Originally posted by nash13
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i thought -0.5 meant in regulation. each one i listed had a -0.5 and a ml selection. why should i take -0.5 for -136 when i can take it for +144?Comment -
i think it means if kings win in a shootout the -0.5 in the OT included would lose. They need to win by 1 after OT. not by penalties.Comment -
Hey guys, been coming here and reading this thread alot. I am not necessarilly a noob as have been betting soccer for awhile, hockey the past 3 months. I would love to understand what everyone is saying here. Can someone explain please. You can use any example I just dont understand the jargon and I cant tell what the picks are either. Thanks guys.Comment -
Here is the SDQL for one of Ross B's described situations for today:
HF and p:W and op:AW and op:division=opo:division and season>=2009
Bet on any home favorite coming off a win against an opponent that is coming off a divisional road win since 2009. The HF percentage of winning increases as the winning percentage of the opponent's last opponent decreases (e.g., opo:WP<45).
add opo:WP<45
looks solid
update: I remember seeing another solid one on them this morning from spreadsheet, but don't have it handy...if anyone has it handy, please post?Comment -
WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009 and o:WP<48 and WP>50 and day!=Friday and day!=Monday
WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009 and o:WP<48 and WP>50 and day!=Friday and day!=Monday and L
WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009 and o:WP<48 and WP>50 and day!=Friday and day!=Monday and L and n:L
WP>=o:WP+20 and H and (month=1) and season>=2009 and o:WP<48 and WP>50 and day!=Friday and day!=Monday and L and n:L and nn:LComment -
Ducks -1.5 +140
Here's the query for one of Ross Benjamin's picks for today:
F and po:goals=0 and p:HW and op:AW and season>=2010
He's saying that rather than go with the overly juiced ML, it's worth taking the ever risky PL...Is he right?
He cites the average goal differential in this situation as justification for a PL pick:1.58.
But what's dangerous about that is that if only a few abnormally high margin of victories occur for the home team, then the average differential gets skewed by those outlier games, thereby producing an inaccurate reflection of what happened and therefore, what is likely to happen...
To get an additional (and perhaps more accurate) index of whether -1.5 is the right pick, look at the number of games every year since 2010 in which margin of victory exceeded 1 goal for that home team out of those games that the home team won:
So, adding W and margin>1 for every year since 2010, we get:
2010: 6/9
2011: 7/9
2012: 9/12
2013: 13/17
2014: 2/3
2010-2014: 37/50 (74%)
Based on this additional evidence, namely that 74% of the home team's wins in this situation were by a margin of more than one goal, I think he's right, that PL is the right pickComment -
ya I wish they would have PL figures in , like MLB but everyone is scrapping them to pieces..so I'm sure the free stuff is going to end.Comment -
A 1.1 margin on <=-200 ?????? and only since 2010Originally posted by emceeayeComment -
it has been free for 6 years now. i hope they don't limit everything.Originally posted by JMonComment -
Ya I now...they have changed the way I cap and have made me money the last three years, when betting is impossible. They deserve to charge and hope they do.Originally posted by nash13Comment -
Originally posted by JMon
Yeah, interesting... Just goes to show that sometimes there are more influential factors than simply how much of a favorite a team is that predicts a larger margin of victory. I believe there's something about the combination of the variables that make up this whole situation that better predicts it.Comment -
Here's a pretty good one to back your's up (doesn't look too good on the PL tho):Originally posted by emceeaye
AD and p:AW and p:division = po:division and op:HW and rest not in [2] and o:rest > 0 and season>=2009Comment -
Many, many solid trends are active today...bol fellas
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pray tell, JMonOriginally posted by JMonMany, many solid trends are active today...bol fellasComment -
i went through about 30-40 trends, not seeing a lot going on tonight. i saw two plays i like but they are on opposite teams. also a couple totals, but i am trying to stay away from them now.Originally posted by JMonMany, many solid trends are active today...bol fellasComment -
Some of the ones he has posted previously are active.Originally posted by emceeaye
Wild/Coyotes Under 5.5:
H and 6.5 >= total >= 5.5 and tA(o:goals) >= 2.85 and p:W and 7 >= p:margin >= 4 and o:rest < 2
Several really strong ones on the Flames/Sharks game, but they are conflicting.
(oA(p:goals,N=2)) / (tA(p:shots on goal,N=2))<.09 and 154>line>145 and rest<3 and o:rest<2
AD and p:AW and p:division = po:division and op:HW and rest not in [2] and o:rest > 0 and season>2009
Emceeaye, here is one that you posted before that supports Sharks:
HF and p:W and op:AW and op:division=opo:division and season>=2009
Two on Sharks, one on Flames. Playing probability, I think Sharks are the best play. JMon's excellent 63-14 trend on Sharks has just lost two in a row; three in a row seems unlikely. His 104-77, 43% ROI trend on Flames has gone 8-1 and is a dog trend...seems like it's time to catch a loss. Plus emceeaye's trend on Sharks is very solid.
BOL to all!
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saw an idea on the net somewhere. can't remember where, but i don't get the exact results they are. i tried some of my own tweaking but no luck, any ideas?
terrible away team after they get shutout. 58-29 - 62%roiComment -
I just added a handful of trends to the spreadsheet. Generally lower volume trends JMon or emceeaye have posted on the thread along the way. I've looked for it and don't think there is redundancy, but it's possible.Comment -
good job cutler, i remove some duplicates and edit formatting.Comment -
Jets ML and PL
AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010
Is PL pick justified? How many of the wins in each year was by a margin of more than 1?
2010: 7/10
2011: 7/9
2012: 5/8
2013: 13/20
2014: 6/10
total from 2010-2014: 38/57=66%
66% of wins for opponent in this query exceeded 1 goal.
picks: Jets ML and PLComment -
Blackhawks ML
WP>o:WP+18 and H and month=1 and season>=2009 and WP>=60
update: Just looked up what happens when it's a double revenge situation, and played stars +1.5 in-game
Regardless of outcome, lesson here is to always look up what happened during same season previous matches.Comment -
Hi, I have completed a ton of research and Im currently in the process of hiring extra researchers, how much are you guys doing? I havent read the thread from the start but Im sure we could exchange ideasOriginally posted by emceeayeComment -
Hi Emf66,Originally posted by Emf66
Welcome. I would definitely consider a lot of what we do here research. Whether it's trying to arrive at as many queries as possible to express as many different variables as possible that influence the outcome of games, or summarizing the performance of those queries, or developing a formula to beat use the queries in a way that will produce the best ROI possible, we are all involved in some aspect of research. While I'm personally planning to analyze these variables using real stats when I have time, right now the available database will have to do...Feel free to look through the SDQL threads, as there is very useful information them. And, of course we would appreciate any ideas you can share--We all like to contribute and help one another here.Comment -
active again todayOriginally posted by emceeaye
Blackhawks ML and PLComment -
Here is what is active for the NHL tonight:
Senators@Rangers
Senators ML:
04,05,09,29,74,76
Penguins@Flyers
Penguins ML:04,05
Flyers ML:30
Wild@Red Wings
Wild ML:04,05,09,74,143
Bruins@Stars
Bruins ML:04,05,09,74
Stars ML:32,40,136,154
Canucks@Lightning
Canucks ML:76
Lightning ML:17,28,136
Under:69,96
Predators@Canadiens
Predators ML:18,38,143
Coyotes@Blackhawks
Coyotes ML:19,30,76,90,93,133
Blackhawks ML:136,152
Under:91
Capitals@Oilers
Capitals ML:136,149Comment -
Thanks Nash!Originally posted by nash13
Just FYI, when I spot checked the queries you listed as active for Hawks/Coyotes game, I noticed that NHL19 and NHL133 were not active...Comment -
NHL 19 isnt active but 133 is.
I will report that bug.Comment -
Oh ok, yeah, it's active, but it's not active on the Coyotes/Hawks game. So another bug in the tool may be that its returning active results but attaching them to the wrong game...Originally posted by nash13Comment -
pOriginally posted by emceeaye
vertime=1 and o:WP>60 and game number>40
hmm for me 133 is active right above flames gameComment -
Hi EMC great I will be in touchOriginally posted by emceeayeComment -
OK I see it now... Weird, works now...Originally posted by nash13pvertime=1 and o:WP>60 and game number>40
hmm for me 133 is active right above flames game
That query and another one of those that you listed support a good counter argument to why Blackhawks ml should be a pick tonight. However, when you tweak them to better match the situation (e.g., the Hawks are coming off two losses in a row in which they were favorites, and that Coyotes are playing away as dogs, the WP differential between the 2 teams) the picture looks a lot different.
AD and pvertime=1 and p:L and o:WP>55 and op:FL and opp:FL and WP<45
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Reported the missing queries bug to the developer team. They fixed it in about an hour.Originally posted by emceeayeOK I see it now... Weird, works now...
That query and another one of those that you listed support a good counter argument to why Coyotes ml is a pick. However, when you tweak them to better match the situation (e.g., the Hawks are coming off two losses in a row in which they were favorites, and that Coyotes are playing away as dogs, the WP differential between the 2 teams) the picture looks a lot different.
AD and pvertime=1 and p:L and o:WP>55 and op:FL and opp:FL and WP<45
Great support so far.Comment -
H and day = Monday and rest < 3 and o:rest < 3 and total > 5 and n:site = home
H and (day = Sunday or day = Monday) and rest < 3 and o:rest < 3 and total > 5 and n:site = home and 15>n:rest>0Comment -
rest>=6 and o:rest>=6 and day=Tuesday and total=5.5
rest>=6 and o:rest>=6 and day=TuesdayComment -
Hmm, this gives a little pause to tonight's card. There are a bunch of non conflicted unders: 66,69,70,72,84,120,131.Originally posted by emceeaye
Two of them are on your trend (Rangers/Islanders and Lightning/Hurricanes).Comment
