NHL Situational Plays

[perryhs]

streak<=-2 and p:shots on goal>40 and A

[nash13]

D and streak>3 and p:shots on goal < op:shots on goal

or

D and streak>3 and p:shots on goal < po:shots on goal

sorry my mistake misread the query

[zxqwpdbg]

streak<=-2 and p:shots on goal>40 and A

looks like some new blood in here. welcome. i really like this one you made.

[emceeaye]

Blues/Sharks under

My best bet for today:

H and po:goals <= 2 and ppo:goals <= 2 and op:W and opvertime = 1 and total<6 and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and 2009<=season

po:goals<=2 and H and ppo:goals<=2 and opvertime=1
and op:W and season>=2009

[perryhs]

power play goals>=2 and 1<=p:margin<=3 and HF and (op:O or op:L)

[perryhs]

poower play goals>=2 and p:L and HF and op:L

[perryhs]

p:margin<=-4 and HF and op:L

or

p:assists+5 < po:assists and HF and op:L


also loss big in previous game

[perryhs]

p:margin>=4 and p:total=5

or

p:margin>=4 and p:total=5 and F

[perryhs]

poower play goals=0 and p:short handed goals>=1 and pU

[perryhs]

p:shots on goal +15 < pp:shots on goal and p:H and H

[perryhs]

rest=0 and o:rest>=3 and A and (p:U or op:U)

[JMon]

Possible PL on Lightening

SDQL

line>=200 and tS(L, N=8) >= 6 and 7 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest) = 4 and 2010 <= season

line>=200 and tS(L, N=8)>=6 and 7-(rest+p:rest+pp:rest) = 4 and 2010<=season and team=Sabres

Margin of Victory should noted.

[JMon]

A and 150>=line>105 and tS(W, N=5)=4 and day in [Wednesday, Friday, Saturday] and o:rest<3

[emceeaye]

SDQL

line>=200 and tS(L, N=8) >= 6 and 7 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest) = 4 and 2010 <= season

line>=200 and tS(L, N=8)>=6 and 7-(rest+p:rest+pp:rest) = 4 and 2010<=season and team=Sabres

Margin of Victory should noted.

nice JMon, I like this one a lot. Add that its away and WP of opponent and margin increases:

line>=200 and tS(L, N=8) >= 6 and 7 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest) = 4 and 2010 <= season and A and o:WP>55

[JMon]

nice JMon, I like this one a lot. Add that its away and WP of opponent and margin increases:

line>=200 and tS(L, N=8) >= 6 and 7 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest) = 4 and 2010 <= season and A and o:WP>55

[emceeaye]

A and 150>=line>105 and tS(W, N=5)=4 and day in [Wednesday, Friday, Saturday] and o:rest<3

On that one as well. More support:


H and p:goals <= 2 and pp:goals <= 2 and ppp:goals <= 2 and op:goals >= 4 and opp:goals >= 4 and 2010 <= season and 0 < rest< 3


season>2009 and 0>power play goals - opower play goals>-3 and day!=Tuesday and -4-6 and month!=2 and month!=5 and month!=6 and (A or day!=Sunday) and (215>line>-212 or line>249) and penalties<10 and openalties>1 and p:shots on goal - op:shots on goal<18 and op:shots on goal<43 and p:assists!=5 and 14>op:assists>1 and p:shifts>326 and 83>op:shifts -p:shifts>-75 and po:goals>0 and rest + o:rest<7


season>2009 and 0>power play goals - opower play goals>-3 and day!=Tuesday and -4-6 and month!=2 and month!=5 and month!=6 and (A or day!=Sunday) and (215>line>-212 or line>249) and penalties<10 and openalties>1 and p:shots on goal - op:shots on goal<18

[emceeaye]

Flames ml (or pl) possible play

A and p:shots on goal < po:shots on goal and p:ADW and rest = 0 and day=Friday

A and p:shots on goal < po:shots on goal and p:ADW and rest = 0 and day=Friday and P:L and P:season=season

AD and p:shots on goal < po:shots on goal and p:ADW and rest = 0 and P:margin<-1 and P:season=season

[Cutler'sThumb]

The other side of that Lightning/Sabers game:

playoffs=0 and game number>40 and WP>60 and line<-170

Also, the large trend emceeaye posted above supports the Sabers. Obviously hard to think of Buffalo winning this game, but who know.

[emceeaye]

nice one from Ross Benjamin today...

HF and p:W and p:margin>=3 and tA(period scores[2])-tA(oeriod scores[2])<=-.2

I like this one described by Ross Benjamin for today, but don't like his reasoning about picking the puck line. He uses the average margin of victory only among those that win to justify it (>2.1), but looking at the average of all games indicated by the query, it's less than 2, but above 1.5.

look at past 3 seasons and add the other relevant filters...looks good.

I'm going with ml.

[JMon]

HF and p:W and p:margin>=3 and tA(period scores[2])-tA(oeriod scores[2])<=-.2

I like this one described by Ross Benjamin for today, but don't like his reasoning about picking the puck line. He uses the average margin of victory only among those that win to justify it (>2.1), but looking at the average of all games indicated by the query, it's less than 2, but above 1.5.

look at past 3 seasons and add the other relevant filters...looks good.

I'm going with ml.

That is a solid one for sure...I did see p:margin=4 is not good.

What does this translate too? outscored in the second period by .2 or more??

tA(period scores[2])-tA(oeriod scores[2])<=-.2

[JMon]

I believe goal differential is simply goals scored minus goals allowed. A team is averaging a +.3 or better goal differential on the season

oA(goals-po:goals)>=.3 and opo:goals>=3 and oppo:goals>=3 and opppo:goals>=3 and H and -170<=line<=-120 and game number>40 and 2009<=season

Emc...do you remember this one from way back....lol. It's finally active today...

If you eliminate high favs..

oA(goals-po:goals)>=.3 and opo:goals>=3 and oppo:goals>=3 and opppo:goals>=3 and H and -135 < line<-110 and game number>40 and 2009<=season

[zxqwpdbg]

That is a solid one for sure...I did see p:margin=4 is not good.

What does this translate too? outscored in the second period by .2 or more??

tA(period scores[2])-tA(oeriod scores[2])<=-.2

period scores are [0],[1],[2] for periods 1,2,3. so [2] is referring to period 3, if i am not mistaken.

[emceeaye]

That is a solid one for sure...I did see p:margin=4 is not good.

What does this translate too? outscored in the second period by .2 or more??

tA(period scores[2])-tA(oeriod scores[2])<=-.2

JMon, yeah, it's the strangest thing that something about a margin of victory of 4 in the previous game lowers the chances of winning in this situation so substantially, while a margin of 3 and 5 and 6 show increasing chances of winning as margin increases...could it be by chance due to low enough N? Perhaps something about how a previous margin of 4 systematically is interacting negatively with something else that we can't or are not considering....

Fortunately for us if we go with this query, the margin=3, and results look great with it.

Yeah, period scores [2] is third period.

[emceeaye]

Emc...do you remember this one from way back....lol. It's finally active today...

If you eliminate high favs..

oA(goals-po:goals)>=.3 and opo:goals>=3 and oppo:goals>=3 and opppo:goals>=3 and H and -135 < line<-110 and game number>40 and 2009<=season

OK yeah I remember this one... Looks great as well, and I did see some queries that are consistent with it, and was going to make this a play until I saw a contradicting query...However, this situation appears to be so unique and consistent in outcome, that even despite the low N and conflicting query, I'm inclined to go with it...after all, Nash's summary suggests that even if there is 1 contradiction and 3 in support, that it's still good for a play.

Away from home, and don't have access to the supportive and conflicting queries at the moment... But if Cutler or someone else has them handy, then that would be great.

update:
Here's another in support:

HF and oA(o:goals)<=2.52 and opo:goals>=3 and oppo:goals>=3 and opppo:goals>=3 and season>=2006 and o:rest>=1

and

HF and oA(o:goals)<=2.52 and opo:goals>=3 and oppo:goals>=3 and opppo:goals>=3 and season>=2006 and o:rest>=1 and P:W and P:season=season


Also found one that had a large N (one of Bases' I think) and high ROI and large ranges for the parameters in favor of Pittsburgh:

F and season>=2010 and streak=-1 and o:streak<0 and day!=Monday and (H or rest<2) and (H or o:rest<2) and site streak>-3 and o:site streak!=2 and p:margin>-5 and P:margin>-4 and op:goals<4 and rest + o:rest>0 and game number<75

...but when you tweak one or more of the parameters to match today's situation, you get:

HF and P:AW and P:season=season and p:short handed goals=0 and power play goals=0 and season>=2010 and streak=-1 and o:streak<0 and day!=Monday and (H or rest<2) and (H or o:rest<2) and site streak>-3 and o:site streak!=2 and p:margin>-3 and P:margin>2 and op:goals<4 and rest + o:rest>0 and game number<75

and

HF and p:short handed goals=0 and power play goals=0 and season>=2010 and streak=-1 and o:streak<0 and day!=Monday and (H or rest<2) and (H or o:rest<2) and site streak>0 and o:site streak!=2 and 0>p:margin>-3 and P:margin>2 and op:goals<4 and rest + o:rest>0 and game number<75

[Cutler'sThumb]

Wild +210

Several good trends support the big dog play tonight:

HF and streak=-1 and o:streak<0 and day!=Monday and (H or rest<2) and (H or o:rest<2) and site streak>-3 and o:site streak!=2 and p:margin>-5 and op:goals<4 and rest + o:rest>0 and game number<75

p:L and pp:L and (p:shots on goal)>(po:shots on goal) and (pp:shots on goal)>(ppo:shots on goal) and A

playoffs=0 and game number>40 and WP>60 and line<-170

[emceeaye]

Several good trends support the big dog play tonight:

HF and streak=-1 and o:streak<0 and day!=Monday and (H or rest<2) and (H or o:rest<2) and site streak>-3 and o:site streak!=2 and p:margin>-5 and op:goals<4 and rest + o:rest>0 and game number<75

p:L and pp:L and (p:shots on goal)>(po:shots on goal) and (pp:shots on goal)>(ppo:shots on goal) and A

playoffs=0 and game number>40 and WP>60 and line<-170

Here are some strong ones on hawks:

AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010

A and total=5.5 and streak=-4 and t:date-p7:date<=14

[Cutler'sThumb]

Here are some strong ones on hawks:

AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010

A and total=5.5 and streak=-4 and t:date-p7:date<=14

Looks like you had the right of it. Hawks are rolling.

[Cutler'sThumb]

Several good unders tonight:

H and conference!=o:conference and total>5 and po:goals<3 and ppo:goals>1 and p:goals>0 and 0<pp:goals<5 and ppp:goals>0 and playoffs=0

(day=Monday or day=Tuesday) and total>5 and 10>p:goals + op:goals>3 and H and 7>streak>-4 and o:streak>-3 and (game number>72 or game number<66) and (game number>41 or 3<game number<34)


Also, here's an over that JMon posted a few weeks ago that's active again:

A and p:W and p:margin=1 and p:division=po:division and op:HL and rest<3 and 4>o:rest>0 and total<6.5

[emceeaye]

Several good unders tonight:

H and conference!=o:conference and total>5 and po:goals<3 and ppo:goals>1 and p:goals>0 and 0<pp:goals<5 and ppp:goals>0 and playoffs=0

(day=Monday or day=Tuesday) and total>5 and 10>p:goals + op:goals>3 and H and 7>streak>-4 and o:streak>-3 and (game number>72 or game number<66) and (game number>41 or 3<game number<34)


Also, here's an over that JMon posted a few weeks ago that's active again:

A and p:W and p:margin=1 and p:division=po:division and op:HL and rest<3 and 4>o:rest>0 and total<6.5

Here's one I just put together that supports a few under. However, one of them conflicts with the over predicted in one of the ones you posted.

Basically, this query capitalizes on the fact that under tend to predominate on Mondays. However, note that January isn't the best month for it...

day=Monday and month!=3 and month!=12 and total=5.5 and (rest=2 or o:rest=2)

[Consigliere]

I'm now getting into the NHL betting with SDQL and just have a quick question about betting totals...on Pinnacle you can bet 5, 5.25, 5.5, 5.75 etc for the totals and the price changes..if the trend picks say an UNDER 5.5, on Pinnacle you could bet the U5.25 and get a higher payout....this makes no sense to me why this is offered? It will either be 5 or 6, why do they pay more if you pick U5.25 instead of U5.5??

[nash13]

5.25 means half of your money on Under 5 and the other half on Under 5.5, so to get the full amount, it hast to end in 4 goals or fewer. if it ends at 5 goals, half your money is void.

[Consigliere]

Ok. Makes sense now. Thanks Nash.

[emceeaye]

Here's a super basic one with not a losing WP- or ROI- season since 2008. Nice short-term trend that will very likely end up with +ROI at the end of the month.

WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009

I will go with every one of these games of January.

[zxqwpdbg]

what is the difference between these?

nhl, regular, regular
los angeles
-0.5 -136
ml -265

nhl, ot included, regular
los angeles
-0.5 +144
ml -185

[nash13]

the difference is that in the second choice you win if the kings win in overtime or shoot out. first choice not. our trends here depend on Money Line betting.