NHL Situational Plays

[escism]

Interesting and I like your thought process. What is concerning though is that all of those games occurred last year or earlier, so oilers were to some extent a different team back then. Also, since there is no effect when you eliminate the team specificity from the query, now relying more on the premise that the effect in your query is related to something exclusive to the Oilers in particular and not characteristic of teams in general, the prediction is even less reliable given what was stated above. Also, and maybe even more importantly, the extremely small sample size is a liability here.

Not saying it won't win for you though.

Good luck!

Man, thats seriously a lot of great feedback. This is my first season at this so I'm trying to pick up on a lot in a hurry. Obv, the Canes came up short in this one.

I love what you said about it only applying to these teams. Do you typically try and find situations that apply throughout the league as a whole instead of just applying to the current games? I'm trying to understand a lot of systems right now and find one that works consistently for me. All I've found is that people constantly say "bet against the public" and "bet the away dogs"... To me it seems like with all this data there have to be better systems out there. I've just gotta keep digging into them I guess.

[escism]

Wow.

Maybe a stupid question, but is there a way to store these on Sportsdatabase.com? or do you all just keep a running list on TXT document somewhere.

[emceeaye]

Bases!

Welcome back buddy!...hell yeah.

Where you been?

[zxqwpdbg]

amazing bases. a lot of really great ideas. i was just looking through some of the query's and notice that a few of them looked like they had been cut off. they have like random numbers in the middle or at the end. just a couple though.

[mdunlap3]

OMG bases i love you.

[zxqwpdbg]

bases got my mind working a little bit. here's one i just made now.

p:L and P:L and op:L and day != Saturday and day != Sunday and (month = 10 or month = 11 or month = 12 or month = 1) and P:margin = -1 and op:margin != -3 and total <= 6

[escism]

bases got my mind working a little bit. here's one i just made now.

p:L and P:L and op:L and day != Saturday and day != Sunday and (month = 10 or month = 11 or month = 12 or month = 1) and P:margin = -1 and op:margin != -3 and total <= 6

So when you run this, it shows the Jackets/Sens game tomorrow are you looking at taking the Jackets SU or the Under 5.5? I'm just trying to figure out what info is most important from running this query.

[nash13]

Holy cow. I will look later on it. This is master Material.

[zxqwpdbg]

So when you run this, it shows the Jackets/Sens game tomorrow are you looking at taking the Jackets SU or the Under 5.5? I'm just trying to figure out what info is most important from running this query.

i would take the blue jackets. just keep in mind i don't know how much logic this query actually has. it has been winning every year though.

[nash13]

Wow.

Maybe a stupid question, but is there a way to store these on Sportsdatabase.com? or do you all just keep a running list on TXT document somewhere.

i make bookmarks and use xmarks in my browser. so every computer i use can sync immediately.

[nash13]

good to see some familiar faces from the mlb thread, as always tweaks and modifications are always welcomed:
...

i guess after your post, we can close this case. there are some queries that are beyond awesome. some are a bit over tweaked, but who cares.
if you have anything like this for nba you should be a very rich man by now.

[nash13]

hmm why is bases post deleted?

[JMon]

hmm why is bases post deleted?

probably using multiple accounts/handles that SBR does not allow.
Why was he posting from a different account?

[nash13]

yes seems like it, his original account was different. could not save all of his queries. just a few

[escism]

So I ran this one today:

A and streak=1 and o:streak=-1 and p:margin<5 and 3>P:margin>-5 and day!=Sunday and day!=Wednesday and rest + o:rest>0 and playoffs=0 and line<147

The Blues / Stars game shows up. Here are the stats:

131-86 (0.35, 60.4%)	avg line: 103.6 / -114.0	on / against: +$5,610 / -$6,688	ROI: +23.4% / -25.5%
104-94-19 (0.39, 52.5%)	avg total: 5.5

I just want to make sure I'm reading this correctly. Mainly the on/against. According to the stats is this suggesting to take the Blues at +108 for the +23.4% ROI?

[zxqwpdbg]

probably using multiple accounts/handles that SBR does not allow.
Why was he posting from a different account?

yes seems like it, his original account was different. could not save all of his queries. just a few

that's to bad, i was really excited to see more of his ideas.

[zxqwpdbg]

a couple query's here, going against each other. i tried doing one true/false and one false/true but for either one each game is still showing. how do i make it show the better play?

AD and 10>penalties>5 and streak<4 and p:goals!=3 and 48>p:shots on goal>15 and day!=Sunday and day!=Monday and tS(W, N=5)<4 and 6>o:streak>-3 and p:margin>-4 and 4.5

p:L and P:L and op:L and day != Saturday and day != Sunday and (month = 10 or month = 11 or month = 12 or month = 1) and P:margin = -1 and op:margin != -3 and total <= 6

[emceeaye]

Avalanche ML

Here is one of bases' queries pointing to Avalanche tonight :

pvertime = 1 and p:margin = -1 and day = Tuesday and o:rest<3 and p:goals<3 and line>-255 and 3>o:streak>-4

It helped to narrow down some of the terms to accommodate the situation more closely (e.g., 3>o:streak>-4 changed to o:streak>0)

[escism]

Here is one of bases' queries pointing to Avalanche tonight :

pvertime = 1 and p:margin = -1 and day = Tuesday and o:rest<3 and p:goals<3 and line>-255 and 3>o:streak>-4

It helped to narrow down some of the terms to accommodate the situation more closely (e.g., 3>o:streak>-4 changed to o:streak>0)

Nice! I was curious about that. I didn't have any previous plays that pick the Avs tonight. So I'm gonna add this one.

[emceeaye]

Here is one of bases' queries pointing to Avalanche tonight :

pvertime = 1 and p:margin = -1 and day = Tuesday and o:rest<3 and p:goals<3 and line>-255 and 3>o:streak>-4

It helped to narrow down some of the terms to accommodate the situation more closely (e.g., 3>o:streak>-4 changed to o:streak>0)

mistake

[emceeaye]

a couple query's here, going against each other. i tried doing one true/false and one false/true but for either one each game is still showing. how do i make it show the better play?

AD and 10>penalties>5 and streak<4 and p:goals!=3 and 48>p:shots on goal>15 and day!=Sunday and day!=Monday and tS(W, N=5)<4 and 6>o:streak>-3 and p:margin>-4 and 4.5

p:L and P:L and op:L and day != Saturday and day != Sunday and (month = 10 or month = 11 or month = 12 or month = 1) and P:margin = -1 and op:margin != -3 and total <= 6

when you combine them into the following query, it looks like the blue jackets query trumps the other one, although it is a small sample size:

AD and 10 > penalties > 5 and streak < 4 and p:goals != 3 and 48 > p:shots on goal > 15 and day != Sunday and day != Monday and tS(W, N=5) < 4 and 6 > o:streak > -3 and p:margin > -4 and 4.5 = 4.5 and op:L and oP:L and p:L and day != Saturday and day != Sunday and (month = 10 or month = 11 or month = 12 or month = 1) and oP:margin = -1 and p:margin != -3 and total <= 6

[emceeaye]

Ross situation posted on 1/27/14:

Any NHL odds favorite, versus an opponent that averages 2.8 or more goals per game, and that opponent has seen 7 or more goals scored by both teams combined in each of their last 3-games, has gone 72-23 (75.8%) over the last 5 seasons

SDQL:
F and oA(goals)>=2.8 and op:goals+opo:goals>=7 and opp:goals+oppo:goals>=7 and oppp:goals+opppo:goals>=7 and season>=2010

[escism]

Ross situation posted on 1/27/14:

Any NHL odds favorite, versus an opponent that averages 2.8 or more goals per game, and that opponent has seen 7 or more goals scored by both teams combined in each of their last 3-games, has gone 72-23 (75.8%) over the last 5 seasons

SDQL:
F and oA(goals)>=2.8 and op:goals+opo:goals>=7 and opp:goals+oppo:goals>=7 and oppp:goals+opppo:goals>=7 and season>=2010

I like this one! Love the ROI and the SU %. Hopefully it comes around soon!

How far back have you gone w/ Ross' situations plays? I'd love to start helping you chop the wood on it to knock them out faster.

[escism]

Play against any money line road underdog of between +100 to +200 that comes off 2 or more wins in a row, and both teams in the game have a money line winning percentage of between .400 to .490. By playing against the road underdog you would be 163-69 (70.5%) since the beginning of the 1996-1997 year. (http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nhl-hockey/free-picks/tuesday-nhl-picks-the-day-a-37079/)

Just wanting to double check the query on this:

RD and 100 < line < 200 and streak>=2 and 40 < WP < 49 and 40 < o:WP < 49

[escism]

Any team that’s failed to lose in any of their previous 4-games, and will be playing their 3^rd game in the last 4-days, has gone under the total in 51 of those 72-games (70.8%) since the beginning of the 2009-2010 year

(http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nhl-hockey/free-picks/tuesday-nhl-picks-the-day-a-37079/)

streak>=4 and t:date - p2:date = 3 and season>2009

[zxqwpdbg]

i just sent sportsdatabase the money for the conference parameter! i am very excited for this and can't wait to try it out. i am unsure how long it will take for the info to get uploaded, but i am guessing at least a couple days.

[nash13]

i just sent sportsdatabase the money for the conference parameter! i am very excited for this and can't wait to try it out. i am unsure how long it will take for the info to get uploaded, but i am guessing at least a couple days.

wonderful. i think the conference parameter, will help a lot in combination with rest and opponents rest.

[nash13]

Play against any money line road underdog of between +100 to +200 that comes off 2 or more wins in a row, and both teams in the game have a money line winning percentage of between .400 to .490. By playing against the road underdog you would be 163-69 (70.5%) since the beginning of the 1996-1997 year. (http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nhl-hockey/free-picks/tuesday-nhl-picks-the-day-a-37079/)

Just wanting to double check the query on this:

RD and 100 < line < 200 and streak>=2 and 40 < WP < 49 and 40 < o:WP < 49

i would change RD to AD

[zxqwpdbg]

Play against any money line road underdog of between +100 to +200 that comes off 2 or more wins in a row, and both teams in the game have a money line winning percentage of between .400 to .490. By playing against the road underdog you would be 163-69 (70.5%) since the beginning of the 1996-1997 year. (http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nhl-hockey/free-picks/tuesday-nhl-picks-the-day-a-37079/)

Just wanting to double check the query on this:

RD and 100 < line < 200 and streak>=2 and 40 < WP < 49 and 40 < o:WP < 49

not sure if the "WP" parameter is referring to the money line winning percentage. still looks like a good trend though.

[zxqwpdbg]

wonderful. i think the conference parameter, will help a lot in combination with rest and opponents rest.

just got an email from sportsdatabase. they said they are gonna try to have a beta version of it up today.

[emceeaye]

I like this one! Love the ROI and the SU %. Hopefully it comes around soon!

How far back have you gone w/ Ross' situations plays? I'd love to start helping you chop the wood on it to knock them out faster.

Thanks for the help Escism,
There are really some great ones among his posts. Working backwards, I've gotten to around March of this year...let's get as many as we can.

Thanks again.

[emceeaye]

Play against any money line road underdog of between +100 to +200 that comes off 2 or more wins in a row, and both teams in the game have a money line winning percentage of between .400 to .490. By playing against the road underdog you would be 163-69 (70.5%) since the beginning of the 1996-1997 year. (http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nhl-hockey/free-picks/tuesday-nhl-picks-the-day-a-37079/)

Just wanting to double check the query on this:

RD and 100 < line < 200 and streak>=2 and 40 < WP < 49 and 40 < o:WP < 49

Nice job Escism. Add "game number<=42" to see how it does in the first half of season...it improves WP and ROI but sample size decreases.

[emceeaye]

I'm considering playing Capitals ML tonight based in part on this query:

H and -110 >= line >= -200 and rest = 2 and o:rest >= 3 and total > 5 and month!= 11

Or

HF and line>=-200 and rest=2 and o:rest>=3

What are people's thoughts?

[zxqwpdbg]

I'm considering playing Capitals ML tonight based in part on this query:

H and -110 >= line >= -200 and rest = 2 and o:rest >= 3 and total > 5 and month!= 11

Or

HF and line>=-200 and rest=2 and o:rest>=3

What are people's thoughts?

going with detroit on one of bases query's:

AD and 10>penalties>5 and streak<4 and p:goals!=3 and 48>p:shots on goal>15 and day!=Sunday and day!=Monday and tS(W, N=5)<4 and 6>o:streak>-3 and p:margin>-4 and 4.5

[escism]

I'm considering playing Capitals ML tonight based in part on this query:

H and -110 >= line >= -200 and rest = 2 and o:rest >= 3 and total > 5 and month!= 11

I like this one personally. I removed the month!=11 and changed total=5.5 SU jumped to 76% and ROI looks good. Not sure if I fitted too much to this game though...