Totolover's NCAA RLM

[Strange Design]

That Akron line is moving like crazy. I seem to remember being screwed by Akron RLM earlier in the year, but will probably play it small if it stays at 9.5.

That's a lot of movement though...has there been any news released about Akron or Miami (OH) that could be artificially shifting the line like that? Weather problems?

[Strange Design]

That Akron line is moving like crazy. I seem to remember being screwed by Akron RLM earlier in the year, but will probably play it small if it stays at 9.5.

That's a lot of movement though...has there been any news released about Akron or Miami (OH) that could be artificially shifting the line like that? Weather problems?

There we go, Miami QB is out for the season:

http://www.oxfordpress.com/oxford-sports/miami-university-redhawks/miami-qb-out-4-6-weeks-alter-grad-to-start-1005566.html

Not sure if that makes Akron worth a play, or if it's just an explanation for why the books moved the line in Akron's favor.

[hugh4310]

Looks like that's why the books moved the line!

[Skyliners2010]

Great stuffs, I'm new and still learning...

[molotov mlss]

akron has gone from +13.5 to +9.5 with 75% on miami of ohio

that could be attributed to the qb injury...also, a few weeks back there was RLM on akron and they closed at about +7, just to lose by over 30 points

[kiknit]

akron has gone from +13.5 to +9.5 with 75% on miami of ohio

that could be attributed to the qb injury...also, a few weeks back there was RLM on akron and they closed at about +7, just to lose by over 30 points

I think ya hit the nail on the head...the move is due do the QB. As much as I like RLM plays I don't think this is one of them. Akron is just a baaad team this year:0-10 SU and giving up almost 40ppg. No play here but if you pull the trigger bol to ya.

[jeeves]

What do you all make of the line movement on the Bowling Green/Toledo game? If you look at the Chart on SportsInsights it looks like a retard with an etch-a-sketch...the game opened at -11, and its been at -12 and -9.5 before ending up at -10.5

[QuantumLeap]

There we go, Miami QB is out for the season:

http://www.oxfordpress.com/oxford-sports/miami-university-redhawks/miami-qb-out-4-6-weeks-alter-grad-to-start-1005566.html

Not sure if that makes Akron worth a play, or if it's just an explanation for why the books moved the line in Akron's favor.

Good info SD. That would explain why the line is at 8.5 now. This is precisely why I like to wait until just before game time to bet or perhaps choose not to bet at all.

[Totolover1409]

There we go, Miami QB is out for the season:

http://www.oxfordpress.com/oxford-sports/miami-university-redhawks/miami-qb-out-4-6-weeks-alter-grad-to-start-1005566.html

Not sure if that makes Akron worth a play, or if it's just an explanation for why the books moved the line in Akron's favor.

Good call. Probably saved some of us some units.

4 point movement. That is unbelievable. I still want to sprinkle like .25x on this one. Just for kicks

[Strange Design]

Yeah 4 pts seemed fishy. Kinda like that Kent State-Army game last Saturday that lost badly.

I'm avoiding Akron tonight, supposedly Miami's backup was a rockstar HS QB who turned down an offer from Ohio State and Akron's offense is just god-awful. But RLM plays rarely seem to make sense on the surface, so good luck to those of you who play it.

[Totolover1409]

Scratch that. Not playing this game.

[ojs69]

214 Akron A = 38.75 0 10
this team has a lower sagarin than most AA teams. It is by far the lowest rated A team. Personally I'd
have a hard time risking anything on this team regardless of points,

[doublej95]

Akron is 0-10 SU, 3-7 ATS
AKR are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games on turf.
AKR are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Some RLM is worth passing on.

[figue]

Akron is 0-10 SU, 3-7 ATS
AKR are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games on turf.
AKR are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Some RLM is worth passing on.

[JFCvsRXB]

I'll be the sucker for everyone and put .5x on the Zips. The line was moving before the QB injury and moved a little more cause of it. Still RLM in my book...

GO AKRON!!

[Strange Design]

Bowling Green is looking like a play using Pinnacle's lines. Opened at +11, down to +9.5 with 72% on Toledo. Can still grab it at +10.5 at Bodog.

[jeeves]

What do you all make of the line movement on the Bowling Green/Toledo game? If you look at the Chart on SportsInsights it looks like a retard with an etch-a-sketch...the game opened at -11, and its been at -12 and -9.5 before ending up at -10.5

Line again at 9.5...any thoughts?

[hugh4310]

I only see .5 line movement so no play as of now for me.

[DeluxeLiner]

Bowling Green +10 is a play

[ebbearsfb1]

figures we don't play akron... and they look half decent

[doublej95]

Yep, but hindsight is 20/20.

[Totolover1409]

I didn't take either of those plays. Workin all day. Akron finally showed up for those who decided to play it.

[Saintsfan1]

Oh well..I really felt good about Bowling Green too.

[BigMama]

Great day for all

[Strange Design]

Yesterday was a weird day for RLM. Didn't play either for the full game but won with both on 2H plays.

Looks like UCLA and UNLV are both just barely outside your system tonight. Only 57% on Washington with a .5-1pt move toward UCLA depending on the book you look at; 72% on Air Force with a .5pt move toward UNLV. Both worth watching as we get closer to gametime.

I hope UCLA ends up meeting the criteria for this system, Washington as 2 point home favorites with Locker playing has trap written all over it.

[kiknit]

Tennessee vs Vandy is headed in the right direction for a play too. Line opened at Tenn(-10.5) and moved to (-9) with 89% on Tenn. Vandy looks to be thr RLM play if it gets enough bets...

[molotov mlss]

as of right now, RLM on UNLV

UNLV line has moved from +20.5 to +19.5 with 72% on air force

only .5 point of movement on UCLA, but it is in the right direction for RLM...wait and see

[BeBrave]

Rule 1 don't bet on sh!tty teams no matter what system you are playing

[Totolover1409]

I don't buy a 1 point movement especially when the spread is somewhere like +20. Too many points and not enough of a convincing point movement. Lay off UNLV

[QuantumLeap]

I didn't take either of those plays. Workin all day. Akron finally showed up for those who decided to play it.

Just wanted to mention that Akron had a 91-yard run in their 1st series of the 2nd half. Otherwise they wouldn't have covered. However, they still played rather close for a winless team. So regardless if they sprung that long run or not I think the RLM was valid for that game.

It just goes to show that winning or losing a bet can hinge on 1 play.

[QuantumLeap]

I'm taking UNLV @ +19.5 at SIA. RLM from -20 to -18 1/2 and Pinnacle has it at -18 1/2 +100 which is the equivalent of -18. There is 66% on Air Force.

[Totolover1409]

Best of luck on UNLV. Didnt take it. May go there for dental school though

[hhsilver]

Rule 1 don't bet on sh!tty teams no matter what system you are playing

I disagree. If you are going to play RLM, you must realize you will be playing a lot of bad teams -- bad teams backed by a low % of the public with line moves that are ... well, reverse. That's the idea of RLM. The beauty of it is you don't have to know anything about the matchup or the relative strengths of the teams.

[mangina11]

I disagree. If you are going to play RLM, you must realize you will be playing a lot of bad teams -- bad teams backed by a low % of the public with line moves that are ... well, reverse. That's the idea of RLM. The beauty of it is you don't have to know anything about the matchup or the relative strengths of the teams.

Exactly right, how many "shitty" teams have won money for us, following these rules. North Texas, New Mex, Toledo, UTEP, im sure theres more to the list. Bottom line is, were trying to identify the "sharp" money, sharp people dont only play "good" teams, they know things that the average Joe doesnt know. Regardless of how skilled you think that team is. You guys are missing out on a lot of winners

[PLAYA-PLAYA]

If you play "VANDY"---EVERY WEEK------YOU WILL BE IN "THE POOR HOUSE"---------IT'S YOUR MONEY-----PLAY WHAT YOU WANT------MY THOUGHTS------WHEN THERE IS ONE GAME A DAY-----IT CAN BE FIXED------GOOD LUCK GUYS------"REFUSE TO LOSE"