NHL Situational Plays

[emceeaye]

Here are 2 that support the same under that I'm going with today:

(total=5.5 or total=6) and tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and season>=2013 and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday)

tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and season>=2013 and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10

[emceeaye]

i don't understand what "and rest not in [2]" means or "not so good 1.5".

Probably that a puck line bet is not warranted when looking at average margin of victory.

[JMon]

H and -250 < line<-110 and total = 5.5 and p:HW and p:margin >= 3 and -4<=op:margin <= -3

Not active...play under a home fav off a blow out win against an opt off a blowout loss. note space on the line for editing.

[JMon]

i don't understand what "and rest not in [2]" means or "not so good 1.5".

I don't want want the team to have 2 days rest...and I don't think the puckline is a bet longterm..just my opinion of course...cheers.

[zxqwpdbg]

I don't want want the team to have 2 days rest...and I don't think the puckline is a bet longterm..just my opinion of course...cheers.

it shows -1.17. if it was -2.00 would that mean it's a good pl bet?

also check out that query by typing overtime. -3.67u for overtime games. it's not helping at all. so maybe a great regulation bet? or would it not matter because these are all high priced fav's?

[JMon]

it shows -1.17. if it was -2.00 would that mean it's a good pl bet?

also check out that query by typing overtime. -3.67u for overtime games. it's not helping at all. so maybe a great regulation bet? or would it not matter because these are all high priced fav's?

"it shows -1.17. if it was -2.00 would that mean it's a good pl bet?"

Margin of victory and querying the current line/against the average line is the first thing I look at.

Good call on the OT! pvertime=1

[zxqwpdbg]

"it shows -1.17. if it was -2.00 would that mean it's a good pl bet?"

Margin of victory and querying the current line/against the average line is the first thing I look at.

Good call on the OT! pvertime=1

i wasn't talking about the previous games overtime. although that looks hot.

i was looking at the actual games overtime that you would have bet on. most of those games would not have went to overtime and when they do it doesn't help them. thinking that it might be a better regulation play. but i might have to back check it.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Here are 2 that support the same under that I'm going with today:

(total=5.5 or total=6) and tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and season>=2013 and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday)

tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and season>=2013 and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10

So just for kicks I removed the date restriction from the second query.

tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10

We lost some of the 65.4% luster over 81 results (all games are doubled the way the system generates them), but got 58.6% over 471 results. I'm partial to the larger sample size, so I'll throw it up on the spreadsheet in this form unless you object.

[emceeaye]

So just for kicks I removed the date restriction from the second query.

tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10

We lost some of the 65.4% luster over 81 results (all games are doubled the way the system generates them), but got 58.6% over 471 results. I'm partial to the larger sample size, so I'll throw it up on the spreadsheet in this form unless you object.

Anyone is welcome to tweak my queries in any way they want and certainly free to post them in the database. As for the 58.6% over 471 results, obviously that's what I started with to make sure there is a positive general effect over the long haul. However, by itself, a 58% query is not large enough for me to make any wager on regardless of sample size. I noticed that there is a huge effect for date/day/month that increases the WP to a significant degree, so I am going to hold on to the date-specific one.

Either way, I hope you jumped on yesterday's active game from it for the win.

[emceeaye]

So just for kicks I removed the date restriction from the second query.

tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10

We lost some of the 65.4% luster over 81 results (all games are doubled the way the system generates them), but got 58.6% over 471 results. I'm partial to the larger sample size, so I'll throw it up on the spreadsheet in this form unless you object.

As for the duplicates, since every game is duplicated, you lose nothing in terms of win percentage by removing them because the duplicates of losses (overs) is proportional to that of wins (unders)... Ok, I think you're saying that sample size goes down by eliminating duplicates. You're right, but even with the smaller size, there is a very strong effect of day and month that transcends some loss of power from smaller sample size.

[emceeaye]

Ross Benjamin's play today--not bad

H and p:division=po:division and p:margin=-1 and op:division=opo:division and op:W and -100>=line>=-150

[Cutler'sThumb]

As for the duplicates, since every game is duplicated, you lose nothing in terms of win percentage by removing them because the duplicates of losses (overs) is proportional to that of wins (unders)... Ok, I think you're saying that sample size goes down by eliminating duplicates. You're right, but even with the smaller size, there is a very strong effect of day and month that transcends some loss of power from smaller sample size.

So the question really is weather or not this is a "set it and forget it" trend. Bouncing around on spot plays hasn't worked too well for me so far, but I've started to get consistent solid results by following a smaller group of trends with larger samples that show consistent results year in and year out. I'm also mixing in some smaller samples, but they still need to be longer term and the win rate (or ROI for dogs) needs to be significantly higher (JMon has some great gems in this vein).
I like the numbers on this trend, but, since it's your baby, I'm curious what your overall confidence in it is. It performed really well last 5 years, went flat for 3 then did really well again in '06. Imo this trend has a sample size that's large enough to not worry as much about why it works (day/month filters, ect), but maybe you know something I don't.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Several active trends that I really like tonight. First #55 and #41 have 8 plays between them and I have both trends set on automatic.

#61 gives us Capitals +115ish:
rest = o:rest and AD and rest = 1 and (P:AD or P:HF) and WP <= 60 and (130 >= line > 115 or line > 150) and P:rest - oP:rest <= 1 and 5>streak>-7 and o:streak>-5 and p:rest<5 and day!=Tuesday and 6>o:site streak>-3 and on:rest<3

JMon's trend from a few days back gives us Boston/Detroit Under 5 +110:
H and ou streak>=2 and 2.9>=tA(goals)>=2.5 and 2.9>=oA(goals)>=2.5 and 2010<=season

[JMon]

Nice dog worth the risk..57% only two losing years.

H and line>100 and P:L and P:margin<=-2 and p:L and pp:L and p:division=po:division and pp:division=ppo:division

Home dogs revenging a loss of 2 or more off b2b div losses.

[JMon]

Good home fav def team playing off a OT win..

H and -150<=line<=-100 and tA(o:goals)<=2.55 and p:W and pvertime>0 and rest<3

[JMon]

Very streaky, but appears to have a solid base..feel free to work of it, but let me know!

D and streak<=-2 and op:streak<=-3

Fade dog btwn two teams on a bad run

[zxqwpdbg]

Very streaky, but appears to have a solid base..feel free to work of it, but let me know!

D and streak<=-2 and op:streak<=-3

Fade dog btwn two teams on a bad run

this is looking at the opponent's "previous" streak, since you have "op:streak". is that what you wanted? wouldn't two teams on bad runs be "streak" and "o:streak"?

[JMon]

this is looking at the opponent's "previous" streak, since you have "op:streak". is that what you wanted? wouldn't two teams on bad runs be "streak" and "o:streak"?

indeed! ugh.. thanks..z

[zxqwpdbg]

Very streaky, but appears to have a solid base..feel free to work of it, but let me know!

D and streak<=-2 and op:streak<=-3

Fade dog btwn two teams on a bad run

check this, took your idea and added a couple parameters. nice numbers but hit or miss. maybe someone could take it further.

D and streak <= -2 and (o:streak = -2 or o:streak = -1) and P:L and p:goals = 1

[emceeaye]

Very streaky, but appears to have a solid base..feel free to work of it, but let me know!

D and streak<=-2 and op:streak<=-3

Fade dog btwn two teams on a bad run

D and streak<=-2 and op:streak<=-3 and p:goals=1 and day!=Monday and month!=2

D and streak<=-2 and op:streak<=-3 and p:goals=1 and day!=Monday

D and streak<=-1 and op:streak<=-3 and day!=Monday and month!=2 and pp:goals=1

D and streak<=-2 and op:streak<=-3 and 2<=p:goals+pp:goals<=5 and day!=Monday and month!=2 and 2<=op:goals+opp:goals<=5

[emceeaye]

two on same team for today:

p:shots on goal >= 35 and op:goals = 3 and playoffs = 0 and (site = away or (site = home and p:site = away)) and 0 >= rest - o:rest >= -2 and F

H and -100>=line>=-150 and p:margin=-1 and p:division=po:division and op:division=opo:division and op:W

update:just found this one on the other side...
po:goals=0 and p:HW and A and season>=2010 and game number<=42 and p:margin>=2

and this one:
po:goals=0 and p:HW and game number<=42 and WP>50 and season>=2009

no play

[JMon]

Never losing Dog play!!!

A and 200>=line>=100 and day=Tuesday and p:HW and p:margin>=3

I think there may be a good one on Predators??

[emceeaye]

Never losing Dog play!!!

A and 200>=line>=100 and day=Tuesday and p:HW and p:margin>=3

I think there may be a good one on Predators??

Yes, two of them at least... See post above yours post for sdql.

[JMon]

p:HW and p:division = po:division and op:AW and opp:AW and playoffs=0

[emceeaye]

Dog with some support for today

coyotes ml:


(oA(p:goals,N=2)) / (tA(p:shots on goal,N=2))<.09 and line>145 and line<155

rest = o:rest and AD and rest = 1 and (P:AD or P:HF) and WP <= 60 and (130 >= line > 115 or line > 150) and P:rest - oP:rest <= 1

rest = o:rest and AD and rest = 1 and (P:AD or P:HF) and WP <= 60 and (130 >= line > 115 or line > 150) and P:rest - oP:rest <= 1 and 5>streak>-7 and o:streak>-5 and p:rest<5 and day!=Tuesday and 6>o:site streak>-3 and on:rest<3

D and streak>2 and day=Wednesday and season>=2009 and month=12

[zxqwpdbg]

what is the need for the "p:" in front of goals? i thought that "N=2" would refer to the previous two games and you wouldn't need a "p:". what would be the difference in these two query's?

(oA(p:goals,N=2)) / (tA(p:shots on goal,N=2))<.09 and line>145 and line<155

(oA(goals,N=2)) / (tA(shots on goal,N=2))<.09 and line>145 and line<155

[emceeaye]

I think (p:goals, N=2) refers to the goals in previous game and the goals in the game previous to the one before that, whereas (goals, N=2) refers to the goals in the previous two games one right after another.

[JMon]

I think (p:goals, N=2) refers to the goals in previous game and the goals in the game previous to the one before that, whereas (goals, N=2) refers to the goals in the previous two games one right after another.

emc..yes sir. Your ready for some MLB...cause I sure am!!!!

[zxqwpdbg]

I think (p:goals, N=2) refers to the goals in previous game and the goals in the game previous to the one before that, whereas (goals, N=2) refers to the goals in the previous two games one right after another.

emc..yes sir. Your ready for some MLB...cause I sure am!!!!

im sorry guys. i still don't get it. it seems to me that what your explaining is the exact same thing.

[emceeaye]

im sorry guys. i still don't get it. it seems to me that what your explaining is the exact same thing.

This is how I think it works...I'll explain using a hypothetical situation:

X=a game day indicated by the query

pretend today's date is 1/6/14... And pretend that each date below was a date on which the team played a game.

using (p:goals, N=2):

1/2/14
1/3/14:X
1/4/14
1/5/14:X


(goals, N=2)
1/2/14
1/3/14:
1/4/14:X
1/5/14:X

[emceeaye]

emc..yes sir. Your ready for some MLB...cause I sure am!!!!

Yes buddy, me too!! We already have so many good queries that we can apply to MLB right away! And a ton of games in the season on which to optimize our art of SDQL.

[otunj]

Canucks/Kings

team = Canucks and p:A and pp:A and H and playoffs = 0

58-24 (0.91, 70.7%)	avg line: -161.6 / 147.7	on / against: +$2,211 / -$2,538	ROI: +16.5% / -30.1%

team=Kings and p:A and pp:A and A and op:A and opp:A and rest=1 and playoffs=0

3-11 (-1.50, 21.4%) avg line: 131.8 / -143.9 on / against: -$699 / +$609 ROI: -46.9% / +29.2%

I like the sample size on the Canucks query. Accounts for more than 10% of Canucks games since 2006 and ROI is over 10%.

The Kings query is a very low sample size so take it for what it's worth.

[emceeaye]

AD and 0>streak>-3 and o:streak=-1 and 5>op:streak>0 and tS(W, N=3)=1 and 1< oS(W, N=6) < 4 and day!=Monday and day!=Thursday and line > 106

add month=1 and then separately, day=Friday...low N when adding each of those terms separately, but ROI and WP very high.


HF and streak=-1 and o:streak<0 and day!=Monday and (H or rest<2) and (H or o:rest<2) and site streak>-3 and o:site streak!=2 and p:margin>-5 and op:goals<4 and rest + o:rest>0 and game number<75

[JMon]

H and 6.5 >= total >= 5.5 and tA(o:goals) >= 2.85 and p:W and 7 >= p:margin >= 4 and o:rest < 2

[Cutler'sThumb]

H and 6.5 >= total >= 5.5 and tA(o:goals) >= 2.85 and p:W and 7 >= p:margin >= 4 and o:rest < 2

Also supported by this large trend that's been very consistent for me:

total = 5.5 and 14 < p:shots on goal < 32 and playoffs = 0 and day != Thursday and day != Friday and day != Sunday and rest < 4 and o:rest < 4 and rest + o:rest > 0 and 7 > streak > -4 and (game number < 38 or game number > 51) and ou streak < 5 and pu margin > -3 and 4.5 > opu margin > -3 and 43 > op:shots on goal > 19