NFL - Situational Plays - SDQL

[Mako-SBR]

Another continuation of what we did in the NBA and MLB threads, this will be the headquarters for pursuing NFL plays using SDQL-based research.

Thanks to everyone who has participated or brainstormed up scenarios and situations for the machine to churn through, as powerful as the database is it doesn't do anything on it's own...and the ideas and unique approaches everyone brings have proven to be great building blocks to make plays with.

I'll start off with a well known nfl play that has done well in the past, away favs coming off a bye:

week=p:week+2 and AF and playoffs=0 and season>2001

48-18-1 (4.19, 72.7%)

Good luck to everybody this season, let's rock it!!

[bignick410]

Hey not sure if you guys use sdql in ncaaf but thought I'd put this up here for football betters using sdql
This situation looks how away favorites do in week 1
week = 1 and AF
ATS: 60-50-3 (2.46, 54.5%) avg line: -9.3

Not bad straight up but if you were to play heavier favorites of 10 or more points
week = 1 and AF and line<=-10
ATS: 24-13-1 (5.59, 64.9%) avg line: -18.3

[dshaffe4]

Away teams playing in pacific time zone in the first month of the season since 2009.

month=9 and A and time zone=P and season>2008

11-22-0 (-5.55, 33.3%)

10-22-1 (-3.71, 31.2%)

15-17-1 (-0.67, 46.9%)

Seahawks it is then!

[bignick410]

Small home favorites week 1

week=1 and HF and line >= -3

ATS: 42-25-8 (2.49, 62.7%)

[BigdaddyQH]

This is a bunch of caca. According to these people, Big Nick has no play with his first theory and is stuck with Baltimore (the only decent play of the bunch), Houston, Tampa Bay, and Arizona with his second theory. Deshaffe4 has Seattle and Arizona. Let's see how this turns out.

[bignick410]

This is a bunch of caca. According to these people, Big Nick has no play with his first theory and is stuck with Baltimore (the only decent play of the bunch), Houston, Tampa Bay, and Arizona with his second theory. Deshaffe4 has Seattle and Arizona. Let's see how this turns out.

The first one was for college football not for NFL and I'm not saying to go blindly bet all those games just that that there may be some value in some of the situation if u already have a lean

[Alex Vaile]

First play: ( Dr.M )

Play Jaguars + 10.5

Sdql:
Sum(playoffs@team,N=2)=1 and week=1 and o:PRSW<=6 and H and season>=2003

More support:

team=Eagles and line <-3 and NDIV and date>=20111001

Eagles 0 and 8 ats in non-divisional games and 2 and 6 su.

[Alex Vaile]

Second play : ( Dr.M )

Play Eagles over straight and in a teaser if possible in a non-division game. 30 and 0 over under in teasers
21-8 straight over unders

Sdql:
team=Eagles and H and NDIV and date>20081001

[Alex Vaile]

Play 3: ( Dr.M )

Play Patriots in a 10 pt teaser on the road and they're 21 and 0 since 2011.

team=Patriots and A and date> 20111101

[Alex Vaile]

Play 4 : ( Dr.M )

Play Tennessee + 3.5

Sdql:

team=Chiefs and HF and n:A and nn:A and date>=20061201

Chiefs 0 and 8 in this spot

[staf]

Ravens/Bengals U43
Buccaneers/Panthers U39

P:season = season -1 and -16 > P:margin > -36

[FlyinAir]

First play: ( Dr.M )

Play Jaguars + 10.5

Sdql:
Sum(playoffs@team,N=2)=1 and week=1 and o:PRSW<=6 and H and season>=2003

Dr. M had a intresting video about this play, but I found something that says the opposite.

SDQL: team=Jaguars and D and surface=artificial and line>10

[emceeaye]

Second play : ( Dr.M )

Play Eagles over straight and in a teaser if possible in a non-division game. 30 and 0 over under in teasers
21-8 straight over unders

Sdql:
team=Eagles and H and NDIV and date>20081001

Hey Alex, can you please explain what a teaser actually is...never played one..if I were to play a teaser on eagles over exactly what would it be labeled as in the book?

Its saying 2-15 10 pts but it'd asking me to pick at least 2 teams...

Thanks in advance.

[FlyinAir]

emceeaye,

What is a NFL Teaser Bet?

A teaser bet is a group of straight bets (two or more) combined into one bet, where each individual line has been shifted to your favour by the number of points of the teaser.
There are three main NFL teasers – 6, 6.5 and 7 point teasers.
In a 6 point NFL teaser the line would be shifted by 6 points in the favour of the bettors play. For example if you wanted to take the Ravens -8, it would be converted into Ravens -2 within a teaser bet. The spread was shifted 6 points (from 8 points down to 2 points). Another example would be if you wanted to play the Chiefs -2.5. In a 6 point teaser the -2.5 line would be changed to Chiefs +3.5.
The same rule is applied for 6.5 and 7 point NFL teasers, except, of course, the line is shifted by either 6.5 or 7 points instead of the 6 points shown in the example above.
NFL teaser bets must include two or more bets “parlayed” (cannot do single teaser bets).
NFL Teaser Example
Here is what a two team 6.5 point NFL teaser bet would look like:
Your selections: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 and Dallas Cowboys -4.5
In a 6.5 point teaser these would then be changed to: Steelers +9.5 and Cowboys -2
In order for you to win the teaser bet both incomes would have to be correct. If one selection was a push the bet is often refunded, but some sportsbooks will count it as a loss


(copy & pasted from another website, not my own writing)

[FlyinAir]

emceeaye,

What is a NFL Teaser Bet?

A teaser bet is a group of straight bets (two or more) combined into one bet, where each individual line has been shifted to your favour by the number of points of the teaser.
There are three main NFL teasers – 6, 6.5 and 7 point teasers.
In a 6 point NFL teaser the line would be shifted by 6 points in the favour of the bettors play. For example if you wanted to take the Ravens -8, it would be converted into Ravens -2 within a teaser bet. The spread was shifted 6 points (from 8 points down to 2 points). Another example would be if you wanted to play the Chiefs -2.5. In a 6 point teaser the -2.5 line would be changed to Chiefs +3.5.
The same rule is applied for 6.5 and 7 point NFL teasers, except, of course, the line is shifted by either 6.5 or 7 points instead of the 6 points shown in the example above.
NFL teaser bets must include two or more bets “parlayed” (cannot do single teaser bets).

NFL Teaser Example
Here is what a two team 6.5 point NFL teaser bet would look like:
Your selections: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 and Dallas Cowboys -4.5
In a 6.5 point teaser these would then be changed to: Steelers +9.5 and Cowboys -2
In order for you to win the teaser bet both incomes would have to be correct. If one selection was a push the bet is often refunded, but some sportsbooks will count it as a loss


(copy & pasted from another website, not my own writing)

[Alex Vaile]

Looks like flyin explained teasers well. Good luck to us all

[Alex Vaile]

This is a bunch of caca. According to these people, Big Nick has no play with his first theory and is stuck with Baltimore (the only decent play of the bunch), Houston, Tampa Bay, and Arizona with his second theory. Deshaffe4 has Seattle and Arizona. Let's see how this turns out.

My experience is we all do better when we keep the comments positive and helpful. We win more when more people share and contribute because they enjoy it and want to help others. Just my opinion. Best of luck to us all!

[Alex Vaile]

Dr. M had a intresting video about this play, but I found something that says the opposite.

SDQL: team=Jaguars and D and surface=artificial and line>10

Also I just saw that Cecil Shorts is now out of the game so this is a no play for me. I have a hard time seeing Jacksonville moving the ball without Shorts. They may end up covering but I'm not gonna play it. Lot's of other games!

[JMon]

Ravens/Bengals U43
Buccaneers/Panthers U39

P:season = season -1 and -16 > P:margin > -36

P:season = season -1 and -16 > P:margin > -36 and game number < 5 and 5 >= line >= -3.5 and total < 48

[JMon]

One may be surprised how teams that won >10 games last year do as a road dog in week one- since 1990!

SDQL: note space after o: and 0 < line

Sum(o: L@team and season)[team and season-1]>10 and 0 < line and week=1 and site=away and total>36.5

2-25-0 (-10.81, 7.4%)
4-21-2 (-6.89, 16.0%)

[emceeaye]

emceeaye,

What is a NFL Teaser Bet?

A teaser bet is a group of straight bets (two or more) combined into one bet, where each individual line has been shifted to your favour by the number of points of the teaser.
There are three main NFL teasers – 6, 6.5 and 7 point teasers.
In a 6 point NFL teaser the line would be shifted by 6 points in the favour of the bettors play. For example if you wanted to take the Ravens -8, it would be converted into Ravens -2 within a teaser bet. The spread was shifted 6 points (from 8 points down to 2 points). Another example would be if you wanted to play the Chiefs -2.5. In a 6 point teaser the -2.5 line would be changed to Chiefs +3.5.
The same rule is applied for 6.5 and 7 point NFL teasers, except, of course, the line is shifted by either 6.5 or 7 points instead of the 6 points shown in the example above.
NFL teaser bets must include two or more bets “parlayed” (cannot do single teaser bets).

NFL Teaser Example
Here is what a two team 6.5 point NFL teaser bet would look like:
Your selections: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 and Dallas Cowboys -4.5
In a 6.5 point teaser these would then be changed to: Steelers +9.5 and Cowboys -2
In order for you to win the teaser bet both incomes would have to be correct. If one selection was a push the bet is often refunded, but some sportsbooks will count it as a loss


(copy & pasted from another website, not my own writing)

FlyinAir,

ah, ok! Thanks for the detailed explanation--very helpful!

[emceeaye]

Raiders don't do well playing on East Coast

team = Raiders and season >= 2002 and A and (o:team = Eagles or o:team = Redskins or o:team = Cowboys or o:team = Giants or o:team = Dolphins or o:team = Jets or o:team = Bills or o:team = Patriots or o:team = Vikings or o:team = Lions or o:team = Packers or o:team = Bears or o:team = Bengals or o:team = Ravens or o:team = Steelers or o:team = Browns)

See how they do SU.

Add or team=Chargers and week<=4 and see what happens to over/under record.

[Alex Vaile]

First play: ( Dr.M )

Play Over 48 -110 Saints vs Browns

team=Browns and oA(o: punts)<=4 and date>=20091122

Note the space between :

[emceeaye]

SDQL for college football today?

Anyone have any good SDQL for college football today besides those that show up at the website under trends?

[JMon]

Anyone have any good SDQL for college football today besides those that show up at the website under trends?

rarely use SDQL for NCAAF, but I do have a few tricks up my sleeve for totals (14-6 YTD and 4-0 today pending) ..shoot me a pm

[staf]

2-0 last week
2-0 overall

Miami Dolphins UNDER 42.5 -103 vs Buffalo Bills

P:season=season-1 and -16>P:margin>-36

[Alex Vaile]

Second and third plays: ( Dr.M )

Play Under 49 -110 Atlanta vs Cincinnati
Play Under 42.5 -110 Dolphins vs Bills

A and p:HW and p:P4>0 and p:M2<0 and pIV and NB and date>20101001

[Alex Vaile]

2 and 2 last week.
2 and 2 overall

[JMon]

2-0 last week
2-0 overall

Miami Dolphins UNDER 42.5 -103 vs Buffalo Bills

P:season=season-1 and -16>P:margin>-36

Have this one too. add

and game number < 5 and 5 >= line >= -3.5 and total < 48

[JMon]

Second and third plays: ( Dr.M )

Play Under 49 -110 Atlanta vs Cincinnati
Play Under 42.5 -110 Dolphins vs Bills

A and p:HW and p:P4>0 and p:M2<0 and pIV and NB and date>20101001

Alex are going to keep track of Dr. M's plays this year?

[JMon]

Play Jax +6

SDQL

Play a revenging road team (Dog or a fav of 4.5 or more) off a road loss against a team off a loss of more than 6

A and P:L and p:AL and op:L and op:margin < -6 and (D or line <= -4.5) and game number<12

[chopperocker]

some week 2 specific,

week=2 and p:AW and line>0

op:W and p:L and HF and week=02 and 20030901<=date

op:W and p:AL and HF and week=02 and 20030901<=date

op:HW and p:AL and HF and week=02 and 20030901<=date

op:AL and p:AL and HF and week=02 and 20030901<=date

[Alex Vaile]

Ya I think I will as NFL sdql seems more complex to me at this point. I don't have anything to offer yet. No Basesloaded magic in here. What do you have for today?

[JMon]

some week 2 specific,

week=2 and p:AW and line>0

op:W and p:L and HF and week=02 and 20030901<=date

op:W and p:AL and HF and week=02 and 20030901<=date

op:HW and p:AL and HF and week=02 and 20030901<=date

op:AL and p:AL and HF and week=02 and 20030901<=date

Thanks for sharing Chopper!

[chopperocker]

week=3 and AD and pp:H and p:H and op:L

20-5-1 ATS