Totolover's NCAA RLM

mangina11 · 11-10-10, 04:22 PM

Still looking good

Appears to be moving towards 3 though, keep a close eye on this around gametime folks

BeBrave · 11-10-10, 04:26 PM

100 Years For BG tonight very interesting MAC game

Vinnybagadonuts · 11-10-10, 04:46 PM

Take BG ML. They will win this evening.

Totolover1409 · 11-10-10, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by Vinnybagadonuts

Take BG ML. They will win this evening.

Very convincing..

shawood · 11-10-10, 05:52 PM

well a couple issues with this game... both are bad teams and line has moved only 1 pt i thought we like 1.5 pt movement for rlm

Totolover1409 · 11-10-10, 05:58 PM

Bowling Green +2.5

Won't be here to place the bet on the last min. BOL

QuantumLeap · 11-10-10, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by shawood

well a couple issues with this game... both are bad teams and line has moved only 1 pt i thought we like 1.5 pt movement for rlm

As far as moving only 1 point, notice rule #1 and rule #3:

Rules:
#1 Must be at least 1pt line move to justify RLM
#2 If less that 60% on one side there must be 1.5 pt+ RLM.
#3 Only exception to Rule #2 is if it crosses 3 or 7.
#4 Don't play a game if less than 5,000 bets have been placed on the game.
#5 Don't play games with over 20 pt spread. (Added after reviewing last 4 weeks)

shaggy3000 · 11-10-10, 07:36 PM

hey i was thinking the other day. and i dont know the record for RLM in college but i think it reason last week it wasnt massively successful is because its tough to figure out how much money is coming from Alumni. like south car for example. got blown out last week but had a bunch of money on them. i think it has something to do with the fact that south car has a lot of money. same with teams like Bama and Texas....?

Just a thought....

Strange Design · 11-10-10, 08:08 PM

Let's go BG. Good luck tonight boys and girls.

Strange Design · 11-10-10, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by shaggy3000

hey i was thinking the other day. and i dont know the record for RLM in college but i think it reason last week it wasnt massively successful is because its tough to figure out how much money is coming from Alumni. like south car for example. got blown out last week but had a bunch of money on them. i think it has something to do with the fact that south car has a lot of money. same with teams like Bama and Texas....?

Just a thought....

I think there was some mid-week movement in South Carolina's favor after the announcement that Greg Childs would miss the game. At that point the majority of the bets were already on Arkansas, so when people pounded USC and the line moved naturally, it looked like RLM. I don't think it had to do with overly wealthy alumni...our alums are primarily broke drunken rednecks.

PerfecTrader · 11-10-10, 08:18 PM

soooooooooooooooooooo frikkin pissed I didn't look before pulling the trigger. ****!! This has RLM winner written all over it and I took the Hawks 1H -1 and -2.5 for the game. Based on the % of RLM games I've sided with the last couple weeks, I'm now 210% positive I will lose both bets tonight. Whelp at least I didn't bet too much. Congratz to all you Falcons betters, armchair bet for you as far as I'm concerned. Wish I was with yall, enjoy

dvb02 · 11-10-10, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by Strange Design

I think there was some mid-week movement in South Carolina's favor after the announcement that Greg Childs would miss the game. At that point the majority of the bets were already on Arkansas, so when people pounded USC and the line moved naturally, it looked like RLM. I don't think it had to do with overly wealthy alumni...our alums are primarily broke drunken rednecks.

Totolover1409 · 11-10-10, 10:30 PM

Not lookin so great. The reason I pulled the trigger on this one was, as mentioned before, it crossed the 3 and BG was the home dog.

Figured that was a good enough reason. Still got time. Not over til its over.

Totolover1409 · 11-10-10, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

Bowling Green +2.5 L

Won't be here to place the bet on the last min. BOL

Dunno what to say about that one. That was definitely not an interception. I was telling myself to buy that half point and I didn't.

Sorry guys.

5-4 NCAA RLM

Dogway · 11-10-10, 11:36 PM

Well that sucked. Bowl plus 2.5. Lose by .5. Really?!

Totolover1409 · 11-10-10, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by Dogway

Well that sucked. Bowl plus 2.5. Lose by .5. Really?!

The least I can do for giving you a losing bet.

Dogway · 11-10-10, 11:50 PM

Thanks but It wasn't ur fault. No one twisted my arm. I followed the system. It looked good just didn't work on this game. Uconn tomarrow. If u noticed sharps that got 3.5 won. Oh well.

AlphaOmega · 11-10-10, 11:51 PM

.5 point losses suck big time ...

Niagara Balls · 11-11-10, 01:37 AM

Looked over some numbers tonight of plays to watch for the tomorrow night and the rest of the weekend... I included 1/2 point line movements and games without enough votes yet for tracking purposes.

Format: Team to Play +current odd (Total line movement, Opening line, % public on team)

11/11
RLM

7:30P
Connecticut +5.5 (1, +6.5, 29%)

Fade the Public

8:00P
UAB -2 (21%)

11/12
No plays at the moment.

11/13
RLM

Early Games (12:00P)
Texas Tech +14.5 (1.5, +16, 29%)
Texas +5 (1.5, +6.5, 18%)
Cincinnati U +6 (0.5, +6.5, 16%)
Purdue +12.5 (0.5, +13, 41%)
Vanderbilt +14.5 (0.5, +15, 15%)

Afternoon Games (2:30P – 3:30P)
Kent -1 (4, +3, 29%)
North Carolina +3.5 (2.0, +5.5, 43%)
Rice +4 (1.5, +5.5, 36%)
Wake Forest +18.5 (0.5, +19, 17%)
Georgia +8 (0.5, +8.5, 33%)

Night Games (7:15P – 10:30P)
UNLV +4.5 (2.5, +7, 45%)
Arizona State +4.5 (2, +6.5, 12%)
USC +4 (1.5, +5.5, 47%)
Mississippi St +13 (1, +14, 29%)
Clemson +6.5 (1, +7.5, 46%)
Fresno State +8.5 (1, +9.5, 25%)
California +19.5 (0.5, +20, 10%)

Fade the Public

12:00P
Miami Florida -2.5 (47%)

All numbers come from sportsinsights. Anyone know why there is a 4 point movement in favor of Kent?
Also keeping an eye on Northwester/Iowa... 2.5 pts in favor of Northwester with nearly even action.

jas19illini · 11-11-10, 01:39 AM

glad i bet this game right when it came out on monday, i was lucky and got +3.5.

Totolover1409 · 11-11-10, 02:58 AM

UAB is not RLM. Majority is on East Carolina and the line went from -2.5 to -2 on UAB

pokerwhiz90 · 11-11-10, 07:17 AM

Hopefully we can a "final" list by friday night/saturday morning

DarkNite · 11-11-10, 10:06 AM

BG game lost due to the fog, but system itself is still working. I hope today Uconn will prove it.

ebbearsfb1 · 11-11-10, 10:45 AM

BG game lost due to the fog,

???? cause miami ohio wasn't playing in the fog also?

EXhoosier10 · 11-11-10, 11:26 AM

Just for confirmation, all those "No pLays" last week were because you didn't confirm them and not because they lost?

Strange Design · 11-11-10, 12:20 PM

Where are you guys seeing the opening line for UConn at +6.5? It opened at Pinnacle at 6 and is currently at 5.5, which would make it not pass Rule #1 and thus not a play unless it drops to +5.

GoldenYAK · 11-11-10, 12:24 PM

It opened at bookmaker -6.5. It is hovering around 5.5 to 6 now, considering everyone here is on Pitt I would wait till right before game to make your decision.

Strange Design · 11-11-10, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by GoldenYAK

It opened at bookmaker -6.5. It is hovering around 5.5 to 6 now, considering everyone here is on Pitt I would wait till right before game to make your decision.

Oh, OK thanks. I hadn't looked at the Bookmaker opening line, but even in that case it's back at 6 there now. We'll see what happens as it gets closer to gametime.

Niagara Balls · 11-11-10, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

UAB is not RLM. Majority is on East Carolina and the line went from -2.5 to -2 on UAB

Neither is Miami. I threw in the Fade the Public Dogs system plays as well since they were on my list that I copy and pasted.

GGPLAYER · 11-11-10, 04:23 PM

I'm not liking tonights game. Sort of reminds me of last Friday. Again for me if the lines does not move at least 1.5 points it's a pass. There are enough plays in NCAA that you don't have to force the action.

ebbearsfb1 · 11-11-10, 05:39 PM

local is giving me uconn plus 7.. seems tough to not take them

wacked · 11-11-10, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Strange Design

I think there was some mid-week movement in South Carolina's favor after the announcement that Greg Childs would miss the game. At that point the majority of the bets were already on Arkansas, so when people pounded USC and the line moved naturally, it looked like RLM. I don't think it had to do with overly wealthy alumni...our alums are primarily broke drunken rednecks.

Correct, the line didn't move until after Childs was announced out and it moved 1 pt. It later moved an additional .5
It was not a RLM game, so if people think it was they were wrong to play it to begin with.
A RLM cannot be a true RLM play when a injury or star player is out.

wacked · 11-11-10, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

local is giving me uconn plus 7.. seems tough to not take them

Go for a middle if you can grab -5.5 Pitt

Totolover1409 · 11-11-10, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Just for confirmation, all those "No pLays" last week were because you didn't confirm them and not because they lost?

Are you trying to be a smart ass? Have I ever called my losses "no plays"?

Totolover1409 · 11-11-10, 06:57 PM

Conn moved to +6. Some people think its better to bet before the last twenty mins because the books are trying to hedge it or some crap like that. Not playing Connecticut because of the line movement. I really want to see at least 1-1.5 movement to make it a play. Made some mistakes last week.