would stay away from it or take a little and very small amount on the trend you prefer.

[emceeaye]

H and D and p:H and date>=20120214 --> Avalanche
A and F and p:F and p:W and date>=20111215 --> Jets

I would stay away from it or take a little and very small amount on the trend you prefer.

Yeah, it doesn't look like that trend has been winning lately that much. Plus ROI sucks...

[zxqwpdbg]

12.2% Yield on over 1000 picks vs 14.5% Yield on 340 picks

look at is this way

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010 and A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5
if both queries are true, we are fine, but that's like 1 in a million

playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010 and (A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5)=False
1 st query true and 2nd query false excludes the new jersey game from yesterday, but yield and profit stay nearly the same

seems like you don't miss much of the profit if you cross-query the two.

A and 12 > tA(penalty minutes) > 11 and month != 11 and month != 12 and game number >= 5 and (playoffs=0 and po:goals=0 and p:site=home and season>=2010)=False
there you get the jersey game back

so the true/false query parameter is used to find out what game to bet on if two queries are suggesting different plays? what other uses does the true/false query parameter have?

i played around with the "12>tA(penalty minutes)>11" a little while ago, let me know what you think.

A and 12>tA(penalty minutes)>11 and penalty minutes>12 and o:rest<7 and (p:A and op:A or p:A and op:H) and playoffs=0
an away game with a teams season to date average of 11-12 penalty minutes per game. off a game where they had more penalty minutes then there season to date average. opponent is playing on no more than a week of rest. teams previous game was away and opponent's previous game was away or teams previous game was away and opponent's previous game was home.

[nash13]

so the true/false query parameter is used to find out what game to bet on if two queries are suggesting different plays? what other uses does the true/false query parameter have?

i played around with the "12>tA(penalty minutes)>11" a little while ago, let me know what you think.

A and 12>tA(penalty minutes)>11 and penalty minutes>12 and o:rest<7 and (p:A and op:A or p:A and op:H) and playoffs=0
an away game with a teams season to date average of 11-12 penalty minutes per game. off a game where they had more penalty minutes then there season to date average. opponent is playing on no more than a week of rest. teams previous game was away and opponent's previous game was away or teams previous game was away and opponent's previous game was home.

the question is: what is more important to you?
do you want to have fewer picks and a high yield?
or is it all about having the most profit no matter how?
i prefer a mixture of both.

your tweak is good, every past season ended in profit. but the first one did that too. so i would use what you more like.

as for true and false queries. this is a good tool to determine if cross queries are contradicting each other.

[emceeaye]

&quot;losing record against the money line&quot; terms

Is there a difference between a team having a "losing record" and a team having a "losing record against the money line"? If so, can someone please tell me the SDQL to express the latter as I'm trying to translate a bunch of Ross Benjamin situations into SDQL?

Thank you in advance.

[emceeaye]

the question is: what is more important to you?
do you want to have fewer picks and a high yield?
or is it all about having the most profit no matter how?
i prefer a mixture of both.

your tweak is good, every past season ended in profit. but the first one did that too. so i would use what you more like.

as for true and false queries. this is a good tool to determine if cross queries are contradicting each other.

Why not just combine 2 active contradictory queries on the same game into one query to see which one trumps the other in terms of WP and/or ROI?