NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[Mako-SBR]

Received this in a trend email this week, but when I put it into SDQL the historic performance doesn't match the numbers referenced:

NBA Teams are 37-12 on the road against an opponent that covered by 10+ points against them in their same-season home match earlier.

Anyone have a query that can produce the right record?

[dshaffe4]

Here is what I got. Its only for this season though.

[Mako-SBR]

Not bad, I set it to go a bit futher back (2008+), while tweaking it to show Away Favorites only and it returned a more consistent result that's worth a look.



Have another possible system play from Dr. M that's giving me fits for getting the SDQL query to match properly if someone would like to take a crack at it:

Teams are 12-45 ATS playing at home after coming off two away games. Since last November 16th, teams in this spot are 3-21 ATS.

Closest I've gotten is just the most basic of queries, which is nowhere near "12-45":

[b1slickguy]

Home after two road wins using your date parameter.

[figue]

Home after two road wins using your date parameter.

[figue]

Home after two road wins using your date parameter.

today bulls -2 winner

[figue]

24-4

[b1slickguy]

today bulls -2 winner

[ChicagoCover]

That killersports SDQL is so amazing i'm speechless

[Jago2008]

Ok I've been reviewing/experimenting with this, this evening:

And the parameters initially are a little difficult to understand at first but once you get the syntax down, the information it provides is useful.

[figue]

we have play for tomorrow fade houston

[figue]

washington winner ,now 25-4

[b1slickguy]

washington winner ,now 25-4

They were so close to winning SU, but let HOU snatch the win away.
Good luck.

[JMon]

washington winner ,now 25-4

Hey figue, how's it been? I see you found my disciple, mr. slickguy

[figue]

Hey figue, how's it been? I see you found my disciple, mr. slickguy

all good amigo,your disciple found a very nice trend,do you have others??

[b1slickguy]

Hey figue, how's it been? I see you found my disciple, mr. slickguy

[JMon]

all good amigo,your disciple found a very nice trend,do you have others??

Here's one for tonight...not sure I'm playing it...always play at your own risk..

Play on a team favored no more than 10, revenging a road loss of 20 or more, coming off a loss of 15 or more as a fav.

[Mako-SBR]

A freebie I've been playing with for the lurkers to enjoy...consistent over time and makes logical sense as to why it works if you think about it:

[figue]

Here's one for tonight...not sure I'm playing it...always play at your own risk..

Play on a team favored no more than 10, revenging a road loss of 20 or more, coming off a loss of 15 or more as a fav.

wow amazing record ,lets play it

[figue]

A freebie I've been playing with for the lurkers to enjoy...consistent over time and makes logical sense as to why it works if you think about it:

amigo sorry, english is not my native languaje,what is the angle here ??

[Mako-SBR]

amigo sorry, english is not my native languaje,what is the angle here ??

Basically with that one you're going against the public (and books) overall tendencies by betting on a shitty away dog having a bad season going up against a home favorite that has another game after this one at home (i.e., the home fav is mentally overlooking it off and thinking the match will be an easy pounding, essentially a trap game).

I modded it to eliminate early matchups in the season and late matchups, as the psychology for both of those timeframes is far different than the grind of the mid-season, especially towards the end when a strong team is in the middle of their playoff fight.

Also, you have to watch that the game isn't a TNT game, or a big TV game, because the home fav will definitely show up and pound the dog if there's a national audience watching.

But even with those caveats it's a winner year after year, and it's easy to see why.

Those are the scenarios and systems I enjoy playing, because the filters are minimal and the logic is strong in terms of "why" the results are the way they are. I stay away from the "88% Win ATS, 17-1" systems because the sample size is way too small and the win rate is way too high.

I just want to scrape out 60%, I'm not greedy.

Well maybe a little...

[figue]

Basically with that one you're going against the public (and books) overall tendencies by betting on a shitty away dog having a bad season going up against a home favorite that has another game after this one at home (i.e., the home fav is mentally overlooking it off and thinking the match will be an easy pounding, essentially a trap game).

I modded it to eliminate early matchups in the season and late matchups, as the psychology for both of those timeframes is far different than the grind of the mid-season, especially towards the end when a strong team is in the middle of their playoff fight.

Also, you have to watch that the game isn't a TNT game, or a big TV game, because the home fav will definitely show up and pound the dog if there's a national audience watching.

But even with those caveats it's a winner year after year, and it's easy to see why.

Those are the scenarios and systems I enjoy playing, because the filters are minimal and the logic is strong in terms of "why" the results are the way they are. I stay away from the "88% Win ATS, 17-1" systems because the sample size is way too small and the win rate is way too high.

I just want to scrape out 60%, I'm not greedy.

Well maybe a little...

thanks amigo

[b1slickguy]

Great thread, Mako.
Whole lotta goodness inside.
Good luck.

[figue]

Home after two road wins using your date parameter.

slickguy next play is 20 feb fade thunder ,its a play no matter all rest days ??

[b1slickguy]

slickguy next play is 20 feb fade thunder ,its a play no matter all rest days ??

I'll know on game day, bud. Always have to check for contradiction amongst other saved queries.
Rest is not a filter in the sdql, but an important factor. Good luck.

[JMon]

I'll know on game day, bud. Always have to check for contradiction amongst other saved queries.
Rest is not a filter in the sdql, but an important factor. Good luck.

This thread will be glorious if used correctly. I have over 100 situations. Need any SDQL help, just chime away.

[figue]

This thread will be glorious if used correctly. I have over 100 situations. Need any SDQL help, just chime away.

wow,share some situations with us amigo jmon

[figue]

I'll know on game day, bud. Always have to check for contradiction amongst other saved queries.
Rest is not a filter in the sdql, but an important factor. Good luck.

let me know if its a play please

[b1slickguy]

let me know if its a play please

Have a different system that will produce a play fading the Thunder with 45-16-3 ATS results dating back to the beginning of the 2012 season. Most likely it's a play, but want to see line and total first.

[figue]

Have a different system that will produce a play fading the Thunder with 45-16-3 ATS results dating back to the beginning of the 2012 season. Most likely it's a play, but want to see line and total first.

ok lets wait

[b1slickguy]

This thread will be glorious if used correctly. I have over 100 situations. Need any SDQL help, just chime away.

I chiming in!
Any input with the rest factor were facing the next 3 days?
Even data not exclusive to the sdql in question appreciated.

[b1slickguy]

Here is what I got. Its only for this season though.

Seeing possible play on Knicks. Good luck.

[FortySix]

Hey fellas, new to the forum but thank you for showing me this killersports website. This is exactly what I have been looking for. Agree that tomorrow the Knicks might be a situational play b1slickguy.

[JR007]

killersports daily nba tip sheet is good for totals as well

[Wojo]

I chiming in!
Any input with the rest factor were facing the next 3 days?

I don't have any data to support it, but having 5 or more days off seems like it would have an influence on a lot of situations.