Totolover's NCAA RLM

BeBrave · 11-19-10, 02:16 AM

So this "rule" did not carry over to this new thread?

Totolover1409 · 11-19-10, 05:36 AM

Congrats to those who cashed on UNLV. I stayed away.

I will be going to Vegas tomorrow morning (yee) and since I do not own a smartphone, I will not be able to make those last minute plays on Saturday since I won't be able to keep track of those line changes. Thus, I will be posting the "early leans/potential RLM plays" now (Friday morning 2:30am). Be smart and check the line before the game starts.

Early leans for Saturday's games:

Vanderbilt +9 (Line moved from +10.5 to +9 with 87% on Tennessee. Only 4500 bets placed) (Playa-playa, I gotta go against you on this one).

Maryland +3.5 (Line moved from +5.5 to +3.5 with 58% on Florida state and roughly 2500 bets placed)

Duke +10.5 (Line moved from +12.5 to +10.5 with 59% on Georgia Tech and only 1155 bets placed)

Cincinatti -13.5 (Line moved from -11.5 to -13.5 with 71% on Rutgers and only 1500 bets placed)

Michigan +4 (Line moved from +6 to +4 with 85% on Wisconsin and 6000 bets placed)

Rice +8.5 (Line moved from +11 to +8.5 with 66% on East Carolina and only 1100 bets placed)

CAL +6.5 (Line moved from +8 to +6.5 with 76% on Stanford and 4700 bets placed)

Houston U +3.5 (Line moved from +5 to +3.5 with 76% on So Mississippi and only 686 bets placed)

Arkansas State +12 (Line moved from +15.5 to +12 with 67% on Navy and only 852 bets placed)

That's what I see so far. A few things to consider. Most of these, if not all, have VERY VERY low amount of bets so these are subject to change. Also, there were a few .5 to 1 point movements that I did not consider. When the bets come in, those lines will move so keep an eye on that. Best of luck to you all and I will be posting my early leans for the NFL in the NFL thread (big RLM on the Lions as of now)

Make some cash boys

hugh4310 · 11-19-10, 07:27 AM

Thanks man enjoy Vegas!

doublej95 · 11-19-10, 08:37 AM

Enjoy your time in Vegas. You have to get a smartphone, its a gambling must.

balls2wall · 11-19-10, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by PLAYA-PLAYA

If you play "VANDY"---EVERY WEEK------YOU WILL BE IN "THE POOR HOUSE"---------IT'S YOUR MONEY-----PLAY WHAT YOU WANT------MY THOUGHTS------WHEN THERE IS ONE GAME A DAY-----IT CAN BE FIXED------GOOD LUCK GUYS------"REFUSE TO LOSE"

Careful PLAYA, I got scolded and told to start a Vandy sucks thread last week, LOL

I have to agree with playa. I have gone against Vandy for my big play the past two weeks even though one was a RLM for vandy and one was looking like it may be for a while.

I took TN -10 as soon as I saw it for my big play this week. I may be pushing my luck going against candy 3 weeks in a row, but I once again love the matchup.

UT is on an upswing ever since they put Bray behind center as the starter. There is a new atmosphere in the locker room and it is showing on the field. They have their eyes set on winning out and getting a bowl bid. They have been steadily improving all year.

Vandy is still as bad as ever with no hopes of improvement and a lame duck interim coach on his way out. They struggle to put up more than 2 tds per game and their D isn't good enough to hold teams down. Meanwhile UT has scored 50+ in the two games since Bray has been the starter. Those two starts were against bad teams, but Vandy is definitely a bad team as well.

As is the case with most games at vandy, this will be a home game for the visiting team. 95% of the stands will be orange.

With that being said, if it ends up being a RLM play then by all means play it. I am just throwing out a word of caution for those that are selective in the RLM plays they play. Also, I am not sure it will end up being a RLM play. I could see the line start to come back the other way.

I am already locked and loaded on the Vols

BOL

frognose20 · 11-19-10, 12:38 PM

so far michigan is the only play that meets all the requirments and the one team i was planning on betting big against this week.

PLAYA-PLAYA · 11-19-10, 12:57 PM

"TOTO"

-----Thanks for what you do BRO

-------I TOO am playing TENN-------Against VANDY ---again-----BUT----I ---DO HEAR YOU------When ----

AKRON & UNLV

------Are PLAYS and WIN

-------WOW

-----WORST TEAMS IN DIV 2

------HAVE A WONDERFUL TIME IN VEGAS

------"REFUSE TO LOSE"

Mr. Yo · 11-19-10, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by frognose20

so far michigan is the only play that meets all the requirments and the one team i was planning on betting big against this week.

Think I might go big as well against Michigan. Wisconsin has to trounce them right?

QuantumLeap · 11-19-10, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by mangina11

Exactly right, how many "shitty" teams have won money for us, following these rules. North Texas, New Mex, Toledo, UTEP, im sure theres more to the list. Bottom line is, were trying to identify the "sharp" money, sharp people dont only play "good" teams, they know things that the average Joe doesnt know. Regardless of how skilled you think that team is. You guys are missing out on a lot of winners

I think it's ok to eliminate the "horrible" teams who have given up. One could argue that UNLV fits in this category since they've been blown out in a few games this year. However, I looked at their home record and it was 2-3 and they played some decent games at home.

So for those who are eliminating the bad teams, look at the situation which is oftentimes home RLM. The team may be better than their record suggests.

However, there are those teams such as Vandy who continue to have RLM and continue to fail to cover the line. I'm planning on putting together a table of how Vandy has done this year. I'll post it in this thread.

jbatcha21 · 11-19-10, 10:50 PM

Tear it up in Vegas Total.

QuantumLeap · 11-19-10, 10:56 PM

It turns out there were 4 games this season for Vandy that had RLM. One week only had 1 point RLM:

Date Home Road Open Close Home Road w/l
9/18/2010 Mississippi Vanderbilt 13.5 11.5 14 28 w
10/16/2010 Georgia Vanderbilt 16.5 14.0 43 0 l
10/23/2010 Vanderbilt South Carolina 12.5 11.5 7 21 l
10/30/2010 Arkansas Vanderbilt 21.5 19.5 49 14 l

3-1 ATS but 2 were blow outs.

Totolover1409 · 11-19-10, 11:05 PM

I hope you guys make serious dough like I will be at the craps table

mangina11 · 11-20-10, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

I think it's ok to eliminate the "horrible" teams who have given up. One could argue that UNLV fits in this category since they've been blown out in a few games this year. However, I looked at their home record and it was 2-3 and they played some decent games at home. So for those who are eliminating the bad teams, look at the situation which is oftentimes home RLM. The team may be better than their record suggests. However, there are those teams such as Vandy who continue to have RLM and continue to fail to cover the line. I'm planning on putting together a table of how Vandy has done this year. I'll post it in this thread.

What we are trying to do is follow sharp money, sharps know who has given up, who isnt playing anymore, etc.... if you want to cap your own games, then cap your own games, but this is an RLM thread, and RLM has proven to hit around 58%. That is a proven winner. When you start to pick and choose what games out of that system you will play, because you think teams have given up, you are getting rid of your 58% advantage. I know its hard to hit at 58% and win only 8% increase each week, but if you follow the parameters and just play these rules, you will win money this year! Yes Vandy has been RLM multiple times and lost a couple of those times, but they have also won. Im just saying, you are free to do what you want, but who knows, Vandy may cover this week!

pokerwhiz90 · 11-20-10, 05:53 AM

thanks toto!

PLAYA-PLAYA · 11-20-10, 06:08 AM

TOTO-----BET the HARD EIGHT------BETTER THAN BETTING AN O AND 4 VANDY------I'm only picking-------HAVE A GREAT TIME-------SEE YOU SOON ------"REFUSE TO LOSE"

PLAYA-PLAYA · 11-20-10, 06:18 AM

QUANTUM----VANDY is one win three loses-------you said 3--1 ATS ----you mean 1--3-------ATS-----I know----I bet on VANDY against OLE MISS------WON-------AND FADED VANDY against GEORGIA---BLOW OUT-----SOUTH CAROLINA-----CLOSE BUT SOUTH CAROLINA COVERED------- ARKANSAS---ANOTHER BLOWOUT------BET WHAT YOU WANT--------IT's YOUR MONEY-------BUT VANDY IS A NO BET AT BEST-----GOOD LUCK WHATEVER YOU BET-----"REFUSE TO LOSE"

zebo1337 · 11-20-10, 06:20 AM

So, was it a dumb idea that I just backed Michigan PK?

colts · 11-20-10, 06:29 AM

Originally posted by zebo1337

So, was it a dumb idea that I just backed Michigan PK?

Not if you really believe Mich will win the game. I assume you mean Mich ML (+160).

oh_lol · 11-20-10, 06:34 AM

Looking forward to some plays

zebo1337 · 11-20-10, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by colts

Not if you really believe Mich will win the game. I assume you mean Mich ML (+160).

Yeah, sorry. Did mean ML. I believe in a lot :P

Sfritts8 · 11-20-10, 08:25 AM

Mangina's post is the by far the smartest thing in this entire thread.

BigMama · 11-20-10, 08:29 AM

Great day for all

InTheDrink · 11-20-10, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by Sfritts8

Mangina's post is the by far the smartest thing in this entire thread.

Agreed

InTheDrink · 11-20-10, 09:06 AM

Question....

Does anyone happen to have some sort of list or spreadsheet of the RLM plays for the year?

The last couple weeks I've noticed that Non-BCS teams have fared a little better than BCS teams and home teams have done a little better than away teams. I tend to think that since RLM basically fades the public and follows the sharps, this makes some sense. First, there is no way that the public knows Non-BCS teams well enough to bet on them, aside from your Boise's, TCU's, etc. Second, the public never values home field enough and just throws darts at who they think the better team is without factoring the scenario. I'm looking for every edge that might lead us to want to cancel some plays or possibly increase units on other plays.

I have no idea if these trends have repeated over the whole year or if this is just a blip on the radar over the past couple weeks. I would definitely like to look into it.

balls2wall · 11-20-10, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

I hope you guys make serious dough like I will be at the craps table

have a blast totolover

gangeriver · 11-20-10, 09:39 AM

Enjoy Toto! Just curious why sharp bettors have been taking Vanderbilt for weeks? aren't they tired of losing? so interesting
Good Luck everyone!

balls2wall · 11-20-10, 09:58 AM

Ok guys, I will post what I see to get the ball rolling this morning since totolover is probably just now going to bed from partying in vegas last night

I may have missed some, but here is what I see

Vandy 13% from 10.5 to +8.5

MICH 17% from +6 to +4

CAL 24% from +8 to +6.5

TX A&M 24% from +3 to +2

kiknit · 11-20-10, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by balls2wall

Careful PLAYA, I got scolded and told to start a Vandy sucks thread last week, LOL

I have to agree with playa. I have gone against Vandy for my big play the past two weeks even though one was a RLM for vandy and one was looking like it may be for a while.

I took TN -10 as soon as I saw it for my big play this week. I may be pushing my luck going against candy 3 weeks in a row, but I once again love the matchup.

UT is on an upswing ever since they put Bray behind center as the starter. There is a new atmosphere in the locker room and it is showing on the field. They have their eyes set on winning out and getting a bowl bid. They have been steadily improving all year.

Vandy is still as bad as ever with no hopes of improvement and a lame duck interim coach on his way out. They struggle to put up more than 2 tds per game and their D isn't good enough to hold teams down. Meanwhile UT has scored 50+ in the two games since Bray has been the starter. Those two starts were against bad teams, but Vandy is definitely a bad team as well.

As is the case with most games at vandy, this will be a home game for the visiting team. 95% of the stands will be orange.

With that being said, if it ends up being a RLM play then by all means play it. I am just throwing out a word of caution for those that are selective in the RLM plays they play. Also, I am not sure it will end up being a RLM play. I could see the line start to come back the other way.

I am already locked and loaded on the Vols

BOL

I locked on Tenn too. Sometimes the RLM is just a flag for me to check out some games that I might have otherwised passed on, but this one was already on my radar.

Tenn has a rough 3-game stretch where they were outscored 120-48, but their last two have gone in their favor: outscoring their opponents 102-24. QB Bray tosed up almost 650passing yards and 8TDs in 2 those 2 games and their RB Poole has rattled off 836 rushing yards this season. Favorite is 7-0 ATS in Vandy games by 110pts and Vandy is bringing the nations 115th ranked total offense and 106th ranked total Defense.

Gotta thing Tenn can handle them this week. BOL either way!

btfoz · 11-20-10, 10:01 AM

I'm seeing Rice, Michigan and Troy for the early games, no?

btfoz · 11-20-10, 10:04 AM

sorry scratch Rice my bad

balls2wall · 11-20-10, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by kiknit

I locked on Tenn too. Sometimes the RLM is just a flag for me to check out some games that I might have otherwised passed on, but this one was already on my radar.

Tenn has a rough 3-game stretch where they were outscored 120-48, but their last two have gone in their favor: outscoring their opponents 102-24. QB Bray tosed up almost 650passing yards and 8TDs in 2 those 2 games and their RB Poole has rattled off 836 rushing yards this season. Favorite is 7-0 ATS in Vandy games by 110pts and Vandy is bringing the nations 115th ranked total offense and 106th ranked total Defense.

Gotta thing Tenn can handle them this week. BOL either way!

good luck kiknit

I feel good about the play. Let's nail it

balls2wall · 11-20-10, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by btfoz

sorry scratch Rice my bad

yeah, it looks like Rice and Troy are under the 5,000 bet threshold at the moment

PLAYA-PLAYA · 11-20-10, 10:08 AM

Thanks "BALLS"----GOOD LUCK EVERYONE-------"REFUSE TO LOSE"

thebestthereis · 11-20-10, 10:30 AM

line movement in the vandy game suggests that sharp money is on vandy because any joe is taking the other side (ten). problem for me is that vandy has be awful vs sec teams, down right shit. when a line is 9.5 or 9 and it moves down that is a good sign for the dog. i just cannot back vandy vs another sec team. good luck!

jbatcha21 · 11-20-10, 10:31 AM

As of now the early games are:
Michigan 19% 2 pt RLM 12:00 game
Duke 31% 2 pt RLM 1:30 game
Rice 32% 3 pt RLM 1:00 game (Only 4735 bets so far)
Colorado 25% 1 pt RLM 2:10 game (Only 3345 bets so far)
Louisville 32% 1 pt RLM 12:00 game (Only 4217 bets so far)
Troy 36% 2.5 pt RLM 12:20 game (Only 4319 bets so far and over the 20.5 pt spread rule, but heavy movement)